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CRISIS OF GLOBAL ECONOMY
            and
 ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC
        STRATEGIES


 Marco Valeri, Maria Lucia Faccio, Silvia
              De Silvestris
CRISIS OF GLOBAL
   ECONOMY
STEP 1:
SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS
 When?
• THE IMMEDIATE CAUSE OR TRIGGER OF THE CRISIS
WAS THE BURSTING OF THE UNITED STATES
HOUSING BUBBLE WHICH PEAKED IN 2005–2006.

• HIGH DEFAULT RATES, RELATED TO "SUBPRIME"
AND ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES, BEGAN TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THEREAFTER AND,
EVENTUALLY, THE SUBPRIME CRISIS EXPLODED IN
2007, SPREADING WORLDWIDE.
Comparison: two models of mortgage lending
How it went wrong
Consequences

• Failure of many Banks and Financial Institutes



• Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers and AIG (and many other
  Financial Institutes) saved by the Us Government

• Contagion to the rest of the world
Step 2:
 Financial Contagion and Real Economy

1) Crisis of Banks and Financial Institutes in
   America and in Europe
2) Credit crunch
Consequences on Real Economy
 Crisis of European Financial Institutes and Banks

 Crisis of the Financial Markets

 Increase of failure rate in business sector

 Increase of unemployment and discharges

 Reduction of private consumption

 Reduction of private investments

 Reduction of saving rate and increase of private debt
… and finally

Reduction of GDP growth rates all over the world
Step 3:
        European Sovereign-Debt Crisis

FROM LATE 2009, FEARS OF AN EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN-
   DEBT CRISIS DEVELOPED AMONG THE INVESTORS



                                 WHY?




•   RISE OF PRIVATE AND GOVERNMENT DEBT LEVELS

•   A WAVE OF DOWNGRADING OF GOVERNMENT DEBTS IN SOME EUROPEAN
    COUNTRIES
IRELAND




• THE IRISH SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS WAS BASED ON THE STATE
GUARANTEEING THE SIX MAIN IRISH-BASED BANKS WHO HAD FINANCED
A PROPERTY BUBBLE

• THE ECONOMY COLLAPSED DURING 2008 AND IRELAND WAS FORCE TO
RECEIVE A LOAN FROM INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) TO SAVE ITS
BANK SYSTEM AND ITS ECONOMY.
PORTUGAL




 IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2011, PORTUGAL REQUESTED A €78 BILLION
   IMF-EU BAILOUT PACKAGE IN A BID TO STABILIZE ITS PUBLIC
                           FINANCES
GREECE




UNSUSTAINABLE PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC SECTOR WAGES AND PENSION
COMMITMENTS DROVE THE DEBT INCREASE AND PUT GREECE INTO ONE OF ITS
DEEPEST CRISIS EVER
GREECE RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT LOAN TO SAVE ITSELF FROM DEFAULT.

 ON THE OTHER SIDE, IT WAS FORCED BY IMF, EUROPEAN COMMISSION
AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO ADOPT A SEVERE AUSTERITY
PROGRAM THAT HAS PUT GREECE INTO A DRAMATIC ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL SITUATION
SPAIN AND ITALY




SPECULATION HAS BEGUN TO ATTACK EVEN BIG ECONOMIES AS SPAIN AND
                            ITALY
ITALY
SPREAD
CRISIS OF EURO SYSTEM




• THE STRUCTURE OF THE EUROZONE AS A MONETARY UNION WITHOUT FISCAL
UNION CONTRIBUTED TO THE CRISIS.

