1. NextGen Networks 2 - LTE
What’s changing mobile IP?
16 November 2011 - Frédéric PUJOL
f.pujol@idate.org

2. Content
► Introduction
► Mobile connectivity & smartphones
► LTE devices
► LTE networks status & tariffing
► LTE spectrum: valuation and fragmentation risks
► Conclusions

3. 3

4. Introduction

5. Mobile status: Europe vs. USA
Mobile turnover +1% (2010/2009) +5,2% (2010/2009)
-3% (2Q11/2Q10) +6% (2Q11/2Q10)
Data revenues share (end-2010) 26.2% 33.2%
29-32% (BoA) 37% (BoA)
Mobile CAPEX Almost flat +18% (2Q11/2Q10)
LTE launch date/ pop. covered End 2009 (Sweden) End 2010
Limited launch except in VZW: 110 M pop (05/2011)
Germany 66% pop mid-2012
Mobile ARPU (end-2010) $22.5 $50 (-0.2% y-to-y)
Mobile penetration (end-2010) 128% 98.5%
Fragmented markets 4 carriers have 93% of the
subscribers
Smartphone penetration (end-2010) Vodafone: 19% Verizon: 32%
► The USA are clearly leading LTE deployments with massive coverage and heavy investments
Source: IDATE & BoA

6. Mobile status: GDP and mobile revenues
► Economic slowdown effect on wireless revenues
► The 2008-2009 slowdown had a significant impact on wireless revenues in Europe
Source: BoA

7. Mobile traffic increase
Mobile traffic usage is getting close to DSL Mobile data consumption trends
7-15
GB  Average traffic consumption per user observed
2010 traffic figures
in 2010
(per broadband subscription - not at scale)
Teliasonera Sweden: 14 - 15 GB
7 GB
Yota Russia: 13 GB*
1-2 Clearwire : 7 GB
GB
SK Telecom : 7 GB
200 CSL HK : 6 GB
MB
1 MB
Monthly cap Monthly usage
1 mn of MP3 Firtst monthly
for many 3G
Monthly usage
on DSL *One customer used 2 Terabytes of data in a single month (2010)
cap for AT&T on Clearwire’s
subscriptions network networks Source: IDATE from operators
6.6 MB per day 33 to 66 MB per day 233 MB per day 233 to 500 MB per day
Mobile broadband traffic mimics the kind of traffic seen on fixed broadband networks
► Mobile users are running similar applications as on fixed networks: IM, Skype voice call, social
Networking, video streaming…
 Facebook increased its mobile traffic consumption by 200% during the 1H2010 while Twitter
grew by 310% in the meantime (Source: Allot)
 Video represents 50% of the world's mobile traffic in 2010
► Moving from traditional voice in favor of data-centric, bandwidth-intensive applications

8. Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020
Total mobile traffic
► Total worldwide mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing an 33 fold increase
compared with 2010 figure.
► We anticipate that the total voice and data traffic will reach 45 EBytes in 2015 compared to less than
2 EBytes in 2009. The bulk of the traffic will be video traffic.
Total mobile traffic (EB per year)
140.00
120.00
100.00
Yearly traffic in EB
Europe
80.00 Americas
Asia
60.00 Rest of the world
World Network capacity units:
40.00
20.00
-
2010 2015 2020
Source: IDATE for UMTS Forum
Note: mobile traffic on licensed spectrum only (Wi-Fi excluded)

9. Mobile connectivity & smartphones

10. Mobile Internet usage: already here, and geared for growth
2010: 21.2% mobile Internet penetration, 2015: 37.0% mobile Internet penetration,
or 1.1 billion subscriptions worldwide or 2.67 billion subscriptions worldwide
► Leading region: Asia Pacific
► North America to overtake Asia Pacific by
● 27.0% penetration rate, or 691M users 2015
● largely thanks to Japan, who has close to ● North America will climb to 43.6% penetration
80% mobile Internet penetration
● Asia Pacific to grow to 39.1% penetration
► North America: 26.0% penetration rate
► EU27 will remain behind these two regions,
► EU27: 17.9% penetration rate but will enjoy healthy growth to 35.1%
Mobile Internet penetration, 2008-2010 Mobile Internet penetration, 2011-2015 forecasts
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
France Germany Italy Spain UK World Europe France Germany Italy
USA Japan South Korea Europe World Spain UK USA Japan South Korea
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE

