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A Decision/Action Model for Soccer

         A constraints led, interdisciplinary look at
        survival, winning, and growth in the game


“You need players who are ‘SOB’s’. There is no room for compassion on the
pitch. Outside the pitch the “street fighter” becomes a different person, just
as in the case with soldiers at the battle lines. This survival instinct brings out
forces that were unknown before. And, playing at the top-level is a battle for
survival. The story that it is just a game is ‘bullshit.’”[112]
Rinus Michels,
“He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives.”[115]
John Boyd




                                                                                      1
What is a model?
“When Gullit tried to transplant this Dutch art to Newcastle he was trying to do
                something impossible. He was bound to fail.”[17]



“A model, in the context of science, is a simplified
representation of some “real” phenomenon. Scientists
supposedly study nature, but in reality much of what they do is
construct and study models of nature… Models are ways for our
minds to make sense of observed phenomena in terms of
concepts that are familiar to us, concepts that we can get our
head around…” [113]

Models are what separate art from science. In soccer you need
both. [62,77]

A model is a tool that helps to communicate an idea between
people.


                                                                                   2
Examples of models
       “The map is not the terrain”




Metaphors,
analogies,
heuristics[29,68,69,87]
                           W=fd
                          a2+b2=c2    3
Common soccer models
         “Because the difference between making it and not making it is so small.
                           You find there are certain rules.” [11]


Technique, tactics,                           Pressing-counter attacking[112]
psychology, fitness[152]                      Interval training[75]
TIC[156]                                      Small-sided games[117,149,152,170]
SPIT, or TIPS[91,92]                          Scientific management[137]
Teambuilding[93,112]                          Whole, part, whole[34,146]
Coerver coaching[156]                         Block training[35,149,156]
Why goals are scored[84]                      Work to rest ratios[158]
Charles Reep statistical                      Training load analysis[158]
analysis[174]                                 Principles of play[161]
Dutch Vision[156]                             1st, 2nd, 3rd attacker & defender[177]
Periodization[158]                            Flat back four[171]
Zonal marking[118]                            Youth development models[76,152,156,170]
Deliberate practice[37,40,59]                 Psycho-kinetics[118]
10,000 hour rule[72]                          McDonaldization[125]
                                                                                    4
Limits on models
   “Naturally, an incongruence between a model and reality often exists”   [15]




There are descriptive i.e. ‘what’ models, predictive i.e. ‘how’
models or a combination.[62]
Descriptive models are analytical; predictive models are
synthetic.
They will be based on open or closed systems rules.[15,45,120]

“All models are wrong, some are useful. The problem is to
determine how wrong the model is before it is no longer
useful.” George Box

Models are context dependent. In soccer the context is a
problem to be solved or created, usually having to do with
goals. Problems are neutral, transient, dynamic, complex and
everywhere.[82]

                                                                                  5
So, what’s the problem?
                   “Everything you know about is not a problem” [11]



Simplistic problems: where there is only one answer and its easily
available; what is the score?            [128]




Deterministic problems: where there is one answer that requires the
use of a formula, algorithm or protocol, requires work; off side.                          [128]




Random problems: where there is space for only one answer but a
number of possible correct ones; who will win the EPL this year? [128]
    Note; the difference between random and deterministic problems may only be a question of time
     scales. In a match that time may not be available.[106]



Indeterminate problems: where the answer itself is complex, hard to
identify or changes with time, these are ‘wicked problems;’ starting a
club.[128]

                                                                                                     6
Wicked problems
                   “Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent
                        and well informed just to be undecided about them.” [39]

       As Rittel defined them, wicked problems are distinguished by the following characteristics:
1.     You don’t understand the problem until you have developed a solution.
2.     Wicked problems have no stopping rule.
3.     Solutions to wicked problems are not right or wrong, just better or worse in context.
4.     Every wicked problem is essentially unique and novel.
5.     Every solution to a wicked problem is a ‘one-shot operation,’ learn by trial-and-error.
6.     Wicked problems have no given alternative solutions, there is no clear model. [39]




Closed system, linear problem-solving model               Open system, two player complex model
                                                                                                  7
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act
      “The only special thing I have is insight; I see things a fraction earlier, and can
                 play the ball a fraction earlier to where it should be.” [11]

To create and solve problems in soccer:

Information is gathered through sensors; psychophysics. [135,157]
Players must understand their situation; distributed situational awareness.
[3,6,141,166]

Decisions have to be made; strategies for stopping points. [12,50,80,116]
Action must be taken and the process starts over again;
realization of the decision. [27,44,66,106,159]


Note: To take action in soccer all four
phases are needed. Eliminate any one
aspect and you’re dead.




                                                                                            8
Observing, orienting, deciding and acting is a process
          “More than ever the focus should be placed in the mental training
                 in the learning process from a young age on.” [112]



  All process models are based on the principles of “open
  systems.”[15,20,30]
  The OODA loop is a process made up of discrete iterations of
  itself.[101,157]

  In a time competitive environment like soccer, whoever moves
  fastest through these cycles gains an advantage. For greater
  action speed you can:
      Decrease the time of each cognitive cycle in your loop. Increase your
       opponents cognitive cycle time.
      Decrease the number of cycles in your loop. Increase the number of cycles
       in your opponents loop.
      Speed is relative to an active opponent.[106]


                                                                              9
Observing
            “The basis of coaching is observation.” [156]


Observation involves selecting and monitoring input among
multiple sensory systems over numerous frequencies and
channels, often in conflict against a background of noise. [ 106,173]

Observation influences what is being observed.                    [31,36]




In soccer observation is reciprocal and transient.                   [78]




It faces significant system constraints.            [44,78,159]




It combines an active search for, and a passive reception of,
meaningful data. [89,90,135]

It includes symbolic signals and intuitive patterns.                   [67,68,87]



                                                                                    10
Observing
    “‘His technique is no good.’ ‘How can you tell?’ Cruyff said: ‘It’s obvious.
                When he kicks the ball, the sound is wrong.’”[172]



The primary sensory channels are visual, auditory and tactile.                     [159,173]




While vision is the dominant, default sense it can be overridden by
sound and touch. [159,173]

The visual system is divided along a soft boundary between the
foveal and peripheral sub-systems. The foveal system is our
“center of attention.” The peripheral system provides the ‘field for
action’ and contains the ‘targets for attention.’[2,44,66,90,159,173]




                                                                                     11
Orienting
             “Behind every action there must be a thought.”   [17]




Orientation is the phase where genetic heritage, cultural
traditions, previous experience and learning strategies meet
unfolding circumstances and new information. This includes
feedback from our own decisions and actions. It is an unfolding
cognitive experience. [19,20]

As observations enter orientation a fundamental unconscious
decision is made, “do ‘I’ proceed directly to action or do ‘I’ need
to make sense of the experience?” [19,20]

This is the beginning to the most important question a person
can ask, “what do ‘I’ do next”? [62,101]




                                                                     12
Deciding
        “But you must choose and in soccer you have to choose very fast.
                         It happens in an instant.”[172]



All decisions are binary. It’s ‘yes’ to one and ‘no’ to all others.[12]


Decision cycles are not instantaneous points, they unfold over
intervals. They have a “soft boundary.” [47]


This works through unconscious parallel and conscious serial
processes;
“The brain begins to prepare several actions in parallel while collecting evidence for
selecting between them… The only points in the cognitive cycle where seriality is
enforced are the conscious broadcast and the action selection process…”[7,62,101]




                                                                                 13
Streams for deciding and acting
“Despite the apparent independence of the two streams, coordinated action is dependent
         upon a higher degree of cooperation between the two pathways.” [173]

 “System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense
 of voluntary control.”[87,150] It is driven by ambient vision, intuition, ‘Fast-and-Frugal
 thinking, and uses the Dorsal stream to bypass System 2. It’s fast, but limited in
 understanding, the ‘Just do it’ survival mode.[7,67,89,99,101]

 “System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it,
 including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are often associated
 with the subjective experience of agency, choice and concentration”.[87] It’s the
 ‘book smart,’ thrive/optimal mode and uses the slower Ventral stream.

