1. However, a strong if somewhat inexplicable finish, saw the
S&P 500 inch to new highs on both Thursday and Friday, while
the Dow climbed within 16 points of its all-time record.
Yet again, much of the week was taken up with news about
Greece. As expected, the Greeks were able to make a debt
payment of €757 million to the International Monetary Fund.
Analysts doubt Greece will have the money to make upcoming
payments, unless it gets the last bailout tranche of €7.2 billion by
the end of the summer. Greece must pay almost €12 billion. The
Greeks are reportedly angling for either a delay or having some
of their debt forgiven, but both options seem to be longshots.
Tensions are rising once more after Finance Minister Yanis
Varoufakis said that the “soul” of Mario Draghi, the president
of the European Central Bank, was “filled with fear” over the
prospect of giving Greece a break on its debt payments because
he was worried what Germany would do. Then on Friday,
speaking in Athens, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that while
he wanted to come to terms with the troika, he would not take
the further austerity steps demanded by creditors: “I want to
reassure the Greek people that there is no possibility or chance
that the Greek government will back down on pension and labor
issues.”
Sales fall, stocks soar
For the first four days of last week, stocks were mostly down
while the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to its highest
level in 2015 at 2.29%. Then on Friday, the government
announced that retail sales were flat in April (an increase of
0.2% had been forecast) from the month before, as were
core retail sales, less gas, cars, building materials and
food services. That was not the only tepid report of
the day – the Federal Reserve said that industrial
production declined for the fifth month in a
row in April, down 0.3%. In addition, the
preliminary University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index
for May came in at 88.6,
down from 95.9 in
April. Plus
the fate of Greece and the state of the United States economy, the
major stock indexes were volatile again last week.
With more mixed news about the
MARKET COMMENTARYFOR THE WEEK OF MAY 18, 2015
Key Market Data
Week ending… 5/8/2015 5/15/2015 Change
S&P500Index 2,116.10 2,122.73 +0.31%
MSCI EAFE Index 1,925.44 1,949.49 +1.25%
BarCapU.S.Aggregate
BondIndex
1,930.66 1,931.33 +0.03%
10-year Treasury
Note Rate
2.148% 2.141% -0.7 basis
pts.
Trending
• Jobless claims hit a 15-year low.
• Russia’s GDP contracts 1.9% in Q1.
• The PPI falls 1.3% from a year earlier.
61-1200
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT COMPANY
2. 2
the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.4% in April, which is the
third time this year it has dropped. Core prices, less food and
energy, dropped 0.2%, and over the last year the PPI fell 1.3%,
the biggest year-over-year decline since 2010, while core prices
were up just 0.8%. Still, perhaps because the weak news meant
that the Fed might wait longer to pull the trigger on raising its
benchmark rate, the indexes soared on Friday, with the Dow
gaining 191.75 points and the S&P 500 setting a record for the
second day in a row.
Growth in the eurozone picks up
There was one positive report on Friday, however, as Eurostat
said that gross domestic product (GDP) for the eurozone grew
1.6% in the first quarter, with France surprising on the upside
as its economy expanded 0.6%, its best showing in almost
two years. However, the GDP of two member nations, Greece
and Finland, contracted for the second quarter in a row, the
yardstick for a recession. Greece has been hamstrung by debt
payments, and Finland by its close trade relationship with
Russia.
Speaking of Russia, it reported that GDP contracted 1.9% in
the first quarter, less than expected, as Russia appears to be
recovering from the double-whammy of trade sanctions and
low energy prices. Ukraine, still locked in conflict, did not fare
nearly as well, with GDP for the first three months of 2015
tumbling 17.6% from a year earlier.
Across the Channel, the Bank of England (BOE) left its interest
rate unchanged at 0.5%, where it has remained since March
2009. The BOE also lowered its growth estimate for 2015 from
2.9% to 2.5%, while saying that inflation will hit 2% within the
next two years, giving it some flexibility to not raise interest
rates until perhaps the middle of next year.
MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 18, 2015
The trade pact drama
In Washington, President Obama continued to battle his own
party over the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. Early last
week, the democrats in the Senate voted against allowing a
fast-track version of the bill, which can’t be amended before
it comes to a vote. After some negotiating, a second round of
voting moved consideration of the bill forward, but the Senate
democrats are still expected to vote against it when it comes
back as a bill.
Jobless claims at 15-year low, again
In other news, first-time jobless claims fell 1,000 to 264,000,
while the four-week average dipped 7,750 to 271,750, its lowest
level since April 2000. The Treasury Department said that the
April budget surplus was $156.7 billion compared to $106.9
billion a year earlier, the largest surplus since April 2008, as
receipts totaled a record $471.8 billion. The National Federation
of Independent Business announced that its Small Business
Confidence Index was up 1.7 points in April to 96.9, the biggest
rise since December. Plus, 60% of the companies reported
capital outlays, the highest total since the recession ended. The
government said that business inventories rose 0.1% in March
compared to an increase of 0.2% in February. Lastly, Verizon
agreed to buy AOL for $4.4 billion, in part to acquire AOL’s mobile
video and advertising technology.
A look ahead
This week’s releases will include the latest on building permits
and housing starts, existing home sales, the Consumer Price
Index and Markit’s Manufacturing PMI. The Fed will also release
the minutes of its meeting on April 28 and 29.
NorthwesternMutualisthemarketingnameforTheNorthwesternMutualLifeInsuranceCompany,Milwaukee,
WI(NM)(lifeanddisabilityinsurance,annuities)anditssubsidiaries.NorthwesternMutualWealthManagement
Company®,Milwaukee,WI,(investmentmanagement,trustservices,andfee-basedfinancialplanning)subsidiary
ofNM,limitedpurposefederalsavingsbank.NorthwesternMutualInvestmentServices,LLC,(securities)
subsidiaryofNM,broker-dealer,registeredinvestmentadviser,memberFINRAandSIPC.
TheopinionsexpressedarethoseofNorthwesternMutualasofthedatestatedonthisreportandaresubject
tochange.Thereisnoguaranteethattheforecastsmadewillcometopass.Thismaterialdoesnotconstitute
investmentadviceandisnotintendedasanendorsementofanyspecificinvestmentorsecurity.Informationand
opinionsarederivedfromproprietaryandnon-proprietarysources.SourcesmayincludeBloomberg,Morningstar,
FactSetandStandard&Poor’s.
Pleaserememberthatallinvestmentscarrysomelevelofrisk,includingthepotentiallossofprincipalinvested.
Indexesand/orbenchmarksareunmanagedandcannotbeinvestedindirectly.Returnsrepresentpast
performance,arenotaguaranteeoffutureperformanceandarenotindicativeofanyspecificinvestment.
Diversificationandstrategicassetallocationdonotassureprofitorprotectagainstloss.Althoughstockshave
historicallyoutperformedbonds,theyalsohavehistoricallybeenmorevolatile.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsider
theirabilitytoinvestduringvolatileperiodsinthemarket.Thesecuritiesofsmallcapitalizationcompaniesare
subjecttohighervolatilitythanlarger,moreestablishedcompaniesandmaybelessliquid.Withfixedincome
securities,suchasbonds,interestratesandbondpricestendtomoveinoppositedirections.Wheninterestrates
fall,bondpricestypicallyriseandconverselywheninterestratesrise,bondpricestypicallyfall. Thisalsoholdstrue
forbondmutualfunds. Wheninterestratesareatlowlevelsthereisriskthatasustainedriseininterestratesmay
causelossestothepriceofbondsormarketvalueofbondfundsthatyouown.Atmaturity,however,theissuer
ofthebondisobligatedtoreturntheprincipaltotheinvestor.Thelongerthematurityofabondorofbondsheld
inabondfund,thegreaterthedegreeofapriceormarketvaluechangeresultingfromachangeininterestrates
(alsoknownasdurationrisk).Bondfundscontinuouslyreplacethebondstheyholdastheymatureandthusdonot
usuallyhavematuritydates,andarenotobligatedtoreturntheinvestor’sprincipal.Additionally,highyieldbonds
3. MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 18, 2015
61-1200 Not Available for field order.
andbondfundsthatinvestinhighyieldbondspresentgreatercreditriskthaninvestmentgradebonds.Bondand
bondfundinvestorsshouldcarefullyconsiderriskssuchas:interestraterisk,creditrisk,liquidityriskandinflationrisk
beforeinvestinginaparticularbondorbondfund.
