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Evidence-Based Risk
Management



Wade Baker, Verizon RISK Team
My favorite (professional) topics



• Security incidents (as in studying them – not experiencing them)
• Information sharing (specifically incident-related info)
• Data analysis (how else will we learn?)
• Risk management (but not the ‘yellow x red = orange’ kind)
Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) series



                              An ongoing study into the
                                world of cybercrime that
                          analyzes forensic evidence to
                          uncover how sensitive data is
                              stolen from organizations,
                             who’s doing it, why they’re
                           doing it, and, of course, what
                            might be done to prevent it.
2012 DBIR Contributors
Methodology: Data Collection and Analysis


• DBIR participants use the
 Verizon Enterprise Risk and
 Incident Sharing (VERIS)
 framework to collect and
 share data.


• Enables case data to be
 shared anonymously to RISK
 Team for analysis


VERIS is a (open and free) set of metrics designed to provide a common
language for describing security incidents (or threats) in a structured and
repeatable manner.


VERIS: https://verisframework.wiki.zoho.com/
Sharing incident information



       TACTICAL                STRATEGIC

  What point solutions      How do I measure &
should I implement now?    manage risk over time?




        ✔*                         X
Unpacking the 2012 DBIR
An overview of our results and analysis
Sample characteristics



• 855 incidents of confirmed data compromise
• 174 million stolen data records
• All varieties of data included (CC#s, PII, IP, etc)
• Victims of all industries, sizes, geographic regions
• Cases worked by Verizon, investigated by law enforcement, or reported
 to (Irish) CERT
Threat Agents
Threat Agents: Larger Orgs
Threat Agents: IP & classified data

                   92%




                              49%




                                         2%

                  External   Internal   Partner
Threat Agents: External
Threat Actions
Threat Actions: Larger Orgs
Threat Actions: IP & classified data



       Malware                   38%


       Hacking                           51%


         Social                        48%


        Misuse                                 57%


       Physical   0%


          Error    2%


  Environmental   0%
Top Threat Actions
Top Threat Actions: Larger Orgs
Top Threat Action Types: IP & classified data
Most Compromised Assets
Asset Ownership, Hosting, and Management
Compromised Data
Compromised Data




                   Smaller Orgs
Attack Difficulty
Attack Targeting
The 3-Day Workweek
Timespan of events
Timespan of events: Larger Orgs
Timespan: IP & classified data




                     Minutes Hours Days Weeks Months Years
     POE to Comp      10%    65% 10% 10%       3%     3%
     Comp to Disc      0%    18% 21% 13%       7%    41%
      Disc to Cont     0%    0%   16% 13%     71%     0%
Breach Discovery
Breach Discovery
Recommendations: Larger Orgs
Evidence-Base Risk Management
What is it, and what does it look like?
What is EBRM?




   EBRM aims to apply the best available
 evidence gained from empirical research to
   measure and manage information risk.
Measuring and managing information risk



To properly manage risk,
  we must measure it.

To properly measure risk,
we must understand our
  information assets, the
   threats that can harm
them, the impact of such
 events, and the controls
    that offer protection.
A threat event that is measurable (and thus
manageable) identifies the following 4 A s:

Agent: Whose actions affected the asset
Action: What actions affected the asset
Asset: Which assets were affected
Attribute: How the asset was affected
evidence?
Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) series




                         = evidence
                         for measuring and managing risk
Diagnose Ailments
✔Policy
✔Policy
              ✔People
✔People
              ✔Process
✔Process
              ✔Technology
✔Technology




              ✔Policy
              ✔People
              ✔Process
              ✔Technology




               ✔ Treatment strategy
Evidence-Based Risk Management
What are the benefits of EBRM?



• Metrics
  –  Builds outcome-based metrics around security processes and failures in order to
     get a better read on the security pulse of the organization.
• Remediation
  –  Strengthen security posture by identifying gaps, pinpointing the most critical
     remediation strategies, and focusing longer-term strategic planning.
• Efficiency
  –  Enable better and more justified decision-making, improve resource allocation,
     reduce unproductive security spending, and generally achieve “more bang for
     the buck.”
• Communication
  –  Increase information flows across organizational and functional boundaries.
     Create and communicate ongoing performance measures to key stakeholders.
DBIR: www.verizon.com/enterprise/databreach
VERIS: https://verisframework.wiki.zoho.com/
Blog: http://www.verizon.com/enterprise/securityblog
Email: dbir@verizon.com

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Evidence-Based Risk Management