Elia Stakeholders' Day 2015

WINTER 2015-16 & 2016-17
David Zenner
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20152

AGENDA
1. Context
2. Hypotheses, parameters & output
3. Conclusion Winter plan 2015-2016
4. Impact Return D3 & T2

Scope and timeline
The strategic reserves volume is being assessed every year in November.
The assessment is sent to the energy minister to assist him/her in taking a decision
on the volume to be contracted for the coming year(s).
Hypotheses are frozen
Input from SPF/FOD
15 OCT. 15 NOV. 15 DEC. 15 JAN.
Elia gives the ministry
advice on volume (based
on a probabilistic
approach)
The ministry advises the
energy minister on the
volume
Decision on the volume
by the energy minister

Volume assessment criteria are defined by law
The strategic reserves volume is being assessed for Belgium, in order to meet the
following criteria (required by law):
Average LOLE* < 3 hours
LOLE P95* < 20 hours
LOLE = Loss of Load Expectation; expected total duration in hours of unserved energy over the winter.
Average LOLE = average value over the simulated future states.
LOLE P95 = percentile 0.95 (1 out of 20 probability) for simulated future states.

Volume assessment process is iterative
An iterative process is used to find the required additional volume, for the system to
be adequate:
Input data Market model Analysis
Adequacy criteria
met?
NO
Increase the
volume of
reserves

Feedback consultation
• Data Quality
‒ More detailed data for surrounding countries (bilateral contacts RTE / Tennet / ENTSO-E)
‒ More time series for climate years (from 13 last year to 40)
‒ Improved load data and data on market response
• Methodology
‒ Flow Based included in the volume assessment – import capacity is defined by the flow
based domain
‒ Market response taken into account in the model (cf. Pöyry study)
• Transparency
‒ More information on input data and hypotheses in the report
‒ Consultation on volumes

2. HYPOTHESES, PARAMETERS &
OUTPUT

Input hypotheses and variables for the
simulations
Available sources
Generation
• Nuclear and fossil
production
• Renewables, CHP
• Pump/turbine/Hydro
Operational reserves
Interconnections
Variables
Climatological variables
• Solar production
• Wind production
• Hydro
• Temperature
(demand)
Outage of units
Needs
Economical activity (demand)
• Working day/holiday
• Day/night

Not only Belgium is modelled
Data come from different sources
• Belgium and neighboring countries are modelled in
detail. Exchanges between countries are determined
by the market.
• Strong cooperation with other TSOs is required to
assess shortage risk in other countries (can have an
impact on Belgian adequacy).
• Data integrated from different sources:
- ENTSO-E data (SOAF) for ES, IT, GB, NO, SE, CZ, PL
- Pentalateral Energy Forum (PLEF) for AT, CH, FR, DE, NL
and LU
- Bilateral contacts with RTE, Tennet, 50Hertz to get latest
hypotheses on generation capacity and load forecast
- Alignment with DG Energy for BE
- External forecasts (demand growth for Belgium)

Forecast of installed renewable capacity for
winter 2015-2016
12
Wind capacity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
15-16 16-17 17-18
MW
Solar Wind on Wind off
Solar and wind capacity forecast BE
Solar capacity
Run of River hydro
Hydro storage
Pump Storage
(Coo, Plate Taille)
Historical production
Reservoir and capacity
Unit with reservoir. Efficiency of
pumping/turbining cycle.
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015 Wind on = wind onshore; Wind off = wind offshore

Relation between French scarcity and Belgian
scarcity will be taken into account
13
Maximum import for BE = 4.500 MW. This import depends on other countries’ net balance towards
CWE. If FR and BE need capacity, the BE imports will be reduced.
Example of a reference domain for winter (taking into account BE and FR balances)
BE can import 4.500 MW
if FR can export
BE can import < 4.500 MW
because FR needs imports
for its own adequacy
Balance of FR in MW
Balance of BE
in MW
q

Wind and solar generation forecast
Based on historical load factors and expected installed capacities
14
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
15-16 16-17 17-18
MW
Solar Wind on Wind off
Hourly historical
data for wind and
solar, per unit
Installed
capacities
Time series wind
and solar
Wind on = wind onshore; Wind off = wind offshoreELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015

Demand forecast
Based on historical temperature and thermosensitivity of demand
15
Normalized time
series for demand
Thermosensitivity
Demand time
series
Historical
temperature data
Normalized demand = average
demand on a given day, removing
temperature effects. Working
days/weekends are included.
Increase of demand due to
temperature.
Temperature difference between
historical and normalised value.