AllindexreferencesandperformancecalculationsarebasedoninformationprovidedthroughBloomberg.Bloomberg
isaproviderofreal-timeandarchivedfinancialandmarketdata,pricing,trading,analyticsandnews.
StandardandPoor’s500Index®(S&P500®)isacapitalization-weightedindexof500stocks.Theindexisdesignedto
measureperformanceofthebroaddomesticeconomythroughchangesintheaggregatemarketvalueof500stocks
representingallmajorindustries.
Standard&Poor’sofferssectorindicesontheS&P500basedupontheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(GICS®).
ThisstandardisjointlymaintainedbyStandard&Poor’sandMSCI.Eachstockisclassifiedintooneof10sectors,24
industrygroups,67industriesand147sub-industriesaccordingtotheirlargestsourceofrevenue.Standard&Poor’s
andMSCIjointlydetermineallclassifications.The10sectorsareConsumerDiscretionary,ConsumerStaples,Energy,
Financials,HealthCare,Industrials,InformationTechnology,Materials,TelecommunicationServicesandUtilities.
TheMSCIEAFEIndexmeasureinternationalequityperformance.ItcomprisestheMSCIcountryindicesthatrepresent
developedmarketsoutsideofNorthAmerica:Europe,AustralasiaandtheFarEast.
BarclaysCapitalUSAggregateBondIndex isabenchmarkindexcomposedofUSsecuritiesinTreasury,Government-
Related,Corporate,andSecuritizedsectors.Itincludessecuritiesthatareofinvestment-gradequalityorbetter,have
atleastoneyeartomaturity,andhaveanoutstandingparvalueofatleast$250million.
The10-yearTreasuryNoteRateistheyieldonU.S.Government-issued10-yeardebt.
TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)istheintergovernmentalorganizationthatoverseestheglobalfinancial
systembyfollowingthemacroeconomicpoliciesofitsmembercountries,inparticularthosewithanimpacton
exchangerateandthebalanceofpayments.
TheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)istheinstitutionoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)whichadministersthemonetary
policyofthe17EUeurozonememberstates.
TheUniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndexisaconsumerconfidenceindexpublishedmonthlybythe
UniversityofMichiganandThomsonReuters.Atleast500telephoneinterviewsareconductedeachmonthofa
UnitedStatessample.50corequestionsareasked.
TheU.S.DepartmentofLaborProducerPriceIndex(PPI)programmeasurestheaveragechangeovertimeinthe
sellingpricesreceivedbydomesticproducersfortheiroutput.ThepricesincludedinthePPIarefromthefirst
commercialtransactionformanyproductsandsomeservices.
Directorate-GeneraloftheEuropeanCommissionlocatedinLuxembourg.Itsmainresponsibilitiesaretoprovide
statisticalinformationtotheinstitutionsoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)andtopromotetheharmonizationof
statisticalmethodsacrossitsmemberstatesandcandidatesforaccessionaswellasEFTAcountries.
ThetroikaisatermforthethreeorganizationswhichhavethemostpoweroverGreece’sfinancialfutureas
definedwithintheEuropeanUnion.ThethreegroupsaretheEuropeanCommission(EC),theInternational
MonetaryFund(IMF)andtheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).
TheNationalFederationofIndependentBusinessisasmallbusinessassociationrepresentingsmalland
independentbusinesses.Anonprofit,nonpartisanorganizationfoundedin1943,NFIBrepresentstheconsensus
viewsofitsmembersinWashingtonandall50statecapitals.
TheMarkitPurchasingManagers’Indicesaremonthlyeconomicsurveysofselectedcompanies.Theyprovide
insightintotheprivatesectoreconomybytrackingvariablessuchasoutput,neworders,employmentandprices
acrosskeysectors.