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Biotechnology



                                  Oncothyreon
                                  Outperform (1)

                                  ONTY reports earnings on the heels of a tough
March 7, 2012
                                  trading day
Analysts                          Conclusion: ONTY held its 4Q11/FY2011 earnings call yesterday after market
Simos Simeonidis, Ph.D.           close. The call focused on the news of the continuation of the START trial
(646) 562-1386
simos.simeonidis
                                  following the second interim look and provided financial and pipeline updates.
@cowen.com
                                      We view "the trial must go on" news as neutral for the stock. For
Yatin Suneja                           more on our view on the impact of the continuation of the START trial, see
(646) 562-1388
yatin.suneja@cowen.com
                                       our report published yesterday morning. Briefly, we view the news that the
                                       DMC recommended that the trial must go on to completion as a net neutral
                                       for the stock; we don't believe that the fact that the trial was not stopped for
                                       efficacy at the 75% mark, precludes a successful outcome at the final
                                       analysis. In addition, we remind investors that there were futility and safety
                                       analyses in this second interim look, and the fact that the DMC did not
                                       recommend that the trial be stopped for either reason looks positive.
                                       Finally, we see yesterday's sell-off as a buying opportunity, regardless of
                                       any conviction about the final outcome of the trial, even for investors with a
                                       short-term, 6-9 month horizon, since we would expect the stock to recover
                                       at least some, if not all, of yesterday's losses as we get closer to release of
                                       the final data.

                                      Non-Stimuvax pipeline update. ONT-10 will go in the clinic this quarter
                                       and the company expects to present data from the monotherapy Phase II
                                       trial of PX-866 in GBM at ASCO, while data from the two randomized Phase II
                                       trials will be presented in late 2012. The company also guided that they
                                       expect to complete enrollment in all 4 Phase II trials of PX-866 in 2012.

                                      4Q11 and FY2011 numbers reported. ONTY spent $6.6M ($4.2M in
                                       R&D, $2.4M in SG&A) in 4Q and $25M ($18M in R&D, $7M in SG&A) in 2011.
                                       ONTY ended 2011 with $66.4M or ~$1.18/share in cash and guided that cash
                                       used in operations in 2012 will be $30M-$33M.

ONTY (03/06)          $5.07    Revenue $MM
Mkt cap          $263.6MM        FY        2011            2012E                    2013E
Dil shares out      52.0MM     Dec        Actual        Prior    Current         Prior    Current
Avg daily vol     15,252.0K     Q1           0.1           —         0.0            —          —
52-wk range       $3.1-11.6     Q2           0.0           —         0.0            —          —
Dividend                 Nil    Q3           0.0           —         0.0            —          —
Dividend yield           Nil    Q4           0.0         20.0        0.0            —          —
BV/sh                 $0.64    Year          0.1        20.0         0.0            —        20.0
Net cash/sh           $1.18    EV/S           —            —          —             —       10.3x
Debt/cap               0.0%
ROA (LTM)                NA
5-yr fwd EPS             NA    EPS $
growth (Norm)                   FY         2011             2012E                   2013E
                               Dec        Actual         Prior    Current        Prior    Current
                                Q1         (0.24)       (0.14)      (0.17)          —          —
                                Q2         (0.09)       (0.16)      (0.17)          —          —
                                Q3           0.22       (0.16)      (0.17)          —          —
S&P 500              1343.4     Q4         (0.27)         0.20      (0.19)          —          —
                               Year       (1.12)       (0.23)      (0.71)           —      (0.35)
                                CY             —        (0.22)      (0.71)          —          —
                                P/E            —            —           —           —          —




Please see addendum of this report for important disclosures.                                                 www.cowen.com
Oncothyreon



                                   Company Description

                                   Oncothyreon is an oncology-focused biotech company. The company’s lead
                                   program, Stimuvax, is a therapeutic cancer vaccine that targets the MUC-1 antigen,
                                   and is currently in two Phase III trials in patients with Stage III NSCLC:
                                   (1) the 1476-patient START trial (with final data expected in early 2013), and
                                   (2) the 420-patient INSPIRE trial conducted in five Asian countries, which is expected
                                   to read out around 2014. Oncothyreon is developing Stimuvax via a worldwide
                                   partnership with Merck KGaA, and is entitled to milestones and royalties on net
                                   sales. Oncothyreon's second compound, PX-866, is an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform,
                                   small molecule inhibitor of PI3K, developed as mono- and combination therapy in
                                   four Phase II trials in a variety of solid tumors. Oncothyreon’s is also developing
                                   ONT-10, a next-generation version of Stimuvax, which is currently in preclinical
                                   development, with a Phase I planned for 1Q12. Oncothyreon was founded in 1985, is
                                   headquartered in Bellevue, WA and has approximately 25 employees.


Oncothyreon R&D pipeline
  Candidate nam e               Indication         P- C I     II   III FILING MKT                               Com m ents
 Stimuvax            NSCLC                                          •                                     Final d ata early 2 0 1 3
 ONT- 1 0            Oncology                        •                                           Phase I trial exp ected to start in 1 Q1 2
 PX- 8 6 6           Head & Neck, NSCLC                       •                                  Comb ination with Taxotere (d ocetaxel)
 PX- 8 6 6           Head & Neck, CRC                         •                                   Comb ination with Erb itux (cetuximab )
 PX- 8 6 6           Gliob lastoma                            •                              Monotherap y trial was initiated b y NCI of Canad a
 PX- 8 6 6           Chemotherap y naïve Prostate             •                              Monotherap y trial was initiated b y NCI of Canad a
 PX- 8 6 6           IPF                             •
 ONT- 7 0 1          Oncology                        •
 Total D rugs in D evelopm ent                       3    0   4     1          0       0
 Bellevue, WA        Investor Relations Contact: Julie Rathbun - 2 0 6 .7 6 9 .9 2 1 9
     Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company