 The two systems continually interact through conscious and unconscious processes.
 S1 answers the implicit ‘how or where’ questions while S2 provides the explicit
 ‘what’ context.[62]

 Planning and action ‘leapfrog’ each other. [122] “Action is seen, as it were, through
 the prism of ‘a decision’… ‘A decision reached’ is a manner of speaking abstractly
 about the myriad of decisions that occur in the process of responding to a patients
 disorder. It is not a decision but a sequence of acts of deciding being described as
 though it were a single decision. Language is always reducing complexities.” [116]
                                                                                         14
Acting
       “Football is best when it’s instinctive, when it comes from the heart.
           You talk about things after: in the game you just play.”[172]



“What I see depends heavily on what direction some set of
muscles turns my head, and in what direction some other set
turns my eyes. Sensory activity depending on motor activity. A
loud noise off to my left will result in an almost automatic turning
of my head to the left. Motor activity depending on sensory
activity. Sensorimotor activity, the essence of structural
couplings, cannot be easily teased into two. Also, sensing and
acting are not easily disentangled from cognition. All three are
intricately interwoven. [16,17,44,62,155]




                                                                                15
The mature OODA loop
“Our study of command and control theory starts with a simple model of the command and control process
 known as the OODA loop. The OODA loop applies to any two-sided conflict, whether the antagonists are
                 individuals in hand-to-hand combat or large military formations.” [106]




  “Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decisions, shapes action, and is in turn shaped by the
  feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.
  Also note how the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing
  process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection”. [25]


                                                                                                               16
The LIDA cycle                      [101]

  “Psychophysics began with a law and an inspiration. The law is Weber’s law, which tells us that, except
      at extremes, a just noticeable change in a stimulus is a constant fraction of that stimulus.” [135]




“During each cognitive cycle the LIDA agent… first senses its environment and tries to recognize familiar objects,
individuals, etc (perception phase). It then associates percepts with memories and other percepts and decides what
portion of this situation is most in need of attention (understanding phase). Broadcasting this portion (bringing it to
consciousness) enables the agent to choose a number of actions applicable for the current situation and to select
the action best serving its goals (action selection phase), and to finally execute the selected action.” [101]

                                                                                                                          17
What is the goal of human nature?
    “When you put on your shirt and lace up your boots, you have to win.
        Otherwise you should stay home and watch television.” [175]




“Survive, survive on own terms, or improve our capacity for
independent action.”[20]

“The competition for limited resources to satisfy these desires
may force one to: Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent
action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his terms, or
make it impossible for him to survive at all.”[20]




                                                                           18
How do we do that?
“It fits how von Clausewitz describes a coup d’oiel: ‘the rapid discovery of a truth which to the ordinary
      mind is either not visible at all or only becomes so after long examination and reflection.’” [52]



  “The degree to which we cooperate, or compete, with others is
  driven by the need to satisfy this basic goal. If we believe that it
  is not possible to satisfy it alone, without help from others,
  history shows us that we will agree to constraints upon our
  independent action—in order to collectively pool skills and talents
  in the form of nations, corporations, labor unions, mafias, etc. —
  so that obstacles standing in the way of the basic goal can either
  be removed or overcome. On the other hand, if the group cannot
  or does not attempt to overcome obstacles deemed important to
  many (or possibly any) of its individual members, the group must
  risk losing these alienated members. Under these circumstances,
  the alienated members may dissolve their relationship and remain
  independent, form a group of their own, or join another collective
  body in order to improve their capacity for independent action.”[20]



                                                                                                             19
Prioritize: people, ideas & tools, in that order
               “The most important factor is the quality of the players.” [112]



Models are the tools that we use to get ideas across to other
people. [113]

The tools have to match the situation, otherwise they’re wrong. If
the people you targeted aren’t getting the idea you’re using the
wrong tool, or the right tool incorrectly. [113]
People are the ultimate ends, ways and means, they are both the
tool and the target.
    “Key players that are team tactically mature and have credibility are invaluable
     extensions of the coach during training sessions and matches.” [112]




                                                                                  20
Constructing a model toolbox
   “In 1931 Kurt Gödel created a stir in the World of Mathematics and Logic… He
accomplished this by proving, first, ‘that any consistent system… is incomplete.’” [20]



Chris Anderson’s Long Tail model. “The long tail refers to the
statistical property that a larger share of the population rests within the
tail of a probability distribution than observed under a “normal” or
Gaussian distribution.”[Wikipedia]
    When your only tool is a hammer, all your problems look like nails.

Use many loosely coupled models from different fields, the more
the merrier.[17,109,173] No dogma because…

Box’s problem,[slide 5] Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem[20] and
Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety[113].
    Someone always has a bigger toolbox.




                                                                                          21
People in systems, constraints on the OODA
    “Panic ensues when members of a group lack superordinate goals-goals that
               transcend the self-interests of each participant.“ [166]


Subjective, the individual in isolation. The ‘subject’ of “small-world”
psychological models. This state is the goal for isolation, author.

“Inter-subjective meaning occurs when a persons thoughts, feelings,
and intentions are merged into conversation in which the individual is
transformed from me to us. People are joined or merged.”[13]

Generic subjective, “Organizations are included in the next level, the
level of social structure. ‘Social structure’ implies a generic self, an
interchangeable part – as filler of roles and follower of rules…”[13]

“Culture is extra-subjective. A generic self that occupies roles is now
replaced by ‘pure meanings’ (Popper, 1972) without a knowing
subject.”[13]




                                                                                22
Interaction and isolation
     “Football, he explained, eventually became for him a system of twenty-two elements – two
            sub-systems of eleven elements… If one were stronger, it would win.” [174]


 “Interaction permits vitality and growth while isolation leads to
 decay and disintegration.”[23]

 “The strategic game is one of interaction and isolation. A
 game in which we must be able to diminish adversary’s ability
 to communicate or interact with his environment while
 sustaining or improving ours.”[23]


 Three paths of influence come to mind:
1.       Moral; the social and cultural bonds between people.
2.       Mental; the ability to rapidly make sense and communicate.
3.       Physical; the ability to physically out act the opponent.
              Authors interpretation of Boyd.




                                                                                                23
Friction, the fog of war
"The odds are stacked against them (QPR). City are in good form, at home. On the face of it you expect City
           to win, but as long as humans are humans you hope something stupid to happen."
                                         Alex Ferguson – 05/11/2012



Clausewitz’s beautiful trinity; reason, emotion and chance.[31]

The unified concept of a general friction:
     Danger, which breeds fear.
     Physical exertion, which breeds fatigue.
     Uncertain information, which breeds doubt.
     Resistance within one’s own team, which breeds discord & discontent.
     Chance, which breeds confusion and hesitation.
     Physical and political limits, which constrains action.
     The opponent, an active obstacle with veto power that cannot be ignored.
     Disconnects between ends and means, poor planning, no way forward. [165]




                                                                                                          24
Sun-Tzu, cheng ch’i and yin yang
“A system is not supposed to behave outside the boundaries of the model… In sharp contrast to this stands
    the fact that organisms thrive on alternative behaviors – adaptation to and anticipation of changing
                          environmental conditions is what they are all about.” [16]

 Sun Tzu:
      “If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred
       battles.”
      “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”
      “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
      “The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike
       and destroy its victim.”
      “All war is deception.”[31,36]


 Cheng is the orthodox, the expected. Ch’i is the unorthodox, the shocking. Use
 Cheng to set up Ch’i. When they suspect Ch’i use Cheng.[115,133]

 Yin yang, “is used to describe how polar opposites or seemingly contrary forces are
 interconnected and interdependent in the natural world, and how they give rise to
 each other in turn. Opposites thus only exist in relation to each other… Yin yang
 are not opposing forces (dualities), but complementary opposites, unseen (hidden,
 feminine) and seen (manifest, masculine), that interact within a greater whole, as
 part of a dynamic system.” Wikipedia

                                                                                                        25
Surprise = deception, ambiguity & stealth
            “Two additional concepts are particularly useful in generating
                   combat power: ‘surprise’ and ‘boldness.’ [103]


“There are three basic ways to go about achieving surprise. The first is
through deception—to convince the enemy we are going to do
something other than what we are really going to do in order to induce
him to act in a manner prejudicial to his own interests. The intent is to
give the enemy a clear picture of the situation, but the wrong picture.[103]

The second way is through ambiguity—to act in such a way that the
enemy does not know what to expect. Because he does not know what
to expect, he must prepare for numerous possibilities and cannot
prepare adequately for any one.[103]

The third is through stealth— to deny the enemy any knowledge of
impending action. The enemy is not deceived or confused as to our
intentions but is completely ignorant of them. Of the three, deception
generally offers the greatest effects but is most difficult to achieve.” [103]


                                                                             26
Tempo
              “Players who can set the pace of the match
                  are the diamonds of the team.” [112]

Since soccer is an “open system” one is never at ‘rest.’ You are
continually moving from one space/time flow to another.

“Merging onto a highway is a small scale example… you must usually
bootstrap action while absorbing the current state of the situation.”

“Once you are settled into a routine in a domain, and attuned to the
local rhythms, your next challenge is to operate efficiently within it…
which I’ll call going with the flow.”

