Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

Presentation for Transforming Transportation Inter-American Development Bank January 15, 2010 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, UC Berkeley Senior Research Engineer, Precourt energy Efficiency Center, Stanford * Opinions strictly those of Dr Schipper. Analysis work funded by the World Bank; Scenario work funded by the Institute for Transportation Policy Studies, Japan Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

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WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT The Latin American Share Is Small CO2 a Symptom of Latin America’s Transport Problems

CO2 Emissions: Is Latin America Different? Total, Per Capita, or Per GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],L. America Ic Different: High Emissions for Road Transport High Or Low CO2 Not The Issue: The Issue is Transport

Road Transport Emissions Relative to GDP? Falling Only Very Slowly in Latin America * 1990 figure includes many non-transport uses *

Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income Latin America is High for Its Income – the Link to CO2

Light Duty Vehicles Dominate Urban Streets and CO2 Emissions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hard to Address CO2 without Improving Urban Transport Including Problems of Transit and Land USe

CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – The Urban Share by Vehicle Type *Source: This study based on SMP/WBCSD and IEA/MOMO estimates by mode 2005

CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – Similar Patterns for Bogota, Santiago, S Paulo * *Source: MCMA Bottom-up Emissions Inventory S. Paulo has lower emissions from LDV because of alcohol, but still bad traffic

The Future for Transport and Emissions as LDV Dominance Grows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future Latin America Passenger Road Transport CO2 Driving Force is LDV Ownership and Use (Source WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project ) LDVs out of control

Bus Rapid Transit – Mexico’s 1 st Metrobus Line 260,000 people/day over 19km for US $80mn Lower emissions, CO2, reduced car traffic

Metrobus as a Case Study in Co-Benefits How to Save CO2 Without Even Trying ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component CO2 Savings (10% of Corridor Emissions) as Cobenefit were FREE Source Rogers 2006, 2009

Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2 Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits Source Schipper et al 2009; INE 2006

What Trends and Projections Say About The Future Treat C02 as a Transport Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050: The View from Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Purpose of Scenarios is to turn Weak Links into Opportunities, Not Reinforce Dangerous Trends

“ ASIF” Decomposition: Road Map For Scenario Building Lesson: Attack all Problems of Transport Not Just Technological Efficiency and Fuels Air pollution, health impacts Global CO2

Transport and CO2 in Latin America Two Approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050 Why Scenarios? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Results Show Outcomes, but No Guarantee of Results Co-Benefits, “Good Transport” not CO2 Key Drivers

Three Modes Dominate Emissions Cars, Flying, Trucking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Broad Brush Appropriate, but Details Lacking to Validate individual policies’ or technologies’ impacts

De-Carbing Transport in Latin America AS – Activity and Mode Shares ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

De-Carbing Transport in L. America IF – Fuel Intensity and Carbon Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Travel and Carbon Intensity Assumptions Pie in the Sky or Realistic

Scenarios Results for Latin America With A Real Effort, Latin America Will Have Lower Emissions Tomorrow

Key Messages: Saving CO2 in Latin America ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TECHNOLOGY LEAPFROGGING Gracias Lee Schipper – schipper@berkeley.edu

Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

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Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

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