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Power Forex Profit Principle
1.
Power Forex Profit Principles SPECIAL NOTE: This is the March, 2009 update to what I think is one of the most powerful reports I have ever published, and it’s in direct response to the requests my students have been sending me for years. They’ve essentially been pleading with me to show them how they can potentially profit in the Forex markets. Here’s the deal: Just like any other market, most “traders” are losing their shirt when they trade Forex. That’s mainly because they’re going about it all wrong, and many have been mislead by unscrupulous individuals or questionable brokers promising seemingly overnight riches. Forex is still a little like the “wild west”, so there’s naturally a lot of confusion and misinformation out there. In this special report, Power Forex Profit Principles, I’m going to cover many tactics and strategies used by successful Forex traders all over the world. But unfortunately, only about 5 to 10 percent of all Forex traders are actually aware of this information. I would strongly suggest you print out this report and read it more than once.
Good Trading, Bill Poulos Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 1 of 1
2.
Power Forex Profit Principles
PLEASE PRINT THIS REPORT NOW! Please take a few seconds and print this entire report right now. Here’s why: When you print this report out, the chances that you’ll actually read it and learn something new about trading the Forex markets will increase dramatically. I have a collection of digital reports on my computer, and the only ones I’ve read all the way through are the ones I’ve printed out. When you print this report out, you can read it anywhere in your house (or on the road, for that matter). I love my family, but my office is smack dab in the middle of the house, so it’s a high traffic area. Sometimes the only way I can get a solid chunk of time to read something I find online is if I print it out and take it somewhere else in the house. There is an activity in this report that requires you to answer some questions. The impact of this activity will be much greater if you actually get out a pencil or pen and actually write on this report. I highly recommend you spend a few moments completing this activity. Your future could depend on it. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 2 of 2
3.
Power Forex Profit Principles DISCLAIMER: Forex (off‐exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of
loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains. Under certain conditions you may fins it impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when a market becomes illiquid. The placement of contingent orders by you, such as “stop‐loss” or “stop‐limit” orders will not necessarily limit or prevent losses because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Revision 06‐20090308. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 3 of 3
4.
Power Forex Profit Principles
100,000 Traders & Their Forex Frustrations Dear Trader, The information you hold in your hands (or are viewing on your computer) has the potential to dramatically increase the pips you pull out of the Forex markets, and it does have the potential to change your life. That’s not hype, because the potential is real. It’s up to you to make it happen, and my goal with this report is to help you discover in hours and days what took me decades to realize about success in the markets. I’ve been trading the markets since 1974, and I’ve been teaching thousands of students around the world what it takes to succeed in the markets since 2001. So some people think of me as a “grizzled” trading veteran because I’ve seen so much over the past 3 decades. Sure, I’ve scraped my knees and have been through a few bumps and bruises over the years, but I see myself as a filter for you, or someone who has the ability to sift through all the junk and noise that’s out there and tell it to you like it is. So, I may come across a little harsh in this report, but I don’t believe in sugar‐ coating anything or giving you false hopes of success. There are enough swindlers doing that already. I want to give you the facts, like ‘em or not, so you’re empowered to take action and make positive decisions on how to succeed in the Forex markets. They Nearly Begged Me to Help Them For years now, my students and readers have been pleading with me to show them how to trade the Forex markets. And many of them actually took my stock trading courses and started telling me about all the money they were making by applying those courses to the Forex markets. They essentially proved to me what Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 4 of 4
5.
Power Forex Profit Principles I knew to be true – markets are markets. There’s nothing magical about the Forex markets, because all markets are ultimately driven by human psychology – fear and greed – and supply and demand. Sure, every market has its own peculiarities, but if you understand how the basic drivers of human emotions work, you can potentially succeed big in any market. As I researched the answers to my students’ questions about Forex, the more I realized that too many traders were getting “suckered” and “taken” by less‐than‐ honest Forex “brokers”, as well as the “holy grail” peddlers who were preying upon the wide‐eyed desperation of traders who think they can “get rich quick” trading the popular Forex markets. Excuse me, but what I found was disgusting. I found more misinformation, lies, and hype about Forex that I had seen in some time. And that’s when I decided to put all my energy into dispelling this junk so I could give my students and readers a source of factual, actual, solid, realistic Forex Profit Principles that they could use to potentially profit in the Forex markets again and again. So to make sure I didn’t miss any big questions or concerns, I surveyed over 100,000 active traders several times and asked them one question:
If you could sit down and have lunch with me, what is the top question you would ask me about Forex trading? That’s it. Plain and simple. Almost immediately, the questions began to pour in. You know what it’s like Monday morning when you check your email and there’s a ton of it from over the weekend? Well, it was like that multiplied by a hundred, or a thousand. People were confused more than I realized about Forex. Then, more recently, I asked a similar question but this time I asked my readers to post their reply to my Forex blog. Once again, hundreds upon hundreds of comments were posted. And the amazing thing was that the comments, questions, and challenges were nearly identical to my prior survey! I Was Shocked and Excited Quite honestly, these responses overwhelmed me. At first I thought to myself, “How can I possibly address all these questions? There’s just not enough time to Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 5 of 5
6.
Power Forex Profit Principles do it!” But then I noticed something amazing – I started seeing the same questions over and over. So I began to put them into categories, and after a long 12 hour day, I was shocked and excited.
