1.
Memorandum
Celinda Lake To:
Interested
parties
President
From:
Celinda
Lake
and
Daniel
Gotoff,
Lake
Research
Partners
Alysia Snell
Partner
Subject:
New
Findings
from
Gubernatorial
Survey
in
Southeast
Pennsylvania
Date:
March
11,
2010
Michael Perry
Partner
A
recent
survey
of
likely
General
Election
voters
in
Southeastern
Pennsylvania1
David Mermin reveals
Joe
Hoeffel
is
the
strongest
Democrat
in
the
race
and
the
candidate
best
Partner positioned
to
beat
Tom
Corbett
in
November.
Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.  Hoeffel
is
the
only
Democratic
candidate
for
Governor
with
a
solid
base
of
Partner support
in
the
region,
the
largest
in
the
state
and
the
one
which
any
Democrat
Daniel R. Gotoff
must
win
decisively
in
order
to
prevail
statewide2.
Partner  Hoeffel
starts
out
with
a
lead
over
Tom
Corbett
in
Southeastern
Pennsylvania,
Joshua E. Ulibarri expands
that
lead
once
voters
learn
more
about
both
candidates,
and
retains
Partner that
lead
even
after
he
is
attacked.
Rick A. Johnson  Perhaps
most
important,
the
data
show
that
these
advantages
are
unique
to
Managing Director Hoeffel,
as
Dan
Onorato
is
in
the
exact
opposite
position.
Onorato
starts
out
well
behind
Corbett;
continues
to
trail
Corbett
even
after
a
positive
Tresa Undem
Vice President introduction;
and
loses
substantial
ground
after
voters
hear
criticisms
of
him.
Robert X. Hillman
Chief Financial Officer
+5 -12
In
an
initial
trial
heat,
Hoeffel
attracts
43%
of
the
vote
to
just
38%
for
Corbett,
with
19%
of
voters
undecided.
In
a
head-­‐to-­‐head
between
Corbett
and
Onorato,
on
the
other
hand,
Corbett
leads
by
a
double
digit
margin
(43%
Corbett
to
31%
Onorato),
and
26%
are
undecided.
1 Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 400 likely General Election voters in Southeastern Pennsylvania (including
Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties) The survey was conducted by telephone, using professional interviewers,
between March 1 and 3rd, 2010. The overall margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9 percentage points.
2
The region accounts for roughly 34% of the vote in the General Election and 40% in the Democratic Primary. In the 2000 General, the
Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Ron Klink, won 53% of Southeast PA, 51% of Western PA, and lost that race. In 2002 General, the
Democratic nominee for Governor, Ed Rendell, won 71% of Southeast PA, 50% of Western PA, and won that race.
1726 M Street, NW | Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 | T 202.776.9066 | F 202.776.9074 1
WASHINGTON, DC | BERKELEY, CA | NEW YORK, NY | LOS ANGELES, CA | RICHMOND, VA

2. Page 2
After
voters
in
the
region
learn
more
about
Corbett
and
Hoeffel,
Hoeffel
expands
his
lead,
even
breaking
the
fifty
percent
threshold
(51%
Hoeffel
to
43%
Corbett).
In
contrast,
even
simulating
a
strong
introduction
for
Onorato
in
the
Philadelphia
market—a
feat
that
would
consume
a
sizeable
share
of
his
resources
in
this
expensive
market—the
Allegheny
County
Executive
continues
to
trail
Corbett
(47%
Corbett
to
42%
Onorato).
The
text
of
the
messages
read
on
behalf
of
the
candidates
is
included
on
the
final
page
of
this
memo.
+8 -5
And
even
after
Hoeffel
undergoes
attack,
he
maintains
his
strength
of
support
over
Corbett
(50%
Hoeffel
to
41%
Corbett).
Under
the
same
simulation,
however,
Onorato
drops
back
down
to
an
8-­‐point
deficit,
trailing
Corbett,
45%
Corbett
to
37%
Onorato.
+9 -8
In
addition,
Onorato
faces
the
additional
barrier
of
his
wholly
unpopular
stance
on
choice
and
guns.
Voters
in
Southeast
Pennsylvania,
including
independents,
are
solidly
in
favor
of
a
candidate
who
supports
a
woman's
right
to
choose
(75%)
over
one
who
is
anti-­‐choice
(19%),
and
for
a
candidate
who
supports
gun
safety
measures
(59%)
over
one
who
supports
the
right
to
bear
arms
(35%).
There
is
very
little
quarter
for
a
conservative
(of
any
partisan
stripe)
in
Southeast
Pennsylvania.