Oncothyreon upcoming milestones
                                    Milestones                                                     Timing
     Init iat e a Phase I clinical t rial of ONT-10 in solid t umors                                1Q12
     Dat a from t he Phase II t rials of PX-866 in GBM                                          ASCO 2012
     Dat a from t he t wo randomized Phase II t rials of PX-866                            EORTC-NIC-AACR 2012
     START t rial: Full dat a                                                                   early 2013
     Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company




 2                                 March 7, 2012
Oncothyreon




Investment Thesis
Oncothyreon is an oncology-focused biotech with two compounds in the clinic:
(1) Stimuvax, an off-the-shelf, therapeutic cancer vaccine that targets MUC-1-
expressing cells, in a WW partnership with Merck KGaA, currently in two Phase III
trials in Stage III NSCLC, with final data expected in early 2013, and
(2) PX-866, an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K, which is being tested
as both a monotherapy and in combination with Erbitux and Taxotere in four Phase
II trials in a number of solid tumors, with data expected in mid-2012. The company
plans to initiate clinical development of its third asset, ONT-10, an improved, next-
generation version of Stimuvax, in 1Q12.

(1) Stimuvax: A therapeutic cancer vaccine for lung cancer with Phase III data
expected early 2013. Oncothyreon’s lead program, Stimuvax, a therapeutic cancer
vaccine that targets MUC-1-expressing cells, is being developed via a WW
partnership with Merck KGaA, and has shown a 17.3-month survival benefit in a
randomized, controlled Phase IIb trial in Stage IIIb NSCLC patients. Oncothyreon and
Merck KGaA are testing Stimuvax in two Phase III trials in patients with Stage III
NSCLC: the 1476-patient START trial (with final data expected in early 2013), and the
420-patient INSPIRE trial in an Asian patient population, which we expect to read out
around 2014. If the START trial results in a clinically meaningful overall survival
benefit, Stimuvax has the potential to become a blockbuster in the NSCLC setting
alone; furthermore, given MUC-1's aberrant expression in a number of other cancers,
success in NSCLC could translate in a role for Stimuvax in other solid tumor settings.
Oncothyreon is entitled to receive up to $90M more in regulatory (filings and
approvals) and sales milestones from Merck KGaA, in addition to royalties on sales
ranging from the mid-teens (North America) to the high single digits (ROW).

(2) PX-866: an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K, in a broad
Phase II development program. With investors’ attention understandably focused
on the Stimuvax, and with the development of Stimuvax being handled by and paid
for by Merck KGaA, Oncothyreon is focusing its efforts on PX-866, an oral,
irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K. PX-866 has a promising preclinical
profile and has shown activity in Phase I data presented at the 2010 ASCO. In late
2010, the company started a broad Phase II development program, with four trials of
PX-866 as monotherapy and in combination with Erbitux and Taxotere in a variety of
solid tumors, with data expected in mid-2012, probably at the 2012 ASCO meeting.

Stimuvax and PX-866: we should know the answers about both of these
programs in the next 9-12 months. In December 2010, the company announced
that the START trial Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) completed the first interim
look (futility and safety analysis) in the trial, triggered by the occurrence of 50% of
the events (353), and recommended that the trial continues. In March 2012, the DMC
completed the second interim look, which was triggered by the occurrence of 75% of
the events (529), and the DMC recommended that the trial continues until
completion, with final results now expected in early 2013. Data from the second
compound in ONTY’s pipeline, oral PI3K inhibitor, PX-866, are expected at ASCO
2012 and in 2H2012. Thus, in the next 9-12 months, we expect to have a steady
stream of data read-outs from ONTY, which should provide investors with answers
as to whether either compound is a drug or not.

Therapeutic cancer vaccines and Phase II oncology: high-risk/high-reward
arenas, even within the volatile small-cap biotech. Therapeutic cancer vaccine



March 7, 2012                                                                3
Oncothyreon



                                              development and small molecule oncology are high-risk/high-reward investment
                                              arenas, even within the already volatile small-cap biotech space, with significantly
                                              more failures than successes in both. In addition, our positive view on Stimuvax’s
                                              efficacy and safety is based on a small, albeit promising and prospectively-defined,
                                              subset of a Phase IIb trial of 65 patients (35 and 30 in the Stimuvax and control arms,
                                              respectively), and a confirmatory Phase I/II trial in 22 patients. Finally, on the PI3K
                                              inhibitor program, we believe it is still early days in the development of PX-866,
                                              given that we only have Phase I data from this compound and we will not have a
                                              better understanding of its potential until we have seen data from the Phase II trials,
                                              which will start reading out in mid-2012.


Oncothyreon P&L ($MM)
 ($MM)                                               2009A         2010A      Q1:11A     Q2:11A     Q3:11A     Q4:11A      2011A      Q1:12E     Q2:12E     Q3:12E     Q4:12E     2012E      2013E
 Revenues
 Royalties on US Net Sales                                 0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Royalties on EU Net Sales                                 0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Royalties on Japan Net Sales                              0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Royalties on ROW Net Sales                                0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Total WW Royalties                                        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Less: Royalties Paid to Univesities on US sales           0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Total WW Royalties (Net of royalties on US sales)         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Licensing Revenue from Collaborative Agreements           2.1        0.0        0.1        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.1        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       20.0
 Total Revenues                                            2.1        0.0        0.1        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.1        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       20.0
 COGS                                                      0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0
     Gross margin
 R&D                                                       6.1       11.2         4.2        4.2        5.4        4.2       17.9         6.1        6.3        6.6        7.6      26.6       32.0
 SG&A                                                      6.6        7.8         1.8        1.6        1.1        2.4        6.9         1.6        1.8        2.0        2.2       7.6        9.5
 Total Operating expenses                                 12.9       19.5        6.0         5.8       6.4         6.6       24.8        7.7        8.1        8.6        9.8       34.2       41.5

