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LATIN AMERICA 
AND THE 
CARIBBEAN 
ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT APPENDIX 
NOVEMBER 2014
MARKET OVERVIEW 
Mobile operators’ voice and data revenue split, 
Q4 2012 to Q2 2014, Latin America 
Key figures: Latin America and the Caribbean 
100 
50 
0 
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 Operator 4 Operator 5 
1 The World Bank, Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class, 2012 
2 FocusEconomics, September 2014 
3 Ericsson ConsumerLab Infocom 2014. Based on 10,839 interviews conducted in Brazil, Mexico, 
Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador and Bolivia, 15–69 years-old, SEC A to D in urban zones 
2 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 
Data Voice 
Source: Ericsson analysis based on operators’ quarterly results 
M 
Mobile subscriptions (million) 
Smartphone subscriptions (million) 
Total mobile traffic (PB/month) 
2014 
740 
270 
300 
2020 
900 
595 
1,800 
CAGR 2014–2020 
3% 
15% 
35% 
Macro-economic context 
The Latin America and Caribbean region consists of 
46 countries and around 620 million people. The region is 
diverse not only in terms of socioeconomic development 
and culture, but also in regards to Information and 
Communications Technology (ICT) maturity levels. 
GDP per capita varies greatly, along with consumer 
profiles. This has a direct impact on the adoption 
speed of ICT services and products. 
In the previous decade Latin America saw a 50 percent 
growth in its middle class.1 More recently the economic 
growth slowed down in the region. With a 1.3 percent 
increase in GDP in 2014, Latin America is predicted to fall 
below the world average for the first time since 2009.2 
The telecom industry remains an important driver for 
economic growth. In recent years, governments have 
supported plans for national broadband, operators have 
invested to evolve network technology, and there has 
been an increasing demand for services across the region. 
These factors are the main growth drivers for the sector 
and promote regional economic development. 
Market penetration and growth 
By Q3 2014, there were 720 million mobile subscriptions 
in the region, resulting in 115 percent mobile penetration. 
Only a small number of countries fall below 
100 percent penetration. 
Brazil and Mexico represent over 50 percent of the total 
mobile subscriptions in the region. 80 percent of all 
mobile subscriptions are concentrated within 7 countries. 
Given the economic conditions, it is easy to understand 
that Latin America is a price-sensitive market dominated 
by prepaid plans. Despite this, postpaid subscriptions are 
on the rise due to the efforts of operators to increase their 
base of more profitable customers. Voice is still the biggest 
share of operators’ incomes, but data is rapidly gaining 
relevance as a revenue stream, as shown in the chart 
above. Faster adoption of smart devices and diversified 
mobile content and services will boost data consumption 
and its proportion of average revenue per user (ARPU). 
Consumer trends3 
A growing middle class, the availability of cheaper devices 
and the need to be connected everywhere will continue 
to boost the penetration and usage of telecommunication 
devices and services in the region. 
60 percent of households own at least 2 of the following 
internet-capable devices: personal computer, mobile 
phone and tablet. More than 60 percent access the 
internet on these devices daily and around 30 percent 
are connected for more than 3 hours per day.
Device owners’ internet usage per device, Latin America Preferred choice between SMS/calls and OTT 
38% 32% 
62% 68% 
47% 
on apps such as YouTube, and 30 percent watch long 
videos using services such as Netflix, on their mobile 
phones at least weekly. The use of laptops, smartphones 
and tablets for watching video content is rapidly 
increasing. Access to video content is among the top 
three reasons that consumers in the region acquire an 
internet connection. 
Mobile financial services are also on the rise, and 
at least 14 percent of mobile users access them 
weekly. They include mobile payment, mobile money 
and mobile banking. A recent study on this topic in 
Latin America showed that these services bring benefits 
both for the unbanked and banked populations. 
The M2M market 
Although Machine-to-Machine (M2M) is not considered 
within the figures of mobile subscriptions in this report, 
it is a growing segment worth mentioning. It is estimated 
that there are 20 million cellular M2M connections in 
Latin America in 2014, a figure that is set to grow around 
3 times during the forecast period. 
