The document discusses sustainable mobility trends around the world and the need for a paradigm shift in transportation. It outlines strategies to avoid and shift trips to more efficient modes, improve technology and operations, but notes that not enough change is currently happening. It then provides examples of emerging trends that indicate movement towards more sustainable transportation systems, such as increased cycling and public transit ridership in some cities and new policies around congestion pricing, vehicle quotas, and low-emission zones.
9. Political Will – Community Support Technical Capacity to Plan, Implement, Improve Finance – Infrastructure and Operations Capturing the Trends
Keys for a paradigm shift
11. Proportion of licensed drivers by age (1998-2008)
Driving is not as cool as it used to be
Sivak and Schoettle, 2011 http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf
12. Passenger Car Travel (1990=100) Peak Travel?
Source: International Transport Forum 2012
20. Received wide implementation due to EU’s health-based air quality standard; Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs
Low emission zones - tipping in European Union
21. Caps the number of new vehicle registrations Formats
Beijing, Guiyang – Lottery
Singapore, Shanghai – Auction
Guangzhou and Tianjin – Auction and Lottery
Vehicle quota system – on the rise in China
Year
24. Metro rail - tipping in China London 1863; 189 cities - 10,500 kilometers - 112 million pax/day;
189 Cities
10,500 km
112 MM pax/day
168 Cities 4,424 km 31 MM pax/day
34. Today 2041
Automobility Sustainable Transport
Population (millions) 5.4 13.2 13.2
Trips (millions/yr) 5.6 39.75 39.75
Area (Sq. Km.) 1330 6484 3242
Emissions
(million Tons CO2/yr) 0.33 12.32 1.97
Traffic Fatalities
(per yr) 175 5,232 1,225
Ahmedabad – Future Scenarios
If all of this happens you end up with very
different cities: liveable, affordable, safe
35. And a very different planet
42,971
33,194
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Road Travel (Billion Veh-Km)
4 Degree Scenario
2 Degree Scenario
Source: IEA (2012) Energy Technology Perspectives
22,8% reduction in vehicle-km USD 20 Trillion Savings
36. With 1.3 million people not killed in traffic
3,783,009
5,098,418
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Worldwide annual traffic fatalities
2 Degree Scenario
4 Degree Scenario
Source: EMBARQ Analysis, Duduta and Hidalgo (2013)
1.315.409 lives/year saved due to the reduction in VKT