Soluciones tecnológicas para atender los crecientes requerimientos de capacidad

1. Technology Solutions To Meet
Growing Capacity Demands
Ken Wright
Chief Technology Officer, ARRIS
CANITEC
Monterrey, Mexico
28 April, 2010

2. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
2

3. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
- Exponential growth in internet traffic
3

4. Demand for Convergence and
Bandwidth Growing
U.S. Online Video Viewed on Major Video Properties*
20
More than Doubled in 24 Months
Videos Viewed (Billions)
15
IP Video
10
All Video
on Demand
5 High Definition 100
Video on Demand
90
0 Video
Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 80
Blogs
Megabits per Second
Podcasting 70
150% More Bandwidth Consumed
per Subscriber
Online-
Games 60
Per Subscriber
Video
Every Year Mail
50
Since 1982 Video on
Demand
40
Digital 30
Photos
VoIP 20
Web Digital Music
Browsing 10
E-Mail
Time 0
Sources: Comscore, ARRIS estimates
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5. Over The Top (OTT) Trends
Total Online Videos Viewed/Month
16
14.3
14
12
Billions
10
8 7.2
6
4
2
0
© Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved. Source: comScore

6. Over The Top (OTT) Trends
Number of Minutes Watched/Average Viewer/Month
400
# of minutes
350 327
300
250
200
151
150
100
50
0
Source: comScore
© Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved.

7. IP Video...
It's Here To Stay... And It's Growing!
Overall Online Video Usage (U.S.)
Year-Over- Month-Over-
Oct-09
Year Month
Unique Viewers 138,623,000 +14.8% -0.5%
Total Streams 11,226,935,000 +26.2% +1.9%
Streams per Viewer 81.0 +9.9% +2.4%
Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 +23.8% +8.9%
Source: The Nielsen Company
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8. On Demand
Drivers For Growth
8
© Copyright 2008. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved. All images are the property of their respective copyright owners.

9. Several Applications Are Currently
Driving the DOCSIS Bandwidth Growth
▪ Many MSOs indicated average downstream traffic levels
increased by 40-50% in 2009... some saw even larger
increases
▪ Recent measurements indicate that more than 60% of
the Internet traffic is created by:
- Peer-to-peer file transfers (mostly movies)
- Progressive video downloads (YouTube, Hulu, Netflix, etc.)
10

10. Data Speed Trends for Modems Predict
Ongoing Exponential Growth
Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) (1.5) (2006-1982) = 5M/300
(1.5) (2016-2006) = 300M/5M
100G "Past performance is no guarantee of
100 Gbps
10G future results, but..."
??? 10 Gbps
The past 25-years show a
1G 1 Gbps
constant increase of ~1.5x per year...
100M ~300 Mbps
12 Mbps 50 Mbps
10M 12 Mbps
The Era of
1M 1 Mbps 5 Mbps ~3.5 Mbps
Wideband
256 kbps
512 kbps Cable Modems
100k 56 kbps
28 kbps 128 kbps 90 kbps
10k 9.6 kbps 33 kbps Avg. BW
14.4 kbps The Era of
1.2 kbps 2.4 kbps Cable Modems
1k
300 bps The Era of
100
Dial-Up Modems
10
Year
1
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 11
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary

11. Trends and Predictions of
Maximum Offered Modem Bandwidths
100G
Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
The Era of
10G Wideband
Cable Modems
1G The past 25-years show a constant
bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year... 200 Mbps ~300 Mbps ?
100M 50 Mbps
10M 12 Mbps
1M 1 Mbps 5 Mbps
256 kbps
512 kbps
100k 56 kbps
28 kbps 128 kbps
10k 9.6 kbps 33 kbps
14.4 kbps The Era of
1.2 kbps 2.4 kbps Cable Modems
1k
300 bps The Era of
100
Dial-Up
10 Modems
1
Year
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016
12

12. Trends in the Next Decade:
Bandwidth Growth
???
>1000
IPTV + HSD
# DOCSIS Downstreams
Required for 40K HHP
Headend
HSD
40
Year
▪ HSD & IPTV demands will lead to even more DOCSIS
downstreams per headend
▪ ARRIS CMTSs must (and will) reduce the price/DOCSIS
downstream to enable this evolution
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 13

13. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
- Exponential growth in internet traffic
- Increase in other Unicast traffic (voice, Video On Demand,
etc.)
- Deployment of HD channels
- 3D - Each program requires ~1.3x to ~1.5x the bandwidth
- Simulcasting will require many resolutions for different
devices
▪ Example: 600 kbps for cell phones, 1.75 Mbps for PCs, 3.75 Mbps for
Standard-Definition TVs, and 15 Mbps for High-Definition TVs
14

14. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
- HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
- Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
15

15. Evolution of Bandwidth & Utilization
Upstream Capacity Limited
-Status monitoring
-Set-tops return
Set- 2000
-DOCSIS return
DOCSIS forward
Analog Video Digital broadcast
20
40
50 MHz 550 750 860
-Status monitoring
-Set-tops return
Set- -VOD, SVOD
-DOCSIS return
-CBR telephony return
2004 -DOCSIS forward
-CBR telephony forward
Analog Video Digital broadcast
20
40
50 MHz 550 750 860
-Status monitoring -VOD, SVOD
-Set-tops return
Set- -DOCSIS
-DOCSIS return -SME
-CBR telephony return 2008 -CBR telephony
-VoIP & SME return -VoIP
Analog Video Digital broadcast HDTV
20
40
50 MHz 550 750 860
-VOD, SVOD
-Status monitoring -DOCSIS
-Set-tops return
Set- -SME
-DOCSIS return 2012 -SDV
-VoIP & SME return -VoIP
-IPTV
Standard Definition Digital Video HDTV Unicast
20
40
50 MHz 550 750 860 1,000

16. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
- HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
- Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
- Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024
QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
- DOCSIS 3.0
• 4 channels yields 160 Mbps
17

17. MSOs Are Moving Toward DOCSIS
For Their IP Video Delivery
▪ Based on a trusted DOCSIS architecture
▪ Converges transport of voice, high speed data, and IP
video
▪ Provides channel-bonding and stat-mux gains for 30%
or more extra content offerings
▪ Provides high availability and intelligent packet
scheduling of CMTS, as well as CMTS quality of service
▪ Provides the next generation of cost-effective CMTS
solutions geared toward IP Video transport
- Moore's Law silicon benefits
- Increased packet size trends due to IP video
- Multi-core chip architectures
18

18. IPTV over DOCSIS –
Cost Reductions Due to Larger IPTV Packet Sizes
Avg. Packet Size for HSD = 300 bytes Avg. Packet Size for IPTV = 1370 bytes
CMTS HSD:
300 300 300 300 Processor can process all 100% processor
1 Gbps 300B 416K packets/sec... capacity is utilized
416K packets/second arrive
CMTS without optimization for IPTV:
1370 Processor can process 416K
1 Gbps
Only 22% of
packets/sec but there are not
91K packets/second arrive processor’s power is
enough packets arriving...
utilized
CMTS Optimized for IPTV:
1370
1 Gbps Processor can process all 88% processor
1 Gbps 364K 1370B large capacity is utilized
1 Gbps
packets/sec arriving...
1 Gbps
364K packets/second arrive
4 plus-fold throughput increase via the same processing engine

19. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
- HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
- Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
- Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024
QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
- DOCSIS 3.0
• 4 channels yields 160 Mbps
- IP Video
20

20. What is IP Video?
▪ IPTV - overused term, means anything from YouTube video clips to watching full
programs on Hulu or streamed programs from an MSO’s channel lineup
▪ “Pure” IP Video - delivery of video services over a managed network via Internet
Protocol (IP) to a screen, through a broadband access network
▪ Screens include:
- Computers Internet Content Place and Time
Shifting
- Hand-Held Devices (cell phones)
- TVs with IP STBs
▪ Services typically include:
- SD and HD video Any Device, Any Photo and File
- Digital Video Recorder Where Sharing
- Video-on-Demand
- Electronic Program Guide
- Interactive TV applications
- Targeted and Personalized Advertising
- Blending of internet and video services - widgets

21. Drivers for IP Video Adoption
▪ Consumer
- Any content, Anywhere, Anytime
- Content sharing across multiple devices
- Personalized and integrated services – one provider
- Exponential growth of internet video usage
▪ Cable Operator
- Competition on user experience and variety of services
- Additional revenue streams such as targeted advertising
- Competition on price – reduce Set Top Box costs
▪ Technology
- DOCSIS 3.0 (IPv6, Multicast, High Asymmetry, M-CMTS)
- Emergence of Systems on Chip for home devices that are capable of
“blending” traditional TV with IP Video content
- Network support for higher security and end-to-end QoS
- Advancements in processing & memory – Moore’s law
- Advanced Codecs – MPEG-4, AVC
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 22

22. Driver is Consumer Demand
Any Content, Any Where, Any Time
Today’s Cable Video delivery is an “OR” choice for the consumer
Managed Video Internet Video
• Tight Control
• High Value Content Internet • Unlimited Choice of User
OR Internet Generated Content
• Limited Choices of Content
• Limited choice of destination - • Limited Choice of High
STB & PC Value Content
• PC, Game Console &
Mobile Devices display
Consumer Preference is the “AND” Solution
Hybrid Approach Agnostic Content
•Central content and storage •Unlimited Content – Movies, TV
•Move streaming traffic to the edge Shows, Internet Video, and User
•Hierarchical Caching Generated Content
•Better asset utilization •Time-shifting
•Scalable IP transport •Targeted Advertising
23

23. Examples of IPTV Services

24. Many MSOs Are Planning to Offer IP
Video Within the Decade
▪ Offers access to a broader audience and all three screens (TV, PC
and handheld)
▪ Provides a direct conduit to the 15 to 30-year-old demographic
▪ Monetizes high quality video content with new subscription fees
▪ Offers access to the growing "Internet advertising market" through
directed advertising in IP-based videos
▪ Offers opportunity to become "the organizers" of all IP Video
content (MSO-based and web-based)
▪ Eliminates high costs of the existing MPEG Set-Top Boxs
25

25. Ultimately Convergence in the Home and
in the Network
Scheduled Programming
Web Tablet
Linear Broadcast
Video
Smart Phone
SDV Video
Streaming and
Storage
VoD/nPVR
Video
Dynamic Multicast
Always-On Static Multicast
Simple IP
Dynamic Unicast Video Gateway Settop
Static Unicast Home
CDN
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Internet HFC Network Data/Video
Data/Video
Video
Intranet /
Internet
(remains
unchanged) Data/Video

26. Streaming over DOCSIS3.0
▪ DOCSIS3.0 bonds multiple 6 MHz channels
- 4x34 mbps = 136 mbps
- 8x34 mbps = 272 mbps
- 16x34 mbps = 544 mbps
▪ Inside such a large delivery pipe, it is possible to take advantage of
“organic” self-averaging of Variable Bit Rate (VBR) streams
▪ Peaks of information inside un-
correlated VBR streams are unlikely
mbps mbps
to occur at the same time instances.
Savings
▪ I-frames of streams encoded with
variable GOP size occur at random,
un-correlated intervals
CBR ▪ As a result, the streams naturally
VBR
self-average their composite bit rate
resulting in a more predictable
composite stream with Peak to
Average (PAR) value closer to 1
time
time

27. View of Individual Streams
21 streams MPEG4 HD streams each peaking at ~ 20 mbps

28. Same Streams Packed into 40 mbps Channels
40 mbps
6 to 7 RF (6MHz 256 QAM modulated) channels are needed to deliver 21 streams

29. Same Streams Self-averaging inside 160 mbps
160 mbps
4 bonded RF channels can deliver the same 21 streams

30. VBR Self-averaging inside 320 mbps
8 bonded RF channels can carry 48 streams
4 RF channels used
320 mbps
48 HD Video VBR streams packed into octal-bonded DOCSIS3.0.
That’s 6 more than 2 x 21 in two quad-bonded

31. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
- HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
- Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
- Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024
QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
- DOCSIS 3.0
• 4 channels yields 160 Mbps
- IP Video
- Service Area Segmentation
32

32. Segmentation Solutions
▪ Reduce service group sizes – fewer users sharing
bandwidth
▪ Relatively low cost way to gain capacity
▪ Only approach that increases both forward & reverse
capacity
▪ Can be done incrementally where needed, when needed
▪ Optical multi-wavelength techniques now take cost of
adding fiber out of equation
▪ Amplifier to node upgrades
- Segment amplifier cascades for service group size reduction.
- Labor (and cost) can be reduced by up to 40% by reusing
the amplifier base and eliminating coax resplicing.
33

33. Segmentable Nodes Network View
4 x 4 Segmentation Segmented Amplifier Cascades
34

34. Existing Fiber is Being Exhausted
Need Emerging for Fiber Reuse Technology
Late 1990’s Mid 2000’s Late 2000’s
Tx
Tx
Nodes Nodes New
Community
Tx Tx
Tx Tx Existing fibers
Tx approaching
Tx exhaustion
Tx
Tx Tx
Tx
Tx
32X the Capacity of Late 1990’s
www.arrisi.com 35

35. Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
- HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
- Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
- Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024
QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
- DOCSIS 3.0
• 4 channels yields 160 Mbps
- IP Video
- Service Area Segmentation
- Fiber Deeper and Optical Evolution
36

36. Graceful Evolution Using Existing Infrastructure
Fiber Deep -> RFoG -> EPON
37
ARRIS Confidential

37. Thank You
Questions?
38