The traffic associated with M2M represents only a small 
share of the total traffic, and will remain so in the coming 
years, despite its strong growth. The rapid increase of 
M2M subscriptions is driven by the popularity of the 
Internet of Things, M2M solutions in different industries 
and the proliferation of consumer electronics and 
connected vehicles. 
PC 
Tablet 
Mobile 
phone 
Digital activities are becoming part of the user’s daily 
routine. 74 percent of Latin Americans browse the internet, 
61 percent use social networks and 30 percent watch video 
clips at least daily, using any internet-enabled device. 
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 3 
www 
New mobile services and applications emerge every 
day, changing the way users communicate and how they 
behave. 37 percent of mobile phone users in the region 
download apps at least weekly. Usage of over-the-top 
(OTT) services, that is, services which are used over the 
internet, is high with 57 percent of mobile phone users 
taking advantage of them. 
Among those who use the internet on their mobile phones, 
55 percent prefer to send Instant Messages (IM) over SMS. 
OTT calls are also gaining popularity, and 17 percent prefer 
this option to the traditional call service. 
Video as a digital activity is also gaining popularity 
among Latin Americans. 26 percent of mobile phone 
users make video calls, 41 percent watch video clips 
on mobile phones (daily share) 
Daily usage of services on mobile phones 
Short videos 
Brazil Mexico Argentina Latin America 
Browsing 
Social networks 
52% 52% 
49% 51% 
29% 33% 
61% 48% 
62% 46% 
23% 22% 
+ 3 hours/day 
IM 
OTT calls 
53% 
21% 27% 
11% 
79% 89% 73% 
Calls Messaging 
Brazil Mexico Argentina 
1–3 hours/day 
Daily 
SMS 
Traditional calls 
Weekly 
Monthly or less often 
33% 
20% 
30% 
34% 
31% 
22% 
9% 
13% 
8% 
12% 
18% 
11% 
8% 
11% 
9% 
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) 
Base: Internet user and device owners 
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) 
Base: Mobile phone users 
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) 
Base: Internet users with mobile phones
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS 
Latin America represents around 10 percent of global 
mobile subscriptions. The region is expected to reach 
740 million subscriptions at the end of 2014. Between 
2014 and 2020 it is forecast that Latin America’s mobile 
subscriptions will grow at a compound annual growth 
rate (CAGR) of 3 percent, amounting to 900 million 
subscriptions by the end of 2020. 
Technology evolution 
The majority (60 percent) of Latin America still uses 
GSM/EDGE, commonly known as 2G technology. 
This is due to the large proportion of lower income 
consumers using handsets that only work with that 
technology. GSM will continue to be the most popular 
mobile technology in the region up until 2016. 
Between 2016 and 2020, WCDMA/HSPA will take over 
as the leading radio access technology in the region. It 
will account for about 65 percent of total subscriptions, 
up from almost 40 percent today. The increasing number 
of connected consumers and the need for speed are 
contributing to the fast growth of 3G. 
LTE spectrum auctions and launches will continue 
to be a top priority for operators and regulators. 
Mobile subscriptions, Latin America, 
split per technology (million) 
LTE WCDMA/HSPA GSM/EDGE Mobile PC/router/tablet Smartphone Feature/basic phone 
CDMA 
TD-SCDMA Other technology 
1,000 
900 
800 
700 
600 
500 
400 
300 
200 
100 
>250 MILLION 
LTE subscriptions by 
the end of 2020 
Mobile subscriptions, Latin America, 
split per device (million) 
1,000 
900 
800 
700 
600 
500 
400 
300 
200 
100 
4 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 
0 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
0 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
These will accelerate the uptake of this technology. 
It is estimated that LTE will represent approximately 
30 percent of total mobile subscriptions by 2020, 
with more than 250 million subscriptions. 
Smartphone subscriptions 
Smartphones will play a key role in 3G and 4G adoption. 
Lower prices, together with the increasing amount of 
online services, apps and virtual content, will boost 
smartphone adoption from over 35 percent of total 
subscriptions in 2014 to more than 65 percent by 2020. 
It is estimated that the number of smartphone 
subscriptions in the region will surpass those for 
feature/basic phones by 2016. This is not unexpected 
considering that 34 percent of people are planning 
to buy, renew or upgrade their smartphones in the 
next 12 months, according to a study from Ericsson 
ConsumerLab in 2014. 
