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Connected Life Market Watch:
          Transitions in U.S. Consumer Video
          Entertainment


          Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group
          July 2010

          Kate Griffin


          Kate Griffin
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group
Connected Life Market Watch Program
           Transitions in Consumer Video

             Scope                                                    Approach
             •  United States                                         Market Watch Program
                                                                      •  Cisco IBSG’s recurring primary research
             •  United Kingdom                                           program
             •  Brazil                                                •  Monitors changing consumer behavior to
                                                                         identify key market transitions
             •  China
                                                                      Methodology
             •  Germany
                                                                      •  Broadband consumers
                                                                      •  20-minute online survey
                                                                      •  5,500 total respondents
                                                                      •  December 2009 – January 2010
                                                                      Segmentation
                                                                        Used proprietary scoring methodologies to
                                                                         identify consumer “technology” segments

          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.     Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group   2
Transitions in U.S. Consumer Video
           Entertainment
           Video Entertainment Today
           •  Traditional cable/satellite TV market is saturated
           •  Consumers have invested significantly in home entertainment equipment
           •  Traditional premium content still drives the market
           •  The Internet has become a key source for entertainment
           Key Transitions: Consumers Are Taking Control
           •  Consumer TV viewing behavior is changing (e.g., time shifting, device shifting)
           •  Consumers are exploring Internet video as a new source of video entertainment
           Impact of Transition
           •  Consumers are interested in alternative services
           •  New usage patterns can impact traditional TV revenue streams
           •  Interest differs by customer segment
           Going Forward
           •  Key trends to watch
           •  Service provider opportunities

          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group   3
Video Entertainment Today
Situation




                            4
Mature, Mostly Saturated Pay-TV Market
   U.S. Pay-TV Households                                               Monthly Pay-TV ARPU                      U.S. Pay-TV Market Share
                 as Percentage of Total                                                      US $

                                                                                                                   2000
                                                                                                                                              Satellite
                                                                                                                                  Cable         17%
                                                                                                                                   83%




                                                                                                                                                     IPTV
                                                                                                                                                      6%

                                                                                                                   2009          Satellite
                                                                                                                                   63%


                                                                                                                                             Cable
                                                                                                                                             63%




At 90% of households,                                                 With average monthly spending of            Competition is increasing from
U.S. pay-TV market is saturated.                                      $62, consumer market for advanced           new players (IPTV, Apple TV, Hulu).
                                                                      pay-TV services may be tapped out.



          Source: Screen Digest, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.     Cisco Confidential             Internet Business Solutions Group                  5
Traditional Content Still Drives Industry
                             Most Important Attribute to Video Experience                                                         Interest in Viewing
                                           Ranked #1 by Consumers, for All Viewing Devices                                       Internet Video on TV
% of Respondents Ranking Factor #1




                                                                                                                                       by Type of Content




                                                                                                                  Content




                                     Content is most important part of the                                                  Even with Internet-sourced
                                     experience, even as consumers explore                                                  video, consumers are most
                                     new devices and video sources.                                                         interested in traditional,
                                                                                                                            professional content.

                                           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                         Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
                                 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential     Internet Business Solutions Group     6
Consumers Are Investing Heavily in
           Home Video Experience
Average Broadband Household:                                                       U.S. Broadband Consumers
                                                                                   Subscribe to cable/satellite/telco TV                   89%
•  Has 2.6 TVs, including 1 HDTV
                                                                                   Subscribe to premium movies                             34%
•  Spends more than $60 per month
                                                                                   Subscribe to Netflix                                    30%
   for pay-TV service
                                                                                   Have HDTV                                               58%
•  Spends another $20 on other                                                     Have DVR                                                42%
   forms of video watched at home
                                                                                   Have gaming console with DVD
                                                                                                                                           37%
                                                                                   functionality




      Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential               Internet Business Solutions Group         7
Consumers Spend More Time on
           Internet than Watching TV

  Consumers spend                                                                      Internet and TV Viewing by Age
       more time in front
       of the computer                                                Age
       screen than the TV
       screen

  Entertainment-
       focused Internet
       time does not
       exceed TV time,
       but it is significant,
       especially among
       those under 30                                                                                   Hours per week

                                                                            Internet Video Time Spent                 Other Internet Time Spent

                                                                            Other Internet
                                                                                                                      Time Spent Watching TV
                                                                            Entertainment Time Spent




          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                     Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.     Cisco Confidential               Internet Business Solutions Group
#1 Reason Consumers Use the Internet
          Is Entertainment
                            Consumer Internet:                                                         More time is spent on Internet
                          Time Spent by Category                                                        entertainment than on other
                                                                                                        Internet categories among all
                                                                                                        age groups
                                              Other
                                              10%                                                      Broadband consumers spend
                                                                      Work or
                     Shopping                                         School                            more than 25 hours per week
                        8%                                             18%
                                                                                                        on the Internet—more than 7
                                                                                                        of them on entertainment
                  News and
                 Information                                           Communicate                     Internet as an entertainment
                     15%                                                  21%
                                                                                                        vehicle is not limited to early
                                             Entertainment
                                                                                                        technology adopters
                                                 29%
                                                                                                          Late market adopters spend
                                                                                                          more of their Internet time on
                                                                                                          entertainment than earlier
                                                                                                          technology adopters do


          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                       Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.             Cisco Confidential           Internet Business Solutions Group    9
Key Transitions
Consumers Are Taking
Control of Video Experience




                              10
Consumers Are Taking Control of
         Video Entertainment Experience
           2006 Time Magazine                                                                    DVRs taught users they
            Person of the Year                                                                    could take control of video
                                                                                                  experience
                                                                                                 This increased user control is
                                                                                                  driving four interrelated trends:
                                                                                                   1.  Time shifting
                                                                      Consumers                    2.  Device shifting
                                                                         got the                   3.  Increased video sourcing
                                                                        message                        options (e.g., Internet)
                                                                                                   4.  Increased spending control
                                                                                                 Together, these are part of
                                                                                                  larger, viewer-controlled
                                                                                                  viewing trend


          Source: Time Magazine, 2006; Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.       Cisco Confidential           Internet Business Solutions Group   11
Traditional TV Experience Is Changing
          Consumers Are No Longer Making Appointments
          with Their TVs          Real-Time vs.. Controlled Viewing
                                                                                                  (Percentage of Time Spent)
           Consumers are
            changing their usage
            patterns                                                                       Average                               DVR Owners
           They are no longer
            making appointments                                                  Viewer-
            with their TV                                                       Controlled
                                                                                 Viewing
                                                                                                                               Viewer-
                                                                                                                              Controlled
                                                                                                                               Viewing
           They want to watch                                                     38%
                                                                                                                                 58%           Real-Time
            their video                                                                        Real-Time
                                                                                                Viewing
                                                                                                                                                Viewing
                                                                                                                                                  42%
            entertainment at the                                                                  62%

            time they choose


                                                                                Base: U.S. Broadband                          Base: U.S. Broadband
                                                                                     Consumers                                Consumers with DVRs
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected
          Life Market Watch, 2010
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The TV-Content “Walled Garden”
                 Is Cracking
                 Consumers Are Supplementing TV with Other Video
                       Weekly Time Spent on                                                                               Weekly Time Spent on Video
                        Video Entertainment                                                                                  Entertainment by Age


                                                                         Portable devices
                                                                         Computer-based
                                                                         DVDs
                                                                         VoD




