H1 2016 Retail MarketBeat is a brief summary of the Retail sector in France (economy, trends in retailer demand, investment, retail property stock, regulatory update).
1. A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
RETAIL PROPERTY
MARKET
France
H1 2016
2. French Retail Property Market | 2
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
After stalling at the end of 2015, household consumption rose by
1% in the first quarter of 2016, the strongest quarterly growth
since 2006. Although attributable to the automobile market,
consumer spending also benefitted from a rebound in purchases
of household goods, which were boosted by the transition to HD
TNT and by spending ahead of the Euro 2016 football
tournament. These factors were less influential in the second
quarter, which is expected to have seen a net slowdown in
consumer spending (+0.2%), due also to a decline in clothing
purchases. The clothing sector was affected by damp springtime
weather and by rapidly changing consumer tastes, as reaffirmed
recently by the difficulties announced by several large French
retailers.
For FY 2016, INSEE forecasts growth in consumer spending
similar to levels seen in 2015. Despite a rebound in energy prices,
consumer prices have remained stable. Household purchasing
power is expected to grow by 1.7 % in 2016 (+1.6% in 2015). The
French have also enjoyed a slight rise in social-security benefits
and salaries, in a context of a gradual recovery in the job market.
Although household confidence slipped slightly in June, French
morale remains strong and in May reached its highest level since
October 2007. The rise in home sales and mortgages hint at
recovery in the residential market. If confirmed, this recovery
could encourage greater spending for household goods. The
furniture sector would benefit the most.
While it is too early to measure the effects of the Brexit on the
French economy, several other factors will slow consumer
spending: deterioration in labor relations, the slowness of job-
market recovery, and above all the latest terrorist attack (Nice on
July 14). The Euro 2016 football tournament may have provided
protection against a decline in international visitor numbers, but
this latest attack and the extension of the state of emergency will
have a significant impact on the summer tourist season just as the
provinces are starting to get over last year’s attacks. The Paris
market has been permanently hurt by a decline in spending by
tourists. Between November 2015 and April 2016, Paris lost two
million overnight stays by foreign visitors.
Economic indicators (%)
2015 2016F
GDP growth 1.2 1.4
Consumer prices 0.1 0.2
Unemployment rate¹ 10.3 10.1
Household consumption 1.5 1.6
Source: Banque de France, INSEE / F: forecast. ¹All of France, % of active population.
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
3. THE LETTINGS MARKET
General trends
Even though household consumption remains positive, retailer
cautiousness—the result of numerous uncertainties—continues to
weigh on the French retail property market. Causes do not always
have consistent effects. Retailer performances and growth rates
sometimes vary significantly in relation to retail formats, business
sectors, and store locations. Markets that are highly dependent on
an international clientele (e.g., Paris department stores and
retailers on prime high streets) are also highly affected by the
threat of terrorism.
The gap between prime and secondary assets is not the only
performance indicator, but it remains a key element in the French
retail market. Retailers continue to streamline their store networks
and retain only the busiest and most profitable sites. Relocations
favor major thoroughfares, the largest shopping centers, and the
most recent retail parks, always with an eye on a substantial
catchment area. New international retailers focus on the most
visible locations that also provide publicity. For its flagship store,
Five Guys opted for 1,150 m² on the Champs-Élysées. In an
unusual development strategy, Tesla is using the largest shopping
centers (e.g., Parly 2) to promote its automobiles.
These two examples do not conceal the fact that the number of
newcomers is relatively small. However, this has been
compensated for by sustained and more diverse demand from
players in a wide range of sectors. While numerous international
retailers continue to expand (Action, Primark, Tiger, Rituals, etc.),
the rapid development of franchises, both in city centers and on
the outskirts, increases the number of sales points opened.
Renewed efforts and fresh cash inflows have given some retailers
the tools needed to jumpstart growth (Fly, Cacharel, etc.). Finally,
new trends in consumption bring in new business more than ever.
Pure internet players (Spartoo, Made.com, Etsy, etc.) continue to
open stores and showrooms, while more traditional retailers test
concepts designed to attract new customers (Gifi on rue d’Alésia
in Paris, etc.).
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
French Retail Property Market | 3
5. Openings of luxury stores in Paris in 2016
Rue Saint-
Honoré
25%
Faubourg
Saint-
Honoré
14%
Vendôme/
Paix
14%
Avenue
Montaigne
12%
Saint-
Germain-
des-Prés
10%
Le Marais
6%
Other
19%
High Streets
Paris
Hotel occupancy rates fell in the first quarter of 2016. The
decline in Japanese (‒53%), Russian (‒39%), and Chinese
(‒0.4%) hotel occupancy rates reflects the challenges that now
pervade Paris tourism. Nevertheless, major projects continue on
several of Paris’s most prestigious high streets—especially the
Champs-Élysées, where retailers are taking advantage of the
influx of significant supply. In addition to Galeries Lafayette,
expected at the end of 2018 at no. 52, two newcomers have
recently confirmed their arrival on the Champs-Élysées: Skägen
at no. 142 and Five Guys at no. 49-51, in addition to the
extension of Nike at no. 65, replacing Tommy Hilfiger. Other
deals are under way for openings on "the most beautiful avenue
in the world," which may very well have taken on another image
in just a few years.
On the other hand, the transformation of rue Saint-Honoré
remains coherent. The street’s luxury positioning will soon be
further enhanced with the arrival of Fendi, Stella McCartney,
Brioni, and Paul Smith. Le Marais also seems to have emerged
unscathed by retailers’ reluctance to act. In early July, BHV
opened for business on a Sunday, its first under the Macron law.
After John Galliano, other new stores affirm that the
neighborhood remains a prime target for upscale men’s fashion,
including brands already present in some of Paris’s most
beautiful neighborhoods (Crockett & Jones, Weston).
Provinces
Toulouse, Lyon, and Bordeaux remain prime targets for both
upscale and mass-market retailers (Uniqlo on rue de la Porte
Dijeaux). The prime value of some of these cities’ leading
thoroughfares are still trending upwards. In other major cities,
sales of large properties facilitate the relocation of retailers, who
are thereby able to increase their sales points and have a
showcase better suited to their needs. In Lille, Nike and Mango
(rue Neuve et rue de Béthune) have flagship projects, and the
Happy Chic group intends to place its Brice and Bizzbee
retailers there. These development projects are in addition to
the numerous deals seen recently for smaller stores in the
historic part of Lille (rue Esquermoise, rue Lepelletier, rue Basse,
etc.). Some smaller French cities are also thriving. In Cannes,
several international retailers have opened on rue d’Antibes and
rue du Commandant André (Harmont & Blaine, Bialetti, Zara,
etc.), and luxury brands have opened on the Croisette (Dior,
Loro Piana).
Prime rental values (€/m²/year ZA)
High Streets H1 2015 H1 2016
Paris | Avenue des Champs-Élysées 18,000 18,000
Paris | Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré 11,000 13,000
Paris | Boulevard Saint-Germain 6,500 6,500
Paris | Boulevard Haussmann 8,000 8,000
Paris | Rue des Francs-Bourgeois 4,500 4,500
Paris | Rue de Rivoli 3,500 3,500
Bordeaux | Rue Sainte-Catherine 2,200 2,400
Cannes | Boulevard de la Croisette 8,000 8,000
Lille | Rue de Béthune 2,000 1,800
Lyon | Rue de la République 2,400 2,400
Marseille | Rue Saint-Ferréol 1,800 1,600
Strasbourg | Rue des Grandes Arcades 2,000 1,800
Nice | Avenue Jean Médecin 2,200 2,200
Toulouse | Rue d’Alsace-Lorraine 2,000 2,000
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
French Retail Property Market | 5
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
NB: the various types of openings include creations of new stores, reopenings after
refurbishment, store relocations and extensions, pop-up stores, and retailer name
changes.
6. Shopping centers
In the first half of 2016, the French shopping-center market
again saw several large openings and development projects.
Among the largest projects were flagships for major fashion
retailers: H&M in Jas de Bouffan in Aix-en-Provence, and Zara in
the Bab 2 extension in Anglet. Primark and Uniqlo, two retailers
very well known in France but with undeveloped networks, have
decided to pick up the pace. Primark plans to open in Evry 2 and
Euralille, while Uniqlo will open in Cap 3000, Rosny 2, and
Leclerc Blagnac. In other business segments and with smaller
stores, several young retailers have continued to expand
(Sostrene Grene, Paprika, Punt Roma, Steak n’ Shake, etc.). At
the same time, new concepts have been publicized (Orange
Smart Store, Flunch Café, Zing Pop Culture, etc.) and several
international retailers (OVS and As Adventure) have resumed
their development.
Steady activity in this segment of the market should not mask
the larger problems felt throughout the French market. The
wait-and-see attitude of retailers continues to curb business
activity. Retailers are nervous because of uncertainties related to
the economic and political environment, and because of
problems in certain sectors (e.g., clothing). Some retailers are
dialing back their ambitions, a change that could render less
attractive the sites most at risk, such as recently opened
shopping centers and projects currently under development.