 Operating Income/Loss                                   (10.9)     (19.5)       (5.9)      (5.8)      (6.4)      (6.6)     (24.7)       (7.7)      (8.1)      (8.6)      (9.8)    (34.2)     (21.5)
 Interest Expense                                          0.0        0.0         0.1        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.6         0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1       0.5        0.3
 Change in Fair Value of Warrant Liability                  6.2       (3.0)       1.5       28.0      (16.6)        4.8       17.6        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0
 Investment and Other Income/Expense                         0.0       0.6        0.3        0.1       (0.1)        0.0        0.3        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.7         0.7
 Pretax income                                            (17.0)     (15.8)      (7.1)     (34.0)        9.9      (11.5)     (42.7)      (7.7)      (8.1)      (8.6)      (9.8)     (34.0)     (21.1)
 Income tax expense                                        0.2        (0.2)       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0
 Tax rate                                                                                                                       0%         0%         0%         0%         0%         0%         0%
 Net Income (Loss)                                       (17.2)     (15.6)       (7.1)     (34.0)      9.9       (11.5)     (42.7)       (7.7)      (8.1)      (8.6)      (9.8)    (34.0)     (21.1)

 GAAP EPS
 Basic                                               $   (0.76) $ (0.58) $ (0.24) $ (0.91) $ 0.24              $ (0.27) $ (1.12) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.19) $ (0.71) $ (0.35)
 Diluted                                             $   (0.76) $ (0.58) $ (0.24) $ (0.91) $ 0.22              $ (0.27) $ (1.12) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.19) $ (0.71) $ (0.35)

 Basic shares                                             22.7       26.9        30.1       37.4       41.9       43.2       38.2        45.1       47.0       48.9       50.9      48.0       60.4
 Diluted shares                                           26.4       35.0        39.2       50.8       50.3       52.0       48.1        52.5       53.0       53.6       54.1      53.3       63.8


        Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company estimates




 4                                             March 7, 2012
Oncothyreon




Stimuvax WW NSCLC revenue model
 US Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model             2010E      2011E      2012E      2013E      2014E      2015E      2016E      2017E      2018E       2019E       2020E       2021E       2022E
 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients   222,520    224,478    226,454    228,446    230,457    232,485    234,531    236,594     238,676     240,777     242,896     245,033     247,189
 Population growth                             0.88%      0.88%      0.88%       0.88%      0.88%      0.88%      0.88%      0.88%       0.88%      0.88%        0.88%      0.88%        0.88%
 % of pts with NSCLC                             80%        80%        80%         80%        80%        80%        80%        80%         80%        80%          80%        80%          80%
 # of NSCLC patients                         178,016    179,583    181,163    182,757    184,365    185,988    187,624    189,276     190,941     192,621     194,317     196,027     197,752
 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC                   25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%         25%         25%         25%         25%         25%
 # of pts with Stage III NSCLC                44,504     44,896     45,291     45,689     46,091     46,497     46,906     47,319      47,735      48,155      48,579      49,007      49,438
 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy              75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%         75%         75%         75%         75%         75%
 # of pts eligible for chemotherapy           33,378     33,672     33,968     34,267     34,569     34,873     35,180     35,489      35,801      36,117      36,434      36,755      37,078
 % of pts with Stable disease or better          50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%         50%         50%         50%         50%         50%
 # of pts with Stable disease or better       16,689     16,836     16,984     17,133     17,284     17,436     17,590     17,745      17,901      18,058      18,217      18,377      18,539
 Stimuvax Penetration                                                                         6%        11%        17%        24%         31%         38%         42%         45%         45%
 # of NSCLC patients treated                                                               1,037      1,918      2,990      4,259       5,549       6,862       7,651       8,270       8,343
 Cost of treatment/year                                                                  $75,000    $76,500    $78,030    $79,591     $81,182     $82,806     $84,462     $86,151     $87,874
 % price increase                                                                             2%         2%         2%         2%          2%          2%          2%          2%          2%
 Total US Sales ($MM)                          $0.0       $0.0       $0.0        $0.0      $77.8     $146.7     $233.3     $339.0     $450.5      $568.2      $646.2      $712.5      $733.1

 EU Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model               2010       2011       2012       2013       2014       2015       2016       2017        2018        2019        2020        2021        2022
 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients   387,848    388,235    388,624    389,012    389,401    389,791    390,180    390,571     390,961     391,352     391,743     392,135     392,527
 Population growth                             0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%        0.10%      0.10%        0.10%
 % of pts with NSCLC                             80%        80%        80%         80%        80%        80%        80%        80%         80%        80%          80%        80%          80%
 # of NSCLC patients                         310,278    310,588    310,899    311,210    311,521    311,833    312,144    312,456     312,769     313,082     313,395     313,708     314,022
 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC                   25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%         25%         25%         25%         25%         25%
 # of pts with Stage III NSCLC                77,570     77,647     77,725     77,802     77,880     77,958     78,036     78,114      78,192      78,270      78,349      78,427      78,505
 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy              75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%         75%         75%         75%         75%         75%
 # of pts eligible for chemotherapy           58,177     58,235     58,294     58,352     58,410     58,469     58,527     58,586      58,644      58,703      58,762      58,820      58,879
 % of pts with Stable disease or better          50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%         50%         50%         50%         50%         50%
 # of pts with Stable disease or better       29,089     29,118     29,147     29,176     29,205     29,234     29,264     29,293      29,322      29,351      29,381      29,410      29,440
 Stimuvax Penetration                                                                         5%         9%        14%        19%         25%         30%         34%         36%         36%
 # of NSCLC patients treated                                                               1,402      2,573      3,980      5,624       7,272       8,923       9,872      10,588      10,598
 Cost of treatment/year                                                                  $56,250    $57,375    $58,523    $59,693     $60,887     $62,105     $63,347     $64,614     $65,906
 % price increase                                                                             2%         2%         2%         2%          2%          2%          2%          2%          2%
 Total EU Sales ($MM)                          $0.0       $0.0       $0.0        $0.0      $78.9     $147.6     $232.9     $335.7     $442.8      $554.1      $625.4      $684.1      $698.5