Pace-setting is the art of harmoniously driving the natural tempo of
your environment away from its current state and towards your
preferred state – slower or faster – in non-disruptive ways.”

Dissonance: Disrupting the flow. To create dissonance in artful ways,
you must develop a musicians aesthetic sensibilities. This is what will
turn a potentially dangerous and stupid sort of behavior into a
productive one.” [122]
                                                                       27
Psychological present & interval logic
        “Different schools of thought have called this ability "capacity of
     apprehension," "short-term memory," or "very short-term memory.“         [61]



“The psychological present corresponds to the duration of a experiential process and not to
a given period of duration. However, it has an upper limit which hardly exceeds 5 sec, and
has an average value of 2 to 3 sec. Within these limits one can speak of the perception of
duration, which thereby becomes a quantity whose beginning has not yet been stored in
memory.”[2,61]

“Popular decision-making models rely on what you might call point logic: the idea that a
decision is a point, a fork in a temporal road… a better scheme, which organizes
understanding of time around intervals rather than points, was worked out by… James
Allen… This scheme called interval logic, is a way of thinking about time that can raise the
sophistication of how you merge, go with the flow, set the pace, disrupt it, and put it all
together in your moments of inspiration.”[122]




                                                                                         28
Centers of gravity & critical vulnerabilities
“Boyd blames Clausewitz for not seeing ‘that many non-cooperative, or conflicting, centers of gravity paralyze
           the adversary by denying him the opportunity to operate in a directed fashion.’” [115]




  “We ask ourselves: Which factors are critical to the enemy? Which
  can the enemy not do without? Which, if eliminated, will bend him
  most quickly to our will? These are centers of gravity.” [103]

  “We obviously stand a better chance of success by concentrating
  our strength against some relative enemy weakness. So we also
  ask ourselves: Where is the enemy vulnerable… Therefore, we
  should focus our efforts against a critical vulnerability, a
  vulnerability that, if exploited, will do the most significant damage
  to the enemy’s ability to resist us.”[103]

  “Center of gravity and critical vulnerability are complementary
  concepts.”[103]


                                                                                                           29
Command & control
         “We talked always about speed of ball, space and time” [175]



“Any system comprising multiple, interacting elements, from
societies to sports teams to any living organism, needs some
form of command and control. Simply put, command and
control in some form or another is essential to survival and
success in any competitive or cooperative enterprise. Command
and control is a fundamental requirement for life and growth,
survival, and success for any system.”[106,177]

“Our study of command and control theory starts with a simple
model of the command and control process known as the OODA
loop.”[106]



                                                                        30
Command & control
“What obstacles must our command and control system overcome and what must it accomplish? First and
   foremost, the system must deal effectively with the twin problems of uncertainty and time.” [106]


    “Command and control is thus an interactive process involving
    all the parts of the system and working in all directions. The
    result is a mutually supporting system of give and take in which
    complementary commanding and controlling forces interact to
    ensure that the force as a whole can adapt continuously to
    changing requirements.”[106]

    “The defining problem of command and control that
    overwhelms all others is the need to deal with uncertainty.
    Were it not for uncertainty, command and control would be a
    simple matter of managing resources. In the words of Carl von
    Clausewitz, “War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of
    the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog
    of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating
    judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the
    truth.”” [106]
                                                                                                       31
Information flow in command & control
       “But the big change in Dutch Football happened when these ideas became words,
                   when Cruyff and Michels started talking about space.” [175]


“We initiate communications under two basic principles: supply-push
and demand-pull. A supply-push system pushes information from the
source to the user either as the information becomes available or
according to a schedule. The advantages of supply-push are that the
commander does not need to request the information and that the
information generally arrives in a timely fashion. The challenge with a
supply-push system is to be able to anticipate the commander’s
information needs. The danger of information overload arises primarily
from supply-push.” [106]

“By contrast, a pure demand-pull system does not rely on the ability to
anticipate information needs; it is inactive until a demand is made on
it. In a pure demand-pull system, the user generates all information
requirements. If the information is readily available the demand can be
filled quickly and efficiently. However, if the information is not readily
available, the demand typically triggers a “demand cascade,”… [106]

                                                                                       32
Tension in command & control
                          “Every disadvantage has its advantage.”   [175]



Intentional vs. emergent behavior, i.e. command vs. control;
  “The commander commands by deciding what needs to be done and by
    directing or influencing the conduct of others. Control takes the form of
    feedback—the continuous flow of information about the unfolding situation
    returning to the commander—which allows the commander to adjust and
    modify command action as needed.” – [106]

Task vs. system maintenance;
  “Autopoiesis is a process whereby a system produces its own organization and
    maintains and constitutes itself in a space. e.g., a biological cell, living organism
    or a society… Allopoiesis the process whereby an organization produces
    something other than the organization itself.” - Web Dictionary of Cybernetics and Systems

Entropy vs. complexity;
  Physical systems move towards maximum entropy, i.e. no organization while
    organic systems move towards complexity through evolution to survive. We are
    organic systems made up of physical components.


                                                                                        33
Distributed situational awareness
       “Emergent properties exist where the ‘characteristics of the whole are developed (emerge)
     from the interactions of their components in a non-apparent way…’ Emergent behaviour arises
     out of synergy, which is the product of interaction at a component level. Arguably, the goal of
              any command and control system is to maximise this synergistic effect” [162]



“We assume that, in distributed team work, cognitive processes occur at
the systems level rather that an individual level. [141]
First, the ‘knowledge’ that underlies DSA is distributed across the
system. Secondly, there is implicit communication of information rather
than detailed exchange of mental models. [141]
However, distributed SA requirements are not the same as shared SA
requirements. Shared SA implies shared requirements and purposes,
whereas distributed SA implies different, but potentially compatible,
requirements and purposes. [141]
Assuming that performance will be most effective when there is ‘good’
DSA throughout the system as a whole, it follows that the network links
are more crucial than the nodes themselves in maintaining DSA.” [141]




                                                                                                       34
Summary
       “It is essential that early on young talented players come in contact with the importance of
        teamwork while playing a match, not through tactical instructions made by the trainer or
       coach… In our welfare state such a rock hard mental burden is not easy to deal with.” [112]


1.   The dominant decisions/actions that players make in a game involves their interactions
     with teammates, opponents, referees, coaches, fans, parents, the ball, environmental
     and social factors. This is where cognition and the world interact. Theory meets reality.

2.   These decision/actions form dynamic, transient iterative cycles that organically build
     through work and decay through entropy. When cycles build they become more complex
     and specific. When they decay they lose relevance, unity and purpose.

3.   People are the most important component in decision/action cycles. They are the ends,
     ways and means. Whenever people interact problems are created. These problems take
     the form of friction. Cooperation aims to reduce friction; competition aims to amplify it.

4.   Each player strives to survive on their own terms and sees the game from a unique
     perspective. However, every player is constrained by their interactions with others. This
     creates dynamic, transient, complex command and control systems and networks.
     Players must intuitively know when, who and where to lead and or follow.

5.   Each player must be concerned with how others are seeing the game unfold. Every
     action should contribute to the teams harmony and cohesion by enabling interaction
     while attempting to reduce the opponents cohesion by morally, mentally, physically
     isolating it’s members. Other people, their perceptions and actions are the targets and
     tools for growth and survival and their influence on us cannot be summarily dismissed as
     an inconvenience. The battle on the field begins in the mind.

