January 2014 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
1. Monthly Indicators
A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
January 2014
Quick Facts
The same factors that catalyzed widespread market recovery in 2012 and 2013
are likely to continue in 2014, though perhaps at a more moderate pace. That's
not a bad thing, since the market is returning to a stable, healthy state. Potential
trends to watch for in 2014 include increased seller activity, more new
construction and fewer foreclosures on the market. Inventory is another metric
to watch this year.
New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 15.7 percent for detached
homes and 18.2 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 6.0
percent for detached homes but increased 0.8 percent for condominiums.
The Median Sales Price was up 12.8 percent to $485,100 for single-family
properties and 13.9 percent to $420,500 for condominiums. Months Supply of
Inventory decreased 24.9 percent for single-family units and 30.9 percent for
townhouse-condo units.
Given how far the market has come, it's a good time for folks to reassess their
situation. Many who were hesitant to sell in recent years may find themselves in
a completely different position. Getting a fresh comparative market analysis
might be a good idea. Interest rates remain attractive and should remain below
their long-term average, but they are expected to creep higher in 2014.
Politicians are gearing up for midterm elections, so pay close attention to
campaign messaging as relates to real estate or mortgage financing. Job
growth is still fundamental and is likely to dominate this election cycle.
- 2.9%
- 6.0%
+ 0.8%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
All Properties
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Single-Family Only
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Condominium Only
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
Pending Sales
New Listings
City of Boston Overview
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Click on desired metric to jump to that page.
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of February 18, 2014. All data from MLS Property
Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
2. Single-Family Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Closed Sales
+/–
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
+/–
597
1-2013
1 2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
- 29.4%
--
--
--
2.9
- 24.9%
--
--
--
79
- 27.0%
108
79
- 27.0%
95.6%
+ 1.9%
93.9%
95.6%
+ 1.9%
549
- 11.7%
622
549
- 11.7%
733
- 15.7%
870
733
- 15.7%
1-2014
New Listings
1-2011
1,617
1-2014
Pending Sales
1-2011
- 22.4%
1-2014
Percent of Original
List Price Received
1-2011
97
1-2014
Days on Market Until Sale
1-2011
125
1-2014
1 2014
Months Supply of Inventory
1-2011
- 22.4%
870
1-2012
1 2012
97
1-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale
1-2011
1 2011
+ 12.8%
622
1-2013
$485,100
93.9%
1-2012
$430,000
1-2014
Housing Affordability Index
1-2011
+ 12.8%
108
1-2013
$485,100
3.8
1-2012
- 6.0%
1-2014
Median Sales Price
1-2011
561
2,291
1-2013
597
125
1-2012
- 6.0%
$430,000
1-2011
561
1-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
3. Condominium Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Closed Sales
+/–
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
+/–
514
1-2013