 Japan Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model            2010       2011       2012       2013       2014       2015       2016       2017        2018        2019        2020        2021        2022
 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients    86,161     85,972     85,783     85,594     85,406     85,218     85,030     84,843      84,657      84,470      84,284      84,099      83,914
 Population growth                             -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%     -0.22%      -0.22%      -0.22%      -0.22%      -0.22%      -0.22%
 % of pts with NSCLC                              80%        80%        80%        80%        80%        80%        80%        80%         80%         80%         80%         80%         80%
 # of NSCLC patients                          68,929     68,777     68,626     68,475     68,325     68,174     68,024     67,875      67,725      67,576      67,428      67,279      67,131
 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC                   25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%        25%         25%         25%         25%         25%         25%
 # of pts with Stage III NSCLC                17,232     17,194     17,157     17,119     17,081     17,044     17,006     16,969      16,931      16,894      16,857      16,820      16,783
 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy              75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%         75%         75%         75%         75%         75%
 # of pts eligible for chemotherapy           12,924     12,896     12,867     12,839     12,811     12,783     12,755     12,726      12,698      12,671      12,643      12,615      12,587
 % of pts with Stable disease or better          50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%         50%         50%         50%         50%         50%
 # of pts with Stable disease or better        6,462      6,448      6,434      6,420      6,405      6,391      6,377      6,363       6,349       6,335       6,321       6,307       6,294
 Stimuvax Penetration                                                                                    5%         9%        14%         19%         25%         30%         34%         36%
 # of NSCLC patients treated                                                                            307        561        865       1,219       1,571       1,922       2,119       2,266
 Cost of treatment/year                                                                             $57,375    $58,523    $59,693     $60,887     $62,105     $63,347     $64,614     $65,906
 % price increase                                                                                        2%         2%         2%          2%          2%          2%          2%          2%
 Total Japan Sales ($MM)                       $0.0       $0.0       $0.0        $0.0       $0.0      $17.6      $32.8      $51.7      $74.2       $97.6      $121.7      $136.9      $149.3

 ROW Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model              2010       2011       2012       2013       2014       2015       2016       2017        2018        2019        2020        2021        2022
 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients   857,244    858,101    858,959    859,818    860,678    861,539    862,400    863,263     864,126     864,990     865,855     866,721     867,588
 Population growth                             0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%        0.10%      0.10%        0.10%
 % of pts with NSCLC                             80%        80%        80%         80%        80%        80%        80%        80%         80%        80%          80%        80%          80%
 # of NSCLC patients                         685,795    686,481    687,168    687,855    688,543    689,231    689,920    690,610     691,301     691,992     692,684     693,377     694,070
 Population growth                             0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%      0.10%       0.10%      0.10%        0.10%      0.10%        0.10%
 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC                   25%        25%        25%         25%        25%        25%        25%        25%         25%        25%          25%        25%          25%
 # of pts with Stage III NSCLC               171,449    171,620    171,792    171,964    172,136    172,308    172,480    172,653     172,825     172,998     173,171     173,344     173,518
 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy              75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%        75%         75%         75%         75%         75%         75%
 # of pts eligible for chemotherapy          128,587    128,715    128,844    128,973    129,102    129,231    129,360    129,489     129,619     129,749     129,878     130,008     130,138
 % of pts with Stable disease or better          50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%        50%         50%         50%         50%         50%         50%
 # of pts with Stable disease or better       64,293     64,358     64,422     64,486     64,551     64,615     64,680     64,745      64,809      64,874      64,939      65,004      65,069
 Stimuvax Penetration                                                                                    2%         4%         6%          8%         11%         13%         15%         16%
 # of NSCLC patients treated                                                                          1,357      2,490      3,852       5,444       7,039       8,637       9,556      10,248
 Cost of treatment/year                                                                             $38,250    $39,015    $39,795     $40,591     $41,403     $42,231     $43,076     $43,937
 % price increase                                                                                                   2%         2%          2%          2%          2%          2%          2%
 Total ROW Sales ($MM)                         $0.0       $0.0       $0.0        $0.0       $0.0      $51.9      $97.2     $153.3     $221.0      $291.4      $364.7      $411.6      $450.3

 Total WW Sales ($MM)                          $0.0       $0.0       $0.0        $0.0     $156.6     $363.8     $596.2     $879.6    $1,188.5    $1,511.4    $1,758.1    $1,945.1    $2,031.2

       Source: Cowen and Company estimates




                                                March 7, 2012                                                                                                                 5
Oncothyreon




                                                      Addendum
                                STOCKS MENTIONED IN IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Ticker                             Company Name
ONTY                               Oncothyreon


                                                   ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect
his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation
was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.


                                               IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of ONTY securities.

Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of ONTY within the past twelve
months.

Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking
services from ONTY.

ONTY is or was in the past 12 months a client of Cowen and Company, LLC; during the past 12 months, Cowen and
Company, LLC provided IB services.

ONTY has been client(s) of Cowen and Company, LLC in the past 12 months.

Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next 3 months from ONTY.

Cowen and Company, LLC compensates research analysts for activities and services intended to benefit the firm's
investor clients. Individual compensation determinations for research analysts, including the author(s) of this report, are
based on a variety of factors, including the overall profitability of the firm and the total revenue derived from all sources,
including revenues from investment banking. Cowen and Company, LLC does not compensate research analysts based on
specific investment banking transactions.


