"Despite Imminent Project Delays, 2015-2019 Deepwater Spend to Total $210 Billion"
Deepwater expenditure is expected to increase by 69%, compared to the preceding five-year period, totalling $210 billion (bn) from 2015 to 2019. This is the headline finding from Douglas-Westwood’s (DW) World Deepwater Market Forecast 2015-2019. Report author, Mark Adeosun, commented, “As production from mature basins onshore and in shallow water declines, development of deepwater reserves has become increasingly vital, particularly to the world’s oil majors. However, the recent oil price decline has intensified pressure on operator budgets. Consequently, numerous operators have deferred sanctioning of capital intensive developments.
“DW has identified a trough in global expenditure in 2015 and 2016 primarily driven by delays to delivery of FPS units in Latin America. We expect deepwater Capex to rise post-2016, driven by the continued development of deepwater fields off Latin America and West Africa, as well as new developments off East Africa. However, in the short-term, delays as a result of the oil price are causing significantly slower growth than was expected a year ago.”
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World Deepwater Market Forecast 2015-2019
1. World Deepwater
Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
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Despite imminent project delays,
2015-2019 deepwater spend to total
$210 billion
Deepwater expenditure is expected to increase
by 69%, compared to the preceding five-year
period, totalling $210 billion (bn) from 2015
to 2019. As production from mature basins
onshore and in shallow water declines, devel-
opment of deepwater reserves has become
increasingly vital, particularly to the world’s oil
majors. However, the recent oil price decline
has intensified pressure on operators' budgets.
Consequently, numerous operators have de-
ferred sanctioning of capital intensive develop-
ments.
Africa, Latin America and North America will
continue to dominate deepwater Capex, with
$173bn set to be spent over the next five years
with Africa forecast to experience the greatest
growth. The development of East African natu-
ral gas basins has not been aided by the plunge
in Asian gas prices; however, the development
of these gas basins is inevitable. The expected
recovery of oil prices will spark a revival in
LNG-related activities in the region towards the
end of the forecast period. Latin America will,
however, remain the largest market and North
America is expected to experience the least
growth.
In addition to the low oil price environment,
building oversupply and the lack of rig demand
will impact Capex growth over the forecast
period. In recent years, record deepwater rig
demand has resulted in unprecedented levels
of rig orders.
Douglas-Westwood (DW) has identified a
trough in global expenditure in 2015 and 2016
primarily driven by delays to delivery of FPS
units in Latin America.
DW’s 13th edition of the World Deepwater
Market Forecast covers all key commercial
themes relevant to players across the value
chain in the deepwater sector:
• Supply chain – detailing the financing of
deepwater developments, contractors,
equipment and installations. Includes analysis
of contracting strategies (e.g. frame agree-
ments), dayrates, key players and capabilities
of each sector within the deepwater market
(drilling, FPS and subsea hardware).
• Key drivers – discussion of factors encour-
aging deepwater activity – including robust
oil & gas prices, deepwater production to
offset declining production from onshore
and shallow water basins, E&P spend of
international operators and Petrobras’ activ-
ity in Brazil.
• Regional forecasts – forecast Capex within
each region, including examples of notable
projects and operators within the region
and countries with most activity.
• Component forecasts – drilling and comple-
tion (subsea and surface completed wells), sub-
sea production hardware, SURF and trunklines.
2. World Deepwater
Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
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• Focus areas – examination of deepwater
provinces, including recent discoveries in
East Africa.
• Procurement – factors affecting the deci-
sions facing FPS operators, whether to lease
or own vessels and details of major leasing
contractors.
• List of deepwater prospects – includes in-
formation on all identified prospects coming
onstream from 2015 to 2019 by operator,
location, water depth, number of trees and
status category.
Why purchase the Deepwater Market
Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector
players worldwide, with clients including the
world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10
oilfield services companies and top-10 private
equity firms.
The report is essential for financial institutions,
equipment manufacturers, offshore construc-
tion companies, drilling operators, oilfield
service companies, shipbuilders and oil & gas
companies wanting to better understand where
and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
• Unique and proprietary data – updated
year-round from published sources and
insight gained from industry consultation.
• Detailed methodology – the report uses
research from DW’s ‘Deepwater Database’,
an in-house information system exclusive
to DW. Our global analyst team is involved
in the gathering and analysis of deepwater
market data through primary research and
professional networks. A project-by-project
review of development prospects drives a
data-rich market model and forecast.
• Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive
examination, analysis and 10-year coverage
of deepwater expenditure.
• Concise report layout – consistent with
DW’s commitment to delivering value for
our clients, all our market forecasts have a
concise layout consisting of industry back-
ground and supporting materials condensed
to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’
summaries of key points throughout.
ISBN 978-1-910045-13-8
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3. 2015 World Deepwater Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2015-2019