11. Mobile connectivity devices: not just about smartphones
Connectivity devices provide the better value … and overall shipments will maintain a
compared to smartphones… steady growth
► ARPU for connectivity devices can be more ► By around 2013, embedded connectivity
than double that of smartphones devices will out-ship external ones
● Particularly strong with business use ● Decreasing module prices, user friendliness
Shipment and breakdown of mobile connectivity devices, 2011-2015
● Also means they consume more traffic (thousands)
► Tariffs for users are also more favourable
● Per GB price cheaper for connectivity devices
● Smartphone data tariffs are still unstable
Price per GB comparison between devices, UK
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Smartpho ne iP ad Do ngles Netbo o ks/lapto ps
Note: the tariff with the best per GB value is shown in this figure
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE

12. Smartphone shipment penetration forecast
Advanced countries: US, EU5 and Japan Emerging countries: BRIC
► USA: Currently leads, and will continue to lead ► Brazil: Roughly in line with worldwide
smartphones shipment penetration penetration
► EU5: Whilst behind the US, will show steady ► China: Whilst they have a massive population,
growth higher than worldwide penetration smartphone penetration expected to remain
► Japan: Starts as laggard, but expected to relatively low for now
become one of the leaders in next few years ► Russia: Expected to show steady growth, a little
● Smartphone shipment penetration was lower than behind China
that of the world up to 2010, but by end 2011, ► India: Expected to show the least and slowest
expected to be one of the leaders growth of penetration
% of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015 % of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015
70% 60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World EU5 USA Japan World Brazil Russia India China
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE

13. Smartphone shipment forecast
The heavyweights: China, US, EU5 Remaining BRIC countries and Japan
► 2011: US leads number of smartphones ► Compared to China, the other BRIC
shipped, followed by the EU5 and then China countries have much smaller total
► 2013: Whilst US continues to lead, China shipments
catches up with EU5 ► Japan, despite its high smartphone
► 2015: China to overtake the US to become penetration rate, remains low in terms of
the nation to ship the most smartphones total shipment numbers due to the country
► China, due to its massive population, will itself being much smaller. They are,
ship the most smartphones despite their however, ahead than any of the EU5 nations
lower penetration rates on an individual basis.
Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015 Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015
120 000 120 000
100 000 100 000
80 000 80 000
60 000 60 000
40 000 40 000
20 000 20 000
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China USA EU5 Japan Brazil Russia India
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE

14. LTE devices

15. LTE devices: positioning and strategies of main players
 LTE devices roadmap
 Already close to 200 LTE
devices available
LTE: a game-changer in the mobile industry?
► For chipset manufacturers, it will be seen that, in order to be able to succeed, the increased capabilities of mobile devices
increasingly require competencies in various areas not limited to baseband. In our judgement, this will see Qualcomm,
NVIDIA and ST-Ericsson establishing themselves as Tier 1 players in this market
► For mobile device manufacturers, the challenges will be to have the best possible integration of 4G into existing devices,
with, of course, a series of challenges: technical, cost, IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and Time To Market. Each of the
device manufacturers has so far adopted different strategies. Some, such as Apple, have adopted a cautious approach,
waiting for the technology to mature for mass market adoption. On the other hand, device vendors such as HTC or
Samsung and LG have entered the market very early in an attempt to differentiate themselves and increase market share.
In the long term, however, we do not see early LTE adoption into devices as an entry barrier for newcomers
Source: IDATE

16. Review of LTE devices availability
Dongles & mobile hot-spots Mobile handsets: early developments
Samsung’s first LTE dongle Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot Early LTE handsets:
Samsung Craft and
Galaxy Indulge
AT&T’s first smartphones
HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first
LTE Smartphone
AT&T’s first mobile hotspot and dongle
 Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to be popular  Voice supported on 3G networks
Tablets Other connected devices
ZyXEL LTE fixed router
Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway
Motorola Xoom tablet Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1
 Tablets are an important part of the device offer  Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon)
►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles - Source: GSA 11/2011
►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35

17. Review of LTE devices availability
USB dongles and mobile hotspots
Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot
Manufacturer Device name Chipset used Modes Bands Launch date
Epicom Unknown Qualcomm Unknown Unknown Q3 2011
Huawei Huawei Mobile WiFi E589 Qualcomm MDM 9200 LTE/HSPA/GSM 2600, 2100, 1800, 900 MHz Q3 2011
Novatel Novatel MiFi 4510L Qualcomm MDM 9600 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE Q1 2011
Samsung Samsung SCH-LC11 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE March 2011
 Thanks to more mature chipsets being available commercially and more LTE networks being launched worldwide, the
device market has evolved faster than expected
 The first multi-mode dongles have been released
 The basic USB dongles were naturally followed by MiFi devices
Source: IDATE

