This presentation is from the EPA's FP7 Environment National Information Day 2010. For further information, see http://www.fp7ireland.com/

1. FP7 – Environment – National Information Day, Dublin 6th October 2010 1
Earth Observation for Climate
Julian Wilson, Mark Dowell and Alan Belward
Nadine Gobron & Co-workers,
Peter Bergamaschi and Co-workers
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Ispra - Italy
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Modis Terra, RGB, Feb 28th 2009 (from R. Hoff)

2. Topics
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• European capacity for space-based observations of
climate study
• JRC Research on Essential Climate Variables
• CH4 emission inversions using SCIAMACHY
• 12 year time series of fAPAR derived from two
different sensors (MERIS & SeaWiFS)

3. Background
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• Space Council 5# and 6#
– Recognised space & Climate
Change as key priority
– Called on EC to define how
GMES services and European
space observation archives
can contribute most effectively
to the provision of data
• Competitiveness Council
December 2008 Cox and Stephenson 2007, Science Vol 317
– invited EC to foster the Observations
implementation of the GMES
climate change monitoring to
support the EU policies

4. European capacity for monitoring and assimilating
space based climate change observations
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• Study published as JRC
Science and Technical
Report
• Includes:
1. overview of European capacity
2. gap analysis
3. infrastructure issues
4. programmatic and governance
adequacy discussion
• Provides a European
perspective: participants
& contributors included
ESA, EUMETSAT, Met
Office, ECMWF, national
• agencies

5. ECV Gap analysis table
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6. Europe has the capacity to deliver FCDRs/ECVs
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• Proven capacity in space hardware
development / construction, algorithm
development and operational
generation of a subset of ECVs (gaps
do exist)
• World-leading capabilities in the
reanalysis of climate data and
assimilation of these and satellite
derived observations to provide high
quality analysis of climate and climate
change
• Relevant and capable institutions, with
complementary (though not always
synergistic) modes of operation

7. Current Capacity for FCDR/ECVs
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• 31 of the GCOS ECVs are measurable through space-based observations
• European capacity currently available or commissioned to measure 29 of
these ECVs
• Around 40% of these 29 are available through end-to-end production (e.g.
CCI, some EUMETSAT SAF and GMES Services) – but long-term
guarantees for operational production still have to be secured.
However:
• FDCR/ECV provisioning and reanalysis/assimilation in Europe is based
on research funding or performed in the margins of numerical weather
prediction (NWP)
• Because funding is not from an operational budget line Europe is unable
to make the move from research to operations
• We are having to de-scope planned activities, even where these are
essential and based on proven world-class science. This underplays
European scientific capacity, is a handicap to joint implementation and
makes it impossible for a climate service to deliver sustained information,
as required in any legal or operational setting

8. The way forward to operational systems
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• Joint Programme implementation is needed to fill gaps, avoid
overlap and promote synergy
• Domain-based approaches (atmosphere, ocean and land) should
be enhanced by an integrated approach using dedicated
assimilation schemes
• Increased computing power (computational/storage, bandwidth
and skilled personnel) is needed to ensure that coupled Earth
System models can be run, and that the spatial and temporal
resolution of these can be improved
• The improvements should build on established skills centres
nationally & at the European level.
Effective provisioning of data and information needs a stable
financial platform which guarantees sustained support for
– a) the space segment making measurements
– b) for the processing, product generation and their QA/QC
– c) for reanalysis and assimilation strategies to turn these data
into policy relevant information

9. What Next ?
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• Because activities are funded from many sources the
overall amount is difficult to establish. A dedicated
study is needed to identify the current levels of public
expenditure on climate information provision. From this
we can then estimate the budget needed to secure
operational climate information services in Europe.
• A gap analysis performed on the basis of sensor
capacity this may be VERY different to one based on
product availability, this will be a topic for future work
(maybe in the context of CEOS)
• There is a notable difference between the availability of
climate relevant products and generation of systematic
time-series of GCOS compatible ECVs, future initiatives
should acknowledge this and strive to achieve the
demanding GCOS standards

10. basic principles + objectives of inverse modelling
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monitoring of global and
regional CH4 cycle
● anthropogenic sources
● natural sources and their
feedback to climate change
top down estimates of emissions
monitoring of global and regional CH4 cycle
● anthropogenic sources
● natural sources and their feedback to climate
change
verification
Kyoto protocol

11. SCIAMACHY - Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter
for Atmospheric CartograpHY
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absorption spectra of solar radiation (near-IR)
-> high sensitivity also in PBL
SCIAMACHY
Absorption Kernel

12. XCH4 and emissions - seasonal variation
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SCIA
TM5
[Bergamaschi et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2009]

13. Asia - seasonal XCH4 and emissions
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SCIA
TM5
[Bergamaschi et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2009]

14. Global Changes in Biosphere Vegetation
Dynamics Using MERIS & SeaWiFS data
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• Operational MERIS Level2 products (i.e. MGVI) provide
FAPAR daily values at 1.2 km since April 2002.
• The retrieval algorithm is physically based using TOA
BRF in blue, red and NIR bands as inputs (Gobron et al.,
1999, 2001).
• Time-composite assigns one representative value over
10-days or monthly period (Pinty et al., 2002).
• Remapping code is used by averaging available FAPAR
values within 0.5º x 0.5º grid-cell to make global
products (Taberner et al., 2004).
• MERIS global products are processed at G-POD (ESRIN).
• FAPAR from SeaWiFS data from 09/1997 are produced at
JRC following same way (Gobron et al., 2001, Mélin et al., 2002).

15. 12 years of global monthly
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16. Global View
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Annual 2009 FAPAR anomalies at the global scale relative to the period 1998
to 2009 average: The strongest positive anomalies are found in Eastern Brazil
and South Africa whilst South America and East Africa exhibit the strongest
negative anomalies; the persistent droughts in Southern America, East Africa
and Australia are clearly manifest in poor vegetation growth and vigour.
2009 Anomaly
Gobron et. al, 2010, FAPAR in ‘State of the Climate in 2009’, M. Willett, L. V. Alexander, and P. W. Thorne, Eds., BAMS

17. Global View
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Time series of monthly anomalies averaged along lines of longitude: the
presence of a negative trend occurring over a latitude band 30º to 50º in
the Southern Hemisphere. This trend is strong enough to yield global
monthly negative anomalies for the most recent years.
+90
+45
Latitude
0
-45
-90
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Year
Gobron et. al, 2010, FAPAR in ‘State of the Climate in 2009’, M. Willett, L. V. Alexander, and P. W. Thorne, Eds., BAMS

18. Global View
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Monthly fAPAR spatially averaged
over the globe from 1998 to 2009.
0.015
0.010
0.005
Anomalies
0.000
-0.005
-0.010
-0.015
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Year
Gobron et. al, 2010, FAPAR in ‘State of the Climate in 2009’, M. Willett, L. V. Alexander, and P. W. Thorne, Eds., BAMS

19. FP7 – Environment – National Information Day, Dublin 6th October 2010 19
Thank You!