1. 2013/2014
WINNING IN
GROWTH CITIES:
RETAIL
A Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Research Publication
POPULATION AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
A good proxy for measuring the prospects of entering a particular
retail market is population size. The number of potential
consumers in each market would be of great importance to
retailers as they weigh up the costs and benefits of opening stores
across the world. However, population alone cannot effectively
account for the difference in affluence and purchasing power
power.
In order to measure this, another indicator which was factored in
our analysis was gross domestic product as calculated in
purchasing power parity – therefore taking into account inflation
and cost differences between countries. Both population and GDP
for metropolitan cities were calculated by Brookings Institution as
part of their analysis of data from Oxford Economics, Moody's
Moody s
Analytics, and U.S. Census Bureau.
The most populated metropolitan area around the world in 2012
was Tokyo with over 36.6 million of residents. The Japanese
capital was followed in second place by Jakarta, the Indonesian
capital, which contained over 31 million inhabitants in 2012. The
metropolitan area of Chongqing completed the top three with just
over 29.1 million inhabitants. Indeed, it is not surprising that the
most populous continent, Asia, contains the top eight largest cities
across the globe by population.
On the other hand, the purchasing power of the average consumer
in each city differs significantly. If we examine the two largest cities
by population as an example, Tokyo and Jakarta, GDP in the
Japanese capital is almost seven times greater than that of Jakarta,
making the case for a more attractive retail market. This does not
exclude the potential for further development in the Indonesian
capital due its vast population, but it does nonetheless highlight the
disparity in purchasing power.
When ranking cities by nominal GDP (PPP rate), Tokyo again
comes out on top with just under $1.52 trillion, followed in second
by New York with $1.21 trillion and Los Angeles with $ 787 billion.
,
g
population, GDP p capita for
,
per p
However, when taking into account p p
these U.S. cities is far greater.
Indeed, the first seven positions for GDP per capita are all
occupied by U.S. Cities, with Hartford – famous for its insurance
industry – in first place with almost $80,000 per inhabitant.
Meanwhile, among the leading global gateway cities with a
population of at least 10 million, New York has the highest GDP
per capita, followed by Los Angeles, Paris and London. Moscow
completes the top five, with Tokyo – the most populous
metropolitan area in the world – sixth with $41,446 per capita.
AVERAGE GDP PER CAPITA BY REGION
(thousands US$, PPP rates, per resident)
Western Europe
$52.3
North America
$38.6
Asia Pacific
$29.2
$27.1
Eastern Europe and
Central Asia
Latin America
$24.7
$18.5
Middle East and Africa
Source: Brookings Institution’s analysis of data from Oxford Economics, Moody's Analytics, and U.S. Census Bureau
4