18. Review of LTE devices availability
Mobile handsets: early developments
 The early launch of the first LTE handset (Samsung Craft) on the US Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft and
Galaxy Indulge
market (in 2010) has come sooner than expected
 HTC was the first mobile device manufacturer to launch an LTE-powered
smartphone, the Thunderbolt, for the Verizon network
 The table below is a summary of announced LTE handsets. Most of them HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first LTE
Smartphone
are for the Verizon Wireless Band 13 (700 MHz) LTE network, and are
powered by a Qualcomm chipset.
Manufacturer Device name Specifications
HTC Thunderbolt 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 8 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / DLNA support
LG Revolution 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 5 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support
Motorola Droid Bionic 4G Dual core 1.2 GHz Cortex A9 processor / MDM 9600 (*) / Android /4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support
Craft Feature phone / Samsung CMC 2200 + Via Telecom / Proprietary OS / 165 MB internal memory + SD memory card / 3 MP camera
Galaxy Indulge 1 GHz Hummingbird Samsung processor / Android 2.2 / 3.5” Capacitative screen / micro SD slot / 3.2 MP camera + 1.3 Mp rear facing camera /
Samsung
Stealth 4G 1 GHz Hummingbird (Cortex A8) processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA
support
Source: IDATE

19. Review of LTE devices availability
Motorola Xoom tablet
Tablets: LTE as differentiating advantage?
 The tablet segment is bristling to establish itself on the mobile device market
quickly, especially as mobile device manufacturers do not want to let Apple
grab the whole of the pie
 Motorola was the first to announce an LTE-based version of its Xoom tablet
in January 2011
 Below is a summary of announced and expected LTE tablets on the market:
Manufacturer Device name Specifications Launch date Comments
Motorola Xoom Nvidia Tegra 2 Dual core Cortex A9 1 GHz processor / Q3 2011 First launched with 3G only, it will be hardware-upgraded to LTE in Q2 2011.
MDM 9600 (*) / Android 3.0 / 10.1" capacitive screen / 32 SD Card and Adobe Flash support not functional when launched but
GB + SD card / 5 MP camera + 2 MP rear camera / HDMI / expected to come with software upgrade.
725g
RIM Playbook 1 GHz Dual core Coretex A9 processor / QNX / 7" 2nd half of 2011 Will come first in a WiMAX edition for Sprint, and later in an LTE version,
capacitive screen / 16 - 32 - 64 GB / 5 MP camera + 3MP probably for Verizon. Will support Android application through a porting of the
rear-facing camera / HDMI / 400g Android Dalvik Java virtual machine.
Samsung Galaxy Tab 4G 1.2 GHz Coretex A8 Hummingbird processor / Android 2.2 / end of Q2 2011 (*) Samsung is constantly updating its specs depending on competitors. It is
7" capacitive screen / 2 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP rear- thus still unclear if the version finally released will have these characteristics
facing camera / DLNA / 400g or not. Android 2.2 is, among others, not the most appropriate OS for tablets.
ZTE - Light LTE 1.2 Ghz undefined processor / Android 3.0 / 10” Planned for Q1 2012 It is not clear if V11 LTE tablet and Light LTE tanlets are the same devices.
Capacitative screen / 4/8/16/32 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP The baseband will support FDD LTE / HSPA / WCDMA / Edge
rear facing camera -
Source: IDATE

20. Review of LTE devices availability
Machine to Machine communication modules
 As far as M2M communication modules and gateways are concerned, some
companies have already announced product availability.
 This is notably the case of Cinterio and, more recently, Sierra Wireless but the
case for such use has not yet been proved.
 M2M usages are today rather narrowband usages and sensitivity to prices is very
high, meaning that M2M LTE devices are not yet particularly relevant.
 However, remote video surveillance is seen already as a worthy usage for LTE Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway
M2M.
 Besides, as very few 3G M2M modules are today available, companies may well
chose to switch directly from GPRS / Edge module to 4G modules, so as to
maximise the communication module life cycle. Below is a summary of available
LTE M2M products:
Company Name of the product Kind of product Specifications
Sierra Wireless Airlink GX440 M2M gateway Band 13 (700 Mhz), 3G gateway upgradable to 4G to ease transition
Cinterion NA NA Reportedly working on it
Source: IDATE