Why? Well, I was shocked to find that, indeed, most of the questions fell neatly into a handful of broad categories. But I was excited because I had personally experienced what all these questions were asking. And I knew without a shadow of a doubt that I could help these traders. But it gets better, because I realized that if a survey of 100,000 traders resulted in a core, common set of questions, then millions of traders all around the world probably had the same concerns. So this report, the Power Forex Profit Principles, is my answer to the top questions I received from my readers and students about Forex trading. Now let’s get right into the “nitty gritty” and clear up these questions once and for all. Are you ready? Let’s begin. Are You Dependent… or Independent? (NEW) When it comes to trading Forex (or any market), I find there are two types of traders. And the type of trader you are could drastically impact the amount of money you make in the markets… it could even forever determine, in part, what the rest of your life looks like, how much longer you work a regular job, where you go on vacation (and how often), where you live, and even your overall health. That may sound like an exaggeration, but if you plan on supplementing or replacing your current income with trading Forex, then I think you’ll find those statements above are quite accurate. Here’s why… Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 6 of 6
7.
Power Forex Profit Principles You’re probably well aware at this stage in your life that anything that requires almost little or no effort produces limited, temporary, or nonexistent results. And that anything that requires you to think for yourself produces lasting, ongoing, and perhaps even permanent results. This is especially true when it comes to trading the Forex markets. Over the years, I’ve observed that there are two types of “traders”. Now, I realize these are generalizations, but they illustrate two very common mindsets. Which one are you? The Dependent Trader: This type of person is usually looking for the easy way out, looking to make a quick buck, or wants to strike it rich. They think it’s possible to “follow the crowd”, blindly place trades pumped out by a system that “can’t lose”, and quit their job. The bottom line is that this type of trader is dependent on someone else for their financial success – forever, for life. Yes, The Dependent Trader can be successful with this attitude, but I believe the odds of success are low (probably around 5%). The Independent Trader: This type of person wants to have as much control of their financial destiny as possible. They understand that when they know how the markets work, they’re empowered to place informed trades without having to rely on someone else. Someone who is an Independent Trader knows they are maximizing their odds of success in the markets, which can make their financial and lifelong dreams come true that much more quickly. The bottom line is that this type of trader holds the keys to the kingdom, and has control of their financial future for their entire life, no matter what happens. If you think you might have a little of the Dependent Trader mentality in you, that’s OK. I understand, because you are not alone. It’s only natural. But when you learn to break out of that mindset and move toward becoming an Independent Trader, everything can begin to change. That’s why one of my goals with this report is to help make you an Independent Trader. Will this report alone do it? No, of course not. However, it should give you a “fast track” toward discovering the right way to trade the Forex markets for you. I want you to understand and feel the power, peace of mind, and excitement that come with placing a trade independently. Everything makes sense. Everything is
Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 7 of 7
8.
Power Forex Profit Principles done for a reason. You know what to do, no matter what the market does. Every single time. It’s awesome…
The Current State of the Forex Market (NEW) Forex is more popular than ever. Let’s take a look at the average daily turnover in the Forex markets over the past 20 years. $3.2 TRILLION a day in 2007, with no signs of slowing down. This spells opportunity for you as a Forex trader, and this is one of the best times I can recall to learn to trade and to start trading the enormously popular and potentially profitable Forex markets. Why? With the world’s financial markets in turmoil, mega trends in the Forex markets have seldom been better. You see, the pressures that are causing disruption in Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 8 of 8
9.
Power Forex Profit Principles the stock markets around the world are also causing awesome trading opportunities in the Forex markets. With Forex you don’t need to wonder when the market will stop going down or when it will recover and how long that will take. With Forex, the six major pairs are almost always up or down in what I call mega trends, providing trading opportunities right here, right now. The problem, though, is that too many traders aren’t sure how to take advantage of those opportunities, or how to spot those trades they could be making. Or if you have never traded the Forex markets, you’re wondering about how you could participate. Or you are wondering how to control risk and get into a free trade situation when trading these markets. If you’re like many individuals, then you know you must control risk first and foremost, but aren’t sure how to do that. As of this writing, the U.S. Dollar has rallied against most major currencies, the continued economic fallout from the housing, banking and credit crises, and the weakening economy, but the risk of massive dollar inflation in the face of the unprecedented U.S. government spending could at some point send the dollar in reverse. But regardless of what happens from here the Dollar will continue to provide great trading opportunities versus the other major currencies time and time again and you can be sure someone will be riding a long run of hundreds, or even thousands of pips as it does. Why? Because as governments around the world scramble to provide liquidity to the credit markets and refloat the economies, they will be directly impacting the value of their respective currencies as they relate to one another which then acts to drive the six major currency pairs up or down in very tradable trends. Economists and other media gurus are all trying to predict what will happen to the economy, when it will recover and when the stock markets will recover. All of this is generally unknowable, but Forex traders don’t have to wait for a recovery. At first glance, you might take such gloomy reporting by the governments, the economists, and the media and ask, “Why would I want to trade in this market?” Here’s why: Those economic difficulties around the world create trading opportunities almost daily. And, as I said, right now, they are creating
Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 9 of 9
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Power Forex Profit Principles extraordinary opportunities in the Forex markets. When a mega trend develops, you have the opportunity to get on board and ride the trend and then get off before the trend reverses. Which means this is a great time to begin trading Forex because you could have the opportunity to catch a huge run. This is also the best time to LEARN to trade Forex because you can take your trading method as you learn it and apply it to the markets to watch those breakouts happen. Plus, you’ll be able to get a real hands‐on experience understanding how those breakouts form, where you would enter and exit the market and how you would protect yourself with proper risk management. So, if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting to trade Forex, I think now is one of the best times to begin or to learn to trade Forex because of the great trends driven by the economic turmoil in the world. The Forex markets are creating trading opportunities right now. If you’ve been missing those market‐moving opportunities, don’t miss another one. I think it’s important to say, though, that as Forex trading continues to gain popularity one of the underlying problems you may face is the idea that you must trade Forex ‘to‐the‐ minute’ (or day trade) – this drives you out of the picture if you can’t commit that kind of time, and it creates inevitable losses if you’re ill‐prepared for the demands of day trading. I believe this talk about having to day trade Forex is wrong; that it is, in part, driven by brokers, who earn the difference in the spread on every trade, and who would naturally want the constant flow of spread profits. Can you day trade Forex? Yes. (I even have a Forex day trading method I teach my students who can handle it – but it’s not for everybody.) Do you have to? Not at all.
