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The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
Special report by epic research 28 january 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
Global markets at a glance
Asian equity markets stabilized on Tuesday following two
straight sessions of sharp losses but caution prevailed
ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and turmoil in emerging markets. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.25 percent
or 5.16 points at 2,038.46. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was
down 0.10 percent or 22.82 points at 21,953.28. Japan's
Nikkei gained 0.22 percent or 33.01 points at 15,038.74.
Singapore's Straits Times was flat at 3,039.74 while South
Korea's Seoul Composite was up 0.15 percent or 2.89
points at 1,913.23.
World Indices
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed down by
0.8 percent at 1,290.62 points, its lowest level in more
than a month. The euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50
index fell 0.5 percent to 3,014.62 points.
Top Gainers
Wall Street Update
U.S. stocks extended recent losses on Monday, with the
S&P 500 falling for a third straight session as concern grew
about the Federal Reserve's plans for withdrawing stimulus. The losses, which picked up late in the session after
the S&P 500 briefly traded in positive territory, followed a
steep selloff late last week tied to emerging market concerns. The slide gave the S&P 500 its worst weekly percentage loss since June 2012
Previous day Roundup
It was a dismal trading day at the Dalal Street as market
was butchered on weak global cues, ahead of RBI policy
scheduled on January 28. The Sensex lost 426.11 points or
2 percent at 20707.45, and the Nifty fell 130.90 points or
2.09 percent to end at 6135.85. About 632 shares advanced, 1933 shares declined, and 193 shares were unchanged.
Index stats
The Market was very down in yesterday session where
Bank and Bank Nifty both closed almost flat (down-3.97%
and down-4.02% . respectively). Among the sartorial indices the sectors which were down are;], Capital Good
[down-259.87 pts], Consumer Durables [down-106.17 pts],
.Healthcare [down-91.65 pts], FMCG [down-11.82pts]
AUTO [down –397.76 pts], PSU [down154.71 –pts], TECK
[down-60.69pts], Oil & Gas [down--205.20pts], Metals
[down–365.89pts], , IT [down –60.82pts Realty [down –
89.11.ts], Power [down –47.15 pts].
YOUR MINTVISORY
Index
Value
% Change
15837.88
-0.28
S&P 500
1781.56
-0.49
NASDAQ
EURO STO
FTSE 100
4083.61
3,014.62
6,550.66
-1.00
-0.45
-1.70
Nikkei 225
Hong Kong
15,020.52
21,997.83
+0.10
+0.10
DJl
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
580.15
14.35
2.54
1424.95
13.10
0.93
CIPLA
418.00
3.60
0.87
ITC
324.70
0.45
0.14
1700.00
0.25
0.01
CMP
Change
% Chg
40.25
139.80
308.00
348.35
353.70
-6.45
-13.25
-28.35
-22.05
-22.30
-13.81
-8.66
-8.43
-5.95
-5.93
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ALPHAGEO
79.80
3.95
4.95
FIEMIND
356.15
8.15
2.29
HINDCOMPOS
420
5.00
1.19
TORNTPHARM
537.15
12.85
2.39
82.80
4.10
4.95
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
972.00
103.00
-25.00
-2.90
-2.57
-2.82
CMP
Change
% Chg
6135.85
20707.45
-130.90
-426.11
-2.09
-2.02
HINDUNILVR
HCLTECH
ULTRACEMCO
Top Losers
Company
JPASSOCIAT
DLF
RANBAXY
TATAMOTORS
TATASTEEL
Stocks at 52 Week’s high
Symbol
SAKSOFT
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol
BEL
EXIDEIND
Indian Indices
Company
NIFTY
SENSEX
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2. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. GLENMARK
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. HINDUSTAN UNILEVER
GLENMARK FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build
up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sustains
above 550 levels. We advise buying above 550 levels with
strict stop loss 540 for the targets of 560-575 levels.
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER is looking strong on charts. We advice buying around 575-570 levels with strict stop loss of
560 for the targets of 580-585 levels.
2. ADANI POWER
MACRO NEWS
RBI Credit Policy is going to be announced today at 11
am.
Hindustan Unilever’s net profit increased to Rs 1,062.3
cr. from Rs 871.4 cr. Revenue grew 9.4% to Rs 7,038 cr. in
the quarter ended Sept 2013 from Rs 6,433.7 cr. in a year
ago period, which was slightly lower-than-forecast.
