1. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork

4. Observations of Climate Change Global mean temperature (+0.74 ° 1990 - 2005 ) Global average sea level Northern hemisphere Snow cover

6. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Energy

7. Human Activities Ireland

8. Global GHG Emissions 2005 Ireland 66.8% (2008) EU-27 77.8% (2006)

10. Response Timeframes

11. Response Challenge 2 °C 3 °C 4 °C

13. Response Insufficient

14. EU Proposed Mitigation Path

15. Mitigation – Energy Dimension

16. Mitigation – Energy Opportunity

18. Economy, Energy & CO 2 53% CO 2 increase on 1990

22. National Forecasts (WP+)

23. National Forecasts (WP+)

27. TIMES model Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007 Brazil.

29. IT Reference Scenario

30. IT-NETS Scenario Total CO 2

31. IT-NETS Scenario NETS CO 2

32. IT-NETS Scenario Residential 13% RE 46% EL 24% EL

33. IT-NETS Scenario Transport 15% RE

34. IT-NETS Scenario Services 16% RE 9% RE

35. IT-NETS Scenario Elec Gen

36. IT-NETS Scenario Renewables >10-fold increase 40% Wind 32% Biom 25% Biof

37. Energy opportunities Ireland

39. Conclusions

40. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork