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Changing Climate/The
 Role of Renewable
 Energy in a Carbon
 Constrained World



        E u n y o u n g K i m
S y n a p s e I n t e r n a t i o n a l
      k i m e u n y @ g m a i l . c o m
;   /
Ester Island
What is
Sustainability?




                  Interconnectedness

                  Interdependency
391.76 ppm - 2011     2   12.5   C - 2011   2
               1.91ppm              0.4
389.85 ppm - 2010     2   12.1   C - 1901   - 2000
    41.30ppm        -23
348.55 ppm - 1987
350 ppm
.
(IPCC)

                                . (LA          )

“
                 NOAA, NASA
                                        .” (
         ,2011    ,3   20   )
Greenpeace PLAN
Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look


2050                               95%
                 .

2050           CO2     80%                    .


                                         . ($250 - $300
billion-              $63 billion)


           .

                                     .
Greenpeace Report
Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look



   2050                                       60%

                                       20%                      .

                           32                       .


       2030           6
Greanpeace Plan
Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look




                                        $282B

 2030                 $782 billion

                                                                2030
           $11.2 T -
 $17.9T
Greenpeace Report
 Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look




2015                                       .

              2007                   156GW
                                         2010        158GW
         .

                                      1   2
2030                        .      850
     .                  2    4                                   .(
   2               )
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Mark Z Jacobson - Department of Civil Environmental Engineering,
 Stanford University, California Mark A. Delucchi - Institute of
Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, California




2030                100%

                           : Wind Water Solar
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
              Wind Water and Solar


        ,       ,                 ,
              2009

,             ,                       Life Cycle   -
    ,

,       ,      ,        ,    (WWS)

                            WWS
                  CO2
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
           Wind Water and Solar

,         ,            ,     ,           ,   ,


-                          CO2

 -                 ,             ,
                  25

              -
     ,
                                     .
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
       Wind Water and Solar
                 12.5TW - 16.9TW in 2030

                             WWS
          2030       11.5 TW (   1.8TW) -


                    17% - 20%

.-                  75% - 86%
.
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
   Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW

       51% - 3.8Million 5 MW      (   73M
           ) -             1%

       40% - PV 30% & CSP 10% -         0.33%

                  9%

2030       16.9TW                           1,3000
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
 Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW



WWS      - 2020   4   /kWh                -
                                              .

WWS                     - $100 Trillion

16.5TW                    - $10 Trillion +        +
           ,
Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
       Wind Water and Solar

    WWS           -     1,700TW,      6,500TW

           -    40 -85 TW,    580TW

-     0.02TW,    0.008 TW

                                       .

                                        .
International Energy Administration
U.S. Energy Consumption
      U.S. EIA annual report 2009
U.S. Renewable Energy
          EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010




2010   16GW             2         60%



45% of total US electric generation comes from
renewable energy by 2035- 61%- 65% if federal
production tax credit extended for 25 years.

19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035 in the world based the
new policies that government live up to.
Number of States Accepting Various Types of Energy as “Renewable
Political Atmosphere
80% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035 - renewable
energy: solar, wind, nuclear, clean coal and natural gas ( Obama
Union Address)

4B/ year fossil fuel subsidy directed to renewable energy
(Obama Union Address)

 EPA - serious rules under the federal Clean Air Act that require
emitters to install best available control technology for
greenhouse gas reduction