21. Review of LTE devices availability
Other LTE devices ZyXEL LTE fixed router
 Fixed routers and / or gateways: as for Fixed (Ultra) Broadband
Wireless Access, some companies have been devising LTE home
gateways to serve grey areas in areas of low population density. This
market could be driven by countries such as Germany where MNOs
are obliged by their license to deploy broadband in such areas.
Kindle store on iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab
 eReaders are, broadly speaking, very specialised tablets with adapted
hardware and electronic ink display enabling long-lasting batteries
and increased comfort for reading. We do not see, however, the
business case for LTE support in these devices, with their very
competitive prices. We believe more eReader manufacturers will
either enter the tablet market with a device proposition or adapt their
content distribution platform to be available on smartphone
 Mobile gaming devices: some companies – Sony Ericsson is one
such – are now transforming their smartphones into gaming devices Sony Ericsson Xperia Play
rather than adding connectivity to existing gaming devices
Source: IDATE

22. LTE networks status & tariffing

23. LTE commercial services
 The LTE ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having
announced their commitment to LTE technology
Operator Country Date Frequency band Operator Country Date Frequency band
AT&T USA 09/2011 700 MHz Omnitel Lithuania 04/2011 2.6 GHz
A1 (Telekom Austria) Austria 11/2010 2.6 GHz Rogers Wireless Canada 07/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS)
Aero2 Poland 09/2010 1800 MHz SK Telecom South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHz
Bell Mobility Canada 09/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) Smart Communications Philippines 04/2011 2.6 GHz
CSL Hong-Kong 11/2010 1800 MHz & 2.6 GHz STC Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz
DoCoMo Japan 12/2010 2.1 GHz T-Mobile Germany 04/2011 800 MHz
Elisa Finland 12/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Denmark 12/2010 2.6 GHz
EMT Estonia 12/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Finland 05/2010 2.6 GHz
LG U+ South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHz TeliaSonera Norway 12/2009 2.6 GHz
LMT Latvia 05/2011 1800 MHz TeliaSonera Sweden 12/2009 2.6 GHz
M1 Singapore 06/2011 1.8 GHz and 2.6 GHz UCell Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHz
MetroPCS USA 09/2010 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) Verizon Wireless USA 11/2010 700 MHz
MTS Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHz Vodafone Germany 12/2010 800 MHz
Mobily Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz Zain Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz
Net4Mobility – Telenor & Tele2 Sweden 11/2010 2.6 GHz
O2 Germany 07/2011 800 MHz
Source: IDATE – October 2011

24. LTE deployment roadmap
Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
 In September 2011, 30 operators had
launched LTE service and at least 16 more are
expected during the second half of the year
Europe
 Major deployment for Verizon Wireless: 110 M
pop covered at end-2010 and 160 M at mid-
2011 (nationwide by 2013)
Canada and USA
 Limited coverage for European operators
except Germany Asia
Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
 LTE subscribers figures Sept. 2011
3GPP WCDMA
Operators
 Verizon Wireless: around 3
million
TD- SCDMA  DoCoMo: 390,000 Xi (LTE)
subscriptions, with a full-year
target of 1.3 million
3GPP2
CDMA
operators
Source: IDATE

25. Enablers of mobile traffic and tariffing trends
►Towards more differentiation (device type, speed…), more QoS management
Source: IDATE

26. TeliaSonera (Sweden) - 2009
LTE tariffing
Name and scope of rate plan Speed/ USB-modem Data Monthly tariff/
► EUR 62 per month including the usage of 30 GB data per month ‘Surfzone’ (for contract volume rate with
► Additional data volume costs € 8.7 per 2GB and € 12.9 for 5GB hotspot of 18 months) discount 1
speed
MetroPCS (USA) - 2010 Mellan 4G (‘Intermediate 4G’) 5-10 Included 10 GB SEK 299
Mbit/s SEK 249
► The $55 plan includes unlimited voice, texting and LTE data access <22 Mbit/s
► LTE-capable Samsung Craft for $299
Stor 4G (‘Grand 4G’) – Promotion 10-20 Included 20 GB SEK 349 for
A1 Telekom (Austria) - 2010 price Mbit/s 18 months2/
<22 Mbit/s SEK 299 for
► Plans LTE commercial service in Vienna in the 2.6 GHz band 18 months3
► 30 GB of data a month at speeds of up to 150 Mbps for €90 per month Total 4G – Promotion price 10-80 Included 30 GB SEK 349 for
Mbit/s six months4
Vodafone (Germany) - 2011 <22 Mbit/s SEK 249 for
6 months5
► 7.2 Mbps downstream for €39.99 per month with a cap of 10 GB
► For a downlink speed of 50 Mbps and 30 GB cap, the monthly cost is
€ 69.99
Plan Monthly fee Monthly data Overage fee
Allowance
4G mobile broadband plans (for 4G USB modems) USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
Mobile broadband connect and 3G mobile hotspots USD 20 2 GB USD 20 per 1 GB
(for smartphones and feature phones)
Mobile broadband plans (tablets, netbooks) USD 20 1 GB USD 20 per 1 GB
USD 35 3 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
Source: IDATE