                                                                                                   Hours per Week
Hours per Week




                                                                         DVR




                                                                         Real-time TV


                                                                                                                    Age




                   Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                                       Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
       Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                  Cisco Confidential                   Internet Business Solutions Group     13
Consumers Are Aware of Their Many
           Choices in Video Entertainment

          In an average month:
            33% of broadband consumers watch
             TV programs on the Internet
            Broadband consumers watch more
             than 4 hours of video on the Internet
            11% connect their computer to the
             TV
            Another 11% watch video on their
             mobile phone
            23% of broadband consumers use
             their gaming consoles to watch DVDs
            9% rent a movie online from their
             gaming console
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group   14
Consumers Are Exploring Alternative
           Video Entertainment
          Percentage of Broadband Users that Use Alternative Video Sources
                                                                                 United Kingdom                                  Germany


                                                                           68%                                    70%
                  United States                                                            61%
                                                                                                                                    45%
                                                                                                  38%
                                                                                                                                            26%
 75%


                                52%
                                                              40%                        China                                    Brazil

                                                                          99%
                                                                                         90%      88%              95%
                                                                                                                                            83%
                                                                                                                                    67%




          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected                                In a given month, more U.S. broadband consumers watch TV programs on
          Life Market Watch, 2010                                               the Internet than watch on-demand videos on TV (33% vs.. 23%)
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.         Cisco Confidential          Internet Business Solutions Group     15
Today, TV Is Consumers’ Preferred
           Device for Video Entertainment
                        Device Used To Watch
                         Video Entertainment                                           Consumers Like Their
                            as a Portion of Total Spend
                                                                                       Video Entertainment on TV
                             Computer                 Portable
                                5.5%                  Devices 1.5%

                                                                                             58% of U.S. broadband
                                                                                              consumers have a high-
                                                                                              definition television at home
                                                                                             The #1 reason consumers
                                                                                              don’t watch more Internet
                                                                                              video today is because they’d
                                                 Television
                                                    93%                                       rather watch video
                                                                                              entertainment on a TV screen
                                                                                              than on a computer screen

                      Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
                                                                                       But that is changing…
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
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Young Consumers Watch Less TV
           Young Viewers Watch Nearly Twice as Much Non-TV Video as
           Average Broadband User
                        Device Used To Watch
                         Video Entertainment                                                 Average U.S. broadband
                           as Portion of Total Spending
                                                Portable Devices 4%
                                                                                              consumer spends 1.3 hours
                                                                                              per week watching video on a
                                                                                              computer
                         Computer
                           14%                                                               Average 18- to 24-year-old
                                                                                              broadband consumer spends
                                                                                              nearly twice that time, watching
                                                                                              2.5 hours of video on a
                                                 Television                                   computer per week
                                                    82%
                                                                                             On average, U.S. broadband
                                                                                              consumers watch 21 minutes
                                                                                              of video per week on portable
                      Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers                                          devices, while 18- to 24-year-
                            Between 18–24 Years
                                                                                              olds watch 38 minutes
           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch 2010
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Consumers Often Choose Alternative
           Devices, Even When TV Is Available
          Consumers Watch Video on Their Computers
          To Time-Shift and Multi-task
            75% of respondents watch                                                      Reasons for Watching Computer Video
             video on computers,                                                                      When At Home
             averaging about 1 hour, 45
             minutes each week
                        63% of the time at home
                        93% of 18- to 24-year-olds watch
                        video on a computer, averaging 2
                        hours, 45 minutes
            40% of respondents watch
             video using portable devices,
             averaging about 54 minutes
             each week
                        39% of this time they are at home


                                                                                                             Base: Watch Video on the Computer at Home
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential            Internet Business Solutions Group           18
Consumers of All Ages Watch All
             Types of Internet Video Content
           Internet Video Is No Longer Defined Only by Young
           People Watching YouTube

       Watching Internet Video (by Age)                                                             Watching Internet Video (by Content)


                       93%
                                                                                                        61%
                                             80%                   81%
                                                                                                                52%            51%
                                                                         67%
                                                                                                                                              38%
                                                                                   55%

                                                                                                                                                    25%




    Time                2.6                   1.7                  1.1   47        43
per week              hours                hours                 hours   min       min

            Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                         Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
  Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.          Cisco Confidential             Internet Business Solutions Group       19
Time Spent Watching Internet Video
                           Is Growing
                            More Than Half of Broadband Consumers Watch TV
                            on the Internet
                                                                                                               In the 18 months ending
                                     Increase in TV Viewership on the
                                      Internet (July 2008 to Dec. 2009)                                         December 2009, there was
                                                                                                                about a 10% increase in the
Percentage of Consumers




                                                                                                                number of people who
                                                                                                                watch TV on the Internet
                                                                                                               comScore reports even more
                                                                                                                aggressive growth, with a
                                                                                                                10% increase in total online
                                                                                                                video viewers in the last 6
                                                                                                                months of 2009
                                                                                                               Time spent viewing online
                                                                                                                video has grown 17% since
                                                                                                                July 2008



                             Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; comScore, 2010                         Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
                  Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential     Internet Business Solutions Group     20
Internet Video Has Different Value
           Proposition from Traditional TV

    Reasons for Watching/Downloading Online Video
                                                                                             Choice, control
                                                                                             and convenience
                                                                                             are driving Internet
                                                                                             TV use
                                                                                               “Snacking” and new
                                                                                                non-TV content are
                                                                                                key drivers




          Source: Cisco IBSG U.S. Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                    Base: U.S. Internet Video Viewers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group        21
Internet Video Use Is Driven by Friends
           and In-Home Entertainment

    Reasons for Watching/Downloading Online Video

                                                                                                      In the last year, two
                                                                                                         factors have gained
                                                                                                         importance as drivers
                                                                                                         of Internet video
                                                                                                         usage:
                                                                                                             Shared experience
                                                                                                             In-home
                                                                                                             entertainment




                                                 July 2008            December 2009


          Source: Cisco IBSG U.S. Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                            Base: U.S. Internet Video Viewers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.           Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group        22
Nearly 30% of Consumer Video Spending
       Is for Supplemental Video Options

          U.S. Broadband Consumers’ Monthly                                                         Consumers supplement
                 Video Spending                                                                     their basic TV experience
                                                                       •  Premium movie             with as many as 7 other
                                                                          channels                  sources of video
                                                                       •  Mail-based rentals
                                                                       •  VoD/PPV                   Consumers can exert more
Secondary                                                              •  Rentals                   immediate control over these
    Video                                   $14.40
                                           $22.69                      •  DVD purchases             a la carte options
                                                                       •  Internet downloads
                                                                          & subscriptions
                                                                                                      They have flexibility and can
                                                                       •  Kiosks
                                                                                                      select the secondary video
     Primary
       Video
                                              $30.00                                                  option that best suits a given
                                                                                                      situation
                                           $56.08                        Average monthly
                                                                         subscription for             In many cases, they can adjust
                                                                         cable, satellite, or         their spending incrementally
                                                                         Pay TV
                                                                                                      without entirely canceling or
                                                                                                      abandoning the service


            Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                    Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.         Cisco Confidential          Internet Business Solutions Group     23
Secondary Video Market Is Fragmented,
                    with Opportunity for New Entrants

     Penetration and Spending in Secondary Video Market                                                            Fragmentation and shift
                                                                                                                       in secondary market
                                                                                                                       make it easier to displace
                                                                                                                       than primary

