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This	
  project	
  has	
  received	
  funding	
  from	
  the	
  European	
  Union’s	
  Seventh	
  Programme	
  for	
  Research,	
  
Technological	
  Development	
  and	
  Demostra>on	
  under	
  Grant	
  Agreement	
  No.	
  603458	
  
Prof.	
  Paolo	
  Ciavola,	
  Università	
  di	
  Ferrara-­‐CFR,	
  Ferrara,	
  Italy	
  
cvp@unife.it	
  
Vulnerability	
  of	
  the	
  Bangladesh	
  Coastline	
  to	
  
Inunda>on	
  Under	
  Cyclone	
  Ac>vity:	
  	
  
Past	
  Records	
  and	
  DRR	
  Strategies	
  at	
  Sandwip	
  
Island	
  
	
  P.	
  CIAVOLA	
  (UNIFE-­‐CFR),	
  	
  M.M.	
  UDDIN	
  (UNIFE-­‐CFR)	
  ,	
  	
  E.	
  DUO	
  (UNIFE-­‐
CFR)	
  ,	
  B.	
  LEE	
  (WMO),	
  S.H.M	
  FAKHRUDDIN	
  (WMO)	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Problem	
  statement	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Problem	
  statement	
  
Cyclones Tracking Over Bangladesh During the
Twentieth Century
Frequency	
  of	
  cyclones/severe	
  
cyclones	
  over	
  the	
  Bay	
  of	
  
Bengal	
  in	
  different	
  months	
  
during	
  1891-­‐2010	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Most	
  important	
  recent	
  events	
  
Dura/on:	
  29-­‐30	
  April,	
  1991	
  
Damage:	
   	
  widespread	
  damage	
  
Death: 	
  138,882	
  people	
  
Total	
  Loss:	
  US	
  $	
  2.07	
  billion	
  	
  	
  
Storm	
  Surge:	
  4-­‐6	
  meter	
  	
  
	
  
Dura/on:	
  14-­‐16	
  Nov,	
  2007	
  
Killed:	
   	
  	
  3,406	
  peoples	
  	
  
Injured: 	
  	
  55282	
  
Storm	
  Surge:	
  5-­‐6	
  m	
  high	
  	
  
	
  
Source:	
  DDM	
  website	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Study	
  Site:	
  Sandwip	
  Island	
  
•  The	
  eleva>on	
  of	
  the	
  island	
  is	
  
lower	
  than	
  5	
  m,	
  and	
  most	
  
commonly	
  2-­‐3	
  m.	
  
Addi>onally,	
  the	
  sediments	
  
making	
  up	
  the	
  islands	
  are	
  
very	
  soh,	
  unconsolidated	
  silts	
  
and	
  clays.	
  	
  
•  Thus	
  the	
  landforms	
  of	
  the	
  ac>ve	
  delta	
  are	
  extremely	
  
changeable	
  and	
  are	
  easily	
  reshaped	
  by,	
  >dal	
  ac>on,	
  river	
  
discharge	
  and	
  ajack	
  of	
  cyclones	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  historical	
  records	
  of	
  cyclone	
  impact	
  on	
  the	
  
island?	
  
•  What	
  DRR	
  measures	
  were	
  present	
  when	
  historical	
  
events	
  occurred?	
  What	
  are	
  present	
  now?	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  current	
  coastline	
  change	
  along	
  the	
  island?	
  
•  Set-­‐up	
  of	
  an	
  opera>onal	
  Early	
  Warning	
  System	
  at	
  a	
  
demostra>ve	
  level	
  using	
  DELFT-­‐FEWS	
  
•  Calibra>on	
  of	
  the	
  EWS	
  following	
  installa>on	
  of	
  a	
  local	
  
>de	
  gauge	
  and	
  repeated	
  surveys	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  local	
  percep>on	
  of	
  people	
  occupying	
  the	
  
island?	
  How	
  do	
  they	
  cope	
  with	
  disasters?	
  
