by Paolo Bragatto INAIL – Ricerca, Certificazione e Verifica - Centro Ricerca

1. Paolo Bragatto
INAIL – Ricerca, Certificazione e Verifica
Centro Ricerca
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
New Models and New
Technologies for an Integrated
Risk Management in Complex
Environments
Monteporzio Catone (RM) ITALIA
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2. • Why the Workers Compensation Authority in this
conference?
• INAIL is not just compensation but a global protection
system for all workers in Italy. INAIL objectives include
also the rehabilitation of work accident victims, the
reduction of accident at works, …..
• Research Certification Area is in charge of
• research on prevention and safety at work,
• control and verification of work equipment,
installations and establishments.
• The Safety of major industrial plants and infrastructures,
involve both workers (employed, contractors) and local
communities, as well as land and environment. Safety
issues cannot be “cut with a knife”!
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
A very short introduction
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3. Summary
• How and why the concepts of risks (and safety) are
changing
• May Science and technologies make our communities
safer?
• From Fundamentals to Practice (a few examples from
INAIL research area)
• Suggestions for Practitioners and Regulators
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
• Safety and Risk in modern Industries
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4. • SAFETY or RISK?
• Since the birth of industry, SAFETY was a keyword (e.g.
the first code for pressure equipment safe design and
operation in UK in 1854).
• Typical command & control approach – safety based.
For each sector codes and rules addressing design,
construction and service phases. Public Inspector bodies
to enforce regulations.
• Stregth of C&C approach: effective, complete, objective
• Weakness of C&C approach: rigid, separate, inadequate
both for complex systems (with interferences) and for
very dynamic (fast growing) industries
• Operators’ responsibility: compliance with codes, rules
and regulations
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Fundamentals: Safety
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5. • In industries, the word RISK entered just with nuclear
power plant, 1950/60.
• A few severe chemical accidents (Seveso, Flixborough)
in the 70s demonstrated the C&C Safety Based
approach inadequate for major accident hazard.
• Integrated approach. Equipment & plant safety with
human & organizational system, land use planning, …
• Operators must manage risks in an integrated and
dynamic way, following essential safety requirements,
adopting management systems
Flixborough (UK)
Giugno 1974
Beek (NL)
Novembre 1975
Seveso (I)
Luglio 1976
Bhopal (India)
Dicembre 1984
Basel (CH)
Novembre 1986
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
From Safety to Risk
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6. • The risk management approach in EU Directives for
Major Accident Control
• Seveso I 1985, Seveso II 1996,
• Seveso II Amendement 2003, Seveso III 2012.
• Seveso Keystones:
Mandatory Safety Management System
Audit program organized by Competent Authorities
Shared Knowledge About Accident
Integration with Land Use Planning
Baia Mare (RO)
Jan 2000
Enschede (NL)
May 2000
Toulouse (F)
Sep. 2001
Buncefield (UK)
Dec. 2005
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk Management in Major Accident Hazard
6/14
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7. • Risk Assessment shyly entered Occupational Safety
legislation with EU Directive 89/391, implemented in
D.Lgs 626/94 on occupational Safety & Health
• In Italy the “revolution” with D.Lgs 81/08, which stressed
“risk assessment documents”.
• Furthermore Safety Management Systems are highly
promoted. (premium discounts, incentives, responsibility
exemption..)
No more deaths
at work!
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk Management in Occupational Safety
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8. Traditional Risk definition
ISO GUIDE 51 Safety ed. 1999
Corollaries:
• Risk is a number
• Phenomenon has to be well known, so both severity
and likelihood may be evaluated in a quantitative way.
• Thresholds for Risk acceptability
• Inherent safety is an Utopia
• Risk Separation (e.g. Occupational, Major Accident,
Natural)
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk =
probability of occurrence of harm x severity of that harm
8/14
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9. Societal Risk in a Nutshell
FN Curves
10-3
10-4
10-7
10-6
Risk Map
10-8
Equipment
Reliability
10-9
Weather
Database
10-5
Frequencies
Impact
Scenarios
Expected
Accident
Math. Models
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Popolation
Database
1
10
100
1000
Number of Fatalities
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10. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
In the 80’s Pioneer studies on Area
Risks, aimed to address decisions
about new installations, based on
Societal Risk and FN curves
approach. After these studies major
European Industrial areas has been
well managed until today.
Ravenna
IT 1987
Rijmond NL
1980
Canvey Island
UK 1978
Risk Based Approach: Success Stories
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11. Safety (Occupational,
Industrial, Transport) and
Security may be definitely
separate?
Inherent Safety, why not?
9/11/2001
Concequences of financial
actions are known?
Just Probability to measure
Uncertainty ?