                                                                                                                   Consumers use multiple




                                                                                                     Spending
Penetration




                                                                                                                       methods; few attached
                                                                                                                       to any one

                                                                                                                   While representing the
                                                                                                                       highest adoption, DVD
                                                                                                                       purchase and retail rental
                                                                                                                       are declining

                                                                                                                   High DVD purchase
                                                                                                                       suggests desire to “own”
                                                                                                                       media, which presents
                                                                                                                       opportunity in digital,
                                                                                                                       online world


                     Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2008, 2010                                            Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
          Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential              Internet Business Solutions Group     24
Spending in Secondary Video Is Shifting
          from Traditional Media to Internet
                                                                                                 Total secondary video
                        Shifting Secondary Video Spending
                                               July 2008 to December 2009                         market declined 10%
                                                                                                  in 18 months
                                                                                                 Decline led by DVD
                                                                                                  purchase and rental
                                                                                                  declines; at same time,
                                                                                                  Internet movie down-
                                                                                                  loads increased by nearly
                                                                                                  30%
                                                                                                 In 2010, 22% of
                                                                                                  respondents expect to
                                                                                                  spend less on DVDs;
                                                                                                  these reductions may not
                                                                                                  be fully reallocated to
                                       Spending on DVDs                                           other video options, but
                                       Spending on DVD Rental (retail)
                                       Spending on Internet Downloads                             instead to savings and
                                       Total Secondary Market Spending                            other nonvideo expenses

           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.      Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group   25
Younger Consumers Allocate More
            Spending to Secondary Video Options
                                      Monthly Video Spending
                                                                         by Age
                                                                                                                      Greater reliance on
                                                                                                                       secondary video among
                                                                                      Primary           Secondary
                                                                                                                       younger consumers
                                                                                                                       could support rapid
                                                                                                                       shifts in spending
                                                                                                                      On average, consumers
                                                                                                                       between 25 and 29
                                                                                                                       spend more than $5 per
                                                                                                                       month on Internet video




% Spent on
Secondary                38%                          39%                    32%      24%                12%

             Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                              Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
   Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.             Cisco Confidential               Internet Business Solutions Group     26
Impact of Transitions in
Consumer Video




                           27
Consumers Are Ready for New TV
           Services, Such as Web Video to TV
                                                                                                         Service Concept: Web Video to TV
     Consumer Interest in a Service that
     Simply and Easily Enables Internet                                                                    Web video to TV makes it simple and easy
                Video on TV                                                                                 to watch all the different types of video
                                                                                                            available on the Internet today on your TV
                                                                                                            instead of on your computer

                                                                                                           This includes:
                                                              Strong
                                                              Interest               43%                      Full-length movies and TV shows from sites like
                                                                 4%                                           Hulu, Amazon Unbox, and ABC.com

                                                                                                              Professional short videos from sites like
                                                                                                              CNN.com, Moviefone.com
                                                                      Significant
                                                                        Interest                              User-created short videos from sites like
                                                                          14%                                 Facebook and YouTube

                                                                                                           For web video to TV, use your TV's remote
                                                                                                            control to find and select a video from an
                                                                                                            Internet site and watch it directly on TV

 Question:                                                                                                 Web video to TV is enabled through a
 How interested would you be in this offering, if it                                                        device attached to your TV and is separate
 were priced at a level you consider reasonable?                                                            from your TV service, so it does not provide
                                                                                                            access to your regular TV channels
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                              Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
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Web Video to TV Service Would
           Address Many Consumer Pain Points

            Important Drivers of Interest in Web Video to TV                                     Moving Internet
                                                                                                     video to the TV is
                                                                                                     important, but not
                                                                                                     the only driver
                                                                                                 Consumers want
                                                                                                     control of when
                                                                                                     they choose to
                                                                                                     watch their video
                                                                                                     entertainment
                                                                                                 Web video to TV
                                                                                                     addresses many
                                                                                                     other consumer
                                                                                                     pain points, from
                                                                                                     access, to content,
                               Respondents Rank 6+ on 10-point scale                                 to total spending
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                Base: Any Interest in Web Video to TV
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Concept Attracts Average Consumers
           Who Want To Control TV Experience
                                                          Profile Comparison
         Web Video To TV Strong Interest versus Average U.S. BB Consumer
                                                                                                                       Profile of Initial
                                                                                                                       Target Segment:
                    Profile of Initial
                    Target Segment:                                                                                        Average TV usage
                                                                                                                            and spending
                         Average TV usage and
                          spending                                                                                         Younger and more
                                                                                                                            likely to have
                         Younger and more likely to                                                                        children living at
                          have children living at home                                                                      home
                         Have strong                                                                                      Have strong
                          existing alternative                                                                              existing alternative
                          TV behavior                                                                                       TV behavior
                         More likely to want                                                                              More likely to want
                          to control their TV viewing                                     Average respondent
                                                                                                                            to control their TV
                                                                                          Strong interest in
                                                                                          web video to TV                   viewing

          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.      Cisco Confidential                    Internet Business Solutions Group   30
Consumers Under 30 Are Less Tied to
           Traditional TV
                                                                                                   18-24               25-29                30+
                                                    Watch video on computer                       2.8 hours          2.2 hours            1.3 hours
  Higher                                            (hours per week)
 Usage of                                           Watch TV via Internet                           42%                  28%                13%
                                                    (weekly or more)
Alternative                                         Connect computer to TV
                                                    (at any time)
                                                                                                    31%                  39%                16%
                                                    Purchase movies via gaming console              19%                  19%                11%
                                                    (at any time)
                                                    Spend on online video
                                                                                                   $3.00                $5.20              $1.20
                                                    (average per month)

                                                                                                   18-24               25-29                30+
                                                    Watch TV on TV
   Lower                                            (hours per week)
                                                                                                  13 hours            16 hours            23 hours
 Usage of                                           Real-time viewing
 Traditional                                                                                        55%                  50%                65%
                                                    (as percent of total video entertainment)

                                                    Spending on cable/satellite TV service         $57.20              $63.20              $71.01
                                                    (average among users)
                                                    Current cable/satellite subscribers
                                                    likely to cancel cable/satellite                8%                    7%                5%
                                                    (if Internet video available on TV)
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.          Cisco Confidential       Internet Business Solutions Group               31
Some Groups Are Abandoning
           Traditional Pay TV

             Internet Video Dominant
               10% of this group already use
                Internet video for most of their
                video viewing
               20% of this group do not
                subscribe to pay TV
               Another 10% would cancel
                pay TV if Internet video were                                              A smaller group (3%) of
                accessible easily on TV                                                    consumers have no TV
               This group is younger and more                                             service at all
                likely to live with roommates or                                           They use only their computer
                parents and, in general, spend                                             and/or portable devices to
                more time on the Internet                                                  meet their video
                                                                                           entertainment needs
         Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential        Internet Business Solutions Group   32
However, Traditional TV Has Strong
           Appeal for Key Market Segments

         Older consumers
          spend more time and
          money on TV




         Families are heavy
          time shifters and strong
          Internet video watchers,
          but they are not likely to
          cut the cable cord