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Power Forex Profit Principles In fact, recent analysis of part of the online advertising world confirms that brokers dominate several sectors of the Forex advertising landscape, even to the point of driving up ad costs. At first glance, this would appear counterproductive, until you realize the influx of hundreds of thousands of new traders to Forex is paying for itself in the form of new accounts and spiraling spread profits. With more companies coming online to offer services related to Forex, you must take a smart approach to trading currencies. There is a logical reason that the number of brokers offering Forex trades has increased dramatically over the last few years: brokers are making money on your trades, whether you do or not. In fact, you should repeat that line to yourself: My Forex broker makes money whether I do or not. This is not to blame brokers, but it is to point out what is a simple fact: if you, the trader, do not take an educated approach to trading Forex, you will lose your money. It should also remind you that you need to know HOW to trade Forex. You must have a complete trading method that helps you take advantage of every opportunity the market offers. While Forex presents exciting and profitable trading opportunities, it is very important that you learn how to trade currencies and that you have a trading plan that you can execute every day of the week – no matter what happens in the markets. Too many traders have jumped into the Forex waters without proper planning or learning, and have drowned. Don’t be one of them. Instead, be one of the successful Forex traders who have a solid trading method and execute their trading plan diligently to take money out of the market, again and again.
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I hear a lot about Forex trading and am very interested in learning more about it. Can you give me a brief overview of the basics of Forex? Unlike stocks and futures that trade through exchanges or the NASDAQ, Forex trading is done through market makers that include major banks as well as small to large brokerage firms located around the world who collectively make a market on a 24/7 basis. The Forex market is always “open” and is the largest financial network in the world (daily average turnover of trillions of dollars). Forex trading involves trading currency pairs such as the EUR/USD pair (Euro/US dollar pair) where a buyer of this pair would actually be buying the Euro and simultaneously selling short the US dollar. The format of a Forex pair is YYY/ZZZ, where the first currency is called the “base” currency and the second currency is called the “counter” currency. The price for a Forex pair is expressed in terms of the counter currency. For example, the price of the EUR/USD pair is expressed in US dollars (the counter currency) as 1.3667. This means that the base currency, the Euro in this case, equals US$ 1.3667. The price of the USD/JPY pair is expressed in Japanese Yen as 108.02, because for this pair the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. This means that the base currency, the US dollar in this case, equals 108.02 Japanese Yen. Prices are expressed in pips, which are nothing more than the minimum increment that a currency pair price can change. For example, if the EUR/USD price changes from 1.3790 to 1.3791, the price is said to have gone up by 1 pip. Most major pairs are priced to 4 decimals which is the equivalent of 1/100th of one percent. The exception would be the Japanese Yen pair that only trades to 2 decimals. This is because there are usually over 100 yen to the dollar. Forex pair quotes are on a bid‐ask basis. The bid is the price that the market is willing to pay a seller at a point in time for a specific currency pair. The ask is the price that the market is willing to sell to a buyer at a point in time for a specific currency pair. The difference between the bid and the ask is called the bid/ask spread. For example, a typical EUR/USD quote could be 1.3784 bid 1.3787 ask which is a spread of 3 pips. Since the spread is how the market makers are compensated, there is no commission when placing a trade. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 12 of 12
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Power Forex Profit Principles Also, it is important to note that the spread will vary depending on market conditions. So the quote itself for any given Forex pair is the bid‐ask combination at a point in time based on the market driven floating exchange rate. The quotation lists the bid price first, then the ask price. For the EUR/USD example above, the quote would be expressed simply as 1.3784/1.3787 or 1.3784/87. Trading is done in lots, either 100,000 unit standard or 10,000 unit mini lots. For example, for a standard lot purchase, if the EUR/USD quote was 1.3784/1.3787, then buying an EUR/USD pair means buying 100,000 Euros and selling short $137,870 US dollars. Therefore, for a standard lot in which the USD is the counter currency, 1 pip will equal $10 ($1 for a mini lot). For other major counter currency pairs 1 pip will range from $8 to $10. Forex dealers offer leverage as high as 100:1 and sometimes higher. At 100:1 leverage, 1 standard lot pair in which the USD in the base currency would require $1,000 in margin ($100,000/100). On the other hand, a 1 mini lot pair would require only $100 in margin ($10,000/100). If the account value falls below the margin requirement, the dealer will close out the trade automatically.
How do the Forex markets operate on a 24 hour basis? Active trading sessions in each country’s’ financial centers around the world take place from Sunday 5:00PM EST to Friday 5:00PM EST. For the major financial centers, trading starts in Sydney, then moves to each financial center in this order: Tokyo, London (and Europe), New York. The daily session for daily charting purposes “ends” at 5:00PM EST (coincident with the New York “close”), but the market does not actually close. Here are the time intervals for each of the major financial centers expressed as EST. Sydney session starts at 5:00 pm and ends around 2:00 am. Tokyo session begins at 7:00 pm and ends around 4:00 am. London opens at 3:00 am and ends around 12:00 am. New York session opens at 8:00 am and ends around 5:00 pm. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 13 of 13
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Power Forex Profit Principles To give you a visual representation of this, here’s a figure showing the same business hours for the various regions. In this figure you can see the overlap between the London (and Europe) session and the New York session, between 8 am and 11 am EST. The currency markets experience the highest volatility and volume during that overlap, which also coincides with the releases of important US economic releases.