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Epochal Disasters
9/17/2011 11/14
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12. Thailand
Nov. 2011
Flooded
Automotive
District
Spain
Sept. 2013
Santiago
High Speed
Train
USA
April 2010
Deepwater
Offshore
Disaster
Russia
February 2013
Cheliabinsk
Meteorite
Disaster
Japan
Heartquacke
+Tsunami +
Nuclear
April 2011
Italy
Viareggio
LPG Train
Accident
July 2009
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Very recent Disasters
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13. Jan. 2012
Tresana
Gas
pipiline
May 2013
Genoa
Jolly Nero
Cargo Ship
Tragedy
Jan. 2012
Costa
Concordia
Disaster
July 2013
Pescara
Fireworks
Factory
Disaster
May 2012
Emilia
Harthquacke
Feb. 2012
Italy
Big Snow
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Very recent Disasters
13/14
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14. KK – UU model
Safety
• Awareness - Conscious Competence
• Unknown Known Risks
Aleatory Uncertainties
• Lack of information - Awareness
• Known Unknown Risks
Epistemic Uncertainties
• Lack of Knowledge
• Unknown Unknown Risks
• Lack of Awareness
The Black Swan
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
• Known Known Risks
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15. Risk =
effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objective
ISO GUIDE 73 Risk Management Vocabulary 2009
ISO 31000 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines 2009
ISO 31010 Risk Management Risk Assesment Technicques 2009
Coming soon …
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
ISO 31000 Risk definition
ISO 31014 Risk Management Guidance for implementation of ISO 31000
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16. Risk Management at Industrial Plant
objectives
Satisfy users
& shareholders
Safe working
ambient
Positive perception
by local community
uncertainties
Unplanned
Interruption
Injury at work
Major
Accident
matter
Equipment
Reliability
Occupational
Safety
Industrial
Safety
Activity
Legislation
Equipment
control
Equipment
verification
D.Lgs 81/2008
Safety Report +
Safety Audits
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk = effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objective
Dir. 96/82/CE
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17. D.Lgs 81/2008
Dir. 96/82/CE
Integrated
Equipment
control
Management
Equipment
verification
Art 71 D.Lgs 81/08
DM 11/4/11
(INAIL, ASL, + soggetti abilitati )
System
Safety Report +
Safety Audits
Authorization
Safety Report
Periodical Audit
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Plant Integrated Management System
(VVF,ARPA,INAIL)
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18. Systems
safety
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Land & Environment
Citizen Safety & Health
mngmnt
Occupational Safety & Health
Health Structure – Patient Safety
Mobility
Power & Process Industry
Infrastructures
Grid
Goods Transport
Trade & Logistic
Internet - Cyber Space
Complex Risk management
security
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19. Does Science make us safer?
Genoa 2013 Science and Technology make our communities safer?
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Genoa 2009 & 2012 Science and Technology make the work Safer?
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20. Science and Risk
More Information less Risk (if Knowledgeis complete)
More Knowledge less Risk (if Knowledge is lacking)
Shannon 1949 Uncertainty > Information Entropy
De Finetti 1970 Probability does not esiste
If you make work (aquire information/ make inspection) you
reduce risk
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
2009 Risk Definiton Uncertainty – Risk
If you make research (increase Knowledge) you reduce risk
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21. Knowledge Based Inspections
Equipment
Critical Structures
Degradation
Mechanism
TIME
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk based Inspections =
Inspection
Risk / Entropy
Risk Based Inspection
Information Degradation
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22. Precautionary principle adopted in Europe in situation of
scientific uncertainty.
“fundamentalist” application of preacutionary principle could
stop all innovations in Europe, thus it is essential investigate
safety at very early stages, before industrial applications
Research essential for susbstainable economic growth in
Europe include:
Safety of Nanomaterials and Nanotechnologies
Safety of Green technologies
Safety of Advanced biotechnologies
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Risk Research vs Preacution Principle
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23. Disappearing Knowledge
Experience underestimated, is forgotten
Knowledge, hidden in official documents, is covered by dust,
then dies and it’s lost forever
Revive continuously Safety Knowledge to prevent accident
Involve experienced Personnel in developing Safety System
Learn from experience, including accident, near misses, and
positive histories.
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
The relentless effect of Entropy Law:
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24. Information
management
Experience
Knowledge
Management
Safety - Secuity
Management
System
Information
management
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Sharing Information or Knowledge
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25. Operator contracts a work
to a maintenance company.
Contractor worker
who must be
provided with the
full equipment
The Operator must provide
safety info’s to the contractors
(permit to work)
The Operator safety
manager knows the
environment related hazards,
including major accidents
(goggles, face-shield,
masks, gloves, boots,
earmuffs, safety
helmets…
Contractor firms’
safety manager
knows well the
task related
hazard (e.g. falls
from height, cuts)
Protective equipment
to be selected in wide
range according to
the CEN standard
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Example from INAIL research “Safe contractors
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2.2

26. “Ontology” an artificial
intelligence method has been
used for organizing
knowledge and inferring
decisions about contractors
safety
Knowledge
Ontology
Onto DPI: appropriate PPE choice
for maintenance within a large
industrial park,
DUVRI art.26 81/08
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Sharing Knowledge to make Decisions
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27. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Example from INAIL research “NearMisses”
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28. Sharing & Reviving Knowledge
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Public Domain
Knowledge
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29. Knowledge Based
Risk management
Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica
Thanks for your attention !
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