Climate Change bill is abandoned

Congress passes a proposed national renewable energy standard

Not enough without a price on carbon - renewable energy will
not match with fossil fuel price. The renewable energy price may
doomed to failure because the price is too expensive
Summery of State Renewable Energy Standards
                                        - DOE
State               Amount     Year   Organization Administering RPS
Arizona             15%        2025   Arizona Corporation Commission
California          33%        2030   California Energy Commission
Colorado            20%        2020   Colorado Public Utilities Commission
Connecticut         23%        2020   Department of Public Utility Control
D.C.                20%        2020   DC Public Service Commission
Delaware            20%        2019   Delaware Energy Office
Hawaii              20%        2020   Hawaii Strategic Industries Division
Iowa                105 MW            Iowa Utilities Board
Illinois            25%        2025   Illinois Department of Commerce
Massachusetts       15%        2020   Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources
Maryland            20%        2022   Maryland Public Service Commission
Maine               40%        2017   Maine Public Utilities Commission
Michigan            10%        2015   Michigan Public Service Commission
Minnesota           25%        2025   Minnesota Department of Commerce
Missouri            15%        2021   Missouri Public Service Commission
Montana             15%        2015   Montana Public Service Commission
New Hampshire       23.8%      2025   New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning
New Jersey          22.5%      2021   New Jersey Board of Public Utilities
New Mexico          20%        2020   New Mexico Public Regulation Commission
Nevada              20%        2015   Public Utilities Commission of Nevada
New York            24%        2013   New York Public Service Commission
North Carolina      12.5%      2021   North Carolina Utilities Commission
North Dakota*       10%        2015   North Dakota Public Service Commission
Oregon              25%        2025   Oregon Energy Office
Pennsylvania        8%         2020   Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Rhode Island        16%        2019   Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission
South Dakota*       10%        2015   South Dakota Public Utility Commission
Texas               5,880 MW   2015   Public Utility Commission of Texas
Utah*               20%        2025   Utah Department of Environmental Quality
Vermont*            10%        2013   Vermont Department of Public Service
Virginia*           12%        2022   Virginia Department of Mines, Minterals, and Energy
Washington          15%        2020   Washington Secretary of State
Wisconsin           10%        2015   Public Service Commission of Wisconsin
U. S. Cap and Trade
meaningful political debate stopped on the
federal level - political anathema (   )

U.S. (2.2BT) & China (2.6BT) emission by
2035 (U.S. EIA) - 12% of world emission is
from U.S. coal.

EU is the largest economy union and U.S. is
the second -together $29.61B Gross Domestic
Product -3/4 carbon emission from
Developed country and 1/3 of world wide
emission
World Carbon Market
EU emission trading system alone - $2B program

RGGI - 10 U.S. States - Capping emission of power
sector at 10% by 2018

 80% of sales from allowance auctions go back to the
state for energy efficiency and renewable energy

The auction raised $775M as of early 2011

Some state diverted funds from clean energy to pay
down the debt - a great cap-and-trade success story

RGGI is the classic cap-and-invest strategy and the
result is that total energy costs with RGGI are lower
than without RGGI'.
Cap-and-Trade
California will start in 2012

Modeled after EU

Goal:1990s level emission by 2020

33% from renewable by 2020

Cap applies to a host of emission sources (industrial
processes)

starts small encompassing power plants, then gracually
adding the other resources, until the caps cover 85% of its
economy

After EU, CA will be the second largest in the world.-
population 37 M and world 8th largest economy - CA can
pressure U.S. congress for cap-and trade
The development of California's carbon cap-and-trade scheme
                  (Source: Point Carbon)
U.S. Solar Market
1% of Total Renewable Energy consumption
in 2009

0.5% of National energy consumption

 The fastest growing industry in 2010; $3.6B
in 2009 to $6B in 2010 - 67% increase and
20.5% reduction in price

PV installation will grow 5 times by 2015 -
US global market share from 5% to 15%
U.S. Solar Market

Treasury program ( Section 1603) has
provide key incentives and expires in 2011- It
is not clear if it continues - There is no
rhitoric that he will continue to support

Treasury’s Loan Guarantee Program facing
budger-cut by Congress.
U.S. Solar Market

States are turning to more market based
incentives such as Solar Renewable Energy
Credits and a cap and trade

California is the biggest market and New
Jersey is the most dynamic

Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania
Green Politics
Wind and Solar being cost competitive without
subsidy with new fossil fuel by 2020

Obama and Ken Salazar 758 Mt Coal in auction in
few months

The beaurou of land management announced 1.6
billion tons of coal will on sale in the future