Figure 1 ‐ Forex Markets Timeline Can you take me through a typical trade scenario? Let’s say the current bid/ask quote for EUR/USD is 1.3802/05 and you want to buy the pair because you think the Euro is going to gain on the US dollar. So you buy 1 standard lot. When you do that you are actually buying 100,000 Euros (1 standard lot) for $138,050 US dollars (100,000 x 1.3805). At 100:1 leverage, your initial margin deposit would be $1,381 for this trade. So in our example, let’s say the Euro pair goes up and is now trading at 1.3865/68 and you decide to sell and take profits. You would then sell your 1 standard lot. When you do that you are actually selling 100,000 Euros (1 standard lot) for $138,650 US dollars (100,000 x 1.3865). Since you bought 100,000 Euros for $138,050 and sold them for $138,650, you made a profit of $600 or 60 pips. If on the other hand the Euro pair went down to 1.3775/78 and you sold at 1.3775, you would have a loss of $300 ($138,050 ‐ $137,750). And again, if the account equity fell below the margin requirement, the trade would be automatically liquidated. However, this should never happen to you if you follow sound risk management rules. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 14 of 14
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What types of orders do I use with Forex trading? There are different order types for different trading needs. Market Order: This order type is used to enter or exit the market immediately at the current quoted price. If you want to buy you will be filled at the asking price. If you want to sell you will be filled at the bid price. Limit Order: This order type is used to buy or sell a pair at a predetermined price. A buy limit order will only be filled if the market trades (ask) at or below the limit price. A sell limit order will only be filled if the market trades (bid) at or above the limit price. Stop Order: This order type is used to buy or sell a pair at a predetermined price. A buy stop order will only be filled if the market trades (ask) at or above the stop price. A sell stop order will only be filled if the market trades (bid) at or below the stop price. How much can I expect to make with Forex trading? It is very important to have realistic expectations. The truth is that Forex trading is not a get rich quick proposition, despite all of the hype to the contrary. That does not mean though that there isn’t money to be made. One of the appeals of Forex trading is the great leverage that is offered. However, leverage can work for or against you and therefore it is critical that you follow good trading methods along with sound risk management principles to have the opportunity to unlock the profit potential that the Forex markets have to offer. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 15 of 15
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Forex seems to be quite different from trading stocks. What are the benefits and risks in comparison and would a much bigger account be needed? In addition to the Forex attributes explained in the “basics of Forex question” above, the Forex markets are indeed different from the stock markets in that their price behavior is different with usually more abrupt price swings. This requires different trading methods than those typically used for stocks in order to take full advantage of the profit potential that Forex has to offer while at the same time designing the right strategy to minimize risk. On the other hand, they are alike in that both Forex and stocks are markets that develop repeatable price behavior that present profit opportunities for those traders with good trading methods, sound money management principles and disciplined trading. Because of the high leverage that Forex offers, Forex positions require a much smaller account size than do stocks trading similar sized positions as Forex margin requirements are much smaller than stock margin requirements. And so the reward can be much greater with Forex, but at the same time, the risk is much greater. But this can be dealt with effectively with good trading tactics and good money management rules that allow for maximizing profit potential and minimizing risk. How do I find a reliable Forex broker? Unlike stock and futures brokers, not all Forex brokers are regulated. It is very important to open an account with a regulated broker or bank that is a registered member of a regulating body. Since there is no central market, there is no global regulatory agency responsible for monitoring the activity of the currency markets. Therefore, regulation is left to each country. In the United States the Federal Reserve Bank monitors the banking system and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has jurisdiction over all Futures and Forex activity. When trading in the foreign exchange markets, individuals should only trade with a CFTC registered entity that is also a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and is regulated by the CFTC. For non‐ Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 16 of 16
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Power Forex Profit Principles US broker/ bank entities, be sure that the broker or bank is registered with that country’s appropriate regulatory bodies. In addition to working with a regulated broker, you want a broker that has low spreads. These spreads are calculated in pips, which is the difference between the price at which a currency can be bought and the price at which it can be sold at any given point in time. This is how the forex brokers or banks make their money since they don’t charge commissions. So, obviously, lower spreads will
save you more money. Trading tools are also very important when choosing a Forex broker. Specifically, you want a broker that will give you good charting and trading software that has the ability to plot the indicators that your trading method uses. This brings up an important point. You should never go looking for charting software first and then try to use or develop a trading method. Instead, you should first get educated on a good trading method (or develop your own) and then find charting software that will let you implement this method. I’ve seen too many traders stubbornly use inadequate charting software just because their broker gave it to them. Don’t make this mistake. Thankfully, unlike stock brokers, many forex brokers do provide you with very adequate charting and trading software, all bundled together. Other aspects to watch for when selecting a broker are the leverage levels and account types (standard and mini accounts) offered. Most brokers offer at least 100:1 leverage which is more than adequate for most traders. Some brokers also offer greater leverage, up to 400:1. This type of leverage is completely unnecessary as the risk reward ratio can quickly go against you if you use excessive leverage. (I’ll cover this in more detail later in the report in the question about risk management.) Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 17 of 17
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Power Forex Profit Principles Depending on your account size, you will want to be sure the broker you choose offers the appropriate account types. Standard and mini accounts are typical. The standard account typically requires minimum initial capital of $2,000 or more, while the mini account typically requires $300 or more. Leverage of 100:1 should be available for either a standard or a mini account.