                                                       DISCLAIMER

This research is for our clients only. Our research is disseminated primarily electronically and, in some cases, in printed
form. Research distributed electronically is available simultaneously to all Cowen and Company, LLC clients. All
published research, including required disclosures, can be obtained on the Firm’s client website,
www.cowenresearch.com.

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Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report




6                            March 7, 2012
Oncothyreon



© 2012 Cowen and Company, LLC. Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. All rights reserved. This research report is prepared for
the exclusive use of Cowen clients and may not be reproduced, displayed, modified, distributed, transmitted or disclosed,
in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, to others outside your organization without the express prior written
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Cowen and Company, LLC. New York (646) 562-1000          Boston (617) 946-3700 San Francisco (415) 646-7200
Chicago (312) 577-2240 Cleveland (440) 331-3531 Atlanta (866) 544-7009 Dallas (214) 978-0107 London
(affiliate) 44-207-071-7500 Geneva (affiliate) 41-22-707-6900



                                        COWEN AND COMPANY RATING DEFINITIONS (a)
Rating                                                                                                                           Definition
Outperform (1)                                                                                    Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500
Neutral (2)                                                                              Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500
Underperform (3)                                                                               Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500
(a) Assumptions: Time horizon is 12 months; S&P 500 is flat over forecast period.



                                        COWEN AND COMPANY RATING ALLOCATION (a)
                                                      Pct of companies under               Pct for which Investment Banking services
Rating                                              coverage with this rating           have been provided within the past 12 months
Buy (b)                                                                 52.3%                                                   8.4%
Hold (c)                                                                44.9%                                                   2.0%
Sell (d)                                                                 2.7%                                                   0.0%
(a) As of 12/31/2011. (b) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's rating definitions (see above). (c)
Corresponds to "Neutral" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions (see above). (d) Corresponds to "Underperform" as defined in
Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions (see above). Note: "Buy," "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its
ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings terms are used illustratively to comply with NASD and NYSE
regulations.




                                  March 7, 2012                                                                                       7
Oncothyreon




8   March 7, 2012

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Cowen and company report - ONTY