           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
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For Some Consumers, Internet Video Is
           Cannibalizing Traditional Linear TV
   Change in Time Spent Watching TV                                                                For 70% of consumers, Internet
   After Beginning To Watch Internet TV                                                            TV viewing has not impacted
                                                                                                   time spent watching TV
                                                                                                     18% watch less on TV since they
                                       Less
                                                                                                     began watching Internet TV
                                       18%
                                                                                                     12% watch more TV on television
                        More
                                                                                                     now, supporting theory that
                        12%                                                                          Internet can find new user bases
                                                                 The Same
                                                                   70%                               and/or help keep users loyal
                                                                                                   There is more cannibalization
                                                                                                   effect in younger consumers
                                                                                                     31% of Internet TV viewers aged
Question:
Since you began watching TV programs on the                                                          18-24 say they watch less TV on
Internet, do you spend more, less, or the same                                                       television since they began
time watching TV programs on a television?                                                           watching Internet TV
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                        Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.         Cisco Confidential              Internet Business Solutions Group          34
As Alternatives Enter the Market, Internet
           Video Could Threaten SP Core Businesses
         Question:                                                             Potential To Cancel Pay TV Service
                                                                             (Percentage of subscribers responding they would cancel)
         Imagine that you were
         able to access web video
         to TV for free, and that
         you could easily watch all
         Internet video content on
         your TV. Web video to TV
         includes on-demand
                                                                      Potential to Cancel Premium Movie Subscription
         access to prime-time TV                                                 (Percentage of subscribers responding they would cancel)
         shows, but does not
         include your regular TV
         service or your TV lineup
         as it airs.
         Would you make any
         changes to your current
         TV service package?                                           While the greatest threat is in secondary video,
                                                                          even the core primary video market could
                                                                                          be impacted
           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential                Internet Business Solutions Group   35
Evaluating the Long-Term Threat
            Will today’s 20-somethings stay less attached to traditional pay TV as they age?

        Forecasting Future TV Behavior                                                   What’s Likely To Change
                                                                                         •  More disposable income
                                                                                         •  Investment in home technology (e.g., HDTV)
                                                                                         •  Time spent at home
                                                                                         •  Degree of “busy-ness”
                                                                                         •  Extreme behavior is averaged out. Household
Young Adults                                     Aging (30+)                                decisions are compromises based on interest and
(18 – 30)                                        •  Married, w/                             needs of multiple people.
•  Unmarried                                        children
•  No children                                   •  Financially
                                                    stable                               What’s Likely To Stay the Same
•  Living alone                                                                          •  General level of technology comfort
•  Early in financial                            •  Family needs
                                                 •  Less time to                         •  Awareness of options
   independence                                                                          •  Desire for control, choice, and convenience
                                                    follow trends

                                                                                         Market Evolution
                                                                                         •  As these consumers age, will they be presented
                                                                                            with the same options available in today’s market?
                                                                                         •  Or, will there be new options that make it easier to
                                                                                            source video from alternative sources and watch it
                                                                                            at home on TV?
             Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
   Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential                Internet Business Solutions Group   36
Going Forward:
Key Trends to Watch




                      37
Trends To Watch:                                                                                                                    Migration
1 Moving Internet Video to the TV                                                                                                       to TV



The latest TVs & consumer                                                     In-Stat predicted that all digital TVs would have at
                                                                               least 1 HDMI input by end of 2009
electronics products make it
                                                                              21% of U.S. broadband consumers have already
easier to watch Internet                                                       connected their computer to the TV
video on TV
                                                                              4% of broadband consumers have an Internet
                                                                               video device (Roku, Apple TV)
                                                                              Netflix reports that half of its subscribers with
                                                                               broadband are getting movies on TV


As Internet video moves to                                                    Today, 93% of video entertainment is viewed
                                                                               on a TV; it is the preferred viewing device
the TV, usage patterns will
                                                                              The #1 reason consumers don’t watch more
shift significantly                                                            Internet video today is because they’d rather
                                                                               not watch their entertainment on a computer
                                                                              As CE offers make it easier to access Internet-
                                                                               sourced video on this preferred device, usage
                                                                               patterns could shift rapidly
         Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; In-Stat, 2008; company reports
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential          Internet Business Solutions Group          38
Trends To Watch: Quality Can                                                                                                                 Impact of
2 Impact Internet Video Use                                                                                                                     Quality

                     Consumer Perception of Quality of                                               Quality Will Play Role in
                  Internet-Based TV Viewing Experience
                                                                                                     Evolution of Alternative TV
                                                              Very Poor 2%
                                                     Poor                                            Only 7% see Internet-based TV
                                                                      Very
                                                      5%
                                                                      Good
                                                                                                     video as being poor today
                                                                      15%
                                                                                                     This positive perception may be
                                        Adequate                                                     related to low expectations, because
                                          39%
                                                                       Good                          1 out of 4 Internet TV viewers say
                                                                       39%                           that quality limits them from
                                                                                                     watching more Internet video

                                                                                                     With improved quality, 29% of
               Consumers Limiting Internet Video Viewing                                             Internet TV viewers and 37% of
                       Due to Video Quality                                                          those watching Internet TV weekly
                                                                                                     would spend more time watching
                                                                                                     TV on the Internet

                                                                                                     After competitors begin to match
                                                                                                     each other in content breadth and
                                                                                                     control capability, quality will rise in
                                                                                                     importance as a competitive
                                                                                                     differentiator
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                                            Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.           Cisco Confidential           Internet Business Solutions Group          39
Impact: Quality Improvements and TV
           Accessibility Could Boost Internet Video

                  Reasons Consumers Don’t Watch More                                              Major protections for
                          Video on the Internet                                                      traditional pay TV
                                                                                                     include screen
                                                                                                     preference, business
                                                                                                     models that enforce
                                                                                                     time delays, and video
                                                                                                     quality
                                                                                                  The challenge:
                                                                                                     protections are not fully
                                                                                                     in the control of service
                                                                                                     providers
                                                                                                  Changes in content
                                                                                                     distribution policy and
                                                                                                     technology can
                                                                                                     drastically impact
                                                                                                     consumers’ behavior
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                         Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group       40
Trends To Watch: TV Screen                                                                                                                      TV Internet
3 Becomes New Internet Screen                                                                                                                      Access

                                                                                                In January 2009, Yahoo! first announced
                                                                                                distribution partners for its TV widgets.
As widgets proliferate,                                                                         Today, more than two dozen widgets are
consumers may come                                                      available on TVs from Vizio, Samsung, LG, and Sony
to recognize TV screen
                                                                                                    Three weeks after Verizon FiOS launched
as another access point                                                                             updated widgets, they reported that “millions”
to the Internet                                                                                     of Tweets and Facebook gallery photos had
                                                                                                    been viewed by FiOS TV subscribers on
                                                                                                    their TVs

                                                                         Today, only 1 out of 3 consumers express interest in accessing
2010 will be a learning                                                   Internet content from the TV
year for consumers                                                       In aided discussions with specific use cases, interest grows


                                                                         Cisco IBSG expects competitive differentiation in GUI and general
Market impact may not                                                     ease of use versus exclusive widgets or applications
be in competitive                                                        The significance of TV widgets may not be in the competitive edge
differentiation, but in                                                   they deliver, but in their role in fundamentally changing the way
consumer perception                                                       consumers view their TV screen—opening the door for Consumer
                                                                          TelePresence and other services
           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; Company Reports
 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.           Cisco Confidential             Internet Business Solutions Group           41
Trends To Watch:                                                                                                                     TV Social
4 Introduce Social Behavior into TV                                                                                                    Behavior


