Similaire à A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa (20)
A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa
1. A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food
Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the
Middle East and North Africa
Ghada Ahmed, Danny Hamrick, Sona Nahapetyan and Gary Gereffi – Duke CGGC at SSRI
Lincoln Pratson – Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke
Ghada Ahmed, CGGC, Duke University
MINERVA Annual Meeting, Washington DC, September 15, 2016
2. High food prices can be a tipping point
Food Inflation Riots, Spark Worries for World Leaders
— Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2008
2
4. Top down – the global economy with a focus on actor
networks, using varied typologies of “governance”
Bottom up – a focus on countries and regions,
analyzed in terms of economic, social and
environmental “upgrading” or “downgrading” 4
Approach
5. Food Security
Domestic
Regional
International
Dimensions of
Food Security
Geographic Scope
Actors
Availability
Production
Storage
Access
Prices
Incomes
Distribution
Marketing
Utilization
Domestic
End Use
Diet
Stability
Domestic
Regional
International
Shocks
e.g.
weather,
markets, &
unrest
Government
Traders
Firms
Intermediaries
Bakeries
Farmers
Bakeries
Households
Government
Traders
Banks
Drivers of Food
Security
The methodology investigates …
5
6. Inputs
R&D
Seeds
Land
Water
Fertilizer
Pesticide
Machines
Soft, Hard, Durum wheat
Smallholders
Large farms
Cleaning
Weighing
Grading
Elevators
Feed Mills
Livestock
production
Food
manufacturers
Bakeries
Wholesale
Supermarkets &
Grocers
Production Processing Marketing
Blending
Biofuels
Trade
Trading companies
Domestic
International
Certification
Mills
Milling
Packaging
Storage
Offshore production
Refineries
Labor
Supporting activities and institutions
Government Regulations Futures Trading Food aid
Trade Policies Financial Intermediaries Infrastructure
The wheat global value chain
6
8. Cheap bread impacts 75% of the
population in Egypt
Bakeries
Production Processing Consumption
• Bread rationing
• Food subsidy 2% of
GDP
• Available bread
$0.7/loaf
Small & Medium
Farms
Red: Acute disruption
points in wheat GVC
Currency Reserves
50% to $18.9 billion
Source: Suez Canal & Tourism
Mills
Importing 4 - 5 million tons
Storage
<3 months
8
Source: CGGC based on on 2013 data from primary and secondary sources
9. Bread, oil and water are key to gaining
power in the Syrian conflict
9
10. SOURCE: FAO, total tonnage of
wheat exported
Algeria
has imported
16.6%
of MENA’s
wheat since
2007
Different regions within MENA rely on different countries as their leading source of imported
wheat. Depending on the country, these relationships have persisted since 2007
Morocco
has imported
9.3%of
MENA’s wheat
since 2007
Egypt
has
imported
25.9%
of MENA’s
wheat
since 2007
France Russia AustraliaNo stickiness
Libya
Syria
Mauritania
Saudi Arabia
IranIraq
10
Russia is the largest supplier of MENA’s wheat
11. Low oil prices and currency devaluation
impacted Russian trade
11
March 2014
US & EU
Sanctions
August 2014
Russian
counter
sanctions
IMF estimates
Russian real
GDP reduced
by 1-1½ %
Source: IMF, 2015; Ahmed et al, forthcoming
Oil price drop
in 2014
January, 2014
$1=34 RUB
December, 2014
$1=80 RUB
High Inflation
Trade Barriers
12. Russia
• Import bans
• Frequent
draughts and
high weather
variability
• Limited access to finance
• Export production is
concentrated in central Russia
• Infrastructure deficit
• Trade
embargos and
restrictions
• Oligopolistic
markets
• Currency devaluation, inflation and regional stability
MENA
• Water
insecurity
• Arid land
• High subsidies
• Low
productivity
• Price Controls
• Infrastructure
deficit
• Limited port
and storage
capacity
• Low foreign
reserves
• Government intervention, high global prices and infrastructure
problems
Inputs Production Processing Trading
Currency devaluation and trade
barriers introduce uncertainty
15. Project Overview
15
• Multi-year project supported by US Dept. of Defense MINERVA Initiative and
Army Research Office for University-Led Research
• Collaboration with the Nicholas School of the Environment to study food
security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
• Rank food security of MENA countries based on multiple variables and data
sources
• Apply GVC approach to identify vulnerabilities and leverage points in key food
commodities in MENA countries
• Identify risks and strategic options to improve food security in the region
16. GVC contributes to studies of stability
by examining the nexus of policy and
trade
Domestic
Policy
Food
Prices
Global
Political
Economy
Social
(In)Stability
16
20. Wheat export ports
20
Glencore, Kernerl Group of Ukraine & others
United Grain Co. (50%), Summa Group
Outspan International
Source: Forthcoming Ahmed et al, 2015
21. Leading exporters of grains in Russia
21
38% by
International
Firms e.g.
Glencore,
Cargill
35% Domestic
firms e.g. RIF
26% small local
actors
1% by the state
agency United
Grain Company
Source: Forthcoming Ahmed et al