• THE CRISIS IS MENACING EURO SYSTEM FROM ITS FOUNDATIONS
EU EMERGENCY MEASURES
1) EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY FACILITY

3) EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILIZATION
   MECHANISM

5) EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MEASURES

7) EUROPEAN STABILITY MECHANISM (ESM)

9) EUROPEAN FISCAL COMPACT

11) ANTI-SPREAD SCHIELD
PROPOSED LONG-TERM SOLUTION


 EUROPEAN FISCAL UNION

 EUROBONDS AND PROJECT BONDS

 EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND
Crisis
 Let’s not pretend that things
 will change if we keep doing
 the same things. A crisis can
    be a real blessing to any
 person, to any nation. For all
     crises bring progress.
    Creativity is born from
  anguish, just like the day is
 born form the dark night. It’s
in crisis that inventive is born,
as well as discoveries, and big
  strategies. Who overcomes
   crisis, overcomes himself,
  without getting overcome.
       (Albert Einstein)
De-growth

                                  Social movements




                                 Decroissance (France)
Decrescita (Italy)
1st Conference on Economic Degrowth
for Ecological Sustainability and Social
        Equity, Paris April 2008
2° Conference on Economic
   Degrowth for Ecological
Sustainabiliy – Barcellona 2010




                                  3° Conferenza Internazionale
                                  su Decrescita e Sostenibilità
                                  Ecologica ed Equità Sociale –
                                    Venezia, Settembre 2012
Unsustainaible growth
Serge Latouche
Growth for growth’s sake
Consumption of natural resources       Consumerism




                           Pollution
The strategy of Latouche

• Theoretical approatch
(Le pari de la décroissance, Paris 2006)
• Political program
(L'invention de l'économie, 2005)
“The virtuous circles of eight R’s”:
Abuse of resources
Inter-dependent principles
• Re-evaluate
• Re-conceptualize
• Re-structure
• Re-localize
• Re-distribute
Inequality, concentration of income

                              Conflict for resources
Political program:
• Taxes on transport
• Taxes on global financial transaction
• support of peasant agricolture
• reduction of working time with a redefinition
of work that will make jobs available to all
• investment on the production of relational
goods
• heavy penalties on spending for advertising
Sustainable technology
Sharing
The “concrete utopia” of degrowth
Slow movement      Downshifting           Swapping




         Self-production          Time bank
The Easterlin Paradox suggests that a
society's economic development and
its average level of happiness are not
   linked. It affirms the absence of a
 significant relationship between the
  improvement in happiness and the
 long term rate of growth of GDP per
                   capita.
The Wellbeing &
     The Quality of life
A Comparison between 2 economic
          approaches
FULLFILL HUMAN NEEDS
    GOODS           COMMODITIES




 • Material and    • material means
immaterial means
Traditional Economic theory
• ECONOMIC SYSTEM & APPROACH TO
  POVERTY

1) Production    People--Commodities



2) Consumption   People-Commodities
Traditional theory
Gross Domestic Product = Commodity or Service * its
                        Price




 • WEALTHY = WELLBEING

  (INCOME,GDP) = (STANDARD OF LIVING)
A question for you
• A teacher pay a housemaid for cleaning his
  house
  This service enter into the count of the GDP
                     BUT
what happens in the economy if the teacher
  get marry with his housemaid and she
  continues to clean the house?
A service made for free (offered by the wife in the
  cleaning of the house ) is not taken into account in
  the count of GDP.
              --- GDP decreases

                It is equal to say

          WELLBEING decreases!!!!!
New Economic Theories
                  CRITIC

Income or wealth is an inadequate proxy of
               the wellbeing

In the traditional count of the wellbeing of a
 Country we leave out everything that is not
            reducible to commodity
• How these services should be valued?

social and affective relations
Cares for children by parents
Cares for elder people by relatives

There is NO PRICE for this fundamental
 services
Review the concept of well being

       • Shift the attention on PEOPLE

• Focus the attention on the importance of the
   TYPE OF LIFE that people are able to lead.

                    Ex. 2 people
               Having Same income
              One is healthy, one is ill
Amartya Sen - Capability Approach



   • WEALTHY ------------ WELLBEING

Multidimensional nature of the quality of life
     Everyone has own characteristics
Amartya Sen - Capability approach


• “Beings and Doings” (Stati di Essere e di
  Fare)

                Ex. of achievment


          To be /Not to be well- fed
           To be /Not to be learned
        To be/ Not to be in good health
EXAMPLES
       CNEL - ISTAT                 CITY OF BRISTOL



• 12 wellbeing dimensions      • Annual survey

• 134 statistical indicators   • “Quality of life in your
                                 neighbourhood”
Faculty of Economics at Roma3

• Research Project “The wellbeing and the
  quality of life in the city halls of Rome”

• Multidimensional analysis

• Bottom up method : Focus group
Education & Culture
Environment & Health
Mobility & Safety
Political voice, social connections
Women condition
THANKS FOR YOUR
   ATTENTION

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Crisis of global economy and alternative economic strategies

  • 1. CRISIS OF GLOBAL ECONOMY and ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC STRATEGIES Marco Valeri, Maria Lucia Faccio, Silvia De Silvestris
  • 4.  When? • THE IMMEDIATE CAUSE OR TRIGGER OF THE CRISIS WAS THE BURSTING OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSING BUBBLE WHICH PEAKED IN 2005–2006. • HIGH DEFAULT RATES, RELATED TO "SUBPRIME" AND ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES, BEGAN TO INCREASE QUICKLY THEREAFTER AND, EVENTUALLY, THE SUBPRIME CRISIS EXPLODED IN 2007, SPREADING WORLDWIDE.
  • 5. Comparison: two models of mortgage lending
  • 6. How it went wrong
  • 7. Consequences • Failure of many Banks and Financial Institutes • Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers and AIG (and many other Financial Institutes) saved by the Us Government • Contagion to the rest of the world
  • 8. Step 2: Financial Contagion and Real Economy 1) Crisis of Banks and Financial Institutes in America and in Europe
  • 10. Consequences on Real Economy  Crisis of European Financial Institutes and Banks  Crisis of the Financial Markets  Increase of failure rate in business sector  Increase of unemployment and discharges  Reduction of private consumption  Reduction of private investments  Reduction of saving rate and increase of private debt
  • 11. … and finally Reduction of GDP growth rates all over the world
  • 12.
  • 13. Step 3: European Sovereign-Debt Crisis FROM LATE 2009, FEARS OF AN EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN- DEBT CRISIS DEVELOPED AMONG THE INVESTORS WHY? • RISE OF PRIVATE AND GOVERNMENT DEBT LEVELS • A WAVE OF DOWNGRADING OF GOVERNMENT DEBTS IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
  • 14. IRELAND • THE IRISH SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS WAS BASED ON THE STATE GUARANTEEING THE SIX MAIN IRISH-BASED BANKS WHO HAD FINANCED A PROPERTY BUBBLE • THE ECONOMY COLLAPSED DURING 2008 AND IRELAND WAS FORCE TO RECEIVE A LOAN FROM INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) TO SAVE ITS BANK SYSTEM AND ITS ECONOMY.
  • 15. PORTUGAL  IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2011, PORTUGAL REQUESTED A €78 BILLION IMF-EU BAILOUT PACKAGE IN A BID TO STABILIZE ITS PUBLIC FINANCES
  • 16. GREECE UNSUSTAINABLE PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC SECTOR WAGES AND PENSION COMMITMENTS DROVE THE DEBT INCREASE AND PUT GREECE INTO ONE OF ITS DEEPEST CRISIS EVER
  • 17. GREECE RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT LOAN TO SAVE ITSELF FROM DEFAULT.  ON THE OTHER SIDE, IT WAS FORCED BY IMF, EUROPEAN COMMISSION AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO ADOPT A SEVERE AUSTERITY PROGRAM THAT HAS PUT GREECE INTO A DRAMATIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SITUATION
  • 18. SPAIN AND ITALY SPECULATION HAS BEGUN TO ATTACK EVEN BIG ECONOMIES AS SPAIN AND ITALY
  • 19. ITALY
  • 21. CRISIS OF EURO SYSTEM • THE STRUCTURE OF THE EUROZONE AS A MONETARY UNION WITHOUT FISCAL UNION CONTRIBUTED TO THE CRISIS. • THE CRISIS IS MENACING EURO SYSTEM FROM ITS FOUNDATIONS
  • 22. EU EMERGENCY MEASURES 1) EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY FACILITY 3) EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILIZATION MECHANISM 5) EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MEASURES 7) EUROPEAN STABILITY MECHANISM (ESM) 9) EUROPEAN FISCAL COMPACT 11) ANTI-SPREAD SCHIELD
  • 23. PROPOSED LONG-TERM SOLUTION  EUROPEAN FISCAL UNION  EUROBONDS AND PROJECT BONDS  EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND
  • 24.
