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Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   1




Business opportunities with renovations

          PEKKA PAJAKKALA, Senior Advisor
  VTT Business Solutions / Real Estate and Construction
       Nordic GBC-conference, Helsinki, 31.1.2013
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   2




      CONTENTS


VTT


European and Nordic Construction Output
• The role and market of R&M of Buildings

Grade for the Finnish Building Stock
• refurbishment debt
Renovation needs in Finland

Company strategies to increase
renovation business

 Summary
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   3




                           VTT’s strategic research portfolio
                     Addressing innovations, business, services and people
 Materials for breakthroughs
  functional materials and nanotechnology           Enabling electronics and photonics
  bio-based chemicals and precursors                  high-performance microsystems
  industrial biomaterials                             printed intelligence                                 Digital
  wood-fibre value chain                              sensing solutions
                                                                                                           world
 Low carbon technologies in energy
   efficient use of energy
                                              Eco-efficient, intelligent built
   renewable energy sources                   environment                                Emancipation of data
   nuclear energy, clean fossil energy         comfort, health and safety                 interacting with the real world
   energy systems, modelling for changes       connected sustainable districts            gratifying user experience
                                               multimodal intelligent transport           managing design complexity
Industrial resource efficiency                                                            massively scalable services
                                               integrated design, production
  industrial biotechnology - green chemistry
  clean water
                                               and use
  waste refinery                                                           Agile industrial systems
  resource efficient processes     Technologies for health and               organisation and management of
                                   wellbeing                                 global manufacturing
                                     healthier food solutions                simulation based engineering
                                     drug discovery and diagnostics
 Sustainable                         systems biology
                                                                             eco-efficient machines
 Sustainable                                                                 human and organisational practices
development                          ICT for health
development
                      VTT: Personnel 3 200 Turnover 315 M€ (2012)
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   4




European construction by sectors until 2014
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   5




      Factors influencing European Construction




IFO
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   6




Volume of Building Renovation in the Nordic Countries
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   7




 The Nordic
Construction
   Output

   R&M of
 Buildings is
68 €.bill, 53 %
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   8




      Growth of GDP and Renovation of Buildings in Finland
                         volume -index 2000 = 100
150
140
130
                                       R&M of buildings
120
110                                                                GDP
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50



                R&M growth is equal to GDP growth
            => Low growth possibilities in the next years
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   9
                                            ””




State of the Nation of Built
   Environment in Finland
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   10

Grade for Finnish Buildings (stock)                                            scale 4…10




Apartment buildings
Detached houses and holiday homes
Business premises
Public service buildings
Production facilities




Impact on Well-Being                                     Impact on Competitiveness
                                                           •   Housing and working conditions
             •    Health, safety and security
                                                               (space per person, …)
             •    Reachability and accessibility
                                                           •   Adaptability, changes in intented use
             •    Energy efficiency and sustainability
                                                           •   Functioning and dynamics of markets
             •    Comfort and social features
                                                           •   Energy efficiency and sustainability

                        Impact on Sustainable Development ??
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   11




Grade for buildings 7½ => satisfactory

Why the direction is downwards
  • The R&M inputs are not sufficient for repair and
    upgrading needs of the stock

  • Attitudes and way of thinking concerning sufficient
    energy efficiency is changing all the time,
  =>the energy efficiency-debt is bigger than was thought
     5-10 years ago
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   12

Grade for Eco Efficiency of Finnish
Buildings




                                    Knowledge                                     Construction
                                    Public coordination                           Maintenance
                                    Market-driven development                     Use




     FACT:   Indicators and methods are not yet harmonized nor transparent.

CHALLENGE:   Energy efficiency measures for refurbishment already 2015?

 MEASURE:    Indicators and methods needed also for residential areas,
             not only for individual buildings.
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   13




Inadequate renovation increases refurbishment debt

                      Depreciation             R&M output
       Residential buildings     Non-residential         Civil Engineering
                                   buildings              Structures and
                                                        Transport Networks




           Do we have right methods in calculating depreciation ?
    What is the remaining lifetime of buildings and building parts/systems
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013                        14




 The output of Finnish building construction by 5 year periods
    Rakennuskannan kerrosala rakennusten valmistumisajankohdan mukaan,
- the building stockyhteensä 510 milj.m2 vuonna 2005
                     reaching 50 years age is increasing rapidly
 60 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Muut

 50 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Erilliset pientalot

 40 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rivitalot

 30 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Teollisuus ja
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  varasto
 20 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Julkiset

