CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, nuclear negotiations, and regional conflicts closely. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. Iranian officials endorsed the P5+1 nuclear framework agreement, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated his redline of immediate sanctions relief in the event of a final deal. 2. Al Houthis lost ground to anti-al Houthi militias in Aden and Abyan but expanded into Shabwah where they seized the governorate’s capital, Ataq. 3.The Kenyan government continues to target al Shabaab militants both in Kenya and Somalia following the April 2 Garissa University attack.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
April 14, 2015

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. Iranian officials demanded immediate sanctions relief and rejected the P5+1’s proposal for IAEA-led military site
inspections as part of the nuclear framework agreement, which Supreme Leader Khamenei has neither supported nor
opposed.
2. Al Houthis lost ground in Aden and Abyan but expanded into Shabwah where they seized the governorate’s capital.
3. The Kenyan government continues to target al Shabaab militants both in Kenya and Somalia following the April 2 Garissa
University attack.
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3. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Saudi-led Operation Decisive Storm continued to lose popular support among the Yemeni people as civilian casualties
mounted from April 4-10. Separately, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the U.S. is aware of Iranian support for the
al Houthis in Yemen. Iran has continued to call for an end to Saudi-airstrikes in Yemen and for all parties to return to dialogue.
Outlook: Operation Decisive Storm will continue to lose support as civilian casualties mount. Saudi Arabia will feel pressed to
find a solution to the Yemen crisis before ending its airstrikes.
Security
Anti-al Houthi militias appeared to make progress against the al Houthis in Aden and Abyan governorates. Anti-al Houthi forces
reportedly pushed the al Houthis out of al Mukalla and Dar Saad, Aden, on April 8. Anti-al Houthi forces in Abyan reportedly
retook Lawder city from al Houthi control on April 5 and Shaqra city on April 8. Al Houthi control expanded in Shabwah
governorate, as al Houthi forces seized Ataq city on April 8. Separately, local tribesmen in Ibb and Taiz began launching attacks
on al Houthi sites within the governorates.
Outlook: Operation Decisive Storm has impeded but failed to halt al Houthi southward and eastward expansion. The al Houthis
seem to be suffering losses in Abyan but have captured territory in Shabwah. Local resistance movements may inhibit the
ability of the al Houthis to control the territory they currently occupy.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Ansar al Sharia seized military bases in al Abr, Hadramawt, on April 7 and remain in partial control of the capital of Hadramawt,
al Mukalla, which they reportedly plan to defend from al Houthi expansion. Suspected Ansar al Sharia militants carried out an
SVBIED attack targeting al Houthis in Bayhan, Shabwah on April 10.
Outlook: Ansar al Sharia will continue to consolidate territory in eastern Yemen and are depicting themselves as an alternative
to al Houthi expansion in Yemen.
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

4. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN
1) 04 -10 APR: Al
Houthi militants
battled anti-al Houthi
militias for control of
Aden city, Aden.
2) 04 - 09 APR: Ansar
al Sharia attacked
military bases in
Hadramawt.
3) 09 APR: Al Houthi
militants and allied
military units seized
Ataq city, Shabwah.
4) 10 APR: Ansar al
Sharia militants
conducted SVBIED
attack targeting al
Houthis in Bayhan,
Shabwah.
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4
1
2

5. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Following the April 2 Garissa University attack, opposition leaders in Kenya called for the Kenyan Defense Forces to withdraw
from Somalia in order to prevent further attacks. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, however, called for Kenya to continue to
fight against al Shabaab and for Kenyan Muslims to help root out al Shabaab members and sympathizers from their
communities. To this end, the Kenyan Minister for Foreign Affairs called for Kenya’s U.S. and European partners to increase
their support for Kenya in the fight against al Shabaab.
Outlook: Kenya will continue to combat al Shabaab in Kenya and Somalia. Discontent with the current policies could grow if
the situation does not improve.
Security
Kenya continued to target al Shabaab in Somalia when it conducted airstrikes in Gedo region on April 6. Kenyan officials
claimed that the strikes were effective, while al Shabaab claimed that the strikes did not target bases but rather farmland.
Following the April 2 Garissa University attack, Uganda arrested a number of suspected terrorists. One of the suspects arrested
was an ex-Gauntanamo detainee.
Outlook: The Kenyan airstrikes signify Kenya’s continued participation in the fight against al Shabaab in Somalia. Uganda’s
arrests signal that it is concerned about possible al Shabaab attacks in the country.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab released a video on April 4 calling the Garissa University attack retaliation for Kenyan troops in Somalia. In the
video al Shabaab said that they had repeatedly warned Kenya of the consequences of its actions and warned of future attacks
if the policies do not change. The Somali Federal Government also placed bounties on 11 al Shabaab members, including the
group’s leader Ahmad Umar and the reported planner of the Garissa University attack, Mohamed Mohamud.
Outlook: Al Shabaab’s likely objective of the Garissa University attack was to convince Kenya to withdraw from Somalia. Al
Shabaab will likely attempt further attacks in Kenya to achieve this goal.
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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6. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
1) 06 APR: Kenyan
airstrikes targeted al
Shabaab bases in
Gedo region.
2) 07 APR: Police
arrested terror
suspects in Wakiso
district and Kampala,
Uganda.
3) 07 APR: Suspected
al Shabaab IED attack
in Galkayo, Mudug
region.
4) 09 APR: Police
arrested terror
suspects in Kasese,
Kasese district,
Uganda.
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
6
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
6
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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3
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7. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Abdullah al Thinni directed the National Oil Company to deposit its revenue into the Tobruk government’s UAE bank account
rather than the politically neutral Central Bank of Libya. Neither the National Oil Company nor the Central Bank of Libya has
responded to this order. Additionally al Thinni successfully lobbied the Egyptian and Kuwaiti governments to cease
rebroadcasting al Nabaa TV, the primary television station for Libya Dawn. This has effectively shut down the channel.
Outlook: The neutrality of the Central Bank, and therefore the oil profits, is one of the few stabilizing forces in Libya today.
Should one side gain control of this money, they would not only have access to the funds, but also the massive attached
patronage networks.
Security
Libyan National Army (LNA) forces have made gains throughout the country, clearing key districts in Benghazi and expanding
their presence around Tripoli. Additionally, key LNA and al Saiqa leaders have claimed that Benghazi will be completely secured
in the near future.
Outlook: It is highly unlikely that fighting in Benghazi will cease in the foreseeable future, but by clearing Buhadema it is judged
that the LNA currently has the upper hand. The future of the Tripoli operation remains unclear.
Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in Libya
Ansar al Sharia in Libya published a video entitled “The Chargers of Dawn” showing military activities near Benina Airport in
Benghazi. Included in the video was a short speech from Abu Abdullah al Libi, the cleric who was rumored to have defected to
ISIS. This calls into question the validity of those rumors. Additionally, Ansar al Sharia published several picture sets over the
course of the week, increasing their social media presence significantly.
Outlook: The expansion of Ansar al Sharia’s media presence indicates a desire to raise the profile of the organization, which
primarily works within coalitions and alliances in major cities. This coalition strategy was likely designed to minimize risk during
a period in which the organization was vulnerable and therefore the expansion could represent perceived organizational
strength.
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