Climate effects have impact on renewable
production and demand
16
• Climate uncertainty modelled using 13 historical years. Correlation is kept between wind, solar and demand.
• For neighboring countries that have a lot of hydro, 3 historical years are used: wet, dry and normal conditions.
13
series
3
series
For the new calculations this year, 40 time series will be used for all climate effects taken into account
X

Thermal and nuclear units are modelled
individually
With an outage rate based on historical analysis
17
Normalised time
serie for load
Thermosensitivity
• Each type of unit has an outage rate based on a historical analysis (2006-2014)
• The outage rate expresses the probability of the unit to be out a given day
• The model generates for each unit an availability curve for each future state
Total availability of the thermal park for a given country
Example of an hourly time series
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Putting together the variables allows us to
simulate a large amount of future states
A number of future states are taken into account, using different profiles of
renewable production, demand and outages of units.
260* future states
Correlated renewable
production & demand Unit outages
Convergence of results is checked
* 260 is the amount of future states modeled last year. This number
depends on the convergence of the adequacy parameters.

Output includes dispatch of all units, as well
as market exchanges between countries
We only look at periods of scarcity when generation does not meet the demand.
Energy Not Served

3. CONCLUSION WINTER PLAN
2015-2016

Assumptions Winter plan 2015-2016
before decision 17/11 D3T2
Combination of a number of measures taken by the government authorities, market parties and
system operators (even in the case without Doel 3 and Tihange 2):
• Extension of the service life of Doel 1 and Doel 2 (discussions ongoing) – 866 MW
• Return to the market of around 900 MW of centralised generation and cogeneration
• Contracting of the strategic reserve offers for 804 MW (+ 750 MW contracted in 2014)
• Strategic Generation Reserves: 446 MW + 750 MW
• Strategic Demand Reserves: 358 MW
• Review of expected peak consumption of around 600 MW
• Reinforce the Northern border with a fourth PST in Zandvliet
• Timetable for all maintenance work to prevent downtime during winter as much as possible
As a result of these actions, security of supply for 2015-2016
expected to comply with legal requirements.

• Impact return Doel 3 & Tihange 2:
‒ has definitely a positive impact on the adequacy situation for upcoming winters 2015-2016
and 2016-2017
‒ has been taken into consideration – as one of the sensitivity analysis – in the report Elia
submitted to the minister of energy related to the volume to be contracted for winter 2016-
2017
• Nevertheless even with the return of Doel 3 & Tihange 2:
‒ Import remains necessary for system adequacy
‒ Flexible gas plant necessary for system control and integration of renewables
‒ mothballing of gas plant may cause new needs for strategic reserves
Impact Return Doel 3 & Tihange 2

ELIA INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
Mark Berger

AGENDA
1. Key drivers of the ongoing Energy Transition
2. Expected evolution of renewables
3. The investment program 2015 – 2019 to support the transition
4. Top Projects Elia
5. Raising public acceptance as a guideline

1. KEY DRIVERS OF THE ONGOING
ENERGY TRANSITION

Key drivers of the Ongoing Energy Transition
Societal-Political
Market-Technologies
More renewables and
decentralized production
New actors ‘prosumers’
+ ‘off-grid solutions’
New infrastructure needed
Fragmentation of the
energy landscape
Evolution of the
business models
Acceptance of grid projects
No Nuclear Power Plants
after 2025
New technologies
(HVDC) + storage
28

2. EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
RENEWABLES
( MW installed capacity)

Expected evolution of renewables
( MW installed capacity)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2,772 4,255 5,194 5,860 6,232 6,540 6,947 7,471 8,095 9,851 10,550
Forecasts in line with ENTSO-E scenario EU2020
Installed capacity/year (MW):
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Biomass
Solar
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Hydro

3. THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM
2015 – 2019 TO SUPPORT THE
TRANSITION

The investment program
2015 – 2019 to support the transition
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
114
130
150
254
203
Future
* Belgian part of the project
• €2.3 billion total investments
• Timeline & budget per project:
 BRABO (€180 million / 2015-2022)
 ALEGRO (€250 million / 2016-2019/2020)*
 STEVIN (€340 million / 2014-2019)
 NEMO (€360 million / 2015-2019)*
Investments are stepped up for the execution of the large infrastructure projects

Grid Expansion Projects Belgium
19%
3%
29%
Elia
€ 254.2 M
7%
42%
26%
2%
24%
Elia
€ 366.9 M
13%
35%
Investments 2014 Prospects 2015
Replacements
Internal consumption
Interconnections
Integrating renewables
Non electrical investments
In Belgium, Elia is investing circa 3.7 billion EUR over the next decade.
Investments are maily driven by replacements and the internal consumption.