“TV is fundamentally a social experience, and the only reason people haven’t
engaged socially with their TV screens to date is that they haven’t had a
convenient way to do so.”                               —Forrester, August 2009

               4 Potential Social TV Developments                                                 TV Watching Behavior
                                                                                                      Is Complex
          Applications that….                                                                People watch TV alone about half
          1     Enhance a live group experience                                               the time
                            Create a “virtual” group experience,                             People multitask while watching TV
          2                                                                                   about 40% of the time
                            watching TV with people in other
                            locations
                                                                                               The Value of Social TV Is
          3                 Foster interaction with the TV
                            programming itself (decide plot lines,                            Unclear to Today’s Consumer
                            vote on reality winners)                                         Only 14% say the desire to watch with
                                                                                              others prevents them from watching
           4                Create a peer recommendation                                      more Internet TV
                            engine and commentary on viewing
                                                                                             Only 23% of broadband consumers
                                                                                              express interest in friend-to-friend
                                                                                              social TV service
         Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2007, 2010; Forrester, 2009
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential           Internet Business Solutions Group          42
Going Forward:
Service Provider Opportunities




                                 43
SPs Are Strongly Positioned To Deliver
           Internet Video to Consumers
                                                                                             66% of consumers choose an SP
                           Preferred Provider for                                            to deliver web video to TV service
                               Web Video to TV
                                                  United States
                                                                                             SPs can address consumers’
                                                                                             concerns, including up-front cost
                                                                                             and quality
       Movie studio—2%
Broadcast company—4%
                                                                                             To optimize any offer that requires
  Online aggregator—3%                                                                       consumers to buy a separate device,
                                                                                             SPs should work with retailers
                                                                                               55% would buy the enabling device
  Video rental—7%
  Retail store—4%
                                                                                               at a consumer electronics or Internet
                                                                                               retailer
TV manufacturer—2%
 Gaming service—1%
                                                                                             This preferred position reflects the
                                                                                             lack of activity in the market by any
                                                                                             player, and could change quickly if
                                                                                             any consumer electronics vendor,
                                                                                             retailer, or aggregator launches
                                                                                             aggressively
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                      Base: Interested in Web Video to TV, U.S.
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential             Internet Business Solutions Group      44
Service Providers Have Multiple Ways
           To Monetize Web-Video-to-TV Services
                          Price Sensitivity: Web Video-to-TV
                                                                                             Consumers are willing to
                                Monthly Basic Service                                          pay directly for web
                               (Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter)                        video to TV
                                                                                                   Range of acceptable pricing
                                                                                                   for interested consumers is
                                                                                                   between $7 to $11 per month
                                                                                                   for this service

                                                                                             Consumers would
                                                                                               upgrade their broadband
                                                                                               to gain access to web
                                                                                               video to TV
                                                                                                   39% of broadband
                                                                                                   consumers would upgrade
                                                                                                   their broadband service for
                                                                                                   an additional $10 per month if
                                                                                                   web video to TV were
                                                                                                   available for free with
                                                                                                   premium broadband

               Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                        Base: Interested Consumers

Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group       45
CE Manufacturers Do Not Currently
           Have Edge in Device Choice
                             Consumers Limiting Internet Video Viewing                                               Consumers prefer
                                     Due to Video Quality                                                               to enable their
                                                                  Other 2%                                              web video to TV service
                                                                          Gaming Console 7%
                                                                                  Home Media Server 7%
                                                                                                                        through stand-alone,
                                                                                                                        service-specific devices
                                            Stand-Alone
                                               Device
                                                                                     Blue-Ray
                                                                                     Disc Player 9%
                                                                                                                        (such as Roku, Apple
                                                30%
                                                                                                                        TV) or their existing set-
                                                                             TV
                                                                            16%                                         top boxes
                                                      Set-Top
                                                        Box
                                                        29%                                                          Most important factors
                                                                                                                        in choosing device were
                      Device Selection Criteria (select all that apply)
                                                                                                                        price, ease of
                                                                                                                        installation, and the
                                                                                                             38%
                                                                                                       36%
                                                                                                                        desire to limit the
                                                                                              30%                       number of devices in
                                                                                  22%                                   the home
                                                                      10%


                                                     3%
                                                                8%
                                                                                                                     62% did not cite cost
                                                                                                                        as a factor
                                                                                                                         Base: Interested in Web Video to TV
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                     Cisco Confidential         Internet Business Solutions Group      46
SPs Have Many Options in Developing
          Their Advanced Video Strategy
          Consumer Interest in Select Advanced Video Service Concepts
Connected Home                                               A service that makes it easy to move digital content such
Move Digital Content                                         as photos, music, and videos from any TV or computer
Around the Home                                              in the home to any other TV or computer in the home
                                                                                                                                           44%

Select Camera                                              A feature that enables you to choose from different
Angles                                                     camera angles to view your show                                                 25%

Social TV                                                  A "Friend-to-Friend TV" feature that enables you to invite
Friend-to-Friend Chat                                      friends to participate in interactive chat sessions while you                   23%
                                                           watch TV and to share the same viewing experience


Interactive TV                                             A feature that enables you to use your TV to retrieve
Retrieve More Info                                         information and videos about the program you are                                34%
                                                           watching, while you are watching it

Internet                                                   A service that provides quick access to a selection of
Widgets                                                    Internet sites directly from your TV                                            34%
           Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010                                  Consumers’ rating interest 6+ on a 10-point scale
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.         Cisco Confidential         Internet Business Solutions Group         47
Service Provider Next Steps:
           Preparing for Video Disruption
  Consumer video entertainment is poised
   for significant disruption
  As incumbents, SPs are strongly
   positioned, but many factors are outside
   their control
  To prepare for the disruption, SPs can:
     1.  Develop services, such as web video to
         TV, that provide consumers with more
         control
     2.  Stay ahead of changes in the video
         experience, such as interactivity and TV-
         based Internet access
     3.  Fully take advantage of monetization
         options to capture and retain value across
         the complete portfolio and full customer
         lifecycle
          Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010

Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   Internet Business Solutions Group   48
US Market Transitions In Consumer Video

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US Market Transitions In Consumer Video