                                                                                                      35
Selected references
1.    ACKOFF, R. & ADDISON, H. 1988, Management F-Laws, How Organizations Really Work (Axminster, U.K: Triarchy Press).
2.    ALLPORT, D. 1968, Phenomenal Simultaneity and the Perceptual Moment Hypothesis (British Journal of Psychology, 59,
      395-406).
3.    ARTMAN, H. GARBIS, C. 1998, Situation Awareness as Distributed Cognition (Proceedings of ECCE’98, Limerick).
4.    ARTMAN, H. 1999, Co-operation Within and Between Hierarchial Units in Dynamic Decision Making (Ergonomics, Vol. 42,
      No. 11, 1404-14-17).
5.    ARTMAN, H. WAERN, Y. 1999, Distributed Cognition in an Emergency Co-ordination Center (Cognition, Technology & Work,
      1: 237-246).
6.    ARTMAN, H. 2000, Team Situation Assessment and Information Distribution (Ergonomics, Vol. 43, No. 8, 1111-1128).
7.    BAARS, B. FRANKLIN, S. 2007, An architectural model of conscious brain functions: Global Workspace Theory and IDA
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                                                                                                                           36
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                                                                                                                         37
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                                                                                                                          38
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53.   DUNBAR, K. 1999, How Scientists Build Models: InVivo Science as a Window on the Scientific Mind (From: Model-based
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54.   DYSON, B. GRIFFIN, L. HASTIE, P. 2004, Sport Education, Tactical Games, and Cooperative Learning: Theoretical and
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55.   EDELMAN, G. & TONONI, G. 2000, A Universe of Consciousness, How Matter Becomes Imagination (New York: Basic Books).
56.   ERIKSSON, S-G., RAILO, W. & MATSON, H. 2001, On Soccer (Spring City Pa: Reedswain).
57.   FAIRHOLM, M. 2004, A New Sciences Outline for Leadership Development (The Leadership and Organization Development
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58.   FLECK, T. & QUINN, R. 2002, The Baffled Parents Guide to Great Soccer Drills (Camden, Maine: Ragged Mountain Press).
59.   FORD, P. WARD, P. HODGES, N. WILLIAMS, A. 2009, The Role of Deliberate Practice and Play in Career Progression in
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                                                                                                                           39
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60.   FOWLER, C. 2002, Center of Gravity – Still Relevant After All These Years (USAWC Strategy Research Project).
61.   FRAISSE, P. 1984, Perception and Estimation of Time (Annual Reviews Psychology, 1-36).
62.   FRANKLIN, S. 1997, Artificial Minds (London, England: Bradford Book).
63.   FRIGG, R. HARTMANN, S. 1999, Scientific Models (The Philosophy of Science, An Encyclopedia, Vol.2 N-Z, 740-749).
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66.   GIBSON, E. 1988, Exploratory Behavior in the Development of Perceiving, Acting, and Acquiring of Knowledge (Annual Reviews,
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67.   GIGERENZER, G. GOLDSTEIN, D. 1996, Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality (Psychological
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68.   GIGERENZER, G. BRIGHTON, H. 2009, Homo Heuristics: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences (Topics in Cognitive Science
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69.   GIGERENZER, G. GAISSMAIER, W. 2011 Heuristic Decision Making (Annual Review Psychology, 62:451-482).
70.   GLADWELL, M. 2000, The Tipping Point, How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (New York: Back Bay Books).
71.   GLADWELL, M. 2005, Blink, The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (New York: Back Bay Books).
72.   GLADWELL, M. 2008, Outliers, The Story of Success (New York: Back Bay Books).
73.   GOFFMAN, E. 1959, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (New York: Anchor Books).
74.   GOLDBLATT, D. 2006, The Ball is Round, A Global History of Soccer (New York: Riverhead Books).
75.   GONCALVES, J. & MAZZEI, J. 1998, The Principles of Brazilian Soccer (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
76.   GREHAIGNE, J-F. RICHARD, J-F. GRIFFIN, L. 2005, Teaching and Learning, Team Games and Sports (London: Routledge).
                                                                                                                         40
Selected references
77.   GREN, M. ZIERHOFER, W. 2003, The Unity of Difference, A Critical Appraisal of Niklas Luhmann’s Theory of Social Systems in
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78.   GROSSMAN, D. 2004, On Combat, The Psychology and Physiology of Deadly Conflict in War and in Peace (Warrior Science
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79.   HAMMOND, G. 2001, The Mind of War, John Boyd and American Security (Washington D.C: Smithsonian Instition Press).
80.   HARRISON, W. 2010, Soccer Awareness, Developing the Thinking Player (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
81.   HAYES, L. 1992, The Psychological Present (The Behavior Analyst, 1992, 15, 139-145).
82.   HOVERSTADT, P. BOWLING, D. 2002, Modeling Organizations Using the Viable System Model (Royal Academy of Engineering,
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83.   HYBALLA, P. & TE POEL, H. 2011, Dutch Soccer Secrets (Maidenhead, England: Meyer & Meyer Sport).
84.   HUGHES, C. 1973, Tactics and Teamwork (Yorkshire, England: EP Group).
85.   JOHANSSON, F. 2004, The Medici Effect, Breakthrough Insights at the Intersection of Ideas, Concepts & Cultures (Boston, Ma:
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86.   JOURNAL OF SOCIALCYBERNETICS 2008, Vol. 6, No. 2.
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88.   KANDEL, E. 2006, In Search of Memory, The Emergence of a New Sciemce of Mind (New York: W.W. Norton & Co).
89.   KLEIN, G. 1998, Sources of Power, How People Make Decisions (Cambridge, Ma: MIT Press).
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91.   KORMELINK, H. & SEEVERENS, T. 1997, The Coaching Philosophy of Louis van Gaal and the Ajax Coaches (Leeuwarden,
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                                                                                                                          41
Selected references
92.    KORMELINK, H. & SEEVERENS, T. 1997, Developing Soccer Players, The Dutch Way (Leeuwarden, Netherlands: Uitgeverij Eisma
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93.    KORMELINK, H. & SEEVERENS, T. 1997, Team Building (Leeuwarden, Netherlands: Uitgeverij Eisma bv).
94.    KORMELINK, H. & SEEVERENS, T. 1999, Match Analysis and Game Preparation (Leeuwarden, Netherlands: Uitgeverij Eisma bv).
95.    KUHN, T.S. 1962, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).
96.    KUPER, S. 2011, Soccer Men, Profiles of the Rogues, Geniuses, and Neurotics Who Dominate the World’s Most Popular Sport
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97.    LAVE, J. & WENGER, E. 1991, Situated Learning, Legitimate Peripheral Practice (New York: Cambridge University Press).
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100.   LUHMANN, N. 2011, Familiarity, Confidence, Trust: Problems and Alternatives (Trust: Making and Breaking Cooperative Relations,
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103.   MARINE CORPS, U.S. 1997, MCDP 1, Warfighting (http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/service_pubs/mcdp1.pdf).
104.   MARINE Corps, U.S. 1997, MCDP 1-1, Strategy (http://navsci.berkeley.edu/ma20/MCDP%20Books/MCDP%201-1,Strategy.pdf).
105.   MARINE CORPS, U.S. 1997, MCDP 1-3, Tactics
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106.   MARINE CORPS, U.S. 1996, MCDP 6, Command and Control (http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/service_pubs/mcdp6.pdf).
107.   MARQUES JUNIOR, N. 2009, The Effect of the Peripheral Vision Training of the Quantity of Actions During the Attack of the
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                                                                                                                              42
Selected references

108.   MCSHANE, K. 2002, Coaching Youth Soccer, The European Model (Jefferson, N.C: McFarland & Co).

109.   MEIJER, O. BONGAARDT, R. 1998, Bernsteins Last Paper: The Immediate Tasks of Neurophysiology in the Light of the
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110.   MEMMERT, D. HARVEY, S. 2008, The Game Performance Assessment Instrument (GPAI): Some Concerns and Solutions for
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111.   MEMMERT, D. HARVEY, S. 2009, Identification of Non-Specific Tactical Tasks in Invasion Games (Physical Education and
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112.   MICHELS, R. 2001, Teambuilding, The Road to Success (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
113.   MITCHELL, M. 2009, Complexity, A Guided Tour (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press).
114.   MLODINOW, L. 2008, The Drunkards Walk, How Randomness Rules Our Lives (New York: Vintage Books).
115.   OSINGA, F. 2007, Science, Strategy and War, The Strategic Theory of John Boyd (New York: Routledge).
116.   PAGET, M. 2004, The Unity of Mistakes (Philadelphia, Pa: Temple University Press).
117.   PAUL, L. 2005, Playing Better Soccer is More Fun (Springfield, Va: Accotink Press).
118.   PERENI, A. & CESARE, M. 1997, Zone Play, A Technical and Tactical Handbook (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
119.   PORTER, B. 2002, The Voice of Reason, Fundamentals of Critical Thinking (New York: Oxford University Press).
120.   PRIGOGINE, I. 1996, The End of Certainty, Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature (New York: The Free Press).
121.   RAMSAY, G. 1999, Soccer for Girls (Brooklyn, NY: Welcome Rain).
122.   RAO, V. 2011, Tempo, Timing, Tactics and Strategy in Narrative-Driven Decision-Making (Ribbonfarm Inc).
123.   RICHARDS, C. 2004, Certain to Win, The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business (Xlibris Corporation).