3. Page 3
Would you be more likely to support a candidate who….
a…
These
challenges
aside,
the
dynamics
for
Onorato
in
Southeastern
Pennsylvania
are
already
quite
difficult.
Onorato
is
unknown
in
Southeast
Pennsylvania
(76%
have
never
heard
of
or
have
no
opinion
of
him),
his
image
is
divided
among
those
who
have
an
opinion
of
him
(13%
favorable;
11%
unfavorable).
Not
only
does
he
start
out
losing
to
Corbett
by
a
double
digit
margin,
but
even
after
a
solid
introduction
he
stays
well
behind
the
Republican.

4. Page 4
INFORMED
TRIAL
HEAT:
POST-­‐POSITIVE
MESSAGES
Now,
I
would
like
to
read
you
descriptions
of
the
candidates
for
Governor:
[ROTATE]
_Attorney
General
Tom
Corbett
is
a
lifelong
Pennsylvanian,
veteran
of
the
National
Guard,
and
father
of
two
who
married
his
college
sweetheart.
He’s
fighting
to
bring
a
culture
of
change
to
Harrisburg.
As
A.G.,
he
served
as
the
people’s
watchdog,
creating
programs
that
protected
seniors
from
fraud,
convicted
hundreds
of
Internet
predators
who
were
preying
on
children,
fought
government
corruption,
and
cracked
down
on
illegal
drugs
and
gangs
in
our
neighborhoods.
Tom
Corbett’s
pro-­‐business
record
as
Attorney
General
underscores
his
commitment
to
restoring
Pennsylvania’s
rightful
place
in
the
global
marketplace.
As
Governor,
his
top
priority
will
be
creating
good,
family-­‐
sustaining
jobs,
by
reducing
tax
burdens
and
regulations
that
drive
businesses
out
of
our
state.
And
most
important,
Corbett
will
lower
taxes,
cut
government
spending,
get
our
budget
under
control,
and
return
that
money
to
the
taxpayers.
_Joe
Hoeffel
is
a
husband,
father,
and
the
one
true
_The
son
of
a
mechanic
and
a
school
teacher,
and
the
progressive
in
this
race.
Joe
has
been
a
force
for
change
first
in
his
family
to
go
to
college,
Dan
Onorato
was
raised
at
every
level
of
government.
He
has
taken
on
special
on
the
importance
of
family
and
faith,
and
that
when
interests
to
pass
landmark
ethics
reforms.
He
has
been
times
are
tough,
everyone
pitches
in.
As
Allegheny
at
the
forefront
of
the
fight
for
good
jobs
with
good
County
Executive,
Dan
has
led
the
way,
cracking
down
on
wages,
and
against
sending
jobs
overseas.
He
has
led
the
waste
and
abuse,
cutting
taxes,
and
in
the
process
charge
for
a
healthcare
plan
that
puts
people
ahead
of
transforming
Western
Pennsylvania
into
a
hub
for
21st
insurance
profits
and
protects
a
woman’s
right
to
century
jobs.
He
took
on
members
of
his
own
party
to
choose.
He
is
a
leading
voice
for
investing
in
the
clean
reform
the
county’s
political
system.
Dan
is
running
for
energy
technologies
that
are
the
key
to
our
economic
Governor
because
the
culture
in
Harrisburg
needs
to
future.
Growing
up,
Joe’s
parents
instilled
in
him
the
change.
Pennsylvania's
families
are
tightening
their
belts
values
of
personal
integrity
and
social
responsibility.
during
these
tough
economic
times,
and
government
After
serving
in
the
Army
Reserves,
Joe
entered
public
should
do
the
same.
As
Governor,
Dan
will
create
the
service
and
has
built
a
record
of
strong
leadership
and
new
jobs
we
need,
drive
down
the
cost
of
health
care
fiscal
responsibility,
getting
results
for
middle
class
and
higher
education,
find
new
and
innovative
ways
to
Pennsylvanians.
Hoeffel
is
a
leader
who
will
take
bold
be
smarter
and
more
efficient,
and
bring
real
reform
to
action
to
put
people
back
to
work
and
turn
our
economy
government.
around.
Sometimes
over
the
course
of
a
survey
like
this
people
change
their
minds.
If
the
election
for
Governor
were
held
today,
and
the
candidates
were
[ROTATE]
_Tom
Corbett
and
_[Dan
Onorato/
Joe
Hoeffel],
for
whom
would
you
vote,
or
are
you
undecided?
Hoeffel:
51%
Onorato:
42%
Corbett:
43%
Corbett:
47%
Undecided:
6%
Undecided:
12%