The increase of cheaper smartphones will provide 
more consumers with the opportunity to access online 
services, since personal computers and tablets are more 
expensive. In some markets, like Mexico, the smartphone 
is the primary device for accessing the internet.
MOBILE TRAFFIC 
Mobile traffic, Latin America (monthly PetaBytes) 
Voice Data 
1,800 
1,600 
1,400 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
400 
Mobile data traffic, Latin America, 
split per device (monthly PetaBytes) 
Mobile PC/router/tablet Smartphone 
1,800 
1,600 
1,400 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 5 
With the rise of apps and smartphone usage, mobile 
data traffic will continue to grow steadily in the region. 
Between 2014 and 2020, mobile data traffic will increase, 
reaching 1.8 ExaBytes (EB), 6 times more than 2014. 
Meanwhile, annual growth for voice traffic will only be 
around three percent during the same time period. 
Data traffic in the mobile segment is boosted mainly 
by two components: 
1. The rapid uptake of smart devices 
In developing markets, price is the primary barrier in 
the adoption of smart devices. With the availability of 
lower priced models, it is expected that these devices 
will rapidly achieve a critical mass. In 2016, 50 percent 
of mobile subscriptions will be smartphones. 
The rise of smartphone subscriptions is the primary 
driver for mobile data growth. In 2012 the total 
mobile traffic generated by mobile phones (mainly 
smartphones) exceeded that of mobile PCs, tablets 
and routers. By 2020, it is estimated that smartphone 
data traffic will represent around 75 percent of the 
total mobile data traffic in the region. This will result 
in more than 2.5 GB of data traffic per month per 
active smartphone on average. 
2. The explosion of video and apps in the cloud 
Video is the largest contributor to data traffic volumes 
for any device. Globally, it represents approximately 
40 percent of mobile data traffic. Social networking 
and web browsing represent shares of around 
15 and 10 percent, respectively. 
An Ericsson study4 conducted in Brazil, Mexico 
and Chile indicated that on average 86 percent of 
internet users use mobile devices such as laptops, 
tablets and smartphones to consume video on a 
weekly basis. 59 percent do so outside the home. 
Smartphone users with a data subscription who watch 
video content at least on a weekly basis have increased 
their total viewing time by more than 30 percent since 
2012. They watch 8 hours of video content per week 
on their smartphones, compared to 6 hours in 2012. 
600 
200 
0 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
6x 
growth in mobile data traffic 
between 2014 and 2020 
4 Ericsson ConsumerLab TV and Video Study 2014. Based on 3,000 interviews with people with a 
broadband internet connection that watch TV/video at least on a weekly basis, 15—69 years old
Population and 
app coverage 
Population coverage 
Population coverage of an area is defined as the proportion 
of the population with sufficient signal to connect to a 
mobile network. This concept impacts the perception 
of service quality and as such will grow in importance 
since connectivity is expected everywhere, at any time. 
Back in 1997, the first GSM network in the region was 
rolled out in Chile. Over the years the technology spread 
across Latin America. Today, GSM/EDGE has almost 
90 percent population coverage in the region and it 
will continue to grow. 
Nine years later, in 2006, Chile was again the 
pioneer, implementing the first 3G network in the 
region. WCDMA/HSPA has been deployed faster 
than GSM and it already covers approximately 
65 percent of Latin America´s population. It is expected 
to increase to around 90 percent by the end of 2020. 
Population coverage, Latin America 
~90% 
WCDMA/HSPA 
~65% 
~90% >90% 
GSM/EDGE 
2013 2020 2013 2020 2013 2020 
>65% 
LTE population coverage 
by 2020 in Latin America 
>65% 
LTE 
20% 
In recent years, LTE has been on the agenda of 
governments and operators, along with continued 3G 
investments. Since the introduction of LTE in Puerto Rico 
in 2011, more than 40 networks have been launched in 
18 countries in the region. 