Research	
  ques>ons	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
•  Analysis	
  of	
  records	
  available	
  from	
  Bangladesh	
  
ins>tu>ons.	
  
•  Topographic	
  survey	
  of	
  eroding	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  island	
  
•  Analyses	
  of	
  Landsat	
  imagery	
  (1978,	
  1989,	
  2001,	
  2006,	
  
2014)	
  for	
  shoreline	
  change	
  and	
  land-­‐cover	
  change	
  
•  ASTER	
  DEM	
  of	
  the	
  island	
  (30	
  m	
  resolu>on)	
  
•  Ground-­‐truthing	
  of	
  	
  DEM	
  with	
  comparison	
  with	
  
surveys	
  
•  43	
  interviews	
  to	
  key-­‐end	
  users	
  from	
  the	
  island	
  and	
  	
  
150	
  interviews	
  to	
  local	
  residents,	
  focussing	
  on	
  the	
  
percep>on	
  if	
  they	
  are	
  at	
  risk	
  and	
  how	
  they	
  cope	
  with	
  
problems	
  like	
  coastal	
  erosion	
  and	
  cyclones	
  
Methods	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Physical	
  Characteris>cs	
  (surveys)	
  
808/07/15
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
908/07/15
Cyclone surge level
Cyclone surge level
Cyclone surge level
Cyclone surge level
Cyclone surge level
Physical	
  Characteris>cs	
  (surveys)	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Evolu>on	
  of	
  the	
  island	
  (Landsat)	
  
Year Difference
(km
2
)
Erosion
(Km
2
)
Erosion
Rate(km
2
/
yr)
Accretion
(km
2
)
Accretion
Rate km/y
1978-1989 -32.51 34.5 3.128 1.907 0.173
1989-2001 26.379 30.916 2.576 57.322 4.776
2001-2006 -11.955 23.133 4.626 11.286 2.257
2006-2014 -36.46 39.572 4.946 3.036 0.379
Erosion	
   Accre>on	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Land-­‐use	
  change	
  (Landsat)	
  
Occupa>on	
  growing	
  from	
  7%	
  (1989)	
  to	
  26%	
  
(2001)	
  to	
  37%	
  (2014)	
  of	
  the	
  total	
  area	
  in	
  those	
  
three	
  years	
  
Agricultural	
  land	
  reduced	
  drama>cally	
  from	
  64%	
  
in	
  1989	
  to	
  23%	
  in	
  2001	
  due	
  to	
  conversion	
  into	
  
sejlements	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Coping	
  with	
  coastal	
  erosion	
  
08/07/15 12
Erosion	
  
08/07/15
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Surge	
  Flood	
  Risk	
  
08/07/15
13
Noembankment
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Possible	
  cyclone	
  inunda>on	
  
08/07/15
3 meter surge
height
91 / 227 (km2)
6 meter surge
height
171 / 227 (km2)
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
Coping	
  with	
  cyclones	
  
08/07/15 15
Erosion	
  
08/07/15
Management	
  ac/ons	
  
implemented	
  aGer	
  
disasters	
  
	
  
Construc>on	
  of	
  	
  cross	
  dam	
  
	
  
Island	
  encircling	
  embankment	
  
	
  
Warning	
  system	
  accuracy	
  and	
  >mely	
  dissemina>on	
  
	
  
Risk	
  relevant	
  educa>on	
  &	
  adapta>on	
  training	
  
	
  
Transport,	
  health	
  and	
  communica>on	
  development	
  
Community	
  Demands	
  	
  
36th	
  IAHR	
  World	
  Congress	
  
28	
  June	
  –	
  3	
  July,	
  2015,	
  The	
  Hague,	
  the	
  Netherlands	
  
•  Island	
  with	
  high	
  coastal	
  dynamics,	
  the	
  island	
  has	
  always	
  
existed,	
  there	
  is	
  evidence	
  in	
  historical	
  documents	
  since	
  the	
  
16th	
  century.	
  