1 2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
- 30.4%
--
--
--
2.1
- 30.9%
--
--
--
63
- 28.9%
88
63
- 28.9%
97.4%
+ 1.7%
95.8%
97.4%
+ 1.7%
636
- 3.0%
656
636
- 3.0%
738
- 18.2%
902
738
- 18.2%
1-2014
New Listings
1-2011
1,101
1-2014
Pending Sales
1-2011
- 22.9%
1-2014
Percent of Original
List Price Received
1-2011
110
1-2014
Days on Market Until Sale
1-2011
143
1-2014
1 2014
Months Supply of Inventory
1-2011
- 22.9%
902
1-2012
1 2012
110
1-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale
1-2011
1 2011
+ 13.9%
656
1-2013
$420,500
95.8%
1-2012
$369,250
1-2014
Housing Affordability Index
1-2011
+ 13.9%
88
1-2013
$420,500
3.1
1-2012
+ 0.8%
1-2014
Median Sales Price
1-2011
518
1,582
1-2013
514
143
1-2012
+ 0.8%
$369,250
1-2011
518
1-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
4. Closed Sales
A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
January
Year to Date
YoY
Change
Single-Family
Condominium
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
597
597
561
561
518
514
518
- 8.0%
435
+ 13.3%
616
- 3.8%
628
+ 3.6%
Apr-2013
518
518
410
767
+ 4.4%
805
+ 6.5%
May-2013
1,096
+ 10.0%
1,068
+ 6.4%
Jun-2013
514
410
425
Mar-2013
1,480
- 1.1%
1,246
- 1.0%
Jul-2013
+15.3%
-6.0%
Single-Family
2013
2014
+25.4%
+0.8%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
+15.3%
-6.0%
Single-Family
2012
2013
+25.4%
+0.8%
919
+ 22.4%
888
+ 18.9%
855
+ 10.5%
764
+ 7.5%
791
- 11.4%
710
- 6.0%
897
+ 10.2%
788
+ 2.9%
Jan-2014
2014
+ 6.1%
Dec-2013
2012
+ 20.7%
1,275
Nov-2013
2014
1,252
+ 11.6%
Oct-2013
2013
+ 18.0%
1,428
Sep-2013
2012
1,488
Aug-2013
561
- 6.0%
518
+ 0.8%
11,323
+ 5.8%
10,377
+ 6.5%
Total
Condominium
Historical Closed Sales Activity
Single-Family
Condominium
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
5. Median Sales Price
Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
January
Year to Date
$480,000
+ 14.3%
$387,500
+ 4.3%
May-2013
$500,000
+ 7.2%
$410,000
+ 7.5%
Jun-2013
$545,000
+ 8.1%
$420,000
+ 5.0%
$533,000
+ 4.1%
$400,500
+ 3.5%
$521,000
+ 5.5%
$416,000
+ 9.5%
$502,500
+ 15.5%
$410,000
+ 9.3%
$474,000
+ 9.0%
$416,750
+ 13.8%
Nov-2013
$369,250
+ 19.1%
Oct-2013
$355,000
- 5.4%
$405,000
Sep-2013
$369,250
$350,000
+ 3.6%
Aug-2013
$355,000
$420,500
$406,500
+ 8.3%
$430,101
Jul-2013
$420,500
$406,500
$430,000
Apr-2013
$485,100
$430,000
Condominium
Mar-2013
$430,000
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
$485,100
Single-Family
YoY
Change
$480,000
+ 6.7%
$410,750
+ 8.1%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
2014
+5.8%
+12.8%
Single-Family
2012
2013
2014
+4.0%
+13.9%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
+5.8%
+12.8%
Single-Family
2012
2013
+4.0%
+ 6.4%
$420,400
+ 10.5%
$485,100
+ 12.8%
$420,500
+ 13.9%
Median
+13.9%
$499,950
Jan-2014
2014
$500,000
+ 8.0%
$409,000
+ 7.6%
Condominium
Historical Median Sales Price
Single-Family
Condominium
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
6. Housing Affordability Index
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary
to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
January
Year to Date
Single-Family
120
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
110
110
97
97
- 1.6%
146
+ 11.2%
121
+ 3.4%
128
- 8.8%
112
- 5.3%
136
+ 2.9%
May-2013
104
- 4.8%
124
- 4.9%
Jun-2013
125
122
Mar-2013
143
135
125
Condominium
Apr-2013
143
135
120
YoY
Change
90
- 11.8%
114
- 9.2%
Jul-2013
92
- 9.2%