What are the best Forex pairs to trade? I believe that not all Forex pairs are suitable for trading. What we should be looking for as traders are liquid markets that have sufficient price movement to make a trade worthwhile. With that in mind, the following pairs are the most widely traded, most liquid pairs and the only ones that I would consider trading: EUR/USD – Euro / US dollar GBP/USD ‐ British Pound / US dollar (often referred to as the “Cable”) USD/JPY ‐ US dollar / Japanese Yen USD/CHF – US dollar / Swiss Franc USD/CAD – US dollar / Canadian dollar AUD/USD – Australian dollar / US dollar And to further simplify Forex trading, you could easily limit your trading to the two most liquid and widely traded pairs, the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. This really starts to reduce demands on your time for trading activities without giving up good profit potential. What is the best trading platform and charting software for both beginners and more experienced traders alike and where should I obtain the most reliable data? Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 18 of 18
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Power Forex Profit Principles The answer to this question starts with your broker. First, I highly recommend that you only open an account with a registered broker. Having said that, most Forex brokers provide, “free of charge”, an online trading platform that is integral with decent charting software. This way you have your charting software, your data feed and your trading platform (the ability to place trades online) all in one location. I believe you can consider the data reliable and the order execution proper as long as you are dealing with a registered broker. However, some trading platforms and charting software are more intuitive and easier to use than others, so in selecting a broker, you want to open a demo account first and get the feel for that broker’s platform to see if it is comfortable for you. You will be able to determine this with a little paper trading over a few days and weeks. Also, you want to be sure that your brokers charting software is able to plot the indicators that your trading methods call for. Most will be able to do this, but not all. In addition, some traders prefer to also use additional upscale charting software independent from the dealer, such as offered by MetaTrader. MetaTrader and others offer additional charting capability as well as trade alert capability that some traders find useful.
Is it better to use fundamental or technical analysis with Forex trading? The answer to this question depends on your trading method. The markets are indeed moved by fundamentals (balance of trade data, money supply, interest rates, economic and financial reports, etc.) but only through the prism of human Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 19 of 19
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Power Forex Profit Principles psychology. It is not the fundamental data or information that is so important as much as it is the markets’ reactions to that information. Many advocate trading on the fundamentals; however, a case can be made that trading on the fundamentals is extremely difficult due to the fact that the markets always immediately and continuously are digesting any and all fundamental data and to do this successfully, you need to be available on a real time basis at whatever hour of the day or night that the news is likely to impact the market. Then, you need to act on that news before or at least in the same instant that the rest of the world does or else the opportunity could be lost. While some do trade the fundamentals successfully, I believe using good trading methods based on technical analysis is an easier, less demanding way to trade with far greater odds of success. This is because I believe, as do technical traders in general, that any and all fundamentals are already always reflected in the price of the market at any instant and so I would rather apply technical analysis to the markets and trade them on my terms, when I want to trade them and how I want to trade them, with as little time spent in the process as possible.
I am not able to dedicate the time it takes to day trade the markets. Is it possible to trade the Forex markets on an end‐of‐day basis so I can take advantage of the market trends while working my regular job or when sleeping? This is a very common question; because some believe the only way to trade the Forex markets is by day trading the markets, which generally does require a significant time commitment. While day trading is very widespread in the Forex markets, I believe that a trader can do as well or better with far less time commitment by trading the markets on an end‐of‐day basis. Of course, in order to do so, you must have good trading methods specifically designed for end‐of‐ day trading. It has often been said that if you cannot make money trading on an end‐of‐day basis, you will never make money by day trading. And I believe that applies to the Forex markets as well. This is because the time pressure to make instant decisions on order entry, immediate placement of stop orders and setting profit Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 20 of 20
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Power Forex Profit Principles targets is very stressful and demanding of your time. While some traders prefer day trading and are able to handle its rigors and have the time to allocate to it, others prefer end‐of‐day trading that can be done in as little as 20 minutes a day while the markets are quiet. Let’s look at a couple of examples to make this point.
Figure 2 ‐ EUR/USD Daily Chart Figure 2 is a daily chart of the EUR/USD pair showing a great up move in the market from mid‐October to early December 2006. This was about a 900 pip move that occurred in a little over 30 trading days and a good end‐of‐day trading method should have been able to get on board and capture around 700 pips of this move. With a good end‐of‐day trading method, it could take less than 20 minutes a day to enter, place stops, manage and exit the trade with very nice profits. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 21 of 21
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Figure 3 ‐ EUR/USD 5 Minute Chart Figure 3 is 5 minute chart of the EUR/USD pair showing two great down moves from 7:00AM to 11:00AM September 3, 2007. The first down move was for about 21 pips and lasted for 8 bars and the second down move was for about 20 pips and last for 5 bars. A good day trading method should have been able to get on board and capture 12 pips of the first move and 11 pips of the second move. With a good day trading method, it would have taken potentially several hours to capture these two moves. Now you’re not always going to get a 900 pip move on the daily charts and you’re not always going to get two 20 pip moves in a matter of 4 hours on the 5 minute charts, but I think this example makes the point that the potential gain for the time invested is far greater with end‐of‐day trading. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 22 of 22
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How is it possible to trade the Forex markets on an end‐of‐day basis using daily bar charts when the markets are always open? Most good charting software and trading platforms provided by a good broker or bank include the ability to plot daily bar charts where the daily bar “closes” at 5:00PM EST. This time is selected because it is coincident with the New York session “close” and the Sydney “open” which is a relatively quiet time in most markets until the Tokyo session begins at 7:00PM EST followed by the London (and Europe) session beginning at 3:00AM EST. We can then use these daily bar charts to develop trading strategies that require only the use of these charts without requiring intraday charts. Figure 4 – EUR/USD Daily Chart Figure 4 shows a plot of a daily chart for the EUR/USD pair using VT Trader which is a representative charting software/trading platform. On this chart, each bar represents one day’s trading activity from the high price of the day to the low Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 23 of 23