                                                                                                                              43
Selected references

124.   RICHARDS, P. DUNCAN, R. MASCARENHAS & COLLINS, D. 2009, Implementing Reflective Practice Approaches with Elite Team
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125.   RITZER, G. 2008, The McDonaldization of Society 5 (Thousand Oaks Ca: Pine Oaks Press).
126.   ROTHBARD, M. 1979, The Myth of Efficiency (From Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium, 90-95).
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128.   ROYAL MILITARY ACADEMY SANDHURST 2011, An Officer and a Problem Solver: Developing Problem Solving and Thinking Skills
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129.   RUCKER, R. 1984, The Fourth Dimension, A Guided Tour of the Higher Universes (Boston, Ma: Houghton Mifflin Co).
130.   RUGBY FOOTBALL UNION, Squires, M. 2006 Observe – Orient – Decide – Act, The OODA Loop Overview (Rugby Football Union &
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131.   RUGBY FOOTBALL UNION, 2006, Coaches, Training Systems and OODA (Rugby Football Union & Mitchell Squires, 3-13).
132.   SAFRANSKI, M. & ABBOTT, D. et al. 2008, The John Boyd Roundtable, Debating Science, Strategy and War (Ann Arbor, Michigan:
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133.   SCHECHTMAN, G. 1996, Manipulating the OODA loop: The Overlooked role of Information Resource Management in information
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134.   SEEGER, J. 1992, “Open” Systems, Closed Minds (Systems Dynamics Conferences, 665-674).
135.   SHAPIRO, L. 1994, What is Psychophysics? (PSA 1994, Vol. 2, 47-57).
136.   SILVA, E. 2008, Measuring Skills for the 21st Century (Education Sector Reports, 1-11).
137.   SKINNER, B.F. 1971, Beyond Freedom and Dignity (New York: Bantum Books).
138.   SMELSER, N. BATES, P. 2002, Mental Models, Psychology of (International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences,
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                                                                                                                            44
Selected references
139.   SMITH, J. DISESSA, A. ROSCHELLE, J. 1993, Misconceptions Reconceived: A Constructivist Analysis of Knowledge in Transition
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140.   STAHL, B. 2005, The Obituary as Bricolage: The Mann Gulch Disaster and the Problem of Heroic Rationality (European Journal of
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141.   STANTON, N. et al. 2006, Distributed situation awareness in dynamic systems: theoretical development and application of an
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142.   STOOP, T. 2003, Coaching Under 8s, A Complete Coaching Course (Spring City Pa: Reedswain Publishing).
143.   STOOP, T. 2003, Coaching Under 10s, A Complete Coaching Course (Spring City Pa: Reedswain Publishing).
144.   STOOP, T. 2003, Coaching Under 12s, A Complete Coaching Course (Spring City Pa: Reedswain Publishing).
145.   STORR, J. 2001, Neither Art Nor War – Towards a Discipline of Warfare (RUSI Journal, April 2001, 39-45)
146.   SUTTON-SMITH, B. 1997, The Ambiguity of Play (Cambridge, Ma: Harvard University Press).
147.   TALEB, N. 2007, The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House).
148.   THELEN, E. 1995, Motor Development, A New Synthesis (American Psychological Association, Vol. 50, No. 2, 79-95).
149.   THORPE, R. BUNKER, D. ALMOND, L. 1986, Rethinking Games Teaching, (Loughborough University: www.tgfu.org)
150.   TVERSKY, A. KAHNEMAN, D. 1974, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No.
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151.   U.S. SOCCER FEDERATION, Best Practices for Coaching Soccer in the United States (Player Development Guidelines).
152.   U.S. Youth Soccer, 2005, Small Sided Games Manual (Coaching Education Department).
153.   VANDERGRIFF, D. 2006, Raising the Bar: Creating and Nurturing Adaptability to Deal with the Changing Face of War
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154.   VANDERGRIFF, D. 2008, Building Adaptive Leaders: The Army can Adapt its Institution (pt.1) (www.smallwarsjournal.com).
                                                                                                                             45
Selected references

155.   VANDERGRIFF, D. 2010, When do We Teach the Basics? (ndupress.ndu.edu, Issue 58, Third Quarter 69-74)
156.   VAN LINGEN, B. 1997, Coaching Soccer, The Official Coaching Book of the Dutch Soccer Association (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
157.   VANRULLEN, R. KOCH, C. 2003, Is Perception Discrete or Continuous? (Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 5 207-213).
158.   VERHEIJEN, R. 1998, Conditioning for Soccer (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
159.   VICKERS, J. 2007, Perception, Cognition, and Decision Training, The Quiet Eye in Action (Champaign, Il: Human Kinetics).
160.   VYGOTSKY, L.S. 1978, Mind in Society, The Development of Higher Psychological Processes (Cambridge Ma: Harvard University
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161.   WADE, A. 1967, The F.A. Guide to Training and Coaching (London: Heinemann).
162.   WALKER, G. STANTON, N. JENKINS, D. & YOUNG, M. 2010, A Human Factors Approach to Analysing Military Command and
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163.   WANDER, S. 2007, Rocky Mountain Death Trap, (NASA, System Failure Case Studies, Vol. 1, No. 7, 1-4).
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165.   WATTS, B. 1996, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War (McNair Paper 52, Institute for National Strategic Studies).
166.   WEICK, K. 1993, The Collapse of Sensemaking in Organizations: The Mann Gulch Disaster (Administrative Science Quarterly, 38,
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167.   WEICK, K. SUTCLIFFE, K. 2005, Organizing and the Process of Sensemaking (Organizational Science, Vol. 16, No. 4, 409-421).
168.   WEICK, K. 2007, The Generative Properties of Richness (Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 50, No. 1, 14-19).
169.   WEICK, K. SUTCLIFFE, K. 2007, Managing the Unexpected, Resilient Performance in an Age of Uncertainty, (San Francisco, Ca:
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170.   WEIN, H. 2000, Developing Youth Soccer Players, Coach Better with the Soccer Development Model (Champaign, Il: Human
       Kinetics).                                                                                                        46
Selected references

171.   WEIN, H. 2004, Developing Game Intelligence in Soccer (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain).
172.   WENGER, E. 1998, Communities of Practice, Learning, Meaning, and Identity (New York: Cambridge University Press).
173.   WILLIAMS, A.M., DAVIDS, K. WILLIAMS, J.G., 1999, Visual Perception & Action in Sport (London, England: Taylor &
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174.   WILSON, J. 2008, Inverting the Pyramid, A History of Football Tactics (Great Britain: Clays Limited).
175.   WINNER, D. 2000, Brilliant Orange, The Neurotic Genius of Dutch Football (London: Bloomsbury).
176.   WOOD, J. PETRIGLIERI, G. 2005, Transcending Polarization: Beyond Binary Thinking (Transactional Analysis Journal, Vol.
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177.   WORTHINGTON, E. 1974, Learning and Teaching Soccer Skills (North Hollywood, Ca: Hal Leighton Printing).
178.   ZEIGLER, E. 2005, History and Status of American Physical Education and Educational Sport (Victoria, B.C: Trafford
       Publishing).




                                                                                                                            47
Thank you
             “I’ll live or die by my own ideas.” Johan Cruyff [11]



Presentation created May, 2012 by Larry Paul, Prescott Arizona.
All references are available as stated.
All content is the responsibility of the author.
For further information, questions or to inquire how to arrange a consultation on
this topic you can contact me at larry4v4@hotmail.com, subject line;
decision/action model.




                                                                             48

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A decision action model for soccer