At the moment, LTE has a 20 percent population 
coverage and it is forecast to increase to cover more 
than 65 percent by 2020. This makes it the fastest 
growing mobile technology in history. However, spectrum 
liberalization and availability of a wide range of LTE 
devices and business models to monetize investments 
are the major challenges to the successful uptake of 
4G in the region. 
Currently in Latin America most LTE operations use 
high spectrum bands (2600 MHz, 1700/2100 MHz). 
New LTE deployments in low spectrum bands (700 MHz) 
have started to emerge in the region. These are equally 
important to provide less expensive and more efficient 
mobile broadband coverage in rural or low-income areas, 
as well as dense urban areas and indoor environments. 
App coverage 
This term refers to the area within which there is a high 
probability of experiencing sufficient network performance 
to run a given app, e.g. video streaming or web browsing. 
App coverage is an integrated view of mobile broadband 
network coverage, capacity and quality. 
The increasing usage of apps as an integral part of 
people’s lives constitutes a challenge for networks. Low 
satisfaction with network performance among smartphone 
users is related to time-to-content. Slow webpage and 
content download speeds are the most common issues 
reported by users in Latin America, followed by apps 
crashing when in use and problems with streaming video. 
At least 67 percent of smartphone users have faced these 
problems, according to an Ericsson ConsumerLab study 
conducted in the region during 2013. 
6 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014
4,000 1,200 
2,500 
2,000 600 
1,000 
0 0 
Network performance satisfaction levels in Latin America 
show there is room for improvement. In the biggest mobile 
subscription markets (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina), on 
average only 34 percent of mobile users are satisfied with 
their mobile service, while 34 percent would recommend 
their current operator. On the other hand, 20 percent would 
consider churning their operator in the next 12 months.5 
Ericsson has analyzed the network performance 
measurements from Speedtest.net to calculate the 
median downlink and uplink data throughput rate. A 
user has a 50 percent probability of getting the median 
rate or higher throughout the network coverage area. 
In Latin America, median values of downlink and uplink 
throughput have grown over the last year. Colombia and 
Mexico have shown steady growth with a median rate 
of over 3 Mbps in Q2 2014 for downlink and 1 Mbps for 
uplink, as shown in the chart above. 
This can be explained by network optimization and the 
recent deployment of LTE networks. Faster speeds are 
expected as LTE is rolled out in the region. This will reduce 
the gap with developed countries around the world where 
median speeds can reach between 5 to 8 Mbps for 
downlink throughput. Parallel network optimizations are 
needed while LTE grows in coverage and penetration. 
Today, users expect permanent mobile connectivity, with 
a signal that enables a good experience according to 
their unique requirements. Unquestionably, the boom of 
devices, applications, digital content and OTT services 
places higher demands on networks in terms of capacity, 
speed and coverage. Meeting these new demands will only 
be possible through superior performing networks. 
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 7 
Median (50 percent probability) 
downlink throughput (Kbps) 
Median (50 percent probability) 
uplink throughput (Kbps) 
Source: Analysis performed by Ericsson, based on 
Ookla’s NetMetrics data from Speedtest.net, 2014 
Source: Analysis performed by Ericsson, based on 
Ookla’s NetMetrics data from Speedtest.net, 2014 
500 
200 
3,000 
800 
1,500 
400 
3,500 
1,000 
Q2 
2012 
Q2 
2012 
Q2 
2013 
Q2 
2013 
Q4 
2012 
Q4 
2012 
Q4 
2013 
Q4 
2013 
Q3 
2012 
Q3 
2012 
Q3 
2013 
Q3 
2013 
Q1 
2013 
Q1 
2013 
Q1 
2014 
Q1 
2014 
Q2 
2014 
Q2 
2014 
Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia 
Satisfying new market demands 
Perception of network performance is the factor with 
the highest impact on loyalty for smartphone users. 
In Latin America it has twice the impact compared 
to customer support, 4 times the impact of loyalty 
rewards and 60 percent more impact than value for 
money, according to an Ericsson ConsumerLab study 
conducted in 2013. 