8. ASSESSMENT:
AQIM
Abdelmalek Droukdel, AQIM’s emir, congratulated Jabhat al Nusra and Jaish al Fatah for their recent gains in Syria in an audio
recording. The recording is the emir’s first statement since 2012.
Outlook: The resurfacing of Abdelmalek Droukdel is likely to renew support for AQIM in the Maghreb region.
Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)
Militant attacks continue to target Tunisian security forces in Tunisia’s Kasserine region. Unknown militants attacked a Tunisian
military patrol leaving five soldiers dead and nine others wounded in the Kasserine governorate near the Algerian border.
Tunisian security forces arrested 13 men suspected of being behind this ambush, but the search for the remaining militants is
ongoing. No militant organizations has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Outlook: Although Tunisia has increased its counter-terrorism operations since the Bardo Museum Attack, militant activity
targeting Tunisian security forces will likely increase. Tunisian security forces will continue their anti-terror sweeps particularly
near the borders.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
Five unidentified gunmen kidnapped a Romanian security officer in Tambao, Burkina Faso, close to the Malian border. The
gunmen headed toward Mali after the kidnapping, and so far no group has claimed responsibility for the incident. Burkinabe
authorities are currently hunting for the kidnappers in Mali with the help of French and U.S. troops. Separately, unknown
assailants shelled the northern Malian town of Gao, killing one civilian and wounding three others. A landmine also detonated
beneath a MINUSMA convoy in Kidal, northern Mali, wounding two peacekeepers. Unidentified gunmen attacked the town of
Boni, in central Mali, leaving two civilians dead.
Outlook: Recent attacks against civilians and peacekeeping forces coupled with the kidnapping of a Romanian represent a
disturbing trend in increased militant activity. Islamist militant groups like MUJAO are likely to stage more attacks and will
continue to benefit from Mali’s instability.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA
9999999
1) 05 APR:
ISIS detonated an
SVBIED on a Libya
Dawn checkpoint in
Misrata, killing 6 and
wounding 21.
2) 07 APR: LNA
forces clashed with
Libya Dawn southwest
of Tripoli. LNA forces
are reportedly close to
securing the district.
3) 08 APR: LNA
forces launched a
complex attack on the
Mujahedeen Shura
Council of Derna.
4) 09-10 APR: LNA
forces have made
significant progress
towards
clearing Benghazi.
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10. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1) 07 APR: A militant
ambush on a military
patrol left five
soldiers dead and
nine others wounded
in Kasserine. Tunisian
forces arrested 13
suspects.
2) 09 APR: Algerian
security forces killed
four members of the
Soldiers of the
Caliphate in
Boumerdes.
3) 10 APR: Tunisian
security forces
arrested the leader
of a Uqba ibn Nafaa
cell that was plotting
explosions in the
capital.
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11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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1
1) 04 APR:
Unidentified gunmen
kidnapped a
Romanian security
officer in Tambao,
Burkina Faso, and
then fled towards the
Malian border.
2) 05 APR: Unknown
militants shelled the
town of Gao.
3) 06 APR: An IED
exploded underneath
a MINUSMA convoy
near Kidal.
4) 06 APR: French
special forces
conducted a raid
against AQIM in
Tessalit and freed a
Dutch hostage.
WEST AFRICA
2
3
SAHEL
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12. ASSESSMENT:
Regional Developments
Senior Iranian officials continued to criticize the Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
escalated Tehran’s rhetoric against Riyadh, calling the Arab coalition’s military campaign an act of genocide. Khamenei said that
the lack of composure and strategic depth displayed by the Saudis is due to the “inexperienced youngsters” appointed to
positions of power. Khamenei explicitly warned Riyadh of the consequences it will face, stating that “it will certainly take losses
and will not emerge victorious at all.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, meanwhile, met with Pakistani Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif to stress the need for political dialogue in resolving the crisis in Yemen.
Outlook: Iran will continue to promote inclusive dialogue in Yemen, while highlighting the strategic and political costs
associated with a prolonged conflict, as part of Tehran’s diplomatic strategy to undermine the Saudi-led coalition.
Nuclear Talks
Numerous senior regime officials and IRGC personnel solidly endorsed the P5+1-Tehran nuclear framework agreement last
week. Commander of the IRGC Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari expressed his support for the agreement, while Parliament
Speaker Ali Larijani hailed it as a “promising” track to “economic prosperity.” Officials such as AFGS Headquarters Chief Major
General Hassan Firouzabadi and Judiciary Head Ayatollah Sadegh Amoli Larijani also praised the Iranian negotiating team.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, expressed general ambivalence about the framework agreement, citing the
fact that the two sides have not yet reached a final deal. Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani were among the regime
officials who reiterated the Supreme Leader’s longstanding redline of immediate – rather than phased – relief from all sanctions
in the event of a final nuclear deal.
Outlook: Regime officials will continue to demand immediate sanctions relief as part of a final nuclear deal as negotiations
continue with the P5+1.
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IRAN

13. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN
1305 APR – 09 APR 2015
APR 5: President Hassan Rouhani reiterated that sanctions must be removed, not suspended, in the event of
a final P5+1 nuclear deal.
APR 6: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani lent his support for the nuclear framework agreement.
APR 7: IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari expressed support for the framework agreement
and praised the negotiating team.
APR 7: President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed eight agreements;
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with Erdogan.
APR 7: Pakistan-based militants killed eight border guards in Sistan va Baluchistan province.
APR 8: The Artesh Navy announced that the 34th Fleet departed for the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el Mandeb
Strait for a three-month deployment.
APR 8: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with China’s special envoy to the Middle East
Gong Xiaosheng to discuss the crises in Yemen.
APR 8: Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan rejected reports claiming the nuclear framework
agreement will permit inspections of sensitive military sites.
APR 9: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that he is “neither for, nor against” the framework
agreement, and reiterated his prerequisites for a final deal.
APR 9: President Hassan Rouhani reinforced immediate removal of sanctions as the Supreme Leader’s
bottom line for a final nuclear deal.
APR 9: Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh met with the Chinese Energy Minister in Beijing to discuss energy
cooperation.
APR 9: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz
Sharif, and discussed the crises in Yemen.

14. ACRONYMS
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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)
Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
Islamic State (IS)
Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
North Waziristan (NWA)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
South Waziristan (SWA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

15. CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Alexis Knutsen
al Qaeda analyst
alexis.knutsen@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Mehrdad Moarefian
Iran analyst
mehrdad.moarefian@aei.org
(202) 888-6574
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,
visit www.criticalthreats.org.
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