27. The LTE wholesale model
Sharing
agreement?
Will sell LTE
capacity
Provides cells Sells LTE
sites and capacity?
helps building Sells Mobile
theterrstrial
LTE network
WiMAX
capacity  Many actors using new
Will sell LTE spectrum (satellite L-
capacity to
MVNOs and
distributors Sells LTE
Band, S-band, 2.3
capacity
GHz…)
 Consolidation likely in
the USA
Plans to build a wholesale LTE
network in the S-band (USA)
Builds a wholesale LTE network in
 Difficulties in Russia
the 1800 MHz band (Poland)
 Sharing and wholesale
model can be
combined
Builds a wholesale LTE network in
the 2.3 GHz band for rural areas
Build a common GSM and LTE
network (Sweden)
Source: IDATE

28. LTE subscribers forecasts
400,000
► By the end of 2015, we 350,000
forecast that overall there will
be more than 379 million LTE 300,000
subscribers (worldwide). 250,000
► We forecast 13.8 million LTE 200,000
subscribers at the end of 2011
150,000
with the USA representing the
bulk of this figure with 100,000
11.6 million subscribers.
50,000
► At the end of 2015, Asia- -
Pacific should represent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35.2% of the total, North Asia-Pacific 1,066 8,383 29,260 70,402 133,310
America 31.4% and Western Western Europe 1,103 4,292 14,946 44,607 85,246
Europe 22.5%. Central & Eastern Europe 68 1,547 3,600 11,592 21,879
North America 11,635 32,588 58,323 85,535 118,955
Latin America 247 1,027 3,402 11,128
Africa-Middle East 223 1,469 5,298 8,493
Total 13 872 47,280 108,624 220,836 379,012
Source: IDATE (June 2011)

29. LTE spectrum: valuation &
fragmentation risks

30. LTE spectrum
Fragmentation is here Countries Existing frequency bands New frequency bands
Main LTE frequency bands Europe 900 MHz
1800 MHz
800 MHz (790-862 MHz – Digital Dividend)
2.6 GHz
► Regional harmonisation likely to be the first step 2.1 GHz
USA 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz)
 Americas: DD (700 MHz), AWS, 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS)
1900 MHz (PCS)
1.4-1.6 GHz (LightSquared)
S-band (Dish)?
 Europe: DD (800 MHz), 1800 MHz, 2.6 GHz South America
2.6 GHz
1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 700 MHz (698-806 MHz)
1800 MHz 2.6 GHz
 Asia Pac: 2.3 GHz, 2.6 GHz 1900 MHz (PCS)
China 2.3 GHz
► In the USA, LightSquared will use specific bands (1.4-1.6 2.6 GHz
Japan 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned)
GHz…) 1.7/1.9 GHz
2.1 GHz
1.5 GHz
► Roaming is not a priority today South Korea 1800 MHz
2100 MHz
800 MHz
Rest of Asia-Pacific 1800 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned)
2.3 GHz
2.6 GHz
Legend: Currently used by LTE Likely use by LTE Other mobile frequency bands
Spectrum price
Premium spectrum (€ cents per MHz per pop)
600
518.2
500
► EUR 70 cents per MHz per pop in Germany for
400
the DD: very close to the level reached in the
USA. In Sweden it sold for EUR 31 cents, in
300 Spain for EUR 54 cents and in Italy for 85 cents.
200 ► 2.6 GHz spectrum much cheaper: in the EUR
0.1-10 cents range
100 84.2
70.3 71.4
29.9 20.3
49.6 50.6
10.7
54.5
31.1 ► France 2.6 GHz: € 11 cents
5.1
0
Australia 850 Canada France France Free France 2.1 France 2.1 Germany Germany Germany Spain 800 Sweden 800 USA 700 ► Italy 2.6 GHz: € 6 cents
MHz 2004 AWS 2008 UMTS core 2009 GHz Orange GHz SFR 800 MHz T- UMTS core 2.1 GHz MHz 2011 MHz 2011 MHz 2008
band 2001 2010 2010 Mobile 2010 band 2010
Source: IDATE