But it is mainly retailers’ cost-cutting strategies that are
speeding closings and relocations, which large acquisitions will
further intensify (e.g., the merger of Darty and FNAC).
While the largest shopping centers remain above the fray,
longer leases and competition among sites encourage landlords
to lower vacancy rates and to make concessions to retailers. As
a result, rental values decline and incentives are more frequently
offered, though mainly for recent projects, intermediate-size
shopping centers, and hypermarket galleries.
Prime rental values (€/m²/year), H1 2016
Type Ile-de-France Provinces
Regional shopping center* 2,000 1,400
Large shopping center* 950 700
CNIT | La Défense (92)
Footfall Index for Shopping Centers in
2015-2016
-6,00%
-5,00%
-4,00%
-3,00%
-2,00%
-1,00%
0,00%
1,00%
2,00%
3,00%
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
2015 2016
Source: CNCC / Data from a panel of 154 shopping centers.
French Retail Property Market | 6
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
*For 150 m² of well-located retail space (clothing retailers or services) in existing
shopping centers that are leaders in their catchment areas.
7. Retail parks
Trends in sales of specialized retailers and their distribution by
type of property reaffirm the success of retail parks. According to
Procos (French federation of specialized retailers), sales in
peripheral zones have shown annual growth of 1.2% over the first
five months of 2016. Sales growth for medium-size and large
stores was even higher (1.8% for the same period), in contrast
with a 2.6% decline of sales on high streets. The revival of the
residential market and the rebound of sales of household goods—
a sector long dominant in peripheral zones—provide more good
news for the retail-park market. Furniture sales over the first four
months of 2016 reached 5.8%, the best performance since 2011.
Trends for other sectors (e.g., cars, household appliances, DIY)
have also been positive. The positive economic environment and
the success of franchises are in addition to the creations and
extensions of numerous French retailers (Leroy-Merlin, Darty,
Truffaut, Intersport, Zodio, etc.) as well as the renewed
development of other retailers (Mobalpa). Newcomers from
outside France remain relatively rare. However, a few foreign
retailers have arrived on the scene (Lola & Liza in Ma Petite
Madelaine, L’Atoll, Waves, etc.). Also, the Dutch discount chain
Action is rapidly creating a network in France, while Costco has
confirmed its first opening ever in France, in Villebon-sur-Yvette
in 2017.
Retail parks also benefit from more structural changes, especially
with regard to the increasing number of disposals and relocations
of stores that have missed profitability targets or cannot be
deployed for new concepts more in line with consumer
expectations. Indeed, retail parks are relatively immune to cost
cutting. Occupancy costs for retail parks are much lower than for
shopping centers and high streets in France. Yet retail parks offer
more than affordable rental values. Tenants of retail parks save at
least 50% in expenses, compared to expenses for shopping
centers.
This top-down analysis should not conceal the fact that the
market is increasingly concentrated. Retailers target prime
locations and contribute mainly to already established zones (La
Croix Blanche in the Paris region, Plan de Campagne near
Marseille, etc.) and to the lettings of next-generation retail parks.
Elsewhere, relocations are rising overall, adding to economic
difficulties and retailer closings. This explains the rise in vacancy
rates of second-tier sites and the net decline in rental values.
Prime rental values (€/m²/year), H1 2016
Area Ile-de-France Provinces
0-300 m² 230-250 200-230
300-500 m² 200-230 180-200
500-1,000 m² 180-200 150-160
1,000-2,500 m² 140-170 120-130
> 2,500 m² 100-130 80-100
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
Gifi store
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
French Retail Property Market | 7
8. Prime yields
2.75%
4.00%
5.00%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
20052006200720082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
H1
High streets
Regional shopping centers
Retail parks (Ile-de-France)
Investment in French retail properties
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
2.3
4.8
1.2
1.9
3.6 3.3
3.6
4.0
7.7
5.2
1.9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
H1
Investment in retail properties (€ billions)
Share in total investments (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
THE INVESTMENT MARKET
At €1.9 billion (unchanged year on year), investment in
retail properties accounted for 23% of total investment in
the French commercial-property market in the first half
of 2016. Investments were boosted in the second quarter
of 2016 by the finalization of several large deals, such as
the sale of 65‒67 Champs-Élysées for nearly €500
million.
This transaction is the year’s largest so far. It has not only
revealed investor enthusiasm for Paris’s most beautiful
assets, but has also served to inflate the share of foreign
investors, which accounted for 57% of total retail
investment in France in the first half of 2016. Foreign
investors comprise mainly North Americans (ARES
Management, CarVal Investors) and Europeans (Meyer
Bergman, AG Real Estate, Pontegadea). French investors
were very active in first quarter but slowed in the second
(43% of total investment in the first half of 2016).
