ETUI-ETUC conference 2016 Panel 5 Craig Holmes

1. SKILLS AND JOBS IN A DIGITAL
ECONOMY
Dr Craig Holmes
Research Fellow, Employment, Equity and Growth Programme, Institute for
New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School
June 27th 2016

2. Introduction
• Technology has driven significant changes in the occupational
structure of European labour markets over the past 30 years
– ‘Routinisation’ – jobs based around routine tasks replaced by ICT
– ‘Polarisation’ – routine jobs are typically middle‐skilled rather than
low‐skilled

3. Introduction
• New technologies will likely continue such trends around
traditional middle‐level routine jobs
• Implications for earnings inequality, mobility and skill policies
• Growing evidence that what we consider to be a job or type
of task substitutable with technology is changing
• This has lead to renewed concerns about technological
unemployment
• However, the content of jobs that remain is also a concern.

4. Skills forecasts
SOC group (2 digit)
Probability of
Computerisation
UK projected increase,
2012‐2022 (000s)
Corporate managers and directors 15.8% 493
Other managers and proprietors 18.4% 93
Science, research, engineering and technology professionals 11.3% 354
Health professionals 2.1% 332
Teaching and educational professionals 4.3% 152
Business, media and public service professionals 21.3% 337
Science, engineering and technology associate professionals 52.5% 47
Health and social care associate professionals 17.9% 102
Protective service occupations 25.9% ‐39
Culture, media and sports occupations 21.8% 88
Business and public service associate professionals 44.4% 384
Administrative occupations 80.4% ‐159
Secretarial and related occupations 78.4% ‐327
Skilled agricultural and related trades 70.8% ‐41
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades 48.1% ‐103
Skilled construction and building trades 52.7% 73
Textiles, printing and other skilled trades 57.5% ‐236
Caring personal service occupations 44.4% 594
Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations 49.7% 55
Sales occupations 85.5% ‐202
Customer service occupations 66.9% 138
Process, plant and machine operatives 84.4% ‐211
Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives 52.7% ‐3
Elementary trades and related occupations 69.5% ‐23
Elementary administration and service occupations 71.8% ‐44

5. The limits of increasing skills supply
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
High skill workers that could take on a more demanding role relative to
their current employment
2005 2010

6. Where might policy be best targeted help?
• ICT skills:
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
16‐24 45‐54
Percentage achieving high level of competence in problem‐
solving in ICT rich environments
Age group
Australia
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Poland
Spain
Sweden

7. Where might policy be best targeted help?
• Skills to help with greater career disruption
– General and transferable skills
– Non‐cognitive (or “soft” skills) e.g. coping, leadership, creativity and
social or emotional competencies.
• Early childhood interventions in non‐cognitive skills  higher
returns from later educational investments (Heckman, 2007)
• Remedial investment in non‐cognitive skills in young adults
does seem to be more effective than remedial investment in
cognitive skills
• However, issues over ability to teach

8. Digital Taylorism
• Job losses have been given a lot of attention
• However, it is possible we would instead see changes in the
nature of jobs, not their number, particularly in existing higher
skilled jobs
• Brown, Lauder and Ashton – “Digital Taylorism”, where
knowledge work  working knowledge

9. Polarisation and earnings
• Pay and occupational growth ‐ graduates vs. non‐graduates:

10. Changing job content
• Data: Workplace Employment Relations
Survey (WERS) from 1998, 2004 and 2011,
• Number of questions on influence and
discretion.
• Factor analysis gives us two scores for task
discretion and employee voice

11. Changing job content
SOC 1990 2004
1. Managers and Administrators 0.41
2. Professional Occupations 0.06
3. Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 0.13
4. Clerical and Secretarial Occupations ‐0.07
5. Craft and Related Occupations ‐0.03
6. Personal and Protective Service Occupations ‐0.07
7. Sales Occupations 0.11
8. Plant and Machine Operatives ‐0.20
9. Other Occupations ‐0.11
• Scores higher for better educated workers,
and in higher skill, non‐routine occupations.

12. Managerial changes
Most important change % Employees
Introduction or upgrading of new technology 23.4%
Introduction of performance related pay 2.4%
Changes in working time arrangements 7.4%
Changes in the organisation of work 19.3%
Changes in work techniques or procedure 11.7%
Introduction of initiatives to involve employees 8.5%
Introduction of technologically new or improved product 8.0%
• Matched manager‐employee responses on
recent changes in workplace:

13. Changing job content
‐0,2
‐0,15
‐0,1
‐0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
Introduction or upgrading
of new technology
Introduction of
performance related pay
Changes in working time
arrangements
Changes in the organisation
of work
Changes in work techniques
or procedure
Introduction of initiatives
to involve employees
Introduction of
technologically new or
improved product
Average change in job discretion

14. Changing job content
• New technology has raised discretion while
changes in work organisation has reduced
discretion specifically in managerial
occupations
• New products reduce influence specifically in
elementary occupations
• New techniques have a negative effect across
all occupations

15. Changing job content
‐0,15
‐0,1
‐0,05
0
0,05
0,1
Introduction or upgrading
of new technology
Introduction of
performance related pay
Changes in working time
arrangements
Changes in the
organisation of work
Changes in work
techniques or procedure
Introduction of initiatives
to involve employees
Introduction of
technologically new or
improved product
Average change in employee voice