  • 1. Biotechnology Oncothyreon Outperform (1) ONTY reports earnings on the heels of a tough March 7, 2012 trading day Analysts Conclusion: ONTY held its 4Q11/FY2011 earnings call yesterday after market Simos Simeonidis, Ph.D. close. The call focused on the news of the continuation of the START trial (646) 562-1386 simos.simeonidis following the second interim look and provided financial and pipeline updates. @cowen.com  We view "the trial must go on" news as neutral for the stock. For Yatin Suneja more on our view on the impact of the continuation of the START trial, see (646) 562-1388 yatin.suneja@cowen.com our report published yesterday morning. Briefly, we view the news that the DMC recommended that the trial must go on to completion as a net neutral for the stock; we don't believe that the fact that the trial was not stopped for efficacy at the 75% mark, precludes a successful outcome at the final analysis. In addition, we remind investors that there were futility and safety analyses in this second interim look, and the fact that the DMC did not recommend that the trial be stopped for either reason looks positive. Finally, we see yesterday's sell-off as a buying opportunity, regardless of any conviction about the final outcome of the trial, even for investors with a short-term, 6-9 month horizon, since we would expect the stock to recover at least some, if not all, of yesterday's losses as we get closer to release of the final data.  Non-Stimuvax pipeline update. ONT-10 will go in the clinic this quarter and the company expects to present data from the monotherapy Phase II trial of PX-866 in GBM at ASCO, while data from the two randomized Phase II trials will be presented in late 2012. The company also guided that they expect to complete enrollment in all 4 Phase II trials of PX-866 in 2012.  4Q11 and FY2011 numbers reported. ONTY spent $6.6M ($4.2M in R&D, $2.4M in SG&A) in 4Q and $25M ($18M in R&D, $7M in SG&A) in 2011. ONTY ended 2011 with $66.4M or ~$1.18/share in cash and guided that cash used in operations in 2012 will be $30M-$33M. ONTY (03/06) $5.07 Revenue $MM Mkt cap $263.6MM FY 2011 2012E 2013E Dil shares out 52.0MM Dec Actual Prior Current Prior Current Avg daily vol 15,252.0K Q1 0.1 — 0.0 — — 52-wk range $3.1-11.6 Q2 0.0 — 0.0 — — Dividend Nil Q3 0.0 — 0.0 — — Dividend yield Nil Q4 0.0 20.0 0.0 — — BV/sh $0.64 Year 0.1 20.0 0.0 — 20.0 Net cash/sh $1.18 EV/S — — — — 10.3x Debt/cap 0.0% ROA (LTM) NA 5-yr fwd EPS NA EPS $ growth (Norm) FY 2011 2012E 2013E Dec Actual Prior Current Prior Current Q1 (0.24) (0.14) (0.17) — — Q2 (0.09) (0.16) (0.17) — — Q3 0.22 (0.16) (0.17) — — S&P 500 1343.4 Q4 (0.27) 0.20 (0.19) — — Year (1.12) (0.23) (0.71) — (0.35) CY — (0.22) (0.71) — — P/E — — — — — Please see addendum of this report for important disclosures. www.cowen.com
  • 2. Oncothyreon Company Description Oncothyreon is an oncology-focused biotech company. The company’s lead program, Stimuvax, is a therapeutic cancer vaccine that targets the MUC-1 antigen, and is currently in two Phase III trials in patients with Stage III NSCLC: (1) the 1476-patient START trial (with final data expected in early 2013), and (2) the 420-patient INSPIRE trial conducted in five Asian countries, which is expected to read out around 2014. Oncothyreon is developing Stimuvax via a worldwide partnership with Merck KGaA, and is entitled to milestones and royalties on net sales. Oncothyreon's second compound, PX-866, is an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform, small molecule inhibitor of PI3K, developed as mono- and combination therapy in four Phase II trials in a variety of solid tumors. Oncothyreon’s is also developing ONT-10, a next-generation version of Stimuvax, which is currently in preclinical development, with a Phase I planned for 1Q12. Oncothyreon was founded in 1985, is headquartered in Bellevue, WA and has approximately 25 employees. Oncothyreon R&D pipeline Candidate nam e Indication P- C I II III FILING MKT Com m ents Stimuvax NSCLC • Final d ata early 2 0 1 3 ONT- 1 0 Oncology • Phase I trial exp ected to start in 1 Q1 2 PX- 8 6 6 Head & Neck, NSCLC • Comb ination with Taxotere (d ocetaxel) PX- 8 6 6 Head & Neck, CRC • Comb ination with Erb itux (cetuximab ) PX- 8 6 6 Gliob lastoma • Monotherap y trial was initiated b y NCI of Canad a PX- 8 6 6 Chemotherap y naïve Prostate • Monotherap y trial was initiated b y NCI of Canad a PX- 8 6 6 IPF • ONT- 7 0 1 Oncology • Total D rugs in D evelopm ent 3 0 4 1 0 0 Bellevue, WA Investor Relations Contact: Julie Rathbun - 2 0 6 .7 6 9 .9 2 1 9 Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company Oncothyreon upcoming milestones Milestones Timing Init iat e a Phase I clinical t rial of ONT-10 in solid t umors 1Q12 Dat a from t he Phase II t rials of PX-866 in GBM ASCO 2012 Dat a from t he t wo randomized Phase II t rials of PX-866 EORTC-NIC-AACR 2012 START t rial: Full dat a early 2013 Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company 2 March 7, 2012
  • 3. Oncothyreon Investment Thesis Oncothyreon is an oncology-focused biotech with two compounds in the clinic: (1) Stimuvax, an off-the-shelf, therapeutic cancer vaccine that targets MUC-1- expressing cells, in a WW partnership with Merck KGaA, currently in two Phase III trials in Stage III NSCLC, with final data expected in early 2013, and (2) PX-866, an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K, which is being tested as both a monotherapy and in combination with Erbitux and Taxotere in four Phase II trials in a number of solid tumors, with data expected in mid-2012. The company plans to initiate clinical development of its third asset, ONT-10, an improved, next- generation version of Stimuvax, in 1Q12. (1) Stimuvax: A therapeutic cancer vaccine for lung cancer with Phase III data expected early 2013. Oncothyreon’s lead program, Stimuvax, a therapeutic cancer vaccine that targets MUC-1-expressing cells, is being developed via a WW partnership with Merck KGaA, and has shown a 17.3-month survival benefit in a randomized, controlled Phase IIb trial in Stage IIIb NSCLC patients. Oncothyreon and Merck KGaA are testing Stimuvax in two Phase III trials in patients with Stage III NSCLC: the 1476-patient START trial (with final data expected in early 2013), and the 420-patient INSPIRE trial in an Asian patient population, which we expect to read out around 2014. If the START trial results in a clinically meaningful overall survival benefit, Stimuvax has the potential to become a blockbuster in the NSCLC setting alone; furthermore, given MUC-1's aberrant expression in a number of other cancers, success in NSCLC could translate in a role for Stimuvax in other solid tumor settings. Oncothyreon is entitled to receive up to $90M more in regulatory (filings and approvals) and sales milestones from Merck KGaA, in addition to royalties on sales ranging from the mid-teens (North America) to the high single digits (ROW). (2) PX-866: an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K, in a broad Phase II development program. With investors’ attention understandably focused on the Stimuvax, and with the development of Stimuvax being handled by and paid for by Merck KGaA, Oncothyreon is focusing its efforts on PX-866, an oral, irreversible, pan-isoform inhibitor of PI3K. PX-866 has a promising preclinical profile and has shown activity in Phase I data presented at the 2010 ASCO. In late 2010, the company started a broad Phase II development program, with four trials of PX-866 as monotherapy and in combination with Erbitux and Taxotere in a variety of solid tumors, with data expected in mid-2012, probably at the 2012 ASCO meeting. Stimuvax and PX-866: we should know the answers about both of these programs in the next 9-12 months. In December 2010, the company announced that the START trial Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) completed the first interim look (futility and safety analysis) in the trial, triggered by the occurrence of 50% of the events (353), and recommended that the trial continues. In March 2012, the DMC completed the second interim look, which was triggered by the occurrence of 75% of the events (529), and the DMC recommended that the trial continues until completion, with final results now expected in early 2013. Data from the second compound in ONTY’s pipeline, oral PI3K inhibitor, PX-866, are expected at ASCO 2012 and in 2H2012. Thus, in the next 9-12 months, we expect to have a steady stream of data read-outs from ONTY, which should provide investors with answers as to whether either compound is a drug or not. Therapeutic cancer vaccines and Phase II oncology: high-risk/high-reward arenas, even within the volatile small-cap biotech. Therapeutic cancer vaccine March 7, 2012 3