Satisfaction and recommendation levels (percentage) 
Net promoter score Satisfaction 
0 10 20 30 40 50 
Mexico 
Brazil 
Argentina 
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) 
Base: Mobile phone users 
5 Satisfaction level: Top 2 in a scale of 11 points. Recommendation level: Top 2 in a scale of 11 points.
EAB-14:061137 Uen, Revision A 
© Ericsson AB 2014 
Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society – a world leader in 
communications technology and services. Our long-term relationships with every 
major telecom operator in the world allow people, businesses and societies to fulfill 
their potential and create a more sustainable future. 
Our services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the 
cloud – are enabling the telecom industry and other sectors to do better business, 
increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. 
With more than 110,000 professionals and customers in 180 countries, we combine 
global scale with technology and services leadership. We support networks that 
connect more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Forty percent of the world’s mobile traffic 
is carried over Ericsson networks. And our investments in research and development 
ensure that our solutions – and our customers – stay in front. 
Founded in 1876, Ericsson has its headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden. Net sales in 
2013 were SEK 227.4 billion (USD 34.9 billion). Ericsson is listed on NASDAQ OMX 
stock exchange in Stockholm and the NASDAQ in New York. 
The contents of this document are based on a number of 
theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall 
not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, 
undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore 
Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document 
at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences 
of such changes. 
The content of this document is subject to revision without 
notice due to continued progress in methodology, design and 
manufacturing. Ericsson shall have no liability for any error or 
damage of any kind resulting from the use of this document. 
Ericsson 
SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden 
Telephone +46 10 719 00 00 
www.ericsson.com

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Ericsson Mobility Report November 2014: Regional Appendices - Latin America and the Caribbean

  • 1. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT APPENDIX NOVEMBER 2014
  • 2. MARKET OVERVIEW Mobile operators’ voice and data revenue split, Q4 2012 to Q2 2014, Latin America Key figures: Latin America and the Caribbean 100 50 0 Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 Operator 4 Operator 5 1 The World Bank, Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class, 2012 2 FocusEconomics, September 2014 3 Ericsson ConsumerLab Infocom 2014. Based on 10,839 interviews conducted in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador and Bolivia, 15–69 years-old, SEC A to D in urban zones 2 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 Data Voice Source: Ericsson analysis based on operators’ quarterly results M Mobile subscriptions (million) Smartphone subscriptions (million) Total mobile traffic (PB/month) 2014 740 270 300 2020 900 595 1,800 CAGR 2014–2020 3% 15% 35% Macro-economic context The Latin America and Caribbean region consists of 46 countries and around 620 million people. The region is diverse not only in terms of socioeconomic development and culture, but also in regards to Information and Communications Technology (ICT) maturity levels. GDP per capita varies greatly, along with consumer profiles. This has a direct impact on the adoption speed of ICT services and products. In the previous decade Latin America saw a 50 percent growth in its middle class.1 More recently the economic growth slowed down in the region. With a 1.3 percent increase in GDP in 2014, Latin America is predicted to fall below the world average for the first time since 2009.2 The telecom industry remains an important driver for economic growth. In recent years, governments have supported plans for national broadband, operators have invested to evolve network technology, and there has been an increasing demand for services across the region. These factors are the main growth drivers for the sector and promote regional economic development. Market penetration and growth By Q3 2014, there were 720 million mobile subscriptions in the region, resulting in 115 percent mobile penetration. Only a small number of countries fall below 100 percent penetration. Brazil and Mexico represent over 50 percent of the total mobile subscriptions in the region. 80 percent of all mobile subscriptions are concentrated within 7 countries. Given the economic conditions, it is easy to understand that Latin America is a price-sensitive market dominated by prepaid plans. Despite this, postpaid subscriptions are on the rise due to the efforts of operators to increase their base of more profitable customers. Voice is still the biggest share of operators’ incomes, but data is rapidly gaining relevance as a revenue stream, as shown in the chart above. Faster adoption of smart devices and diversified mobile content and services will boost data consumption and its proportion of average revenue per user (ARPU). Consumer trends3 A growing middle class, the availability of cheaper devices and the need to be connected everywhere will continue to boost the penetration and usage of telecommunication devices and services in the region. 60 percent of households own at least 2 of the following internet-capable devices: personal computer, mobile phone and tablet. More than 60 percent access the internet on these devices daily and around 30 percent are connected for more than 3 hours per day.
