Surprise Earthquakes and Policy - Mary Comerio
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2013 EERI Annual Meeting Session: Unusual Earthquakes and their Implications for Risk
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Surprise Earthquakes and Policy - Mary Comerio
- 1. Surprise Earthquakes and Policy Mary Comerio Professor in the Graduate School UC Berkeley
- 2. What is the Surprise? • In a place we did not expect? – Blind or unmapped fault or far from high risk zone e.g. Northridge, Christchurch, Tohoku • Bigger than we expected? – e.g. Indonesian Ocean, Tohoku, Maule • Just have not had one in a few hundred years? – e.g. L’Aquila, Haiti, Kobe
- 3. What Happens? • High Levels of Damage • Political recriminations • Blame the scientists • Funding Problems – for recovery and for future events • Slow Recovery
- 4. Coping with the Unexpected • If the hazard maps suggest higher potential in other locations, a community may be complacent with regard to preparedness, adoption of building codes, etc. meaning high damage from a moderate event • If an earthquake-prone community plans for the “expected” event and gets the “big one”, they may not be prepared to manage a catastrophe
- 5. Catastrophe Planning • Can we prepare for the big event? • O’Rourke calls surprise events: The New Normal • Recognize “Too Big To Fail” Infrastructure – Reassess Risk Related to Critical Infrastructure – Reassess & Identify Critical Infrastructure • Develop Local Coalitions to Protect Critical Infrastructure
- 6. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WATER SUPPLY • Southern California highly 70% Imported dependent on imported water Water: • Population: 22 Million • California Aqueduct • Los Angeles East Branch Most Vulnerable Aqueducts • Colorado River Aqueduct 30 % Ground Water Ref: T.D. O’Rourke 3 Crossings of the San Andreas: 6 month disruptions possible
- 7. WELLINGTON SEISMIC RISK • Urgent Need to Apply Christchurch Lessons – Harbor Facilities – Water Supply Wellington – Fire Hazards Fault – Major Highways – Electric Power System – Telecommunications Wellington – National Government Electric Power & Telecommunications What happens when Cables government is disrupted by an earthquake? Ref: T.D. O’Rourke
- 8. Civic Conversations About Risk • Leadership • Political Will • Multi-disciplinary • Inclusive of Business, Real Estate, Community and other stakeholders • Outside the comfort zone for engineers • How to “Protect Against What is Possible Beyond What is Probable”
- 9. National Conversation on Catastrophe • Who pays for recovery from big events? • Who defines recovery? • How do we rebuild smarter? • How do we deal with previous bad land use decisions? • How much can we centralize or localize policy?
- 10. HURRICANE SANDY INNUNDATION World Trade LaGuardia Center Airport Battery NYSE Brooklyn Battery Bridge T. D. O’Rourke Distinguished Lecture
- 12. Planned Future Development Zones Map: ABAG
- 13. % of Housing Units Usable and Unusable by Neighborhood San Andreas 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake Scenario SPUR 2011 Shelter in Place Report % unusable Usable Unusable
- 14. To Have a No Surprise Policy • Requires Dialogue • Requires Long Term Commitment • Requires Honest Performance Evaluations – Buildings – Infrastructure • Requires New Engineering Thinking on Integrated Community-wide Performance and New Recovery Technologies