Allahabad Bank reported 4.8% growth in net profit and
0.6% growth in net interest income YoY, but asset quality
worsened in the quarter ended Dec 2013. Net profit of
the bank increased to Rs 326 cr. from Rs 311 cr. and net
interest income rose to Rs 1,337.6 cr. from Rs 1,330.2 cr.
The EGoM on telecom met yesterday n approved a spectrum usage charge (SUC) of 5% of the annual gross revenue for all new spectrum acquired in the auction.
Ajanta Pharma posted 91.64% rise in its net profit at Rs
62.42cr. for third quarter ended Dec. 31, 2013, for robust
sales in the domestic and emerging markets.
SBI board to mull raising Rs 10,000 crore via qualified
institutional placement (QIP) on January 31.
Cadila Healthcare decides to exit business in Japan.
ADANI POWER FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short
build up has been seen, we may see more downside, if it
sustains below 34 levels. We advise selling around 33.5034.00 levels with strict stop loss 35 for the targets of 32.5031.50 levels.
YOUR MINTVISORY
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3. DAILY REPORT
FUTURE & OPTION
28st JANUARY. 2014
STOCKS IN NEWS
Oil ministry seeks cabinet nod for open licensing policy with Nelp.
Results Today: Maruti Suzuki , NTPC , Jindal Steel &
Power , JSW Steel , Sesa Sterlite , Ipca Labs , Jyothy
Labs, OnMobile Global , Pidilite Industries , PTC India
Financial, Shalimar Paints , Binani Industries , FACT ,
GIC Housing, Tinplate Company, Titagarh Wagon,
Transformers Rectifiers, Transport Corporation of India,
Walchandnagar
,
XPRO
India
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol
Option
Type
Strike
Price
LTP
Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
NIFTY
PE
6,200
72.90
6,78,349 39,33,000
NIFTY
PE
6,100
29.20
5,96,476 45,37,.100
BANKNIFTY
PE
SBIN
PE
1,600
TCS
PE
INFY
10,500 129.00
Open
Interest
49,809
2,16,550
23.3
6,455
3,13,875
2,200
6.05
3,917
6,05,500
PE
3,700
12.1
3,610
5,75,625
AXISBANK
PE
1,150
15.4
3,475
2,87,500
SBIN
PE
1,550
7.85
3,367
1,53,125
NIFTY FUTURE
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol
Option
Type
Strike
Price
LTP
Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY
CE
6,300
28
5,72,490 47,28,550
NIFTY
CE
6,400
6.4
4,05,884 55,83,600
BANKNIFTY
CE
11,000
26.95
48,174
4,45,725
BANKNIFTY
CE
11,800
66
28,287
1,50,575
SBIN
CE
1,650
10
7,629
8,89,250
RELIANCE
CE
860
4.55
5,409
6,71,250
TCS
CE
2,300
5.8
5,100
Nifty Future closed in the red in the last trading session.
We advise selling below 6140 levels with strict stop loss
5,42,375 of 6180 for the targets of 6100-6060 levels.
AXISBANK
CE
1,200
6.2
4,129
5,72,750
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in
No. of Amount in
No. of
Contracts
Crores Contracts
Crores Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
173581
5314.91
191559
5882.74
525546
15940.11
-567.83
INDEX OPTIONS
623947
18780.73
568301
17132.39
1434882
43613.74
1648.34
STOCK FUTURES
384996
11878.95
402508
12458.13
1126542
34054.91
-579.19
STOCK OPTIONS
53496
1582.85
53644
1597.13
108856
3438.79
-14.28
TOTAL
448.05
INDICES
NIFTY
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
6093.25
6114.55
6151.55
6172.85
6209.85
NIFTYJUNIOR
11719.48
11815.26
11990.33
12086.11
12261.18
BANK NIFTY
10339.79
10440.09
10621.2
10721.49
10902.59
YOUR MINTVISORY
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4. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
COMMODITY MCX
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
The restrictions on gold imports will be reviewed by March
end, Finance Minister said yesterday. MCX Gold futures
stayed supported after recent gains though some moderation emerged following a mini spell of profit selling in European markets today. The COMEX Gold futures came off
highs near $1280 per ounce amid a hectic bout of volatility
and currently trade at $1263.90, down 40 cents per ounce.
MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 29699, up Rs 180 per 10
grams on the day or 0.61%. Prices had hit highs above Rs
29800 in intraday moves.