  • 1. Connected Life Market Watch: Transitions in U.S. Consumer Video Entertainment Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group July 2010 Kate Griffin Kate Griffin Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group
  • 2. Connected Life Market Watch Program Transitions in Consumer Video Scope Approach •  United States Market Watch Program •  Cisco IBSG’s recurring primary research •  United Kingdom program •  Brazil •  Monitors changing consumer behavior to identify key market transitions •  China Methodology •  Germany •  Broadband consumers •  20-minute online survey •  5,500 total respondents •  December 2009 – January 2010 Segmentation   Used proprietary scoring methodologies to identify consumer “technology” segments Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 2
  • 3. Transitions in U.S. Consumer Video Entertainment Video Entertainment Today •  Traditional cable/satellite TV market is saturated •  Consumers have invested significantly in home entertainment equipment •  Traditional premium content still drives the market •  The Internet has become a key source for entertainment Key Transitions: Consumers Are Taking Control •  Consumer TV viewing behavior is changing (e.g., time shifting, device shifting) •  Consumers are exploring Internet video as a new source of video entertainment Impact of Transition •  Consumers are interested in alternative services •  New usage patterns can impact traditional TV revenue streams •  Interest differs by customer segment Going Forward •  Key trends to watch •  Service provider opportunities Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 3
  • 5. Mature, Mostly Saturated Pay-TV Market U.S. Pay-TV Households Monthly Pay-TV ARPU U.S. Pay-TV Market Share as Percentage of Total US $ 2000 Satellite Cable 17% 83% IPTV 6% 2009 Satellite 63% Cable 63% At 90% of households, With average monthly spending of Competition is increasing from U.S. pay-TV market is saturated. $62, consumer market for advanced new players (IPTV, Apple TV, Hulu). pay-TV services may be tapped out. Source: Screen Digest, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 5
  • 6. Traditional Content Still Drives Industry Most Important Attribute to Video Experience Interest in Viewing Ranked #1 by Consumers, for All Viewing Devices Internet Video on TV % of Respondents Ranking Factor #1 by Type of Content Content Content is most important part of the Even with Internet-sourced experience, even as consumers explore video, consumers are most new devices and video sources. interested in traditional, professional content. Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 6
  • 7. Consumers Are Investing Heavily in Home Video Experience Average Broadband Household: U.S. Broadband Consumers Subscribe to cable/satellite/telco TV 89% •  Has 2.6 TVs, including 1 HDTV Subscribe to premium movies 34% •  Spends more than $60 per month Subscribe to Netflix 30% for pay-TV service Have HDTV 58% •  Spends another $20 on other Have DVR 42% forms of video watched at home Have gaming console with DVD 37% functionality Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 7
  • 8. Consumers Spend More Time on Internet than Watching TV   Consumers spend Internet and TV Viewing by Age more time in front of the computer Age screen than the TV screen   Entertainment- focused Internet time does not exceed TV time, but it is significant, especially among those under 30 Hours per week Internet Video Time Spent Other Internet Time Spent Other Internet Time Spent Watching TV Entertainment Time Spent Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group
  • 9. #1 Reason Consumers Use the Internet Is Entertainment Consumer Internet:   More time is spent on Internet Time Spent by Category entertainment than on other Internet categories among all age groups Other 10%   Broadband consumers spend Work or Shopping School more than 25 hours per week 8% 18% on the Internet—more than 7 of them on entertainment News and Information Communicate   Internet as an entertainment 15% 21% vehicle is not limited to early Entertainment technology adopters 29% Late market adopters spend more of their Internet time on entertainment than earlier technology adopters do Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 9
  • 10. Key Transitions Consumers Are Taking Control of Video Experience 10
  • 11. Consumers Are Taking Control of Video Entertainment Experience 2006 Time Magazine   DVRs taught users they Person of the Year could take control of video experience   This increased user control is driving four interrelated trends: 1.  Time shifting Consumers 2.  Device shifting got the 3.  Increased video sourcing message options (e.g., Internet) 4.  Increased spending control   Together, these are part of larger, viewer-controlled viewing trend Source: Time Magazine, 2006; Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 11
  • 12. Traditional TV Experience Is Changing Consumers Are No Longer Making Appointments with Their TVs Real-Time vs.. Controlled Viewing (Percentage of Time Spent)   Consumers are changing their usage patterns Average DVR Owners   They are no longer making appointments Viewer- with their TV Controlled Viewing Viewer- Controlled Viewing   They want to watch 38% 58% Real-Time their video Real-Time Viewing Viewing 42% entertainment at the 62% time they choose Base: U.S. Broadband Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Consumers with DVRs Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 12
  • 13. The TV-Content “Walled Garden” Is Cracking Consumers Are Supplementing TV with Other Video Weekly Time Spent on Weekly Time Spent on Video Video Entertainment Entertainment by Age Portable devices Computer-based DVDs VoD Hours per Week Hours per Week DVR Real-time TV Age Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 13
  • 14. Consumers Are Aware of Their Many Choices in Video Entertainment In an average month:   33% of broadband consumers watch TV programs on the Internet   Broadband consumers watch more than 4 hours of video on the Internet   11% connect their computer to the TV   Another 11% watch video on their mobile phone   23% of broadband consumers use their gaming consoles to watch DVDs   9% rent a movie online from their gaming console Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 14
  • 15. Consumers Are Exploring Alternative Video Entertainment Percentage of Broadband Users that Use Alternative Video Sources United Kingdom Germany 68% 70% United States 61% 45% 38% 26% 75% 52% 40% China Brazil 99% 90% 88% 95% 83% 67% Source: Cisco IBSG Connected In a given month, more U.S. broadband consumers watch TV programs on Life Market Watch, 2010 the Internet than watch on-demand videos on TV (33% vs.. 23%) Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 15
  • 16. Today, TV Is Consumers’ Preferred Device for Video Entertainment Device Used To Watch Video Entertainment Consumers Like Their as a Portion of Total Spend Video Entertainment on TV Computer Portable 5.5% Devices 1.5%   58% of U.S. broadband consumers have a high- definition television at home   The #1 reason consumers don’t watch more Internet video today is because they’d Television 93% rather watch video entertainment on a TV screen than on a computer screen Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers But that is changing… Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 16
  • 17. Young Consumers Watch Less TV Young Viewers Watch Nearly Twice as Much Non-TV Video as Average Broadband User Device Used To Watch Video Entertainment   Average U.S. broadband as Portion of Total Spending Portable Devices 4% consumer spends 1.3 hours per week watching video on a computer Computer 14%   Average 18- to 24-year-old broadband consumer spends nearly twice that time, watching 2.5 hours of video on a Television computer per week 82%   On average, U.S. broadband consumers watch 21 minutes of video per week on portable Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers devices, while 18- to 24-year- Between 18–24 Years olds watch 38 minutes Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 17
  • 18. Consumers Often Choose Alternative Devices, Even When TV Is Available Consumers Watch Video on Their Computers To Time-Shift and Multi-task   75% of respondents watch Reasons for Watching Computer Video video on computers, When At Home averaging about 1 hour, 45 minutes each week 63% of the time at home 93% of 18- to 24-year-olds watch video on a computer, averaging 2 hours, 45 minutes   40% of respondents watch video using portable devices, averaging about 54 minutes each week 39% of this time they are at home Base: Watch Video on the Computer at Home Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 18
  • 19. Consumers of All Ages Watch All Types of Internet Video Content Internet Video Is No Longer Defined Only by Young People Watching YouTube Watching Internet Video (by Age) Watching Internet Video (by Content) 93% 61% 80% 81% 52% 51% 67% 38% 55% 25% Time 2.6 1.7 1.1 47 43 per week hours hours hours min min Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 19
  • 20. Time Spent Watching Internet Video Is Growing More Than Half of Broadband Consumers Watch TV on the Internet   In the 18 months ending Increase in TV Viewership on the Internet (July 2008 to Dec. 2009) December 2009, there was about a 10% increase in the Percentage of Consumers number of people who watch TV on the Internet   comScore reports even more aggressive growth, with a 10% increase in total online video viewers in the last 6 months of 2009   Time spent viewing online video has grown 17% since July 2008 Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; comScore, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 20