  • 4. Oncothyreon development and small molecule oncology are high-risk/high-reward investment arenas, even within the already volatile small-cap biotech space, with significantly more failures than successes in both. In addition, our positive view on Stimuvax’s efficacy and safety is based on a small, albeit promising and prospectively-defined, subset of a Phase IIb trial of 65 patients (35 and 30 in the Stimuvax and control arms, respectively), and a confirmatory Phase I/II trial in 22 patients. Finally, on the PI3K inhibitor program, we believe it is still early days in the development of PX-866, given that we only have Phase I data from this compound and we will not have a better understanding of its potential until we have seen data from the Phase II trials, which will start reading out in mid-2012. Oncothyreon P&L ($MM) ($MM) 2009A 2010A Q1:11A Q2:11A Q3:11A Q4:11A 2011A Q1:12E Q2:12E Q3:12E Q4:12E 2012E 2013E Revenues Royalties on US Net Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Royalties on EU Net Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Royalties on Japan Net Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Royalties on ROW Net Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total WW Royalties 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Less: Royalties Paid to Univesities on US sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total WW Royalties (Net of royalties on US sales) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Licensing Revenue from Collaborative Agreements 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 Total Revenues 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 COGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross margin R&D 6.1 11.2 4.2 4.2 5.4 4.2 17.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.6 26.6 32.0 SG&A 6.6 7.8 1.8 1.6 1.1 2.4 6.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 7.6 9.5 Total Operating expenses 12.9 19.5 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.6 24.8 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.8 34.2 41.5 Operating Income/Loss (10.9) (19.5) (5.9) (5.8) (6.4) (6.6) (24.7) (7.7) (8.1) (8.6) (9.8) (34.2) (21.5) Interest Expense 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 Change in Fair Value of Warrant Liability 6.2 (3.0) 1.5 28.0 (16.6) 4.8 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Investment and Other Income/Expense 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 Pretax income (17.0) (15.8) (7.1) (34.0) 9.9 (11.5) (42.7) (7.7) (8.1) (8.6) (9.8) (34.0) (21.1) Income tax expense 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Net Income (Loss) (17.2) (15.6) (7.1) (34.0) 9.9 (11.5) (42.7) (7.7) (8.1) (8.6) (9.8) (34.0) (21.1) GAAP EPS Basic $ (0.76) $ (0.58) $ (0.24) $ (0.91) $ 0.24 $ (0.27) $ (1.12) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.19) $ (0.71) $ (0.35) Diluted $ (0.76) $ (0.58) $ (0.24) $ (0.91) $ 0.22 $ (0.27) $ (1.12) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.19) $ (0.71) $ (0.35) Basic shares 22.7 26.9 30.1 37.4 41.9 43.2 38.2 45.1 47.0 48.9 50.9 48.0 60.4 Diluted shares 26.4 35.0 39.2 50.8 50.3 52.0 48.1 52.5 53.0 53.6 54.1 53.3 63.8 Source: Oncothyreon, Cowen and Company estimates 4 March 7, 2012
  • 5. Oncothyreon Stimuvax WW NSCLC revenue model US Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients 222,520 224,478 226,454 228,446 230,457 232,485 234,531 236,594 238,676 240,777 242,896 245,033 247,189 Population growth 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% 0.88% % of pts with NSCLC 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% # of NSCLC patients 178,016 179,583 181,163 182,757 184,365 185,988 187,624 189,276 190,941 192,621 194,317 196,027 197,752 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% # of pts with Stage III NSCLC 44,504 44,896 45,291 45,689 46,091 46,497 46,906 47,319 47,735 48,155 48,579 49,007 49,438 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% # of pts eligible for chemotherapy 33,378 33,672 33,968 34,267 34,569 34,873 35,180 35,489 35,801 36,117 36,434 36,755 37,078 % of pts with Stable disease or better 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% # of pts with Stable disease or better 16,689 16,836 16,984 17,133 17,284 17,436 17,590 17,745 17,901 18,058 18,217 18,377 18,539 Stimuvax Penetration 6% 11% 17% 24% 31% 38% 42% 45% 45% # of NSCLC patients treated 1,037 1,918 2,990 4,259 5,549 6,862 7,651 8,270 8,343 Cost of treatment/year $75,000 $76,500 $78,030 $79,591 $81,182 $82,806 $84,462 $86,151 $87,874 % price increase 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Total US Sales ($MM) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $77.8 $146.7 $233.3 $339.0 $450.5 $568.2 $646.2 $712.5 $733.1 EU Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients 387,848 388,235 388,624 389,012 389,401 389,791 390,180 390,571 390,961 391,352 391,743 392,135 392,527 Population growth 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% % of pts with NSCLC 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% # of NSCLC patients 310,278 310,588 310,899 311,210 311,521 311,833 312,144 312,456 312,769 313,082 313,395 313,708 314,022 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% # of pts with Stage III NSCLC 77,570 77,647 77,725 77,802 77,880 77,958 78,036 78,114 78,192 78,270 78,349 78,427 78,505 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% # of pts eligible for chemotherapy 58,177 58,235 58,294 58,352 58,410 58,469 58,527 58,586 58,644 58,703 58,762 58,820 58,879 % of pts with Stable disease or better 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% # of pts with Stable disease or better 29,089 29,118 29,147 29,176 29,205 29,234 29,264 29,293 29,322 29,351 29,381 29,410 29,440 Stimuvax Penetration 5% 9% 14% 19% 25% 30% 34% 36% 36% # of NSCLC patients treated 1,402 2,573 3,980 5,624 7,272 8,923 9,872 10,588 10,598 Cost of treatment/year $56,250 $57,375 $58,523 $59,693 $60,887 $62,105 $63,347 $64,614 $65,906 % price increase 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Total EU Sales ($MM) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $78.9 $147.6 $232.9 $335.7 $442.8 $554.1 $625.4 $684.1 $698.5 Japan Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients 86,161 85,972 85,783 85,594 85,406 85,218 85,030 84,843 84,657 84,470 84,284 84,099 83,914 Population growth -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% -0.22% % of pts with NSCLC 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% # of NSCLC patients 68,929 68,777 68,626 68,475 68,325 68,174 68,024 67,875 67,725 67,576 67,428 67,279 67,131 % of pts with Stage III NSCLC 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% # of