Investors are likely to eye the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations
for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75
billion in the bank's stimulus program. The meeting due on
Wednesday will mark the last for outgoing Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke, as current Vice Chair Janet Yellen prepares
to take over.
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 45520 TGTS 45720/46020 SL 45180
SELL SILVER BELOW 44900 TGTS 44700/44400 SL 45260
GOLD
Natural-gas futures jumped to their highest level in last four
years amid worries that extremely cold weather in the US
would persist. The traders sidelined the havoc in broad financial markets following emerging market growth worries
and helped the Natural gas futures surge to $5.40 per million British thermal units. The counter is quoting at $5.036,
up 0.76% on the day now. MCX Natural gas is trading at Rs
332.50, up more than 4%.
The commodity has been on a tear in last few weeks. Prices
jumped last week as a major winter storm hit much of the
Northeastern US. Falling US natural gas supplies also
boosted the prices. The US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that natural-gas supplies dropped
107 billion cubic feet for the week ended Jan. 17.
In a move that may be construed as an attempt to appease
the domestic steel industry ahead of the general elections,
the finance ministry on Monday imposed a five per cent
export duty on iron ore pellets. Considering the increase in
the average speed of packing machines.
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 29850 TGTS 29930/30030 SL 29730
SELL GOLD BELOW 29650 TGTS 29570/29470 SL 29760
YOUR MINTVISORY
Oil prices edged higher in Asian trade today as a surprisingly
sharp decline in US distillate supplies last week buoyed
forecasts of stronger demand in the world's top crude consumer. New York's main contract WTI for March delivery,
was up 19 cents at $97.51 in mid-morning trade while Brent
North Sea crude for March rose 11 cents at $107.69.
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5. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
NCDEX
RECOMMENDATIONS
CASTORSEED
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
% Change
Castor Seed
4146
1.74
Chana
3010
-0.17
Coriander
8302
2.87
Cotton Seed Oilcake
1550
0.32
12442.5
-0.94
Maize– Feed/
Industrial Grade
1197
-0.42
Mustard seed
3380
-0.91
Soy Bean
3877
0.38
Turmeric
7016
0.75
Jeera
BUY CASTORSEED FEB ABOVE 4190 TGTS 4220,4270 SL
4140
SELL CASTORSEED FEB BELOW 4125 TGTS 4095,4045 SL
4175
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA FEB ABOVE 8430 TGTS 8460,8510 SL 8380
SELL DHANIYA FEB BELOW 8270 TGTS 8240,8190 SL 8320
YOUR MINTVISORY
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Turmeric futures bounced back from the prior two session's
losses on bargain buying amid strong fundamentals. The
NCDEX turmeric April delivery ended the day at Rs 7016, up
Rs 52 or 0.75% from last close. Good buying emerged in
Turmeric. Stockiest are currently active in Turmeric markets. Nizamabad has seen some new crop arrivals and such
arrivals are expected to increase in coming days though the
difference between spot and futures is leading to a hectic
activity. Spot prices are lingering at Rs 6126, up Rs 40 per
quintal on the day. The market sources suggested that the
total production of turmeric in the current year is estimated
at 52 lakh bags against 70 lakh bags that were estimated in
the last year.
Jeera futures fell further on higher crop estimations. The
NCDEX Jeera March delivery ended the day at Rs 12,442,
down Rs 117.50 or 0.94%. As per the latest data release by
Gujarat Agriculture Board , the total sowing acreage of
Jeera in the state has been increased by 1.05 lakh hectares
from the last year to reach 4.54 lakh hectares due to favorable weather conditions and strong export demand in local
mandies. Traders estimated that the total production of the
Jeera is likely to increase by 10 lakh bags to reach around 46
lakh bags in the current year
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6. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
CURRENCY
RBI Reference Rate
Currency
Rate Currency
Rupee- $
62.7141 Yen-100
Euro
85.8228 GBP
JPY/INR
Rate
61.2100
103.5040
CURRENCY ROUNDUP
The Indian rupee fell for a third consecutive session on
Monday to its lowest against the dollar since mid-November
as a broad emerging market sell-off raised worries foreign
investors would pare down their domestic stock and bond
holdings The Reserve Bank of India's policy review on Tuesday also kept investors cautious. Although the central bank
is expected to keep interest rates on hold, the tone of the
statement is being closely eyed, raising expectations of
tighter monetary policy this year. Although rate hikes would
normally benefit currencies by increasing domestic yields,
investors also worry that confidence in an already slowing
economy would be further hit.