Despite a shortage of prime assets, the share of sums
invested on the high streets has risen sharply since the
beginning of the year (48% in the first half of 2016,
compared with 29% in the first quarter) because of the
sale of 65‒67 Champs-Élysées. Investors remain more
generally focused on France’s prime thoroughfares (e.g.,
Amundi’s acquisitions of the Hema and H&M stores on
rue du Sauvage in Mulhouse).
After a vigorous first quarter, sales of retail parks did not
exceed €40 million in the second quarter. However, two
portfolios also changed hands, including the sale to
Pierre 1er Gestion / Groupe Bertrand of the premises of 14
Burger King restaurants. Although this segment has
accounted for 29% of all retail deals since the beginning
of 2016, it is subject to intense investor caution. The
share of shopping centers and galleries is small (12%)
because of a limited number of deals. However, this
weakness is not expected to last. Grosvenor has put
several assets on the market, and Orion is selling the
Domus shopping center in Rosny-sous-Bois.
At €1.1 billion (+33% year on year), transactions in Île-de-
France accounted for 58% of total retail investment in
France. Investment was boosted by the sale of 65‒67
Champs-Élysées to a Middle Eastern investor,
confirmation that the Paris region remains the leading
market for foreign investors (70% of foreign investment
is in the Paris region). Only €800 million was invested in
the provinces (‒34% year on year), where shopping
centers continued to decline. Of total transactions in the
provinces, 37% were for assets in peripheral zones and
31% were for factory outlets.
French Retail Property Market | 8
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016
10. REGULATORY UPDATE
Update on the implementation of the Macron law
The first meeting of the Observatory of Trade and Commerce in
International Tourist Zones (ITZ) was held at Bercy on June 21,
2016. The purpose of the meeting was to assess the new law
governing store hours on Sundays. The meeting also allowed the
government to reassess the ITZ. Nearly one year after the
creation of ITZ through the Macron law, several collective
agreements have been reached. After the agreement governing
the Jewelry, Precious Metals, and Gifts branch, signed at the
beginning of 2016, the French Federation for Clothing, Prêt-à-
Porter, and Fashion Designers reached an agreement with unions.
That agreement was signed last April. Chanel, Chloé, Christian
Dior, Givenchy, and Yves Saint-Laurent were among the larger
brands involved in the agreement.
While several retailers can now apply the new law (Darty, Etam,
Nature et Découvertes, L’Occitane, Tati, SMCP and Inditex
groups, etc.), others are still in negotiation (e.g., FNAC, whose
negotiations were blocked by three unions last June).
Department stores continue to advance unequally. BHV was the
first to benefit from Sunday openings, Galeries Lafayette may be
able to open Sundays by the end of 2016, and the management of
Printemps has presented employees with its first propositions.
Printemps hopes to be open seven days a week by the fall.
Labor law and franchise
Adopted last July only by application of Article 49-3 (by which a
bill is pushed through by the executive branch without a vote by
the assembly), the “El Khomri” labor law includes an amendment
that provides for negotiation within franchise networks. Parties to
the negotiation are the franchise, franchised outlets, and elected
employees. Although initially rejected by the Senate committee
on social affairs, this amendment (Article 29 bis A) was reinstated
by the National Assembly. The law now applies to franchise
networks of at least 300 employees (including the franchise and
the franchised outlets), compared with 50 in the first draft of the
bill.
Several representatives from the franchise industry are
vehemently opposed to this amendment, which they claim
jeopardizes the principle of legal independence between the
franchise and the franchised outlets. Industry representatives
believe that the law will curb the growth of a business model
whose strength is attributable to its considerable flexibility.
Macron law | Calendar for implementation
of the reform
August 2015
• Evening openings of retailers on the Champs-
Élysées
• Full opening of the Marais ITZ
November / December 2015
• Continuous opening of bd Haussmann and other
department stores during the holiday period
August 2015 / May 2016
• Opening of shopping centers Beaugrenelle, Bercy
Village, and Val d’Europe in the Paris region, and
Polygone Riviera and Nice Etoile in the provinces
April 2016
• Opening of Forum des Halles in Paris
July 2016
• Opening of BHV in Paris as part of ITZ
September 2016
• Opening of rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré
Fall 2016
• Gradual opening of avenue Montaigne and place
Vendôme
Source: Ministry of the Economy, Industry, and Digital Sector, June 2016.
French Retail Property Market | 10
RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET
France | H1 2016