•  In	
  the	
  1990s	
  changed	
  shape	
  extending	
  northwards.	
  The	
  1991	
  
cyclone	
  might	
  have	
  played	
  a	
  role	
  in	
  this.	
  
•  In	
  the	
  same	
  period	
  there	
  was	
  a	
  change	
  in	
  land-­‐use	
  conver>ng	
  
agricultural	
  land	
  into	
  forest	
  and	
  there	
  was	
  an	
  increase	
  in	
  
sejlements	
  in	
  the	
  western	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  island	
  
•  Simple	
  bath-­‐tub	
  modelling	
  shows	
  that	
  this	
  is	
  the	
  area	
  most	
  
vulnerable	
  to	
  cyclones	
  as	
  flooding	
  
•  Future	
  work	
  will	
  included	
  the	
  set-­‐up	
  of	
  an	
  opera>onal	
  Early	
  
Warning	
  System	
  at	
  a	
  demonstra>ve	
  level	
  using	
  DELFT-­‐FEWS	
  
Conclusions	
  
Looking	
  forward	
  to	
  a	
  fruioul	
  
coopera>on!	
  
	
  
	
  
! !
Thanks	
  for	
  your	
  ajen>on	
  
Accreting mudflat western side of Sandwip, February 2014

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IAHR 2015 - Vulnerability of the Bangladesh coastline to inundation under cyclone activity, Ciavola, 30062015