  • 1. A Decision/Action Model for Soccer A constraints led, interdisciplinary look at survival, winning, and growth in the game “You need players who are ‘SOB’s’. There is no room for compassion on the pitch. Outside the pitch the “street fighter” becomes a different person, just as in the case with soldiers at the battle lines. This survival instinct brings out forces that were unknown before. And, playing at the top-level is a battle for survival. The story that it is just a game is ‘bullshit.’”[112] Rinus Michels, “He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives.”[115] John Boyd 1
  • 2. What is a model? “When Gullit tried to transplant this Dutch art to Newcastle he was trying to do something impossible. He was bound to fail.”[17] “A model, in the context of science, is a simplified representation of some “real” phenomenon. Scientists supposedly study nature, but in reality much of what they do is construct and study models of nature… Models are ways for our minds to make sense of observed phenomena in terms of concepts that are familiar to us, concepts that we can get our head around…” [113] Models are what separate art from science. In soccer you need both. [62,77] A model is a tool that helps to communicate an idea between people. 2
  • 3. Examples of models “The map is not the terrain” Metaphors, analogies, heuristics[29,68,69,87] W=fd a2+b2=c2 3
  • 4. Common soccer models “Because the difference between making it and not making it is so small. You find there are certain rules.” [11] Technique, tactics, Pressing-counter attacking[112] psychology, fitness[152] Interval training[75] TIC[156] Small-sided games[117,149,152,170] SPIT, or TIPS[91,92] Scientific management[137] Teambuilding[93,112] Whole, part, whole[34,146] Coerver coaching[156] Block training[35,149,156] Why goals are scored[84] Work to rest ratios[158] Charles Reep statistical Training load analysis[158] analysis[174] Principles of play[161] Dutch Vision[156] 1st, 2nd, 3rd attacker & defender[177] Periodization[158] Flat back four[171] Zonal marking[118] Youth development models[76,152,156,170] Deliberate practice[37,40,59] Psycho-kinetics[118] 10,000 hour rule[72] McDonaldization[125] 4
  • 5. Limits on models “Naturally, an incongruence between a model and reality often exists” [15] There are descriptive i.e. ‘what’ models, predictive i.e. ‘how’ models or a combination.[62] Descriptive models are analytical; predictive models are synthetic. They will be based on open or closed systems rules.[15,45,120] “All models are wrong, some are useful. The problem is to determine how wrong the model is before it is no longer useful.” George Box Models are context dependent. In soccer the context is a problem to be solved or created, usually having to do with goals. Problems are neutral, transient, dynamic, complex and everywhere.[82] 5
  • 6. So, what’s the problem? “Everything you know about is not a problem” [11] Simplistic problems: where there is only one answer and its easily available; what is the score? [128] Deterministic problems: where there is one answer that requires the use of a formula, algorithm or protocol, requires work; off side. [128] Random problems: where there is space for only one answer but a number of possible correct ones; who will win the EPL this year? [128]  Note; the difference between random and deterministic problems may only be a question of time scales. In a match that time may not be available.[106] Indeterminate problems: where the answer itself is complex, hard to identify or changes with time, these are ‘wicked problems;’ starting a club.[128] 6
  • 7. Wicked problems “Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well informed just to be undecided about them.” [39] As Rittel defined them, wicked problems are distinguished by the following characteristics: 1. You don’t understand the problem until you have developed a solution. 2. Wicked problems have no stopping rule. 3. Solutions to wicked problems are not right or wrong, just better or worse in context. 4. Every wicked problem is essentially unique and novel. 5. Every solution to a wicked problem is a ‘one-shot operation,’ learn by trial-and-error. 6. Wicked problems have no given alternative solutions, there is no clear model. [39] Closed system, linear problem-solving model Open system, two player complex model 7
  • 8. Observe, Orient, Decide, Act “The only special thing I have is insight; I see things a fraction earlier, and can play the ball a fraction earlier to where it should be.” [11] To create and solve problems in soccer: Information is gathered through sensors; psychophysics. [135,157] Players must understand their situation; distributed situational awareness. [3,6,141,166] Decisions have to be made; strategies for stopping points. [12,50,80,116] Action must be taken and the process starts over again; realization of the decision. [27,44,66,106,159] Note: To take action in soccer all four phases are needed. Eliminate any one aspect and you’re dead. 8
  • 9. Observing, orienting, deciding and acting is a process “More than ever the focus should be placed in the mental training in the learning process from a young age on.” [112] All process models are based on the principles of “open systems.”[15,20,30] The OODA loop is a process made up of discrete iterations of itself.[101,157] In a time competitive environment like soccer, whoever moves fastest through these cycles gains an advantage. For greater action speed you can:  Decrease the time of each cognitive cycle in your loop. Increase your opponents cognitive cycle time.  Decrease the number of cycles in your loop. Increase the number of cycles in your opponents loop.  Speed is relative to an active opponent.[106] 9
  • 10. Observing “The basis of coaching is observation.” [156] Observation involves selecting and monitoring input among multiple sensory systems over numerous frequencies and channels, often in conflict against a background of noise. [ 106,173] Observation influences what is being observed. [31,36] In soccer observation is reciprocal and transient. [78] It faces significant system constraints. [44,78,159] It combines an active search for, and a passive reception of, meaningful data. [89,90,135] It includes symbolic signals and intuitive patterns. [67,68,87] 10
  • 11. Observing “‘His technique is no good.’ ‘How can you tell?’ Cruyff said: ‘It’s obvious. When he kicks the ball, the sound is wrong.’”[172] The primary sensory channels are visual, auditory and tactile. [159,173] While vision is the dominant, default sense it can be overridden by sound and touch. [159,173] The visual system is divided along a soft boundary between the foveal and peripheral sub-systems. The foveal system is our “center of attention.” The peripheral system provides the ‘field for action’ and contains the ‘targets for attention.’[2,44,66,90,159,173] 11
  • 12. Orienting “Behind every action there must be a thought.” [17] Orientation is the phase where genetic heritage, cultural traditions, previous experience and learning strategies meet unfolding circumstances and new information. This includes feedback from our own decisions and actions. It is an unfolding cognitive experience. [19,20] As observations enter orientation a fundamental unconscious decision is made, “do ‘I’ proceed directly to action or do ‘I’ need to make sense of the experience?” [19,20] This is the beginning to the most important question a person can ask, “what do ‘I’ do next”? [62,101] 12
  • 13. Deciding “But you must choose and in soccer you have to choose very fast. It happens in an instant.”[172] All decisions are binary. It’s ‘yes’ to one and ‘no’ to all others.[12] Decision cycles are not instantaneous points, they unfold over intervals. They have a “soft boundary.” [47] This works through unconscious parallel and conscious serial processes; “The brain begins to prepare several actions in parallel while collecting evidence for selecting between them… The only points in the cognitive cycle where seriality is enforced are the conscious broadcast and the action selection process…”[7,62,101] 13
  • 14. Streams for deciding and acting “Despite the apparent independence of the two streams, coordinated action is dependent upon a higher degree of cooperation between the two pathways.” [173] “System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.”[87,150] It is driven by ambient vision, intuition, ‘Fast-and-Frugal thinking, and uses the Dorsal stream to bypass System 2. It’s fast, but limited in understanding, the ‘Just do it’ survival mode.[7,67,89,99,101] “System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice and concentration”.[87] It’s the ‘book smart,’ thrive/optimal mode and uses the slower Ventral stream. The two systems continually interact through conscious and unconscious processes. S1 answers the implicit ‘how or where’ questions while S2 provides the explicit ‘what’ context.[62] Planning and action ‘leapfrog’ each other. [122] “Action is seen, as it were, through the prism of ‘a decision’… ‘A decision reached’ is a manner of speaking abstractly about the myriad of decisions that occur in the process of responding to a patients disorder. It is not a decision but a sequence of acts of deciding being described as though it were a single decision. Language is always reducing complexities.” [116] 14
  • 15. Acting “Football is best when it’s instinctive, when it comes from the heart. You talk about things after: in the game you just play.”[172] “What I see depends heavily on what direction some set of muscles turns my head, and in what direction some other set turns my eyes. Sensory activity depending on motor activity. A loud noise off to my left will result in an almost automatic turning of my head to the left. Motor activity depending on sensory activity. Sensorimotor activity, the essence of structural couplings, cannot be easily teased into two. Also, sensing and acting are not easily disentangled from cognition. All three are intricately interwoven. [16,17,44,62,155] 15
  • 16. The mature OODA loop “Our study of command and control theory starts with a simple model of the command and control process known as the OODA loop. The OODA loop applies to any two-sided conflict, whether the antagonists are individuals in hand-to-hand combat or large military formations.” [106] “Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decisions, shapes action, and is in turn shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window. Also note how the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection”. [25] 16
  • 17. The LIDA cycle [101] “Psychophysics began with a law and an inspiration. The law is Weber’s law, which tells us that, except at extremes, a just noticeable change in a stimulus is a constant fraction of that stimulus.” [135] “During each cognitive cycle the LIDA agent… first senses its environment and tries to recognize familiar objects, individuals, etc (perception phase). It then associates percepts with memories and other percepts and decides what portion of this situation is most in need of attention (understanding phase). Broadcasting this portion (bringing it to consciousness) enables the agent to choose a number of actions applicable for the current situation and to select the action best serving its goals (action selection phase), and to finally execute the selected action.” [101] 17