Harvard study:1st generation CCS costs $150/CO2
ton(20Cents/kWh) - Study also found that leaks
from CO2 stored deep underground could
contaminate drinking water
Emerging Clean Tech
                      Green Concrete
Algae Biofuel
                      Green Building
Algae Food
                      Materials
Thin-film Solar
                      Artificial
                      Photosynthesis
Molten Solt Storage
                      Biochar
Rooftop Wind Power
                      Custom Biofuels
Wave Power/Tidal
Power
                      Recycling e-Waste
Molten Salt Storage

The surplus heat produced during the day
can e used to warm up massive amounts of
salt, which can absorb significant amounts of
heat. When the sun goes down that heat can
be used to generate steam and run an electric
turbine.
Recycling e-Waste
The fast growing part of the solid waste
stream- 20-50M mt/year

CloudBlue - New Jergy based company
arranging for direct pickup and recycle

ensure that valuable metals can be reused

ensure no-waste end up in a landfill - poison a child in
Africa or China
Algae Biofuel
      Algae Food

Sapphire Energy in CA & Algenol in FL -
near commercial development

Solazyme, South San Francisco - algae food
replace egg, butter, oil, cookies - taste like
snack but nutritious like healthy olive oil.
Thin-Film
First Solar in Arizona & Nano Solar in San
Jose

First Solar is the first publicly trade and one
of the most successful renewable energy firm

First Solar 11.2% efficiency

Solexant’ Oregon factory will hit 12% in late
2012
Rooftop Wind Power
     Windtronics
     mini-wind turbine - 6 ft in diameter, a large
     circular window fan

     up to 1,500KW/h per year - (10 - 18
     turbines would power a typical house in
     the US)

     no-rotaing gearbox, blades are equipped
     with magnets at the tips and are enclosed
     in a wheel that contains coiled copper -
     entire turbine is an electric generator

     The turbine is much quieter
Green Concrete &
Green Building Material


 Novacem - Cement that absorbs CO2 -
 Carbon negative- near commercial use

 Serious Materials
Joule Biotechnologies - near commercial
status
Biochar


Geoscience - Offset 12%
of global CO2 emission

relatively little value on
its own

carbon price needed

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The Role of Renewable Energy in a Carbon Constrained World

  • 1. Changing Climate/The Role of Renewable Energy in a Carbon Constrained World E u n y o u n g K i m S y n a p s e I n t e r n a t i o n a l k i m e u n y @ g m a i l . c o m
  • 2. ; /
  • 3.
  • 5. What is Sustainability? Interconnectedness Interdependency
  • 6.
  • 7. 391.76 ppm - 2011 2 12.5 C - 2011 2 1.91ppm 0.4 389.85 ppm - 2010 2 12.1 C - 1901 - 2000 41.30ppm -23 348.55 ppm - 1987
  • 8.
  • 10.
  • 11. . (IPCC) . (LA ) “ NOAA, NASA .” ( ,2011 ,3 20 )
  • 12. Greenpeace PLAN Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look 2050 95% . 2050 CO2 80% . . ($250 - $300 billion- $63 billion) . .
  • 13. Greenpeace Report Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look 2050 60% 20% . 32 . 2030 6
  • 14.
  • 15. Greanpeace Plan Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look $282B 2030 $782 billion 2030 $11.2 T - $17.9T
  • 16. Greenpeace Report Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look 2015 . 2007 156GW 2010 158GW . 1 2 2030 . 850 . 2 4 .( 2 )
  • 17. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Mark Z Jacobson - Department of Civil Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, California Mark A. Delucchi - Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, California 2030 100% : Wind Water Solar
  • 18. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar , , , 2009 , , Life Cycle - , , , , , (WWS) WWS CO2
  • 19. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar , , , , , , - CO2 - , , 25 - , .
  • 20. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar 12.5TW - 16.9TW in 2030 WWS 2030 11.5 TW ( 1.8TW) - 17% - 20% .- 75% - 86% .
  • 21. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW 51% - 3.8Million 5 MW ( 73M ) - 1% 40% - PV 30% & CSP 10% - 0.33% 9% 2030 16.9TW 1,3000
  • 22. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW WWS - 2020 4 /kWh - . WWS - $100 Trillion 16.5TW - $10 Trillion + + ,
  • 23. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan Wind Water and Solar WWS - 1,700TW, 6,500TW - 40 -85 TW, 580TW - 0.02TW, 0.008 TW . .
  • 25. U.S. Energy Consumption U.S. EIA annual report 2009
  • 26. U.S. Renewable Energy EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010 2010 16GW 2 60% 45% of total US electric generation comes from renewable energy by 2035- 61%- 65% if federal production tax credit extended for 25 years. 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035 in the world based the new policies that government live up to.
  • 27. Number of States Accepting Various Types of Energy as “Renewable
  • 28. Political Atmosphere 80% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035 - renewable energy: solar, wind, nuclear, clean coal and natural gas ( Obama Union Address) 4B/ year fossil fuel subsidy directed to renewable energy (Obama Union Address) EPA - serious rules under the federal Clean Air Act that require emitters to install best available control technology for greenhouse gas reduction Climate Change bill is abandoned Congress passes a proposed national renewable energy standard Not enough without a price on carbon - renewable energy will not match with fossil fuel price. The renewable energy price may doomed to failure because the price is too expensive
  • 29. Summery of State Renewable Energy Standards - DOE State Amount Year Organization Administering RPS Arizona 15% 2025 Arizona Corporation Commission California 33% 2030 California Energy Commission Colorado 20% 2020 Colorado Public Utilities Commission Connecticut 23% 2020 Department of Public Utility Control D.C. 20% 2020 DC Public Service Commission Delaware 20% 2019 Delaware Energy Office Hawaii 20% 2020 Hawaii Strategic Industries Division Iowa 105 MW Iowa Utilities Board Illinois 25% 2025 Illinois Department of Commerce Massachusetts 15% 2020 Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources Maryland 20% 2022 Maryland Public Service Commission Maine 40% 2017 Maine Public Utilities Commission Michigan 10% 2015 Michigan Public Service Commission Minnesota 25% 2025 Minnesota Department of Commerce Missouri 15% 2021 Missouri Public Service Commission Montana 15% 2015 Montana Public Service Commission New Hampshire 23.8% 2025 New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning New Jersey 22.5% 2021 New Jersey Board of Public Utilities New Mexico 20% 2020 New Mexico Public Regulation Commission Nevada 20% 2015 Public Utilities Commission of Nevada New York 24% 2013 New York Public Service Commission North Carolina 12.5% 2021 North Carolina Utilities Commission North Dakota* 10% 2015 North Dakota Public Service Commission Oregon 25% 2025 Oregon Energy Office Pennsylvania 8% 2020 Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission Rhode Island 16% 2019 Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission South Dakota* 10% 2015 South Dakota Public Utility Commission Texas 5,880 MW 2015 Public Utility Commission of Texas Utah* 20% 2025 Utah Department of Environmental Quality Vermont* 10% 2013 Vermont Department of Public Service Virginia* 12% 2022 Virginia Department of Mines, Minterals, and Energy Washington 15% 2020 Washington Secretary of State Wisconsin 10% 2015 Public Service Commission of Wisconsin