120
- 8.5%
Aug-2013
93
- 11.2%
115
- 13.9%
Sep-2013
98
- 18.5%
118
- 14.0%
Oct-2013
103
- 13.4%
116
- 16.6%
Nov-2013
108
- 6.7%
125
- 7.7%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
2014
+4.1%
-22.4%
Single-Family
2012
2013
2014
+5.6%
2012
-22.9%
2014
+4.1%
Condominium
2013
99
- 11.8%
117
- 14.6%
2013
2014
Jan-2014
97
- 22.4%
110
- 22.9%
+5.6%
-22.4%
Single-Family
2012
-22.9%
Average
103
-9.4%
122
-8.9%
Condominium
Historical Housing Affordability Index
Single-Family
Condominium
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
7. Inventory of Homes for Sale
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
January
Single-Family
- 41.5%
1,731
- 47.0%
2,766
- 34.9%
1,973
- 40.2%
3,034
- 30.8%
2,068
- 35.1%
3,024
- 26.8%
2,022
- 31.9%
Jul-2013
2,854
- 25.2%
1,854
- 32.3%
Aug-2013
2,747
- 23.7%
1,731
- 28.6%
Sep-2013
2,978
- 20.8%
1,940
- 23.3%
Oct-2013
2,839
- 18.3%
1,860
- 19.9%
Nov-2013
1,101
1,699
- 40.7%
Jun-2013
1,582
- 32.5%
2,375
May-2013
1,617
2,399
Apr-2013
2,291
YoY
Change
Mar-2013
2,743
Condominium
Feb-2013
3,294
YoY
Change
2,342
- 21.5%
1,524
- 24.0%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
2014
-30.4%
Single-Family
-29.4%
1,715
- 25.2%
1,174
- 22.9%
2013
2014
Jan-2014
1,617
- 29.4%
1,101
- 30.4%
-42.3%
Condominium
2012
-30.4%
Average
2,558
- 27.9%
1,723
- 32.8%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale
Single-Family
Condominium
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
8. Months Supply of Inventory
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
January
Single-Family
- 48.4%
2.8
- 48.9%
3.6
- 37.6%
2.5
- 43.8%
2.8
- 37.1%
1.9
- 39.0%
2.0
- 26.0%
1.6
- 31.2%
Jul-2013
1.9
- 36.6%
1.5
- 44.0%
Aug-2013
1.9
- 31.6%
1.4
- 32.7%
Sep-2013
3.2
- 35.3%
2.2
- 35.4%
Oct-2013
3.3
- 26.0%
2.4
- 25.5%
Nov-2013
2.1
3.9
- 38.4%
Jun-2013
3.1
- 26.7%
3.9
May-2013
2.9
5.6
Mar-2013
3.8
YoY
Change
Apr-2013
6.4
Condominium
Feb-2013
6.7
YoY
Change
3.0
- 11.3%
2.1
- 19.1%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
-39.7%
Single-Family
2012
-24.9%
1.9
- 32.2%
1.5
- 25.1%
2013
2014
Jan-2014
2.9
- 24.9%
2.1
- 30.9%
-54.0%
Condominium
2014
-30.9%
Average
2.8
- 35.7%
2.0
- 42.2%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory
Single-Family
Condominium
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
9. Days on Market Until Sale
Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
January
Year to Date
2014
-17.2%
-27.0%
Single-Family
2012
2013
2014
-29.4%
-28.9%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
-17.2%
-27.0%
Single-Family
2012
2014
-29.4%
-28.9%
- 35.1%
51
- 40.3%
56
- 37.9%
43
- 42.4%
47
- 41.6%
38
- 46.2%
48
- 45.1%
40
- 47.3%
57
- 36.1%
49
- 41.7%
59
- 33.7%
47
- 43.9%
65
- 27.2%
51
- 33.6%
70
- 28.0%
55
- 34.1%
Jan-2014
2013
63
- 22.3%
Dec-2013
2013
- 22.8%
75
Nov-2013
2012
93
Oct-2013
63
- 39.0%
Sep-2013
63
- 22.6%
71
Aug-2013
88
79
95
- 17.4%
Jul-2013
88
79
- 16.7%
107
Jun-2013
108
111
May-2013
108
YoY
Change
Mar-2013
125
Condominium
Apr-2013
131
125
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
131
Single-Family
79
- 27.0%
63
- 28.9%
Total
66
- 31.7%
49
- 37.5%
Condominium
Historical Days on Market Until Sale
Single-Family
Condominium
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
10. Percent of Original List Price Received
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month,
not accounting for seller concessions.
January
Year to Date
96.7%
+ 3.5%
+ 2.3%
97.6%
+ 3.8%
Apr-2013
96.7%
+ 3.5%
98.8%
+ 3.2%
May-2013
97.8%
+ 2.6%
99.5%
+ 3.5%
98.4%
+ 3.3%
99.7%
+ 3.5%
98.1%
+ 2.4%
99.9%
+ 3.5%
97.9%
+ 3.3%
99.7%
+ 3.6%
Sep-2013
97.3%
+ 3.0%
99.0%
+ 2.6%
Oct-2013
97.2%
+ 3.0%
98.8%
+ 3.1%
Nov-2013
93.9% 95.6%
+ 3.2%
95.2%
Aug-2013
90.4%
94.1%
Jul-2013
93.9% 95.6%
YoY
Change
Jun-2013
90.4%
Condominium
Mar-2013
97.4%
93.0% 95.8%
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
97.4%
93.0% 95.8%
Single-Family
96.3%
+ 1.7%
98.9%
+ 2.8%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
+3.8%
2014
+1.9%
Single-Family
2012
2013
2014
+3.0%
+1.7%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
+3.8%
+1.9%
Single-Family
95.9%
+ 1.7%
98.0%
+ 1.9%
2013
2014
Jan-2014
95.6%
+ 1.9%
97.4%
+ 1.7%
+3.0%
2012
+1.7%
Average
97.1%
+ 2.8%
99.0%
+ 3.1%
Condominium
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-Family
Condominium
101%
99%
97%
95%
93%
91%
89%
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
11. Pending Sales
A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
January
Year to Date
YoY
Change
Single-Family
Condominium
YoY
Change
605
553
549
636
553
702
- 6.8%
712
- 4.3%
1,164
+ 1.9%
1,164
+ 9.3%
Apr-2013
656
622
Mar-2013
1,380
+ 12.4%
1,270
+ 9.2%
1,479
+ 15.7%
1,259
+ 6.9%
Jun-2013
549
636
Feb-2013
May-2013
605
656
622
1,285
+ 9.5%
1,091
+ 10.1%
Jul-2013
979
+ 4.9%
953
+ 19.9%
Aug-2013
888
+ 15.2%
760
+ 4.3%
Sep-2013
836
- 1.9%
787
+ 7.5%
Oct-2013
946
+ 8.9%
816
+ 3.3%
Nov-2013
705
+ 3.7%
641
+ 7.9%
Dec-2013
2012
2013
2014
+2.8%
-11.7%
Single-Family
2012
2013
2014
+18.6%
-3.0%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
+2.8%
-11.7%
Single-Family
2012
2013
+18.6%
-3.0%
483
- 3.6%
427
- 7.0%
Jan-2014
2014
549
- 11.7%
636
- 3.0%
11,396
+ 5.5%
10,516
+ 6.3%
Total
Condominium
Historical Pending Sales Activity
Single-Family
Condominium
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
12. New Listings
A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
January
Year to Date
870
926
923
902
870
984
Mar-2013
902
YoY
Change
Feb-2013
926
923
Single-Family
Condominium
YoY
Change
1,343
- 22.4%
950
- 14.6%
- 30.6%
1,342
- 21.1%
Apr-2013
738
733
1,994
+ 14.6%
1,661
+ 13.5%
May-2013
1,981
+ 14.4%
1,531
+ 12.6%
Jun-2013
738
733
1,505
+ 15.1%
1,223
+ 7.9%
Jul-2013
-5.7%
-15.7%
Single-Family
2013
2014
-2.6%
-18.2%
Condominium
2012
2013
2014
-5.7%
-15.7%
Single-Family
2012
2014
-2.6%
-18.2%
1,456
+ 6.4%
1,253
+ 11.0%
1,216
+ 18.4%
1,010
+ 17.3%
651
+ 4.5%
554
+ 0.4%
393
+ 12.3%
363
+ 18.2%
Jan-2014
2013
+ 11.6%
Dec-2013
2012
+ 12.3%
866
Oct-2013
2014
993
+ 6.1%
Nov-2013
2013
+ 12.4%
1,031
Sep-2013
2012
1,116
Aug-2013
733
- 15.7%
738
- 18.2%
14,403
+ 1.5%
12,484
+ 2.5%
Total
Condominium
Historical New Listing Activity
Single-Family
Condominium
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
13. City of Boston – Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
Jan-2013 Jan-2014
Closed Sales
+/–
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
+/–
271
1-2013
1 2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
1-2012
1-2013
- 23.1%
--
--
--
2.0
- 26.9%
--
--
--
60
- 21.2%
77
60
- 21.2%
97.5%
+ 1.3%
96.3%
97.5%
+ 1.3%
334
+ 0.6%
332
334
+ 0.6%
392
- 17.3%
474
392
- 17.3%
1-2014
New Listings
1-2011
571
1-2014
Pending Sales
1-2011
- 22.4%
1-2014
Percent of Original
List Price Received
1-2011
97
1-2014
Days on Market Until Sale
1-2011
125
1-2014
1 2014
Months Supply of Inventory
1-2011
- 22.4%
474
1-2012
1 2012
97
1-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale
1-2011
1 2011
+ 12.0%
332
1-2013
$465,000
96.3%
1-2012
$415,000
1-2014
Housing Affordability Index
1-2011
+ 12.0%
77
1-2013
$465,000
2.7
1-2012
+ 5.2%
1-2014
Median Sales Price
1-2011
285
743
1-2013
271
125
1-2012
+ 5.2%
$415,000
1-2011
285
1-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13