  • 3. Device owners’ internet usage per device, Latin America Preferred choice between SMS/calls and OTT 38% 32% 62% 68% 47% on apps such as YouTube, and 30 percent watch long videos using services such as Netflix, on their mobile phones at least weekly. The use of laptops, smartphones and tablets for watching video content is rapidly increasing. Access to video content is among the top three reasons that consumers in the region acquire an internet connection. Mobile financial services are also on the rise, and at least 14 percent of mobile users access them weekly. They include mobile payment, mobile money and mobile banking. A recent study on this topic in Latin America showed that these services bring benefits both for the unbanked and banked populations. The M2M market Although Machine-to-Machine (M2M) is not considered within the figures of mobile subscriptions in this report, it is a growing segment worth mentioning. It is estimated that there are 20 million cellular M2M connections in Latin America in 2014, a figure that is set to grow around 3 times during the forecast period. The traffic associated with M2M represents only a small share of the total traffic, and will remain so in the coming years, despite its strong growth. The rapid increase of M2M subscriptions is driven by the popularity of the Internet of Things, M2M solutions in different industries and the proliferation of consumer electronics and connected vehicles. PC Tablet Mobile phone Digital activities are becoming part of the user’s daily routine. 74 percent of Latin Americans browse the internet, 61 percent use social networks and 30 percent watch video clips at least daily, using any internet-enabled device. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 3 www New mobile services and applications emerge every day, changing the way users communicate and how they behave. 37 percent of mobile phone users in the region download apps at least weekly. Usage of over-the-top (OTT) services, that is, services which are used over the internet, is high with 57 percent of mobile phone users taking advantage of them. Among those who use the internet on their mobile phones, 55 percent prefer to send Instant Messages (IM) over SMS. OTT calls are also gaining popularity, and 17 percent prefer this option to the traditional call service. Video as a digital activity is also gaining popularity among Latin Americans. 26 percent of mobile phone users make video calls, 41 percent watch video clips on mobile phones (daily share) Daily usage of services on mobile phones Short videos Brazil Mexico Argentina Latin America Browsing Social networks 52% 52% 49% 51% 29% 33% 61% 48% 62% 46% 23% 22% + 3 hours/day IM OTT calls 53% 21% 27% 11% 79% 89% 73% Calls Messaging Brazil Mexico Argentina 1–3 hours/day Daily SMS Traditional calls Weekly Monthly or less often 33% 20% 30% 34% 31% 22% 9% 13% 8% 12% 18% 11% 8% 11% 9% Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) Base: Internet user and device owners Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) Base: Mobile phone users Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) Base: Internet users with mobile phones
  • 4. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS Latin America represents around 10 percent of global mobile subscriptions. The region is expected to reach 740 million subscriptions at the end of 2014. Between 2014 and 2020 it is forecast that Latin America’s mobile subscriptions will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 percent, amounting to 900 million subscriptions by the end of 2020. Technology evolution The majority (60 percent) of Latin America still uses GSM/EDGE, commonly known as 2G technology. This is due to the large proportion of lower income consumers using handsets that only work with that technology. GSM will continue to be the most popular mobile technology in the region up until 2016. Between 2016 and 2020, WCDMA/HSPA will take over as the leading radio access technology in the region. It will account for about 65 percent of total subscriptions, up from almost 40 percent today. The increasing number of connected consumers and the need for speed are contributing to the fast growth of 3G. LTE spectrum auctions and launches will continue to be a top priority for operators and regulators. Mobile subscriptions, Latin America, split per technology (million) LTE WCDMA/HSPA GSM/EDGE Mobile PC/router/tablet Smartphone Feature/basic phone CDMA TD-SCDMA Other technology 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 >250 MILLION LTE subscriptions by the end of 2020 Mobile subscriptions, Latin America, split per device (million) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 4 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 These will accelerate the uptake of this technology. It is estimated that LTE will represent approximately 30 percent of total mobile subscriptions by 2020, with more than 250 million subscriptions. Smartphone subscriptions Smartphones will play a key role in 3G and 4G adoption. Lower prices, together with the increasing amount of online services, apps and virtual content, will boost smartphone adoption from over 35 percent of total subscriptions in 2014 to more than 65 percent by 2020. It is estimated that the number of smartphone subscriptions in the region will surpass those for feature/basic phones by 2016. This is not unexpected considering that 34 percent of people are planning to buy, renew or upgrade their smartphones in the next 12 months, according to a study from Ericsson ConsumerLab in 2014. The increase of cheaper smartphones will provide more consumers with the opportunity to access online services, since personal computers and tablets are more expensive. In some markets, like Mexico, the smartphone is the primary device for accessing the internet.