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price of the day. The horizontal mark to the left of a daily bar is the open for the day (this is based on the first trade after 5:00PM EST). The horizontal mark to the right of a daily bar is the close for the day (this is based on the last trade as of 5:00PM EST). So, as you can see, daily bar charts are readily available in the 24/7 Forex markets. Also plotted on this chart are a few technical indicators. Two simple moving averages are plotted in blue and red and the ADX indicator is plotted at the bottom in brown. A simple moving average is calculated by adding up the prices for a number of bars and dividing that sum by the same number of bars. Moving averages help to determine the prevailing trends of the market. The ADX indicator is a complex formula that helps to determine the degree of trendiness of a market. These are only a few of the indicators that are available through VT Trader in applying technical analysis. If you look closely at the chart from left to right, you can see that this market was in an uptrend and then later formed a double top before falling into a down trend, only to reverse again into an uptrend at the end of the chart. This type of behavior is typical of what you can expect to see on a daily chart and these shorter term trends can definitely be traded using good end‐of‐day trading methods. A good end‐of‐day trading method should be based on an evaluation of the market after the daily bar “closes” at 5:00PM EST for trade opportunities to be considered after the open of the next bar which occurs as of the first trade after 5:00PM EST. In actual practice, because the markets are relatively quiet during this time, trades for the new daily bar can be placed anywhere from 5:00PM to 7:00PM EST when the Tokyo session begins. Trading in this manner then requires only a few minutes each day at the same time without worrying about an open position if it is properly protected with stops and profit targets. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 24 of 24
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Figure 5 ‐ GBP/USD Daily Chart Figure 5, shows a plot of a daily chart for the GBP/USD pair using VT Trader with the same technical indicators as the previous chart. With this software, it is a simple matter to toggle from one pair to the other for quick visual analysis. If you look closely at the chart from left to right again, you can see that this market was chopping sideways until a major move up occurred over a period of more than 20 days and then the market reversed abruptly and retraced that entire gain even faster. After which a new rally started. Again, this type of behavior is typical of what you can expect to see on a daily chart and these shorter term trends can definitely be traded using good end‐of‐day trading methods. You can also see that if you do not pay close attention to risk management that these abrupt swings could do great damage to your account. Like any endeavor that offers great reward, you must get the proper education and training in order to stay out of trouble and realize that potential. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 25 of 25
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What are the attributes of a good Forex trading method? A good trading method should be as simple as possible to provide a powerful edge to the disciplined trader that is based upon specific setup conditions, entry rules, initial stops, and exit strategy. In addition the management of position size and number of positions must be according to strict money management rules. A good trading method also must be relatively easy to follow. Setup conditions – These are the specific requirements that must be met to consider a pair for a trade. These requirements are expressed in terms of technical analysis indicators, patterns and price action. The aim here is to only consider a trade when the market meets these pre‐set conditions and to stand aside otherwise. This is one of the ways required to put the odds in your favor. Entry Rules – Once the setup conditions are in place, entry rules define the trigger necessary to actually enter into the trade. This usually means that price must behave in a certain way in order to “trigger” into a trade using either a market, stop, or limit order. Initial Stop Rules – These are the rules that govern how a new position should be protected from an adverse move in the market. Since there is always risk when trading the Forex markets, it is very important to know the appropriate place to place the initial stop order. Placed too close to the market risks being stopped out prematurely. Placed too far from the market takes on too much risk. This is one of the most critical aspects of trade management. Effective Initial Stops should be place where you don’t expect the market to go and if it does, the premise of the trade is over and you should exit the trade with a small loss. Exit Strategy Rules – These rules govern how to manage a trade to exit the trade profitably, if the Initial Stop Rules have not been applied to the trade. These rules Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 26 of 26
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Power Forex Profit Principles should strike a balance between protecting open profits as much as possible and exiting a market too soon and missing favorable market moves.
Why don’t all setup conditions trigger into positions? There is a common misunderstanding among many beginners that if a trading method is good then any time the setup conditions as defined by that method occur, then that means it’s OK to go ahead and enter the market. As seasoned traders know, this is not always the case. In order to have an edge when trading the markets, a successful trader waits for conditions to develop that may signal a good trade opportunity. But when these conditions develop, which are usually called “setup conditions”, that oftentimes only means that the trader should be on alert to a trading opportunity. An actual trade does not occur unless after the setup conditions are in place a trigger also occurs. The trigger is necessary to confirm that the market will move in the intended direction before entering the market. This is a very important concept, as it is common to have several setup condition alerts that do not trigger. So the moral of this story is that it is perfectly OK (and expected) for setup conditions to NOT trigger. That means conditions are no longer good for the trade, and you are being protected because you didn’t enter that trade. Amateurs and beginners will sometimes assume a trading method is ‘not working’ because setup conditions have not been triggered into a position. Nothing could be further from the truth. What are the best technical indicators to use? At last count there are over 100 technical indicators available in most charting software packages. There is no magic in the indicators themselves as they all strive to tell you something about how the market is behaving at a point in time. And it is not that some are better than others, rather the key to using indicators successfully is to select only a few that complement each other and to use them in an uncommon manner together with powerful trading tactics. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 27 of 27
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Power Forex Profit Principles The tendency of amateur traders is to over‐complicate things. They want to use (or misuse, really) too many indicators and patterns, and think that to be successful, there must be a bunch of complexity that is required in a good trading method. Nothing could be further from the truth. Simple is better, by far, for several reasons.