  • 1. This  project  has  received  funding  from  the  European  Union’s  Seventh  Programme  for  Research,   Technological  Development  and  Demostra>on  under  Grant  Agreement  No.  603458   Prof.  Paolo  Ciavola,  Università  di  Ferrara-­‐CFR,  Ferrara,  Italy   cvp@unife.it   Vulnerability  of  the  Bangladesh  Coastline  to   Inunda>on  Under  Cyclone  Ac>vity:     Past  Records  and  DRR  Strategies  at  Sandwip   Island    P.  CIAVOLA  (UNIFE-­‐CFR),    M.M.  UDDIN  (UNIFE-­‐CFR)  ,    E.  DUO  (UNIFE-­‐ CFR)  ,  B.  LEE  (WMO),  S.H.M  FAKHRUDDIN  (WMO)  
  • 2. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Problem  statement  
  • 3. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Problem  statement   Cyclones Tracking Over Bangladesh During the Twentieth Century Frequency  of  cyclones/severe   cyclones  over  the  Bay  of   Bengal  in  different  months   during  1891-­‐2010  
  • 4. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Most  important  recent  events   Dura/on:  29-­‐30  April,  1991   Damage:    widespread  damage   Death:  138,882  people   Total  Loss:  US  $  2.07  billion       Storm  Surge:  4-­‐6  meter       Dura/on:  14-­‐16  Nov,  2007   Killed:      3,406  peoples     Injured:    55282   Storm  Surge:  5-­‐6  m  high       Source:  DDM  website  
  • 5. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Study  Site:  Sandwip  Island   •  The  eleva>on  of  the  island  is   lower  than  5  m,  and  most   commonly  2-­‐3  m.   Addi>onally,  the  sediments   making  up  the  islands  are   very  soh,  unconsolidated  silts   and  clays.     •  Thus  the  landforms  of  the  ac>ve  delta  are  extremely   changeable  and  are  easily  reshaped  by,  >dal  ac>on,  river   discharge  and  ajack  of  cyclones  
  • 6. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   •  What  is  the  historical  records  of  cyclone  impact  on  the   island?   •  What  DRR  measures  were  present  when  historical   events  occurred?  What  are  present  now?   •  What  is  the  current  coastline  change  along  the  island?   •  Set-­‐up  of  an  opera>onal  Early  Warning  System  at  a   demostra>ve  level  using  DELFT-­‐FEWS   •  Calibra>on  of  the  EWS  following  installa>on  of  a  local   >de  gauge  and  repeated  surveys   •  What  is  the  local  percep>on  of  people  occupying  the   island?  How  do  they  cope  with  disasters?   Research  ques>ons  
  • 7. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   •  Analysis  of  records  available  from  Bangladesh   ins>tu>ons.   •  Topographic  survey  of  eroding  part  of  the  island   •  Analyses  of  Landsat  imagery  (1978,  1989,  2001,  2006,   2014)  for  shoreline  change  and  land-­‐cover  change   •  ASTER  DEM  of  the  island  (30  m  resolu>on)   •  Ground-­‐truthing  of    DEM  with  comparison  with   surveys   •  43  interviews  to  key-­‐end  users  from  the  island  and     150  interviews  to  local  residents,  focussing  on  the   percep>on  if  they  are  at  risk  and  how  they  cope  with   problems  like  coastal  erosion  and  cyclones   Methods  
  • 8. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Physical  Characteris>cs  (surveys)   808/07/15
  • 9. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   908/07/15 Cyclone surge level Cyclone surge level Cyclone surge level Cyclone surge level Cyclone surge level Physical  Characteris>cs  (surveys)  
  • 10. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Evolu>on  of  the  island  (Landsat)   Year Difference (km 2 ) Erosion (Km 2 ) Erosion Rate(km 2 / yr) Accretion (km 2 ) Accretion Rate km/y 1978-1989 -32.51 34.5 3.128 1.907 0.173 1989-2001 26.379 30.916 2.576 57.322 4.776 2001-2006 -11.955 23.133 4.626 11.286 2.257 2006-2014 -36.46 39.572 4.946 3.036 0.379 Erosion   Accre>on  
  • 11. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Land-­‐use  change  (Landsat)   Occupa>on  growing  from  7%  (1989)  to  26%   (2001)  to  37%  (2014)  of  the  total  area  in  those   three  years   Agricultural  land  reduced  drama>cally  from  64%   in  1989  to  23%  in  2001  due  to  conversion  into   sejlements  
  • 12. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Coping  with  coastal  erosion   08/07/15 12 Erosion   08/07/15
  • 13. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Surge  Flood  Risk   08/07/15 13 Noembankment
  • 14. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Possible  cyclone  inunda>on   08/07/15 3 meter surge height 91 / 227 (km2) 6 meter surge height 171 / 227 (km2)
  • 15. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   Coping  with  cyclones   08/07/15 15 Erosion   08/07/15 Management  ac/ons   implemented  aGer   disasters     Construc>on  of    cross  dam     Island  encircling  embankment     Warning  system  accuracy  and  >mely  dissemina>on     Risk  relevant  educa>on  &  adapta>on  training     Transport,  health  and  communica>on  development   Community  Demands    
  • 16. 36th  IAHR  World  Congress   28  June  –  3  July,  2015,  The  Hague,  the  Netherlands   •  Island  with  high  coastal  dynamics,  the  island  has  always   existed,  there  is  evidence  in  historical  documents  since  the   16th  century.   •  In  the  1990s  changed  shape  extending  northwards.  The  1991   cyclone  might  have  played  a  role  in  this.   •  In  the  same  period  there  was  a  change  in  land-­‐use  conver>ng   agricultural  land  into  forest  and  there  was  an  increase  in   sejlements  in  the  western  part  of  the  island   •  Simple  bath-­‐tub  modelling  shows  that  this  is  the  area  most   vulnerable  to  cyclones  as  flooding   •  Future  work  will  included  the  set-­‐up  of  an  opera>onal  Early   Warning  System  at  a  demonstra>ve  level  using  DELFT-­‐FEWS   Conclusions  
  • 17. Looking  forward  to  a  fruioul   coopera>on!       ! ! Thanks  for  your  ajen>on   Accreting mudflat western side of Sandwip, February 2014