  • 5. MOBILE TRAFFIC Mobile traffic, Latin America (monthly PetaBytes) Voice Data 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 400 Mobile data traffic, Latin America, split per device (monthly PetaBytes) Mobile PC/router/tablet Smartphone 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 5 With the rise of apps and smartphone usage, mobile data traffic will continue to grow steadily in the region. Between 2014 and 2020, mobile data traffic will increase, reaching 1.8 ExaBytes (EB), 6 times more than 2014. Meanwhile, annual growth for voice traffic will only be around three percent during the same time period. Data traffic in the mobile segment is boosted mainly by two components: 1. The rapid uptake of smart devices In developing markets, price is the primary barrier in the adoption of smart devices. With the availability of lower priced models, it is expected that these devices will rapidly achieve a critical mass. In 2016, 50 percent of mobile subscriptions will be smartphones. The rise of smartphone subscriptions is the primary driver for mobile data growth. In 2012 the total mobile traffic generated by mobile phones (mainly smartphones) exceeded that of mobile PCs, tablets and routers. By 2020, it is estimated that smartphone data traffic will represent around 75 percent of the total mobile data traffic in the region. This will result in more than 2.5 GB of data traffic per month per active smartphone on average. 2. The explosion of video and apps in the cloud Video is the largest contributor to data traffic volumes for any device. Globally, it represents approximately 40 percent of mobile data traffic. Social networking and web browsing represent shares of around 15 and 10 percent, respectively. An Ericsson study4 conducted in Brazil, Mexico and Chile indicated that on average 86 percent of internet users use mobile devices such as laptops, tablets and smartphones to consume video on a weekly basis. 59 percent do so outside the home. Smartphone users with a data subscription who watch video content at least on a weekly basis have increased their total viewing time by more than 30 percent since 2012. They watch 8 hours of video content per week on their smartphones, compared to 6 hours in 2012. 600 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6x growth in mobile data traffic between 2014 and 2020 4 Ericsson ConsumerLab TV and Video Study 2014. Based on 3,000 interviews with people with a broadband internet connection that watch TV/video at least on a weekly basis, 15—69 years old
  • 6. Population and app coverage Population coverage Population coverage of an area is defined as the proportion of the population with sufficient signal to connect to a mobile network. This concept impacts the perception of service quality and as such will grow in importance since connectivity is expected everywhere, at any time. Back in 1997, the first GSM network in the region was rolled out in Chile. Over the years the technology spread across Latin America. Today, GSM/EDGE has almost 90 percent population coverage in the region and it will continue to grow. Nine years later, in 2006, Chile was again the pioneer, implementing the first 3G network in the region. WCDMA/HSPA has been deployed faster than GSM and it already covers approximately 65 percent of Latin America´s population. It is expected to increase to around 90 percent by the end of 2020. Population coverage, Latin America ~90% WCDMA/HSPA ~65% ~90% >90% GSM/EDGE 2013 2020 2013 2020 2013 2020 >65% LTE population coverage by 2020 in Latin America >65% LTE 20% In recent years, LTE has been on the agenda of governments and operators, along with continued 3G investments. Since the introduction of LTE in Puerto Rico in 2011, more than 40 networks have been launched in 18 countries in the region. At the moment, LTE has a 20 percent population coverage and it is forecast to increase to cover more than 65 percent by 2020. This makes it the fastest growing mobile technology in history. However, spectrum liberalization and availability of a wide range of LTE devices and business models to monetize investments are the major challenges to the successful uptake of 4G in the region. Currently in Latin America most LTE operations use high spectrum bands (2600 MHz, 1700/2100 MHz). New LTE deployments in low spectrum bands (700 MHz) have started to emerge in the region. These are equally important to provide less expensive and more efficient mobile broadband coverage in rural or low-income areas, as well as dense urban areas and indoor environments. App coverage This term refers to the area within which there is a high probability of experiencing sufficient network performance to run a given app, e.g. video streaming or web browsing. App coverage is an integrated view of mobile broadband network coverage, capacity and quality. The increasing usage of apps as an integral part of people’s lives constitutes a challenge for networks. Low satisfaction with network performance among smartphone users is related to time-to-content. Slow webpage and content download speeds are the most common issues reported by users in Latin America, followed by apps crashing when in use and problems with streaming video. At least 67 percent of smartphone users have faced these problems, according to an Ericsson ConsumerLab study conducted in the region during 2013. 6 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014