  • 18. What is the goal of human nature? “When you put on your shirt and lace up your boots, you have to win. Otherwise you should stay home and watch television.” [175] “Survive, survive on own terms, or improve our capacity for independent action.”[20] “The competition for limited resources to satisfy these desires may force one to: Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his terms, or make it impossible for him to survive at all.”[20] 18
  • 19. How do we do that? “It fits how von Clausewitz describes a coup d’oiel: ‘the rapid discovery of a truth which to the ordinary mind is either not visible at all or only becomes so after long examination and reflection.’” [52] “The degree to which we cooperate, or compete, with others is driven by the need to satisfy this basic goal. If we believe that it is not possible to satisfy it alone, without help from others, history shows us that we will agree to constraints upon our independent action—in order to collectively pool skills and talents in the form of nations, corporations, labor unions, mafias, etc. — so that obstacles standing in the way of the basic goal can either be removed or overcome. On the other hand, if the group cannot or does not attempt to overcome obstacles deemed important to many (or possibly any) of its individual members, the group must risk losing these alienated members. Under these circumstances, the alienated members may dissolve their relationship and remain independent, form a group of their own, or join another collective body in order to improve their capacity for independent action.”[20] 19
  • 20. Prioritize: people, ideas & tools, in that order “The most important factor is the quality of the players.” [112] Models are the tools that we use to get ideas across to other people. [113] The tools have to match the situation, otherwise they’re wrong. If the people you targeted aren’t getting the idea you’re using the wrong tool, or the right tool incorrectly. [113] People are the ultimate ends, ways and means, they are both the tool and the target.  “Key players that are team tactically mature and have credibility are invaluable extensions of the coach during training sessions and matches.” [112] 20
  • 21. Constructing a model toolbox “In 1931 Kurt Gödel created a stir in the World of Mathematics and Logic… He accomplished this by proving, first, ‘that any consistent system… is incomplete.’” [20] Chris Anderson’s Long Tail model. “The long tail refers to the statistical property that a larger share of the population rests within the tail of a probability distribution than observed under a “normal” or Gaussian distribution.”[Wikipedia]  When your only tool is a hammer, all your problems look like nails. Use many loosely coupled models from different fields, the more the merrier.[17,109,173] No dogma because… Box’s problem,[slide 5] Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem[20] and Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety[113].  Someone always has a bigger toolbox. 21
  • 22. People in systems, constraints on the OODA “Panic ensues when members of a group lack superordinate goals-goals that transcend the self-interests of each participant.“ [166] Subjective, the individual in isolation. The ‘subject’ of “small-world” psychological models. This state is the goal for isolation, author. “Inter-subjective meaning occurs when a persons thoughts, feelings, and intentions are merged into conversation in which the individual is transformed from me to us. People are joined or merged.”[13] Generic subjective, “Organizations are included in the next level, the level of social structure. ‘Social structure’ implies a generic self, an interchangeable part – as filler of roles and follower of rules…”[13] “Culture is extra-subjective. A generic self that occupies roles is now replaced by ‘pure meanings’ (Popper, 1972) without a knowing subject.”[13] 22
  • 23. Interaction and isolation “Football, he explained, eventually became for him a system of twenty-two elements – two sub-systems of eleven elements… If one were stronger, it would win.” [174] “Interaction permits vitality and growth while isolation leads to decay and disintegration.”[23] “The strategic game is one of interaction and isolation. A game in which we must be able to diminish adversary’s ability to communicate or interact with his environment while sustaining or improving ours.”[23] Three paths of influence come to mind: 1. Moral; the social and cultural bonds between people. 2. Mental; the ability to rapidly make sense and communicate. 3. Physical; the ability to physically out act the opponent.  Authors interpretation of Boyd. 23
  • 24. Friction, the fog of war "The odds are stacked against them (QPR). City are in good form, at home. On the face of it you expect City to win, but as long as humans are humans you hope something stupid to happen." Alex Ferguson – 05/11/2012 Clausewitz’s beautiful trinity; reason, emotion and chance.[31] The unified concept of a general friction:  Danger, which breeds fear.  Physical exertion, which breeds fatigue.  Uncertain information, which breeds doubt.  Resistance within one’s own team, which breeds discord & discontent.  Chance, which breeds confusion and hesitation.  Physical and political limits, which constrains action.  The opponent, an active obstacle with veto power that cannot be ignored.  Disconnects between ends and means, poor planning, no way forward. [165] 24
  • 25. Sun-Tzu, cheng ch’i and yin yang “A system is not supposed to behave outside the boundaries of the model… In sharp contrast to this stands the fact that organisms thrive on alternative behaviors – adaptation to and anticipation of changing environmental conditions is what they are all about.” [16] Sun Tzu:  “If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.”  “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”  “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”  “The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim.”  “All war is deception.”[31,36] Cheng is the orthodox, the expected. Ch’i is the unorthodox, the shocking. Use Cheng to set up Ch’i. When they suspect Ch’i use Cheng.[115,133] Yin yang, “is used to describe how polar opposites or seemingly contrary forces are interconnected and interdependent in the natural world, and how they give rise to each other in turn. Opposites thus only exist in relation to each other… Yin yang are not opposing forces (dualities), but complementary opposites, unseen (hidden, feminine) and seen (manifest, masculine), that interact within a greater whole, as part of a dynamic system.” Wikipedia 25
  • 26. Surprise = deception, ambiguity & stealth “Two additional concepts are particularly useful in generating combat power: ‘surprise’ and ‘boldness.’ [103] “There are three basic ways to go about achieving surprise. The first is through deception—to convince the enemy we are going to do something other than what we are really going to do in order to induce him to act in a manner prejudicial to his own interests. The intent is to give the enemy a clear picture of the situation, but the wrong picture.[103] The second way is through ambiguity—to act in such a way that the enemy does not know what to expect. Because he does not know what to expect, he must prepare for numerous possibilities and cannot prepare adequately for any one.[103] The third is through stealth— to deny the enemy any knowledge of impending action. The enemy is not deceived or confused as to our intentions but is completely ignorant of them. Of the three, deception generally offers the greatest effects but is most difficult to achieve.” [103] 26
  • 27. Tempo “Players who can set the pace of the match are the diamonds of the team.” [112] Since soccer is an “open system” one is never at ‘rest.’ You are continually moving from one space/time flow to another. “Merging onto a highway is a small scale example… you must usually bootstrap action while absorbing the current state of the situation.” “Once you are settled into a routine in a domain, and attuned to the local rhythms, your next challenge is to operate efficiently within it… which I’ll call going with the flow.” Pace-setting is the art of harmoniously driving the natural tempo of your environment away from its current state and towards your preferred state – slower or faster – in non-disruptive ways.” Dissonance: Disrupting the flow. To create dissonance in artful ways, you must develop a musicians aesthetic sensibilities. This is what will turn a potentially dangerous and stupid sort of behavior into a productive one.” [122] 27
  • 28. Psychological present & interval logic “Different schools of thought have called this ability "capacity of apprehension," "short-term memory," or "very short-term memory.“ [61] “The psychological present corresponds to the duration of a experiential process and not to a given period of duration. However, it has an upper limit which hardly exceeds 5 sec, and has an average value of 2 to 3 sec. Within these limits one can speak of the perception of duration, which thereby becomes a quantity whose beginning has not yet been stored in memory.”[2,61] “Popular decision-making models rely on what you might call point logic: the idea that a decision is a point, a fork in a temporal road… a better scheme, which organizes understanding of time around intervals rather than points, was worked out by… James Allen… This scheme called interval logic, is a way of thinking about time that can raise the sophistication of how you merge, go with the flow, set the pace, disrupt it, and put it all together in your moments of inspiration.”[122] 28
  • 29. Centers of gravity & critical vulnerabilities “Boyd blames Clausewitz for not seeing ‘that many non-cooperative, or conflicting, centers of gravity paralyze the adversary by denying him the opportunity to operate in a directed fashion.’” [115] “We ask ourselves: Which factors are critical to the enemy? Which can the enemy not do without? Which, if eliminated, will bend him most quickly to our will? These are centers of gravity.” [103] “We obviously stand a better chance of success by concentrating our strength against some relative enemy weakness. So we also ask ourselves: Where is the enemy vulnerable… Therefore, we should focus our efforts against a critical vulnerability, a vulnerability that, if exploited, will do the most significant damage to the enemy’s ability to resist us.”[103] “Center of gravity and critical vulnerability are complementary concepts.”[103] 29