Top Elia Projects
1
North Sea Initiative
Plug at sea for offshore wind
2
Stevin
Integrate offshore wind & benefit
from cross-border trading with
UK on land
3
Nemo Link
Subsea HVDC-interconnection
with UK
5
ALEGrO
Increase cross-border capacity with
Germany with the first HVDC on land
6
UK
4
Brabo
Reinforce the Port of Antwerp &
increase cross-border capacity with NL
6
Boucle de l’Est
Reinforce the grid to integrate
renewable production
All over the country
Build connections with industrials to support economic growth.

Nemo Link
Nemo link
36

Nemo Link
Nemo link
37
➔ HVDC connection between Herdersbrug (BE) and
Richborough (UK)
➔ Increasing security of supply, more market
efﬁciency and integration of renewables
➔ 140 km of undersea & underground cables
➔ Electricity transport capacity of
approx. 1000 MW
➔ Timing objective: 2019

Stevin

Stevin
➔ Grid reinforcement project
380 kV in Belgium’s coastal
region
➔ Essential for further economic
development, for integration and
transportation of offshore wind
energy and exchanging energy with
UK
➔ 37 km lines & 10 km cables
➔ Timing objective: end 2017

Brabo
Phase 2
Rechteroever: Zandvliet - Lillo
Liefkenshoek
 End horizon 2018 - 2019
Phase 3
Linkeroever: Liefkenshoek –
Mercator  End horizon 2023
Phase 1
Zandvliet - Doel and Zandvliet 2nd Phase
Shifter  End 2016

Brabo
Phase 2
Rechteroever: Zandvliet - Lillo
Liefkenshoek
 End horizon 2018 - 2019
Phase 3
Linkeroever: Liefkenshoek –
Mercator  End horizon 2023
Phase 1
Zandvliet - Doel and Zandvliet 2nd Phase
Shifter  End 2016
➔ Grid reinforcement project in and for the
Port of Antwerp area
➔ Essential for further economic growth &
connection of new production plants
➔ Increases cross border exchange
possibilities with the Netherlands

ALEGrO

ALEGrO
➔ First HVDC-interconnection between
BE (Elia) and GE (Amprion)
➔ European priority project
➔ 100 km underground cable between
Lixhe (BE) and Oberzier (GE)
➔ Transmission capacity of approx. 1000 MW
➔ Timing objective : horizon 2019-2020

5. RAISINGPUBLICACCEPTANCE
ASAGUIDELINE

Raising public acceptance as a guideline
Bundling of infrastructures
Undergrounding
Ecological corridor
management
Communication and collaboration
with stakeholders1
2
4
5
Use of existing
powerlines3
The Elia desires to create a better understanding of grid development needs through:
Elia strives to achieve an overall net positive impact on people, nature and landscape

CWE FLOW-BASED MARKET COUPLING
Frank Vandenberghe
(Introduction to the panel discussion)

Developing the EU market is about …
48
Integration of
the European
Electricity Market
Flow based market coupling
NWE and CEE regions
Cooperation with Power Exchanges
Developing
methods, tools
and market
processes
Capacity allocation and
congestion management
Developing network codes
Market Products
and Platforms
Developing new market products
Auction platforms for ancillary
services
11/26/2015

Developing the EU market
49 11/26/2015
2010
CWE
2014
NWE
2015
MRC
Multi-Regional Coupling
Central-West Europe:
Belgium, France, Germany,
Netherlands, Luxembourg
North-West Europe:
NWE + UK, Scandinavia
SWE
South-West Europe:
Spain, Portugal
CSE
Central-South Europe:
Italy
2015: Flow-based

Flow-based: how are exchange capacities currently determined?
Exchange capacities can then be calculated
(taking into account the N-1 principle and available remedial actions)
With the recent flow-based methodology,
the available capacity for each grid element can
be defined (= no longer per border)
24 common grid models each dayEvery TSO builds its best forecasts for Day+2:
• Topology
• Consumption
• Distribution of generation
• Solar and wind generation
26/11/201550

Day-Ahead Market Coupling
51 26/11/2015
Daily process to optimise the market results for the next day
By TSOs
via Coreso
Capacities
By market parties
(via exchanges)
Order books
By exchanges
Optimisation by Euphemia at
international level
Algorithm
per hub / per hour
Net Positions
per hub / per hour
Prices

Flow-based market coupling & impact on energy prices
52 11/26/2015
(based on 19164 representative hours between 01/01/2013 and 19/05/2015)
Price decrease of € 3.1 in Belgium
100% optimum ( = purely hypothetical) Price with flow-based Price with previous mechanism

Elia Stakeholders' Day 2015

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

Similaire à Elia Stakeholders' Day 2015

Similaire à Elia Stakeholders' Day 2015 (20)

Plus de Elia

Plus de Elia (13)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Elia Stakeholders' Day 2015