 10 000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Liike ja toimisto

     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Asuinkerrostalot
          -1920

                  1921 - 1925

                                1926 - 1930

                                              1931 - 1935

                                                            1936 - 1940

                                                                          1941 - 1945

                                                                                        1946 - 1950

                                                                                                      1951 - 1955

                                                                                                                    1956 - 1960

                                                                                                                                  1961 - 1965

                                                                                                                                                1966 - 1970

                                                                                                                                                              1971 - 1975

                                                                                                                                                                            1976 - 1980

                                                                                                                                                                                          1981 - 1985

                                                                                                                                                                                                        1986 - 1990

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1991 - 1995

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1996 - 2000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2001 - 2005
                                                                                                      50 years
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   15




       Consumption of heating energy in blocks of flats,
                  Finland kWh/m3/a




How big is the potential for demolition because of the poor energy efficiency ?
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   16




          Renovation or demolition
New requirements for buildings mean more demolitions
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   17




Possible strategies to increase renovation business I




Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   18




Possible strategies to increase renovation business II




 Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   19




Possible strategies to increase renovation business III




Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   20




Volume index for turnover of Finnish Building Companies*
               *with more than 10 employees
                                                                               3x
                                    R&M of Buildings




                                                                               2x


                                         New Building
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   21




Development of renovation market in Finland




Statistics Finland
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   22




New technologies in construction
                Drivers
                 ICT
                 New Customer Demands
                 Green Solutions
                 Material Technology
                 Rising Costs; energy, raw materials

                Construction Technologies
                 New procurement methods
                 BIM Information models
                 Visualisation, simulation
                 Industrialisation
                 Prefabrication
                 New building machines
                 re-use of materials, new materials,
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   23



                           Summary
1. Renovation business is stable and growing compared to new
   building
    (in Europe, in Nordic), the outlook for new building is poor
2. In Western Europe and Nordic countries the R&M market is bigger
   than new building market
3. We have a poor statistics and information on R&M in all countries
4. The renovation market is potential for various actors
   1. Traditional building contractors
   2. Special contractors; HVAC, externall walls, windows, roofs, heat
        pumps…
   3. Newcomers, new actors from other industries
Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013   24



                           Summary II

4. The sustainable and energy efficient renovation is increasing its role
    The big renovation tasks (HVAC, envelope,...) are very important
    from this point
    The weak economic situation means less input to sustainable
    solutions
    Tightening regulations, changing attitudes, energy policy, subsidies
    and rise in energy prices are working for it
    All choices have influence on sustainability, are we/people aware
    of it
5. The growth in R&M business in based on both increase of R&M
      market and share of commercial R&M

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[Nordic GBC Conference 2013] Pekka Pajakkala - Business Opportunities with Renovations

  • 1. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 1 Business opportunities with renovations PEKKA PAJAKKALA, Senior Advisor VTT Business Solutions / Real Estate and Construction Nordic GBC-conference, Helsinki, 31.1.2013
  • 2. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 2 CONTENTS VTT European and Nordic Construction Output • The role and market of R&M of Buildings Grade for the Finnish Building Stock • refurbishment debt Renovation needs in Finland Company strategies to increase renovation business Summary
  • 3. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 3 VTT’s strategic research portfolio Addressing innovations, business, services and people Materials for breakthroughs functional materials and nanotechnology Enabling electronics and photonics bio-based chemicals and precursors high-performance microsystems industrial biomaterials printed intelligence Digital wood-fibre value chain sensing solutions world Low carbon technologies in energy efficient use of energy Eco-efficient, intelligent built renewable energy sources environment Emancipation of data nuclear energy, clean fossil energy comfort, health and safety interacting with the real world energy systems, modelling for changes connected sustainable districts gratifying user experience multimodal intelligent transport managing design complexity Industrial resource efficiency massively scalable services integrated design, production industrial biotechnology - green chemistry clean water and use waste refinery Agile industrial systems resource efficient processes Technologies for health and organisation and management of wellbeing global manufacturing healthier food solutions simulation based engineering drug discovery and diagnostics Sustainable systems biology eco-efficient machines Sustainable human and organisational practices development ICT for health development VTT: Personnel 3 200 Turnover 315 M€ (2012)
  • 4. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 4 European construction by sectors until 2014
  • 5. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 5 Factors influencing European Construction IFO
  • 6. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 6 Volume of Building Renovation in the Nordic Countries
  • 7. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 7 The Nordic Construction Output R&M of Buildings is 68 €.bill, 53 %
  • 8. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 8 Growth of GDP and Renovation of Buildings in Finland volume -index 2000 = 100 150 140 130 R&M of buildings 120 110 GDP 100 90 80 70 60 50 R&M growth is equal to GDP growth => Low growth possibilities in the next years
  • 9. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 9 ”” State of the Nation of Built Environment in Finland
  • 10. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 10 Grade for Finnish Buildings (stock) scale 4…10 Apartment buildings Detached houses and holiday homes Business premises Public service buildings Production facilities Impact on Well-Being Impact on Competitiveness • Housing and working conditions • Health, safety and security (space per person, …) • Reachability and accessibility • Adaptability, changes in intented use • Energy efficiency and sustainability • Functioning and dynamics of markets • Comfort and social features • Energy efficiency and sustainability Impact on Sustainable Development ??
  • 11. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 11 Grade for buildings 7½ => satisfactory Why the direction is downwards • The R&M inputs are not sufficient for repair and upgrading needs of the stock • Attitudes and way of thinking concerning sufficient energy efficiency is changing all the time, =>the energy efficiency-debt is bigger than was thought 5-10 years ago
  • 12. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 12 Grade for Eco Efficiency of Finnish Buildings Knowledge Construction Public coordination Maintenance Market-driven development Use FACT: Indicators and methods are not yet harmonized nor transparent. CHALLENGE: Energy efficiency measures for refurbishment already 2015? MEASURE: Indicators and methods needed also for residential areas, not only for individual buildings.
  • 13. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 13 Inadequate renovation increases refurbishment debt Depreciation R&M output Residential buildings Non-residential Civil Engineering buildings Structures and Transport Networks Do we have right methods in calculating depreciation ? What is the remaining lifetime of buildings and building parts/systems
  • 14. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 14 The output of Finnish building construction by 5 year periods Rakennuskannan kerrosala rakennusten valmistumisajankohdan mukaan, - the building stockyhteensä 510 milj.m2 vuonna 2005 reaching 50 years age is increasing rapidly 60 000 Muut 50 000 Erilliset pientalot 40 000 Rivitalot 30 000 Teollisuus ja varasto 20 000 Julkiset 10 000 Liike ja toimisto 0 Asuinkerrostalot -1920 1921 - 1925 1926 - 1930 1931 - 1935 1936 - 1940 1941 - 1945 1946 - 1950 1951 - 1955 1956 - 1960 1961 - 1965 1966 - 1970 1971 - 1975 1976 - 1980 1981 - 1985 1986 - 1990 1991 - 1995 1996 - 2000 2001 - 2005 50 years
  • 15. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 15 Consumption of heating energy in blocks of flats, Finland kWh/m3/a How big is the potential for demolition because of the poor energy efficiency ?
  • 16. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 16 Renovation or demolition New requirements for buildings mean more demolitions
  • 17. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 17 Possible strategies to increase renovation business I Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
  • 18. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 18 Possible strategies to increase renovation business II Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
  • 19. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 19 Possible strategies to increase renovation business III Source: Terttu Vainio, VTT
  • 20. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 20 Volume index for turnover of Finnish Building Companies* *with more than 10 employees 3x R&M of Buildings 2x New Building
  • 21. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 21 Development of renovation market in Finland Statistics Finland
  • 22. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 22 New technologies in construction Drivers ICT New Customer Demands Green Solutions Material Technology Rising Costs; energy, raw materials Construction Technologies New procurement methods BIM Information models Visualisation, simulation Industrialisation Prefabrication New building machines re-use of materials, new materials,
  • 23. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 23 Summary 1. Renovation business is stable and growing compared to new building (in Europe, in Nordic), the outlook for new building is poor 2. In Western Europe and Nordic countries the R&M market is bigger than new building market 3. We have a poor statistics and information on R&M in all countries 4. The renovation market is potential for various actors 1. Traditional building contractors 2. Special contractors; HVAC, externall walls, windows, roofs, heat pumps… 3. Newcomers, new actors from other industries
  • 24. Pekka Pajakkala 31.1.2013 24 Summary II 4. The sustainable and energy efficient renovation is increasing its role The big renovation tasks (HVAC, envelope,...) are very important from this point The weak economic situation means less input to sustainable solutions Tightening regulations, changing attitudes, energy policy, subsidies and rise in energy prices are working for it All choices have influence on sustainability, are we/people aware of it 5. The growth in R&M business in based on both increase of R&M market and share of commercial R&M