  • 30. U. S. Cap and Trade meaningful political debate stopped on the federal level - political anathema ( ) U.S. (2.2BT) & China (2.6BT) emission by 2035 (U.S. EIA) - 12% of world emission is from U.S. coal. EU is the largest economy union and U.S. is the second -together $29.61B Gross Domestic Product -3/4 carbon emission from Developed country and 1/3 of world wide emission
  • 31.
  • 32. World Carbon Market EU emission trading system alone - $2B program RGGI - 10 U.S. States - Capping emission of power sector at 10% by 2018 80% of sales from allowance auctions go back to the state for energy efficiency and renewable energy The auction raised $775M as of early 2011 Some state diverted funds from clean energy to pay down the debt - a great cap-and-trade success story RGGI is the classic cap-and-invest strategy and the result is that total energy costs with RGGI are lower than without RGGI'.
  • 33. Cap-and-Trade California will start in 2012 Modeled after EU Goal:1990s level emission by 2020 33% from renewable by 2020 Cap applies to a host of emission sources (industrial processes) starts small encompassing power plants, then gracually adding the other resources, until the caps cover 85% of its economy After EU, CA will be the second largest in the world.- population 37 M and world 8th largest economy - CA can pressure U.S. congress for cap-and trade
  • 34. The development of California's carbon cap-and-trade scheme (Source: Point Carbon)
  • 35.
  • 36. U.S. Solar Market 1% of Total Renewable Energy consumption in 2009 0.5% of National energy consumption The fastest growing industry in 2010; $3.6B in 2009 to $6B in 2010 - 67% increase and 20.5% reduction in price PV installation will grow 5 times by 2015 - US global market share from 5% to 15%
  • 37. U.S. Solar Market Treasury program ( Section 1603) has provide key incentives and expires in 2011- It is not clear if it continues - There is no rhitoric that he will continue to support Treasury’s Loan Guarantee Program facing budger-cut by Congress.
  • 38. U.S. Solar Market States are turning to more market based incentives such as Solar Renewable Energy Credits and a cap and trade California is the biggest market and New Jersey is the most dynamic Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania
  • 39. Green Politics Wind and Solar being cost competitive without subsidy with new fossil fuel by 2020 Obama and Ken Salazar 758 Mt Coal in auction in few months The beaurou of land management announced 1.6 billion tons of coal will on sale in the future Harvard study:1st generation CCS costs $150/CO2 ton(20Cents/kWh) - Study also found that leaks from CO2 stored deep underground could contaminate drinking water
  • 40. Emerging Clean Tech Green Concrete Algae Biofuel Green Building Algae Food Materials Thin-film Solar Artificial Photosynthesis Molten Solt Storage Biochar Rooftop Wind Power Custom Biofuels Wave Power/Tidal Power Recycling e-Waste
  • 41. Molten Salt Storage The surplus heat produced during the day can e used to warm up massive amounts of salt, which can absorb significant amounts of heat. When the sun goes down that heat can be used to generate steam and run an electric turbine.
  • 42. Recycling e-Waste The fast growing part of the solid waste stream- 20-50M mt/year CloudBlue - New Jergy based company arranging for direct pickup and recycle ensure that valuable metals can be reused ensure no-waste end up in a landfill - poison a child in Africa or China
  • 43. Algae Biofuel Algae Food Sapphire Energy in CA & Algenol in FL - near commercial development Solazyme, South San Francisco - algae food replace egg, butter, oil, cookies - taste like snack but nutritious like healthy olive oil.
  • 44. Thin-Film First Solar in Arizona & Nano Solar in San Jose First Solar is the first publicly trade and one of the most successful renewable energy firm First Solar 11.2% efficiency Solexant’ Oregon factory will hit 12% in late 2012
  • 45. Rooftop Wind Power Windtronics mini-wind turbine - 6 ft in diameter, a large circular window fan up to 1,500KW/h per year - (10 - 18 turbines would power a typical house in the US) no-rotaing gearbox, blades are equipped with magnets at the tips and are enclosed in a wheel that contains coiled copper - entire turbine is an electric generator The turbine is much quieter
  • 46. Green Concrete & Green Building Material Novacem - Cement that absorbs CO2 - Carbon negative- near commercial use Serious Materials
  • 47. Joule Biotechnologies - near commercial status
  • 48. Biochar Geoscience - Offset 12% of global CO2 emission relatively little value on its own carbon price needed

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