pts with Stage III NSCLC 17,232 17,194 17,157 17,119 17,081 17,044 17,006 16,969 16,931 16,894 16,857 16,820 16,783 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% # of pts eligible for chemotherapy 12,924 12,896 12,867 12,839 12,811 12,783 12,755 12,726 12,698 12,671 12,643 12,615 12,587 % of pts with Stable disease or better 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% # of pts with Stable disease or better 6,462 6,448 6,434 6,420 6,405 6,391 6,377 6,363 6,349 6,335 6,321 6,307 6,294 Stimuvax Penetration 5% 9% 14% 19% 25% 30% 34% 36% # of NSCLC patients treated 307 561 865 1,219 1,571 1,922 2,119 2,266 Cost of treatment/year $57,375 $58,523 $59,693 $60,887 $62,105 $63,347 $64,614 $65,906 % price increase 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Total Japan Sales ($MM) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $17.6 $32.8 $51.7 $74.2 $97.6 $121.7 $136.9 $149.3 ROW Stimuvax NSCLC Revenue Model 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 # of newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients 857,244 858,101 858,959 859,818 860,678 861,539 862,400 863,263 864,126 864,990 865,855 866,721 867,588 Population growth 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% % of pts with NSCLC 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% # of NSCLC patients 685,795 686,481 687,168 687,855 688,543 689,231 689,920 690,610 691,301 691,992 692,684 693,377 694,070 Population growth 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% % of pts with Stage III NSCLC 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% # of pts with Stage III NSCLC 171,449 171,620 171,792 171,964 172,136 172,308 172,480 172,653 172,825 172,998 173,171 173,344 173,518 % of pts eligible for chemotherapy 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% # of pts eligible for chemotherapy 128,587 128,715 128,844 128,973 129,102 129,231 129,360 129,489 129,619 129,749 129,878 130,008 130,138 % of pts with Stable disease or better 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% # of pts with Stable disease or better 64,293 64,358 64,422 64,486 64,551 64,615 64,680 64,745 64,809 64,874 64,939 65,004 65,069 Stimuvax Penetration 2% 4% 6% 8% 11% 13% 15% 16% # of NSCLC patients treated 1,357 2,490 3,852 5,444 7,039 8,637 9,556 10,248 Cost of treatment/year $38,250 $39,015 $39,795 $40,591 $41,403 $42,231 $43,076 $43,937 % price increase 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Total ROW Sales ($MM) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $51.9 $97.2 $153.3 $221.0 $291.4 $364.7 $411.6 $450.3 Total WW Sales ($MM) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $156.6 $363.8 $596.2 $879.6 $1,188.5 $1,511.4 $1,758.1 $1,945.1 $2,031.2 Source: Cowen and Company estimates March 7, 2012 5
  • 6. Oncothyreon Addendum STOCKS MENTIONED IN IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Ticker Company Name ONTY Oncothyreon ANALYST CERTIFICATION Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of ONTY securities. Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of ONTY within the past twelve months. Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services from ONTY. ONTY is or was in the past 12 months a client of Cowen and Company, LLC; during the past 12 months, Cowen and Company, LLC provided IB services. ONTY has been client(s) of Cowen and Company, LLC in the past 12 months. Cowen and Company, LLC and/or its affiliates expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from ONTY. Cowen and Company, LLC compensates research analysts for activities and services intended to benefit the firm's investor clients. Individual compensation determinations for research analysts, including the author(s) of this report, are based on a variety of factors, including the overall profitability of the firm and the total revenue derived from all sources, including revenues from investment banking. Cowen and Company, LLC does not compensate research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. DISCLAIMER This research is for our clients only. Our research is disseminated primarily electronically and, in some cases, in printed form. Research distributed electronically is available simultaneously to all Cowen and Company, LLC clients. All published research, including required disclosures, can be obtained on the Firm’s client website, www.cowenresearch.com. Further information on any of the above securities may be obtained from our offices. This report is published solely for information purposes, and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any state where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Other than disclosures relating to Cowen and Company, LLC, the information herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to change without notice. Notice to UK Investors: This publication is produced by Cowen and Company, LLC, which is regulated in the United States by FINRA and is disseminated in the United Kingdom by Cowen International Limited ("CIL"). In the United Kingdom, ‘Cowen and Company’ is a Trading Name of CIL. It is communicated only to persons of a kind described in Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. It must not be further transmitted to any other person without the consent of CIL. Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report 6 March 7, 2012
  • 7. Oncothyreon © 2012 Cowen and Company, LLC. Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. All rights reserved. This research report is prepared for the exclusive use of Cowen clients and may not be reproduced, displayed, modified, distributed, transmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, to others outside your organization without the express prior written consent of Cowen. Cowen research reports are distributed simultaneously to all clients eligible to receive such research prior to any public dissemination by Cowen of the research report or information or opinion contained therein. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and/or review of this research constitutes your agreement not to reproduce, display, modify, distribute, transmit, or disclose to others outside your organization the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets). All Cowen trademarks displayed in this report are owned by Cowen and may not be used without its prior written consent. Cowen and Company, LLC. New York (646) 562-1000 Boston (617) 946-3700 San Francisco (415) 646-7200 Chicago (312) 577-2240 Cleveland (440) 331-3531 Atlanta (866) 544-7009 Dallas (214) 978-0107 London (affiliate) 44-207-071-7500 Geneva (affiliate) 41-22-707-6900 COWEN AND COMPANY RATING DEFINITIONS (a) Rating Definition Outperform (1) Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 Neutral (2) Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 Underperform (3) Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 (a) Assumptions: Time horizon is 12 months; S&P 500 is flat over forecast period. COWEN AND COMPANY RATING ALLOCATION (a) Pct of companies under Pct for which Investment Banking services Rating coverage with this rating have been provided within the past 12 months Buy (b) 52.3% 8.4% Hold (c) 44.9% 2.0% Sell (d) 2.7% 0.0% (a) As of 12/31/2011. (b) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's rating definitions (see above). (c) Corresponds to "Neutral" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions (see above). (d) Corresponds to "Underperform" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions (see above). Note: "Buy," "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings terms are used illustratively to comply with NASD and NYSE regulations. March 7, 2012 7
  • 8. Oncothyreon 8 March 7, 2012