31. TD-LTE: a complement to LTE FDD
TD-LTE: already in commercial service
Migration paths to TD-LTE
► The growing interest for TD-LTE can be explained by Tests Initial deployments Mass market
the following factors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 Unlike 3G, the TDD and FDD versions of LTE as TD-LTE
TD-LTE selected as natural
evolution from TD-SCDMA.
adoption
Will implement a TD-LTE network in 2012/2013
Went bankruptcy in 2009.
defined by the standardisation body 3GPP are 90%
Might choose TD-LTE
Announced in May 2010 choice of TD-LTE
Early tests
similar.
First commercial
 Availability of (unused) TDD spectrum TD-LTE launch
 Ecosystem: there is strong support from leading TD-SCDMA
Super-PHS
mobile operators + some WiMAX actors (Yota & 2.3 GHz spectrum
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
Clearwire?)
Mobile-WiMAX Mobile-WiMAX
Source: IDATE
► TDD mode in China and in India
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
 There is strong potential for TD-LTE in China as it is seen as
the natural evolution of the home-grown 3G TD-SCDMA Likely frequency bands for TD-LTE
standard;
Operators 3G Technology Frequency band Date
 China Mobile, the first mobile operator in the World by the
number of subscribers, is currently rolling out its 3G network P1 (Malaysia) Mobile WiMAX 2.3 GHz 2012
using the TD-SCDMA technology. The operator claims that China Mobile TD-SCDMA 2.3 GHz 2011-2013
60% of its CAPEX will be reusable for its planned TD-LTE India WCDMA and CDMA 2000 2.3 GHz 2011-2012
network. A strong ecosystem is appearing as there is also Europe WCDMA and TD-CDMA (unused) 2 GHz >2013?
support from BWA actors in India and, in addition, some Europe none 2.6 GHz 2011-2013
Mobile WiMAX actors could shift to TD-LTE in the coming Yota (Russia) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2011
years Clearwire (USA) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012-2013
► First TD-LTE launch in September 2011 Willcom (Japan) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012?

32. LTE strategies
Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs
Need for Need for Need for
Competition additional Competition additional Competition additional
capacity capacity capacity
Provide Provide Provide
higher data
Increase
ARPU rates
Increase
ARPU
higher data
rates
Increase
ARPU
higher data
rates IDATE has identified five
Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs key drivers as reasons for
MNOs to migrate to LTE:
Competition
Need for
additional
capacity
Competition
Need for
additional
capacity
Competition
Need for
additional
capacity
►Reduce costs
►Need for additional
capacity
►Increase ARPU
Increase
Provide
higher data
rates
Increase
Provide
higher data
rates
Increase
Provide
higher data
rates
►Provide higher data
ARPU ARPU ARPU
rates
Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs
►Competitive pressure
Need for
Need for Need for
additional
additional additional
capacity
capacity capacity
Competition Competition Competition
Provide
Provide Provide
Increase higher data Increase Increase
higher data higher data
ARPU rates ARPU ARPU
rates rates
32
Source: IDATE

33. Conclusions

34. Conclusions
 Mobile sector still dynamic in the USA, struggling in Europe
 Devices:
 Smarphones representing a growing part of devices shipments
 LTE devices coming slowly to the market
 The US market is currently the priority for LTE device manufacturers
 LTE networks
 RAN available, LTE commercial networks in 2010
 IMS core networks being built, key to VoLTE offering
 LTE delivers the expected data rates and latency
 LTE-Advanced: probably earlier than expected
 LTE is seen as a solution to congestion and saturation network issues in dense areas
 LTE spectrum
 Fragmentation risk
 Regional harmonization likely
 MNOs strategies
 New technology path
 More capacity/ higher data rates
 Network sharing developing and wholesale operators appearing

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 Insights - Monthly views on key issues
 Market reports - in-depth analysis
 Analyst Access - consulting hours, analyst
briefs, presentations

36. THANK YOU!
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