  • 21. Internet Video Has Different Value Proposition from Traditional TV Reasons for Watching/Downloading Online Video Choice, control and convenience are driving Internet TV use   “Snacking” and new non-TV content are key drivers Source: Cisco IBSG U.S. Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Internet Video Viewers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 21
  • 22. Internet Video Use Is Driven by Friends and In-Home Entertainment Reasons for Watching/Downloading Online Video   In the last year, two factors have gained importance as drivers of Internet video usage: Shared experience In-home entertainment July 2008 December 2009 Source: Cisco IBSG U.S. Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Internet Video Viewers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 22
  • 23. Nearly 30% of Consumer Video Spending Is for Supplemental Video Options U.S. Broadband Consumers’ Monthly   Consumers supplement Video Spending their basic TV experience •  Premium movie with as many as 7 other channels sources of video •  Mail-based rentals •  VoD/PPV   Consumers can exert more Secondary •  Rentals immediate control over these Video $14.40 $22.69 •  DVD purchases a la carte options •  Internet downloads & subscriptions They have flexibility and can •  Kiosks select the secondary video Primary Video $30.00 option that best suits a given situation $56.08 Average monthly subscription for In many cases, they can adjust cable, satellite, or their spending incrementally Pay TV without entirely canceling or abandoning the service Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 23
  • 24. Secondary Video Market Is Fragmented, with Opportunity for New Entrants Penetration and Spending in Secondary Video Market   Fragmentation and shift in secondary market make it easier to displace than primary   Consumers use multiple Spending Penetration methods; few attached to any one   While representing the highest adoption, DVD purchase and retail rental are declining   High DVD purchase suggests desire to “own” media, which presents opportunity in digital, online world Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2008, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 24
  • 25. Spending in Secondary Video Is Shifting from Traditional Media to Internet   Total secondary video Shifting Secondary Video Spending July 2008 to December 2009 market declined 10% in 18 months   Decline led by DVD purchase and rental declines; at same time, Internet movie down- loads increased by nearly 30%   In 2010, 22% of respondents expect to spend less on DVDs; these reductions may not be fully reallocated to Spending on DVDs other video options, but Spending on DVD Rental (retail) Spending on Internet Downloads instead to savings and Total Secondary Market Spending other nonvideo expenses Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 25
  • 26. Younger Consumers Allocate More Spending to Secondary Video Options Monthly Video Spending by Age   Greater reliance on secondary video among Primary Secondary younger consumers could support rapid shifts in spending   On average, consumers between 25 and 29 spend more than $5 per month on Internet video % Spent on Secondary 38% 39% 32% 24% 12% Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 26
  • 27. Impact of Transitions in Consumer Video 27
  • 28. Consumers Are Ready for New TV Services, Such as Web Video to TV Service Concept: Web Video to TV Consumer Interest in a Service that Simply and Easily Enables Internet   Web video to TV makes it simple and easy Video on TV to watch all the different types of video available on the Internet today on your TV instead of on your computer   This includes: Strong Interest 43% Full-length movies and TV shows from sites like 4% Hulu, Amazon Unbox, and ABC.com Professional short videos from sites like CNN.com, Moviefone.com Significant Interest User-created short videos from sites like 14% Facebook and YouTube   For web video to TV, use your TV's remote control to find and select a video from an Internet site and watch it directly on TV Question:   Web video to TV is enabled through a How interested would you be in this offering, if it device attached to your TV and is separate were priced at a level you consider reasonable? from your TV service, so it does not provide access to your regular TV channels Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 28
  • 29. Web Video to TV Service Would Address Many Consumer Pain Points Important Drivers of Interest in Web Video to TV   Moving Internet video to the TV is important, but not the only driver   Consumers want control of when they choose to watch their video entertainment   Web video to TV addresses many other consumer pain points, from access, to content, Respondents Rank 6+ on 10-point scale to total spending Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: Any Interest in Web Video to TV Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 29
  • 30. Concept Attracts Average Consumers Who Want To Control TV Experience Profile Comparison Web Video To TV Strong Interest versus Average U.S. BB Consumer Profile of Initial Target Segment: Profile of Initial Target Segment:   Average TV usage and spending   Average TV usage and spending   Younger and more likely to have   Younger and more likely to children living at have children living at home home   Have strong   Have strong existing alternative existing alternative TV behavior TV behavior   More likely to want   More likely to want to control their TV viewing Average respondent to control their TV Strong interest in web video to TV viewing Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 30
  • 31. Consumers Under 30 Are Less Tied to Traditional TV 18-24 25-29 30+ Watch video on computer 2.8 hours 2.2 hours 1.3 hours Higher (hours per week) Usage of Watch TV via Internet 42% 28% 13% (weekly or more) Alternative Connect computer to TV (at any time) 31% 39% 16% Purchase movies via gaming console 19% 19% 11% (at any time) Spend on online video $3.00 $5.20 $1.20 (average per month) 18-24 25-29 30+ Watch TV on TV Lower (hours per week) 13 hours 16 hours 23 hours Usage of Real-time viewing Traditional 55% 50% 65% (as percent of total video entertainment) Spending on cable/satellite TV service $57.20 $63.20 $71.01 (average among users) Current cable/satellite subscribers likely to cancel cable/satellite 8% 7% 5% (if Internet video available on TV) Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 31
  • 32. Some Groups Are Abandoning Traditional Pay TV Internet Video Dominant   10% of this group already use Internet video for most of their video viewing   20% of this group do not subscribe to pay TV   Another 10% would cancel pay TV if Internet video were A smaller group (3%) of accessible easily on TV consumers have no TV   This group is younger and more service at all likely to live with roommates or They use only their computer parents and, in general, spend and/or portable devices to more time on the Internet meet their video entertainment needs Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 32
  • 33. However, Traditional TV Has Strong Appeal for Key Market Segments   Older consumers spend more time and money on TV   Families are heavy time shifters and strong Internet video watchers, but they are not likely to cut the cable cord Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 33
  • 34. For Some Consumers, Internet Video Is Cannibalizing Traditional Linear TV Change in Time Spent Watching TV   For 70% of consumers, Internet After Beginning To Watch Internet TV TV viewing has not impacted time spent watching TV 18% watch less on TV since they Less began watching Internet TV 18% 12% watch more TV on television More now, supporting theory that 12% Internet can find new user bases The Same 70% and/or help keep users loyal   There is more cannibalization effect in younger consumers 31% of Internet TV viewers aged Question: Since you began watching TV programs on the 18-24 say they watch less TV on Internet, do you spend more, less, or the same television since they began time watching TV programs on a television? watching Internet TV Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 34
  • 35. As Alternatives Enter the Market, Internet Video Could Threaten SP Core Businesses Question: Potential To Cancel Pay TV Service (Percentage of subscribers responding they would cancel) Imagine that you were able to access web video to TV for free, and that you could easily watch all Internet video content on your TV. Web video to TV includes on-demand Potential to Cancel Premium Movie Subscription access to prime-time TV (Percentage of subscribers responding they would cancel) shows, but does not include your regular TV service or your TV lineup as it airs. Would you make any changes to your current TV service package? While the greatest threat is in secondary video, even the core primary video market could be impacted Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 35