  • 7. 4,000 1,200 2,500 2,000 600 1,000 0 0 Network performance satisfaction levels in Latin America show there is room for improvement. In the biggest mobile subscription markets (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina), on average only 34 percent of mobile users are satisfied with their mobile service, while 34 percent would recommend their current operator. On the other hand, 20 percent would consider churning their operator in the next 12 months.5 Ericsson has analyzed the network performance measurements from Speedtest.net to calculate the median downlink and uplink data throughput rate. A user has a 50 percent probability of getting the median rate or higher throughout the network coverage area. In Latin America, median values of downlink and uplink throughput have grown over the last year. Colombia and Mexico have shown steady growth with a median rate of over 3 Mbps in Q2 2014 for downlink and 1 Mbps for uplink, as shown in the chart above. This can be explained by network optimization and the recent deployment of LTE networks. Faster speeds are expected as LTE is rolled out in the region. This will reduce the gap with developed countries around the world where median speeds can reach between 5 to 8 Mbps for downlink throughput. Parallel network optimizations are needed while LTE grows in coverage and penetration. Today, users expect permanent mobile connectivity, with a signal that enables a good experience according to their unique requirements. Unquestionably, the boom of devices, applications, digital content and OTT services places higher demands on networks in terms of capacity, speed and coverage. Meeting these new demands will only be possible through superior performing networks. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NOVEMBER 2014 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 7 Median (50 percent probability) downlink throughput (Kbps) Median (50 percent probability) uplink throughput (Kbps) Source: Analysis performed by Ericsson, based on Ookla’s NetMetrics data from Speedtest.net, 2014 Source: Analysis performed by Ericsson, based on Ookla’s NetMetrics data from Speedtest.net, 2014 500 200 3,000 800 1,500 400 3,500 1,000 Q2 2012 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q2 2014 Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Satisfying new market demands Perception of network performance is the factor with the highest impact on loyalty for smartphone users. In Latin America it has twice the impact compared to customer support, 4 times the impact of loyalty rewards and 60 percent more impact than value for money, according to an Ericsson ConsumerLab study conducted in 2013. Satisfaction and recommendation levels (percentage) Net promoter score Satisfaction 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mexico Brazil Argentina Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab (2014) Base: Mobile phone users 5 Satisfaction level: Top 2 in a scale of 11 points. Recommendation level: Top 2 in a scale of 11 points.
  • 8. EAB-14:061137 Uen, Revision A © Ericsson AB 2014 Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society – a world leader in communications technology and services. Our long-term relationships with every major telecom operator in the world allow people, businesses and societies to fulfill their potential and create a more sustainable future. Our services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the cloud – are enabling the telecom industry and other sectors to do better business, increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. With more than 110,000 professionals and customers in 180 countries, we combine global scale with technology and services leadership. We support networks that connect more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Forty percent of the world’s mobile traffic is carried over Ericsson networks. And our investments in research and development ensure that our solutions – and our customers – stay in front. Founded in 1876, Ericsson has its headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden. Net sales in 2013 were SEK 227.4 billion (USD 34.9 billion). Ericsson is listed on NASDAQ OMX stock exchange in Stockholm and the NASDAQ in New York. The contents of this document are based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. The content of this document is subject to revision without notice due to continued progress in methodology, design and manufacturing. Ericsson shall have no liability for any error or damage of any kind resulting from the use of this document. Ericsson SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 10 719 00 00 www.ericsson.com