Dr Camille Mellin presents the topic ‘Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation: A confederacy of ecological scales’. For a short synopsis of her seminar read on. Coral reefs are currently undergoing an unprecedented and world-wide decline. Rapid climate change, increased ocean temperature and changes to ocean currents are expected to reduce dispersal distances and the spatial scale of population connectivity. Connectivity may also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effect of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Species distribution models can provide an essential tool in support of management and coral reef conservation, provided they successfully incorporate the spatial scales of connectivity, and how they are likely to change in the near future.

1. Environment Institute
Science Seminar Series 2009
Predicting coral reef biodiversity
patterns for conservation: A confederacy
of ecological scales
Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin

2. Photo: CSIRO
Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for
conservation:
A confederacy of ecological scales
camille.mellin@adelaide.edu.au
Camille MELLIN
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille.mellin

3. Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

4. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Coral Reefs
• The most biologically diverse of all
marine ecosystems
• A total of 1766 fish species and 727
coral species recorded to date
• Many are still to be described
Ecosystem goods and services
• Food
• Tourism
Nearly 500 million people depend on
• Biomedical compounds
coral reefs,against storms and waves million of
• Protection with probably 30
• Cultural heritage
the poorest people relying entirely on
reefs for food

5. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Anthropogenic pressure on coral reefs
Overfishing Invasive species
and starfish
outbreaks
Deforestation, soil erosion,
sediment & nutrient loading
Destructive fishing practices

6. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Climate change: a complex threat acting at multiple levels
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

7. Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

8. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Plankton availability
Ocean currents
Temperature
Predation
Temporal scales Spatial scales
Early recruitment
Adult population size
50 km
Robertson & Kaufman (1998) Aus J Ecol Cowen et al. (2006) Science

9. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Availability of suitable
habitat
Chemical or visual cues
Resident
communities

10. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
e.g., Fecundity
Longevity

11. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change

12. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Steneck et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

13. Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

14. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Steinberg (2007) in Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment

15. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Simulated advection of passive particles around Lizard Island, Great Barrier
Reef
a) normal conditions b) with a 2° deviation of the SEC
Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

16. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
source: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA)

17. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
El Niño
Tropical regions
with significantly
warmer or cooler
maximum sea La Niña
surface
temperature (SST)
0.3° contour interval
Annual SST
difference since
Significant difference in means (warmer or cooler)
1950
Data from British Atmospheric Data Centre

18. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Changes in sea surface temperature & impact on ecological successions
Trophic level
Ecological succession
Pe lag ic Larval Duratio n (PLD) = f (te mpe rature )
MATCH-MISMATCH theory, David Cushing (1975;

19. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on dispersal
kernels:
PLD – 20%
PLD – 10 %
PLD
Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

20. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on inter-reef
connectivity:
Thalassoma bifasciatum (Labridae)
PLD
PLD – 20%
High reef density
Low reef density
Munday et al (2009) Coral Reefs

21. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Climate change and ocean acidification
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

22. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Climate change and ocean acidification
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

23. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Climate change and ocean acidification
De’Ath et al. (2009) Science

24. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Future of coral reefs: phase shift and ecosystem collapse?
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

25. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Future of coral reefs: phase shift and ecosystem collapse?
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

26. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Future of coral reefs: what does this all mean?
Critically endangered species
Critically endangered + Endangered
species
Critically endangered + Endangered
+ Vulnerable species
Critically endangered + Endangered +
Vulnerable + Near threatened species
Carpenter et al. (2008) Science

27. Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

28. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
The positive effect of marine protected areas
Mumby et al. (2006) Science
McClanahan et al. (2007) Ecol Appl

29. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Designing marine protected areas: which criteria to account for?
Fish
Corals
Species Richness
(SR)
Snails
Lobsters
Concordance in SR
Threats to
coral reefs
Concordance in rarity
and multitaxon centers
of endemism
Roberts et al. (2002) Science

30. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Species distribution models in coral reefs
Pittman et al. (2007) Ecol Model
Mellin et al. (2007) Coral Reefs

31. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Species distribution models in coral reefs
Fish species richness Fish abundance
Mellin et al. (in press) Global Ecology and Biogeography

32. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Species distribution models in coral reefs
Mellin et al. (submitted to Ecology)

33. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Species distribution models in coral reefs: limits
 Spatially explicit COMMUNITY-based models
 Static SDM ignore species interactions, population and metapopulation dynamics
 How to model the interactions between 1000s of species in coral reefs:
using functional groups?
 Models are rarely validated
 Statistical validation only
 Need for independent validation data sets

34. Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

35. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Predicting the future : model projections based on clim change scenarios
ate
Need for similar approach in marine ecosystems, considering that:
• Bathymetry is not a sufficient
covariate – circulation patterns
must be considered
• 3D oceanographic models
must be calibrated through
initial conditions and conditions
at domain boundaries

36. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Test the temporal stability of species-environment relationships
Test the predictability of distribution models over time
Araujo & Rahbeck (2006) Science

37. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Experimentation: an insight into the future?
Bellwood et al. (2006) Current Biology

38. 1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives
3. Predicted impact of climate change
Take-home message
• Coral reefs are impacted by climate change in a number of ways
• Management can mitigate climate change impact on coral reefs
• Species distribution models can be useful to conservation, provided that they
successfully incorporate the scales of population connectivity

39. Thanks for your attention!
Further information
camille.mellin@adelaide.edu.au
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille.
mellin

40. Environment Institute
Science Seminar Series 2009
Final Seminar Sem 1: 29 June – 12pm
Policy responses to a drying climate may
save Adelaide’s kelp forests
Presented by: Associate Professor Sean Connell