  • 30. Command & control “We talked always about speed of ball, space and time” [175] “Any system comprising multiple, interacting elements, from societies to sports teams to any living organism, needs some form of command and control. Simply put, command and control in some form or another is essential to survival and success in any competitive or cooperative enterprise. Command and control is a fundamental requirement for life and growth, survival, and success for any system.”[106,177] “Our study of command and control theory starts with a simple model of the command and control process known as the OODA loop.”[106] 30
  • 31. Command & control “What obstacles must our command and control system overcome and what must it accomplish? First and foremost, the system must deal effectively with the twin problems of uncertainty and time.” [106] “Command and control is thus an interactive process involving all the parts of the system and working in all directions. The result is a mutually supporting system of give and take in which complementary commanding and controlling forces interact to ensure that the force as a whole can adapt continuously to changing requirements.”[106] “The defining problem of command and control that overwhelms all others is the need to deal with uncertainty. Were it not for uncertainty, command and control would be a simple matter of managing resources. In the words of Carl von Clausewitz, “War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.”” [106] 31
  • 32. Information flow in command & control “But the big change in Dutch Football happened when these ideas became words, when Cruyff and Michels started talking about space.” [175] “We initiate communications under two basic principles: supply-push and demand-pull. A supply-push system pushes information from the source to the user either as the information becomes available or according to a schedule. The advantages of supply-push are that the commander does not need to request the information and that the information generally arrives in a timely fashion. The challenge with a supply-push system is to be able to anticipate the commander’s information needs. The danger of information overload arises primarily from supply-push.” [106] “By contrast, a pure demand-pull system does not rely on the ability to anticipate information needs; it is inactive until a demand is made on it. In a pure demand-pull system, the user generates all information requirements. If the information is readily available the demand can be filled quickly and efficiently. However, if the information is not readily available, the demand typically triggers a “demand cascade,”… [106] 32
  • 33. Tension in command & control “Every disadvantage has its advantage.” [175] Intentional vs. emergent behavior, i.e. command vs. control;  “The commander commands by deciding what needs to be done and by directing or influencing the conduct of others. Control takes the form of feedback—the continuous flow of information about the unfolding situation returning to the commander—which allows the commander to adjust and modify command action as needed.” – [106] Task vs. system maintenance;  “Autopoiesis is a process whereby a system produces its own organization and maintains and constitutes itself in a space. e.g., a biological cell, living organism or a society… Allopoiesis the process whereby an organization produces something other than the organization itself.” - Web Dictionary of Cybernetics and Systems Entropy vs. complexity;  Physical systems move towards maximum entropy, i.e. no organization while organic systems move towards complexity through evolution to survive. We are organic systems made up of physical components. 33
  • 34. Distributed situational awareness “Emergent properties exist where the ‘characteristics of the whole are developed (emerge) from the interactions of their components in a non-apparent way…’ Emergent behaviour arises out of synergy, which is the product of interaction at a component level. Arguably, the goal of any command and control system is to maximise this synergistic effect” [162] “We assume that, in distributed team work, cognitive processes occur at the systems level rather that an individual level. [141] First, the ‘knowledge’ that underlies DSA is distributed across the system. Secondly, there is implicit communication of information rather than detailed exchange of mental models. [141] However, distributed SA requirements are not the same as shared SA requirements. Shared SA implies shared requirements and purposes, whereas distributed SA implies different, but potentially compatible, requirements and purposes. [141] Assuming that performance will be most effective when there is ‘good’ DSA throughout the system as a whole, it follows that the network links are more crucial than the nodes themselves in maintaining DSA.” [141] 34
  • 35. Summary “It is essential that early on young talented players come in contact with the importance of teamwork while playing a match, not through tactical instructions made by the trainer or coach… In our welfare state such a rock hard mental burden is not easy to deal with.” [112] 1. The dominant decisions/actions that players make in a game involves their interactions with teammates, opponents, referees, coaches, fans, parents, the ball, environmental and social factors. This is where cognition and the world interact. Theory meets reality. 2. These decision/actions form dynamic, transient iterative cycles that organically build through work and decay through entropy. When cycles build they become more complex and specific. When they decay they lose relevance, unity and purpose. 3. People are the most important component in decision/action cycles. They are the ends, ways and means. Whenever people interact problems are created. These problems take the form of friction. Cooperation aims to reduce friction; competition aims to amplify it. 4. Each player strives to survive on their own terms and sees the game from a unique perspective. However, every player is constrained by their interactions with others. This creates dynamic, transient, complex command and control systems and networks. Players must intuitively know when, who and where to lead and or follow. 5. Each player must be concerned with how others are seeing the game unfold. Every action should contribute to the teams harmony and cohesion by enabling interaction while attempting to reduce the opponents cohesion by morally, mentally, physically isolating it’s members. Other people, their perceptions and actions are the targets and tools for growth and survival and their influence on us cannot be summarily dismissed as an inconvenience. The battle on the field begins in the mind. 35
  • 36. Selected references 1. ACKOFF, R. & ADDISON, H. 1988, Management F-Laws, How Organizations Really Work (Axminster, U.K: Triarchy Press). 2. ALLPORT, D. 1968, Phenomenal Simultaneity and the Perceptual Moment Hypothesis (British Journal of Psychology, 59, 395-406). 3. ARTMAN, H. GARBIS, C. 1998, Situation Awareness as Distributed Cognition (Proceedings of ECCE’98, Limerick). 4. ARTMAN, H. 1999, Co-operation Within and Between Hierarchial Units in Dynamic Decision Making (Ergonomics, Vol. 42, No. 11, 1404-14-17). 5. ARTMAN, H. WAERN, Y. 1999, Distributed Cognition in an Emergency Co-ordination Center (Cognition, Technology & Work, 1: 237-246). 6. ARTMAN, H. 2000, Team Situation Assessment and Information Distribution (Ergonomics, Vol. 43, No. 8, 1111-1128). 7. BAARS, B. FRANKLIN, S. 2007, An architectural model of conscious brain functions: Global Workspace Theory and IDA (Elsevier, Neural Networks 20, 955-961). 8. BACKSTROM, L-A. et al. 1988, Organizing Your Youth Soccer Team (Champaign, Il: Leisure Press). 9. BAKER, J. HORTON, S. et al, 2003, Nurturing Sport Expertise: Factors Influencing the Development of Elite Athlete (Journal of Sports Science and Medicine 2003-2, 1-9). 10. BANDURA, A. 1978, The Self System in Reciprocal Determinism, (American Psychologist, Vol. 33, No. 4, 344-358). 11. BAREND, F. & VAN DORP, H. 1999, Ajax, Barcelona, Cruyff, The ABC of an Obstinate Maestro (London: Bloomsbury). 12. BARON, J. 2008, Thinking and Deciding, Fourth Edition (New York: Cambridge University Press). 13. BEA, R. 2011, Managing Rapidly Developing Crises: Real-Time Prevention of Failures (Deepwater Horizon Study Group, Working Paper). 14. BERRY, J. ABERNATHY, B. COTE, J. 2008, The Contribution of Structured Activity and Deliberate Play to the Development of Expert Perceptual and Decision Making Skill (Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology, 30, 685-708). 15. BERTALANFFY, L. 1969, General System Theory, Foundations, Development, Applications (New York: George Braziller, Inc). 36
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  • 41. Selected references 77. GREN, M. ZIERHOFER, W. 2003, The Unity of Difference, A Critical Appraisal of Niklas Luhmann’s Theory of Social Systems in the Context of Corporeality and Spatiality (Environment and Planning, Vol. 35, 615-630). 78. GROSSMAN, D. 2004, On Combat, The Psychology and Physiology of Deadly Conflict in War and in Peace (Warrior Science Publications). 79. HAMMOND, G. 2001, The Mind of War, John Boyd and American Security (Washington D.C: Smithsonian Instition Press). 80. HARRISON, W. 2010, Soccer Awareness, Developing the Thinking Player (Spring City, Pa: Reedswain). 81. HAYES, L. 1992, The Psychological Present (The Behavior Analyst, 1992, 15, 139-145). 82. HOVERSTADT, P. BOWLING, D. 2002, Modeling Organizations Using the Viable System Model (Royal Academy of Engineering, Systems Engineering Workshop). 83. HYBALLA, P. & TE POEL, H. 2011, Dutch Soccer Secrets (Maidenhead, England: Meyer & Meyer Sport). 84. HUGHES, C. 1973, Tactics and Teamwork (Yorkshire, England: EP Group). 85. JOHANSSON, F. 2004, The Medici Effect, Breakthrough Insights at the Intersection of Ideas, Concepts & Cultures (Boston, Ma: Harvard Business School Press). 86. JOURNAL OF SOCIALCYBERNETICS 2008, Vol. 6, No. 2. 87. KAHNEMAN, D. 2011, Thinking Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux). 88. KANDEL, E. 2006, In Search of Memory, The Emergence of a New Sciemce of Mind (New York: W.W. Norton & Co). 89. KLEIN, G. 1998, Sources of Power, How People Make Decisions (Cambridge, Ma: MIT Press). 90. KOCH, C. 2004, Selective Visual Attention and Computational Models, (http://www.klab.caltech.edu/cns186/PS/attention- koch.pdf). 91. KORMELINK, H. & SEEVERENS, T. 1997, The Coaching Philosophy of Louis van Gaal and the Ajax Coaches (Leeuwarden, Netherlands: Uitgeverij Eisma bv). 41
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  • 48. Thank you “I’ll live or die by my own ideas.” Johan Cruyff [11] Presentation created May, 2012 by Larry Paul, Prescott Arizona. All references are available as stated. All content is the responsibility of the author. For further information, questions or to inquire how to arrange a consultation on this topic you can contact me at larry4v4@hotmail.com, subject line; decision/action model. 48