BUY JPY/INR ABOVE 61.72 TGTS 61.86,62.00 SL 61.44.
SELL JPY/INR BELOW 61.03 TGTS 60.90,60.74 SL 61.32.
USD/INR
Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth $31.45 million on Friday, but are net buyers of $532 million so far this
year, still just a fraction of the more than $20 billion inflows
seen in 2013. "Until the policy review decision,63.25 should
hold the top for the pair.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 63.10/11 per dollar
compared with 62.66/67 on Friday, after falling to 63.32
earlier, its lowest since Nov. 14.The rupee was seen further
pressured by month-end import payment related purchases
of dollars by oil firms. Unlike on Friday, when the central
bank was suspected to have stepped in to sell dollars, no
consensus emerged as to whether the RBI had intervened
on Monday.
BUY USD/INR ABOVE 63.35 TGTS 63.47, 63.61 SL 63.06.
SELL USD/INR BELOW 62.81 TGTS 62.68, 62.53 SL
62.10.
YOUR MINTVISORY
Almost all emerging Asian currencies tumbled on Monday
on the back of the global sell-off of riskier assets. Indian
shares slumped more than 2 percent, their biggest daily fall
since Sept. 3, tracking a regional selloff as the U.S. Federal
Reserve is poised to continue tapering stimulus and tighter
credit conditions in China are raising fears of a sharper economic slowdown. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards,
the one-month contract was at 63.72 while the threemonth was at 64.62.
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7. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency
Pairs
Contract
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
27/01/14
MCX GOLD
FEB.
BUY
29650
29730-29830
29550
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
27/01/14
MCX GOLD
FEB.
SELL
29400
29320-29220
29500
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
MCX SILVER
MAR.
BUY
45000
45200-45500
44750
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
27/01/14
MCX SILVER
MAR.
SELL
44500
44300-44000
45750
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
NCDEX CASTOR SEED
FEB.
BUY
4130
4160-4210
4080
BOOKED PROFIT
27/01/14
NCDEX CASTOR SEED
FEB.
SELL
4030
4000-3950
4080
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
FEB.
BUY
8590
8620-8670
8540
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
FEB
SELL
8480
8450-8400
8530
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
27/01/14
USD/INR
JAN.
SELL
62.20
62.05-61.91
62.49
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
USD/INR
JAN.
BUY
62.83
62.95-63.07
62.54
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
27/01/14
EUR/INR
JAN.
SELL
85.20
85.06-84.89
85.50
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
EUR/INR
JAN.
BUY
85.92
86.07-86.22
85.62
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
Date
Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
27/01/14
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
6270-6250
6210-6160
6310
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
PNB
FUTURE
SELL
585-590
570-560
605
NOT EXECUTED
27/01/14
UPL
FUTURE
SELL
200
196-192
204
BOOKED PROFIT
27/01/14
RANBAXY
CAHS
SELL
332
322-312
342
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
24/01/14
AXIS BANK
FUTURE
BUY
1200
1250-1280
1160
SL TRIGGERED
21/01/14
RELIANCE MEDIAWORK
CASH
BUY
55
59-62
51
SL TRIGGERED
20/01/14
BJAAJ AUTO
FUTURE
BUY
1950
1900-2040
1890
CALL OPEN
17/01/14
GITANJALI
CASH
BUY
70
75-85
65
SL TRIGGERED
YOUR MINTVISORY
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8. DAILY REPORT
28st JANUARY. 2014
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
CONSENSUS FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, JAN. 27
10 am
New home sales
Dec.
469,000
464,000
TUESDAY, JAN. 28
8:30 am
Durable good orders
Dec.
1.5%
3.4%
10 am
Consumer confidence index
Jan.
77.9
78.1
N/A
N/A
3.0%
4.1%
WEDNESDAY, JAN,29
NONE SCHEDULED
THURSDAY, JAN. 30
8:30 am
Weekly jobless claims
1/25
8:30 am
GDP
1Q
FRIDAY ,JAN 31
8:30 am
Employment cost index
1Q
0.5%
0.4%
8:30 am
Personal income
Dec.
0.2%
0.2%
8:30 am
Consumer spending
Dec.
0.2%
0.5%
9:45 am
Chicago PMI
Jan.
61.2
60.8
9:55 am
UMich consumer sentiment index
Jan.
83.0
82.5
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