1. Using too many or the wrong indicators is counterproductive, as the information that those indicators provide is counterintuitive and just plain misleading. 2. Using a few simple indicators in a uniquely powerful way can provide the right information necessary to make good trading decisions. 3. With the right indicators and patterns, you will be far more likely to trade with discipline because you will be able to understand an objective set of rules that the right indicators and patterns can provide. Let me comment on a phenomenon that I see time and time again. Hopefully, you will not fall victim to this. Here it is: You research a new trading method and ultimately buy it. Then you quickly flip ahead to what you consider to be “the meat” of the method, and totally ignore the more‐important aspects of risk management, discipline, and psychology. Then you examine the method, looking for a big, mysterious, jaw‐dropping “secret” that will let you predict each and every market move like a modern‐day Nostradamus. You look for a complicated formula, or you look for some cryptic combination of indicators that must be good, because they’re just so complicated looking! Wow! Then what happens is you’ll typically burn yourself out trying to apply it. You’ll become frustrated when the method doesn’t work. Or, you’ll blame yourself for not being smart enough to understand or apply the method. Then you’ll put the method on the shelf, only to occasionally glance at it in wonder from time to time. Wondering why you couldn’t get what you still assume to be a great method to work. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 28 of 28
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Power Forex Profit Principles But here’s what can also happen. In the example above, after you discover that “the meat” of the method is very simple, easy to understand, and only uses a few common indicators, you become perplexed. You may even become disappointed. After all, in your mind, you expected some labyrinthine skeleton key that would unlock the mysteries of the forex markets once and for all. You may even be tempted to “throw in the towel”, instantly give up the method and send it back – just because it’s not “complicated” enough. What?! That’s just crazy. But I have to admit, I went through a period in my younger (and poorer) days when I thought a bit like that. Time and experience have finally taught me, and much to my relief, that complicated is usually not good, and simple is almost always better. If those traders that are still cursed with that “complexity mindset” would just try a “simple” trading method, they would be doing themselves a HUGE favor (not to mention, potentially, their trading accounts). This goes for both true beginners as well as traders who think of themselves as “experts”. Again, the key here is simple, but powerful. Use just a few indicators, applied in a manner that is not the usual textbook approach. That is what can give you an edge trading the markets. Incidentally, the unfortunate truth of the matter is that the old 80/20 rule will come into play here (except in trading, it’s more like 90/10, or 95/5), and 80 to 95% of the traders that just read this section and nodded their heads in agreement will completely ignore this advice and fall right back into the trap described above. It’s a near certainty, and that’s too bad. So I really urge you to go back and read this section again, and hopefully you can escape the self‐ sabotaging patterns that are separating most traders from failure and success in the markets.
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Power Forex Profit Principles Let’s take a look now at some examples of a few indicators that can be used to form the basis of very powerful trading methods.
Figure 6 ‐ USD/CHF Daily Chart Figure 6 shows some typical and not so typical indicators applied to the USD/CHF pair using VT Trader. First, notice that two simple moving averages have been plotted on the chart (in blue and red). These are commonly used indicators. I have also plotted moving average envelopes which are a fixed percentage above and below the blue moving average. These are not so commonly used and can be very helpful supporting various quick hit, in and out trading strategies that only need attention once a day at the 5:00PM EST daily “close”. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 30 of 30
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Figure 7 ‐ USD/JPY Daily Chart Figure 7 shows some additional indicators applied to the USD/JPY pair using VT Trader. On this chart, I am applying a longer term moving average in purple together with two very short term moving averages in brown. The long term moving average is based on the closing price while the short term moving averages are based on the high and close respectively. Also included is the ADX at the bottom of the chart. This is what I mean when I say the key to developing an edge when trading the markets is to combine a few indicators in an uncommon way. Each of these configurations is designed to exploit a certain behavior in the market. But the indicators alone are insufficient; only when combined with powerful trading tactics does the power of a good trading method emerge. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 31 of 31
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Figure 8 ‐ USD/CAD Daily Chart Figure 8 shows a configuration we reviewed in an earlier question applied this time to the USD/CAD pair using VT Trader. On this chart I am applying two simple moving averages plotted in blue and red and the ADX indicator plotted at the bottom in brown. This set of indicators when combined with different trading tactics is designed to capture longer term moves in the Forex markets such as occurred on this USD/CAD pair beginning at the left hand side of the chart and continuing for over 5 months. These mega trends can only be captured by trading the daily bar charts. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 32 of 32
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Figure 9 ‐ AUD/USD Daily Chart Figure 9 shows another combination of indicators applied to the AUD/USD pair using VT Trader. On this chart, I am applying an intermediate term moving average in red together with slow stochastics and ADX in the two panels below the price chart. The intermediate term moving average is based on the closing price. This set of indicators when combined with different trading tactics is designed to capture sudden trend reversal waves such as occurred on this AUD/USD pair just to the right of the center of the chart and continuing for almost 3 months. What simple strategy can I use to find good entry points? The general approach that I use is to develop specific setup conditions that, when present in the market, indicate that I should consider entering into a new position. So the first thing is to identify the conditions that occur relatively Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 33 of 33
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Power Forex Profit Principles infrequently in the market, but that when they do, a high probability opportunity may await. This is a very important concept, because one of the keys to successful Forex trading is to wait patiently for the prime opportunity to enter the market. Amateurs too often become impatient and want to trade just for the sake of trading and consequently enter the market under other than ideal conditions. This greatly reduces the chance of a successful trade.
