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OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIESNaturalGasResearch
Programme
Oil and Money
14th November 2012
Howard V Rogers
Director of Natural Gas Research
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIESNaturalGasResearchProgramme
0
5
10
15
20
25 Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
$/mmbtu
Gas Prices 2007 – September 2012
Henry Hub
NBP
Europe Oil Indexed
Contract est.
Asian LNG
Spot
Average Japan LNG
Price
Brent
NaturalGasResearch
Programme
European Price Spreads
3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
€/MWh
German Contract NBP
Indicative
Uncertainty Range
Given Contract
Concessions
NaturalGasResearch
Programme
Japanese Power Company Financial FY 2011
4
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2012/06/a-realistic-perspective-on-japan%E2%80%99s-lng-demand-after-fukushima/
NaturalGasResearch
Programme Lord Browne’s (CEO BP) view of
gas price negotiations in 1994
“I cannot wait to move our gas sales contracts onto a gas
market index. At the moment what happens when we
want to develop a new gas field is this: our people sit
down with the buyers and have a leisurely series of
lunches that goes on for 2 years, at the end of that period
they come up with a price that any two moderately
intelligent people could agree on in 10 minutes. Then
they index it to something completely irrelevant. I can
guarantee that by the time the gas is flowing, the price we
get for it bears no relation to its value”
5
NaturalGasResearch
Programme
THANK YOU
6
howard.rogers@oxfordenergy.org

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