  • 36. Evaluating the Long-Term Threat Will today’s 20-somethings stay less attached to traditional pay TV as they age? Forecasting Future TV Behavior What’s Likely To Change •  More disposable income •  Investment in home technology (e.g., HDTV) •  Time spent at home •  Degree of “busy-ness” •  Extreme behavior is averaged out. Household Young Adults Aging (30+) decisions are compromises based on interest and (18 – 30) •  Married, w/ needs of multiple people. •  Unmarried children •  No children •  Financially stable What’s Likely To Stay the Same •  Living alone •  General level of technology comfort •  Early in financial •  Family needs •  Less time to •  Awareness of options independence •  Desire for control, choice, and convenience follow trends Market Evolution •  As these consumers age, will they be presented with the same options available in today’s market? •  Or, will there be new options that make it easier to source video from alternative sources and watch it at home on TV? Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 36
  • 38. Trends To Watch: Migration 1 Moving Internet Video to the TV to TV The latest TVs & consumer   In-Stat predicted that all digital TVs would have at least 1 HDMI input by end of 2009 electronics products make it   21% of U.S. broadband consumers have already easier to watch Internet connected their computer to the TV video on TV   4% of broadband consumers have an Internet video device (Roku, Apple TV)   Netflix reports that half of its subscribers with broadband are getting movies on TV As Internet video moves to   Today, 93% of video entertainment is viewed on a TV; it is the preferred viewing device the TV, usage patterns will   The #1 reason consumers don’t watch more shift significantly Internet video today is because they’d rather not watch their entertainment on a computer   As CE offers make it easier to access Internet- sourced video on this preferred device, usage patterns could shift rapidly Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; In-Stat, 2008; company reports Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 38
  • 39. Trends To Watch: Quality Can Impact of 2 Impact Internet Video Use Quality Consumer Perception of Quality of Quality Will Play Role in Internet-Based TV Viewing Experience Evolution of Alternative TV Very Poor 2% Poor   Only 7% see Internet-based TV Very 5% Good video as being poor today 15%   This positive perception may be Adequate related to low expectations, because 39% Good 1 out of 4 Internet TV viewers say 39% that quality limits them from watching more Internet video   With improved quality, 29% of Consumers Limiting Internet Video Viewing Internet TV viewers and 37% of Due to Video Quality those watching Internet TV weekly would spend more time watching TV on the Internet   After competitors begin to match each other in content breadth and control capability, quality will rise in importance as a competitive differentiator Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 39
  • 40. Impact: Quality Improvements and TV Accessibility Could Boost Internet Video Reasons Consumers Don’t Watch More   Major protections for Video on the Internet traditional pay TV include screen preference, business models that enforce time delays, and video quality   The challenge: protections are not fully in the control of service providers   Changes in content distribution policy and technology can drastically impact consumers’ behavior Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: U.S. Internet TV Viewers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 40
  • 41. Trends To Watch: TV Screen TV Internet 3 Becomes New Internet Screen Access In January 2009, Yahoo! first announced distribution partners for its TV widgets. As widgets proliferate, Today, more than two dozen widgets are consumers may come available on TVs from Vizio, Samsung, LG, and Sony to recognize TV screen Three weeks after Verizon FiOS launched as another access point updated widgets, they reported that “millions” to the Internet of Tweets and Facebook gallery photos had been viewed by FiOS TV subscribers on their TVs   Today, only 1 out of 3 consumers express interest in accessing 2010 will be a learning Internet content from the TV year for consumers   In aided discussions with specific use cases, interest grows   Cisco IBSG expects competitive differentiation in GUI and general Market impact may not ease of use versus exclusive widgets or applications be in competitive   The significance of TV widgets may not be in the competitive edge differentiation, but in they deliver, but in their role in fundamentally changing the way consumer perception consumers view their TV screen—opening the door for Consumer TelePresence and other services Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010; Company Reports Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 41
  • 42. Trends To Watch: TV Social 4 Introduce Social Behavior into TV Behavior “TV is fundamentally a social experience, and the only reason people haven’t engaged socially with their TV screens to date is that they haven’t had a convenient way to do so.” —Forrester, August 2009 4 Potential Social TV Developments TV Watching Behavior Is Complex Applications that….   People watch TV alone about half 1 Enhance a live group experience the time Create a “virtual” group experience,   People multitask while watching TV 2 about 40% of the time watching TV with people in other locations The Value of Social TV Is 3 Foster interaction with the TV programming itself (decide plot lines, Unclear to Today’s Consumer vote on reality winners)   Only 14% say the desire to watch with others prevents them from watching 4 Create a peer recommendation more Internet TV engine and commentary on viewing   Only 23% of broadband consumers express interest in friend-to-friend social TV service Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2007, 2010; Forrester, 2009 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 42
  • 44. SPs Are Strongly Positioned To Deliver Internet Video to Consumers   66% of consumers choose an SP Preferred Provider for to deliver web video to TV service Web Video to TV United States   SPs can address consumers’ concerns, including up-front cost and quality Movie studio—2% Broadcast company—4%   To optimize any offer that requires Online aggregator—3% consumers to buy a separate device, SPs should work with retailers 55% would buy the enabling device Video rental—7% Retail store—4% at a consumer electronics or Internet retailer TV manufacturer—2% Gaming service—1%   This preferred position reflects the lack of activity in the market by any player, and could change quickly if any consumer electronics vendor, retailer, or aggregator launches aggressively Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: Interested in Web Video to TV, U.S. Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 44
  • 45. Service Providers Have Multiple Ways To Monetize Web-Video-to-TV Services Price Sensitivity: Web Video-to-TV   Consumers are willing to Monthly Basic Service pay directly for web (Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter) video to TV Range of acceptable pricing for interested consumers is between $7 to $11 per month for this service   Consumers would upgrade their broadband to gain access to web video to TV 39% of broadband consumers would upgrade their broadband service for an additional $10 per month if web video to TV were available for free with premium broadband Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Base: Interested Consumers Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 45
  • 46. CE Manufacturers Do Not Currently Have Edge in Device Choice Consumers Limiting Internet Video Viewing   Consumers prefer Due to Video Quality to enable their Other 2% web video to TV service Gaming Console 7% Home Media Server 7% through stand-alone, service-specific devices Stand-Alone Device Blue-Ray Disc Player 9% (such as Roku, Apple 30% TV) or their existing set- TV 16% top boxes Set-Top Box 29%   Most important factors in choosing device were Device Selection Criteria (select all that apply) price, ease of installation, and the 38% 36% desire to limit the 30% number of devices in 22% the home 10% 3% 8%   62% did not cite cost as a factor Base: Interested in Web Video to TV Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 46
  • 47. SPs Have Many Options in Developing Their Advanced Video Strategy Consumer Interest in Select Advanced Video Service Concepts Connected Home A service that makes it easy to move digital content such Move Digital Content as photos, music, and videos from any TV or computer Around the Home in the home to any other TV or computer in the home 44% Select Camera A feature that enables you to choose from different Angles camera angles to view your show 25% Social TV A "Friend-to-Friend TV" feature that enables you to invite Friend-to-Friend Chat friends to participate in interactive chat sessions while you 23% watch TV and to share the same viewing experience Interactive TV A feature that enables you to use your TV to retrieve Retrieve More Info information and videos about the program you are 34% watching, while you are watching it Internet A service that provides quick access to a selection of Widgets Internet sites directly from your TV 34% Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Consumers’ rating interest 6+ on a 10-point scale Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 47
  • 48. Service Provider Next Steps: Preparing for Video Disruption   Consumer video entertainment is poised for significant disruption   As incumbents, SPs are strongly positioned, but many factors are outside their control   To prepare for the disruption, SPs can: 1.  Develop services, such as web video to TV, that provide consumers with more control 2.  Stay ahead of changes in the video experience, such as interactivity and TV- based Internet access 3.  Fully take advantage of monetization options to capture and retain value across the complete portfolio and full customer lifecycle Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group 48