Figure 10 ‐ GBP/USD Daily Chart Entry Point Examples Amateur traders that do this are, in effect, trying to force the market to come to them on their terms. Guess what? The market doesn’t care! It’s going to do what it’s going to do and there is nothing you can do about it except for one thing. And that is to wait for the market to develop according to predefined setup conditions and only when that happens is it appropriate to consider a trade. In that way, you’re not forcing, but rather waiting for the market to come to you, which makes a world of difference. Another key concept to find entry points that is common to most types of trend trading is to attempt to buy into support levels and sell into resistance levels. The Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 34 of 34
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Power Forex Profit Principles success or failure of this attempt lies in the robustness of the setup conditions defined in the trading method. Once the setup conditions are in place, specific entry rules need to be followed to “trigger” the actual trade. For example, one of the pairs that you are following may meet the setup conditions for a long trade. Now, depending on the trading method, the entry order could be a Stop order that says, “Only buy if the market trades above a certain level” which confirms the resumption of the uptrend. Or, it could be a Limit order which says, “Buy only if the market trades down to a support level”, defined by a moving average or Fibonacci level or old highs, etc. There is no one right way to do this. However, the precise entry trigger point has to be integral to the other features of the overall trading method, including planned risk in the trade. The entry point rules of the method, by necessity, will determine the stop loss point and consequently planned risk in the trade. The two go hand in hand.
How can I determine the initial stop loss, trailing stops, and exit points? Besides money/risk management, I believe this is one of the most important questions regarding a good trading method. It should go without saying that as soon as you enter the market with a new position, an initial stop order should be entered to protect the position against an adverse move in the market or an exit strategy should be employed to cover the trade if the market closes adversely. If such a move occurs, as is often the case, you want your position liquidated and out of the market with a minimal loss. The consequences of failing to do this are that you will not be successful at trading ‐ period. In fact, every trade you put on, you should plan to lose, so that you are sure to place your stop loss order or cover the trade on an adverse close. Otherwise, what would have been a small loss turns into a big loss, throwing the entire risk/reward ratio out of kilter against you. That being said, where should the stop be placed? The short answer is, “Where you don’t expect the market to go”; or, more specifically, where the assumption in putting on the trade is no longer valid. For example, if a long position was entered into after an uptrend or breakout market traded back down to support, an initial stop could be entered below the recent low because if the market does Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 35 of 35
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Power Forex Profit Principles go there, support (as defined by that low) would have failed, and there is no longer any reason to be long the market – so get out! Don’t wait around for it to come back in your favor because the odds are against it. If the market goes in your favor once the initial stop is in place, then you need a set of rules that will allow you to exit the market profitably. This poses a real dilemma. If you exit too soon, you may secure a small profit, but miss out on all those big moves that occur (and the big profits that go with them). On the other hand, if you wait too long to exit, the market may reverse and take away all of your open profits and even put you into a loss position.
Figure 11 ‐ GBP/USD Daily Chart Initial Stop, Trailing Stops, & Profit Target Examples So what do you do? Well, the first thing is to realize that there is no method that can forecast whether or not a particular move will: Go against you immediately Go up only a little before going back down Go up a lot in your favor Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 36 of 36
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Power Forex Profit Principles For example, after you enter a long trade in an uptrend, there’s absolutely no way to predict what will happen next (contrary to what the so‐called “gurus” tell you). Because of this, you absolutely need an exit strategy, because the risk of loss is significant no matter how carefully you plan your entries and exits.
The Optimal Profit Exit Strategy The following is the very best exit strategy that I believe possible when trading the Forex markets on an end‐of‐day basis. I call it the Optimal Profit Exit Strategy. It’s a strategy that scales out of a trade in two steps. This strategy is first and foremost about taking an initial profit as soon as appropriate, thereby “taking some money off the table” and reducing the risk in the trade at the same time. 1. Step one is to cover 1/2 of your position at a pre‐determined profit target. The profit target is modest, but enough to make the trade worthwhile and the specific level is also dependent on the overall method being used. Once that initial profit target is hit, you should move the initial stop up for the remaining 1/2 of the position to the lowest low of the past 3 days for an uptrend trade or the highest high of the past 3 days for a downtrend trade. You’re now out of 1/2 of the trade with a very nice profit and at the same time you are prepared to ride the market as far as it wants to go in your favor for the remaining 1/2 of your position. 2. The remaining 1/2 position should remain protected by a trailing stop always based on the lowest low of the past 3 days (for an uptrend trade). And so as the market continues to move up, you should continuously move the stop up with it. This locks in a significant portion of the remaining open profit but also gives the market enough room to trade down a bit without shaking you out of the trade if it moves higher. With this strategy you should be prepared to take advantage of the market after entering a trade no matter what it does. And that’s a big deal. Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 37 of 37
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How can I find a Forex method that works almost all of the time with minimal or no losses? I call this the “Holy Grail Syndrome” and, of course, the Holy Grail of trading simply does not exist. I’ve talked about this concept many times since I started training individuals to trade the markets back in 2001, but it bears repeating here. For years, I refused to believe in this concept and was forever looking for or trying to develop a method that would always win with no losses, or certainly never experience two losing trades in a row. I wasted years of my life with this false impression about what it would take to trade successfully. Don’t fall into the same trap. While the holy grail of trading does not exist, nor will it ever; thankfully, it is not necessary in order to be successful. What is necessary as I have emphasized repeatedly in this report is a trading method that gives you an edge in the market, the discipline to trade it and of course sound money management. That sounds simple, and in some respects it is, until you factor us humans into the equation. Consider these questions. 1. Do you have an edge in trading the markets? What is it? If you don’t know, then you do not have an edge. 2. How about discipline ‐ can you really follow your trading method without fail, especially after two successive losing trades? What about three? Or will you drop the method and search for something else? When that happens the “Holy Grail Syndrome” is at work. 3. Then there is money management. Are you allocating the appropriate level of funds and controlling the degree of risk on each trade? Copyright © Profits Run, Inc. Page 38 of 38
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