  • 25. Crisis Let’s not pretend that things will change if we keep doing the same things. A crisis can be a real blessing to any person, to any nation. For all crises bring progress. Creativity is born from anguish, just like the day is born form the dark night. It’s in crisis that inventive is born, as well as discoveries, and big strategies. Who overcomes crisis, overcomes himself, without getting overcome. (Albert Einstein)
  • 26. De-growth Social movements Decroissance (France) Decrescita (Italy)
  • 27. 1st Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity, Paris April 2008
  • 28. 2° Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainabiliy – Barcellona 2010 3° Conferenza Internazionale su Decrescita e Sostenibilità Ecologica ed Equità Sociale – Venezia, Settembre 2012
  • 31. Growth for growth’s sake Consumption of natural resources Consumerism Pollution
  • 32. The strategy of Latouche • Theoretical approatch (Le pari de la décroissance, Paris 2006) • Political program (L'invention de l'économie, 2005)
  • 33. “The virtuous circles of eight R’s”:
  • 35. Inter-dependent principles • Re-evaluate • Re-conceptualize • Re-structure • Re-localize • Re-distribute
  • 36. Inequality, concentration of income Conflict for resources
  • 37. Political program: • Taxes on transport • Taxes on global financial transaction • support of peasant agricolture • reduction of working time with a redefinition of work that will make jobs available to all • investment on the production of relational goods • heavy penalties on spending for advertising
  • 41. Slow movement Downshifting Swapping Self-production Time bank
  • 42. The Easterlin Paradox suggests that a society's economic development and its average level of happiness are not linked. It affirms the absence of a significant relationship between the improvement in happiness and the long term rate of growth of GDP per capita.
  • 43. The Wellbeing & The Quality of life A Comparison between 2 economic approaches
  • 44. FULLFILL HUMAN NEEDS GOODS COMMODITIES • Material and • material means immaterial means
  • 45. Traditional Economic theory • ECONOMIC SYSTEM & APPROACH TO POVERTY 1) Production People--Commodities 2) Consumption People-Commodities
  • 46. Traditional theory Gross Domestic Product = Commodity or Service * its Price • WEALTHY = WELLBEING (INCOME,GDP) = (STANDARD OF LIVING)
  • 47. A question for you • A teacher pay a housemaid for cleaning his house This service enter into the count of the GDP BUT what happens in the economy if the teacher get marry with his housemaid and she continues to clean the house?
  • 48. A service made for free (offered by the wife in the cleaning of the house ) is not taken into account in the count of GDP. --- GDP decreases It is equal to say WELLBEING decreases!!!!!
  • 49. New Economic Theories CRITIC Income or wealth is an inadequate proxy of the wellbeing In the traditional count of the wellbeing of a Country we leave out everything that is not reducible to commodity
  • 50. • How these services should be valued? social and affective relations Cares for children by parents Cares for elder people by relatives There is NO PRICE for this fundamental services
  • 51. Review the concept of well being • Shift the attention on PEOPLE • Focus the attention on the importance of the TYPE OF LIFE that people are able to lead. Ex. 2 people Having Same income One is healthy, one is ill
  • 52. Amartya Sen - Capability Approach • WEALTHY ------------ WELLBEING Multidimensional nature of the quality of life Everyone has own characteristics
  • 53. Amartya Sen - Capability approach • “Beings and Doings” (Stati di Essere e di Fare) Ex. of achievment To be /Not to be well- fed To be /Not to be learned To be/ Not to be in good health
  • 54. EXAMPLES CNEL - ISTAT CITY OF BRISTOL • 12 wellbeing dimensions • Annual survey • 134 statistical indicators • “Quality of life in your neighbourhood”
  • 55. Faculty of Economics at Roma3 • Research Project “The wellbeing and the quality of life in the city halls of Rome” • Multidimensional analysis • Bottom up method : Focus group
  • 59. Political voice, social connections
  • 61. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION