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1. In this issue:
Energy: Oil Prices
Economy: The Markets
Personal View: Interview
OIL PRICES
The war of oil is an ugly game and we have seen
an incredible amount of carnage over the last
year. And we can assume that the worst is not
over. After all, the prices have plummeted
almost fifty percent and, in the process,
bankrupted many of the smaller producers. Is
the cost of production too expensive when
weighing in the current market price? This
question is obvious and answers itself.
The Americans were ecstatic when large
deposits of shale oil were discovered but that
elation is now tempered and the producers are
feeling the pain of the plummeting prices.
Employees are being laid off and production is
being cut. If the price continues to hold at
current levels it would become unsustainable.
And what about one-dimensional economies
such as what we are able to see in Russia? How
are they affected when we couple this with
their falling currency? Talk about a double
whammy! Can they withstand the economic
strain of what becomes a double-edged
sword? We think not and we would not be at all
surprised if things are much worse than we
think they are.
www.fosterelliotltd.com
WEEKLY REPORT
April 20 - April 27 ⌘! Issue 15 / Volume 15
And in terms of the Arab nations? They are used
to this game and are able to weather any of the
storms that have hit the markets so far. In fact,
rather than ramping down their production,
they have increased it in order to put further
pressure on international global prices. We
don’t ultimately know if this is good strategy
but, at least from their point of view, it seems to
be working. They are putting people out of
business in an attempt to lower competition.
Globalization has changed the world in many
ways and we are all affected by each other. And,
it is undeniable that everybody has their own
self-interests at heart. We know it well and
when it comes to this game, nobody is friends
and allies. Where prices go from here is a major
question.
Consumers have become comfortable with
current prices and therefore it becomes harder
and harder to imagine prices doubling from
here. What would happen if they did and the
prices were to rise to levels that we saw earlier
last year? All of the questions that we have are
still being worked out and we will continue to
watch and assess the situation. We refuse to
speculate and make predictions. We would
probably be wrong. We will leave that for the
‘experts’.
SOMETHING A LITTLE DIFFERENT
We like to mix it up a bit and try something a
little different. For that reason, we have
decided to print an interview with an expat
living in Prague.

2. FOSTER ELLIOT WEEKLY
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We found what he had to say very interesting
and we hope that you feel the same. For a little
background he has been living in Prague for
about fifteen years.
‘When I first came here around 2000 it was very
different. And, from what I understand, I came
here at the very end of the time when being an
American was still a novelty in Prague. And it
really has changed. For one thing, when I first
came, the dollar was so strong that it was
almost double what it is now. And a little bit
went a long way. It was much poorer and the
people dressed in a much more shabby fashion.
In a way, it was very charming and almost
innocent. In terms of what we see today, it has
really changed. The Czechs have adapted to
capitalism and are really savvy. It probably
comes with how they had to survive when the
Russians were here. I was here during 9/11 and
I was actually embraced in the streets. It was
truly amazing when I considered the
outpouring of affection. I can assure you that it
is no longer the same. We are still treated well
but it is no longer something special.
However, what I find most interesting is that
the longer I am here, the less I feel American.
Let me explain. I manage to return once a year
but now I feel almost like a foreigner. I never
thought it would come to this and I feel it more
every time. I visit my friends but it seems almost
like an obligation and it feels bittersweet. Of
course, English is my first language still but my
interest and focus is so different now. I care
about American politics but no longer
domestically. I am only concerned with how
they affect the world. I find myself more and
more having to defend our policies and I often
have no argument. I feel removed and distant
and every time I return, even more so. A
common cliché is perhaps ‘distance the makes
the heart grow fonder’. I would adamantly
disagree and would say rather that the
opposite is true. In fact, I couldn’t imagine
returning to the states to live. It would be
like a foreign country and I would feel
completely out of place. I have reached the
point of no return.’
Our interviewee is specific with his feelings
but we must also say that we have spoken
to many others like him. We refer to people
living abroad for more than ten years. You
can lose your identity with your country
and what this person is feeling is not so
unusual. You have to make the best of
what you have and sometimes it becomes
impossible to return. Would you agree and
do you have other or similar experiences?
THE MARKETS
The week before last was quite good and
we saw that the Dow rose about two
percent for the week. This was a nice gain
and we were happy. Our happiness
continued with the current week until the
very end. Friday was a disaster and the Dow
plunged by more than two hundred and
seventy points. It was definitely not what
we wanted to see before the weekend. We
would rather end the week on a high note.
This is understandable but this was
definitely not the case.
The markets are sensitive and react to any
kind of news. There are now a few
concerns that are affecting investor
sentiment. There is the weakening Chinese
data that is one source of concern. Another
is the ongoing Greek situation.

3. FOSTER ELLIOT WEEKLY
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This is well documented and we have discussed
it on many occasions. It does not seem to be
going away. They have, as we stated last week,
alienated many within the European
community. They have lost the respect and
nobody quite trusts them. This is, we must say,
a two way streak and Greece has backed
themselves into a corner.
The cut of austerity has bitten deep and they
can’t sustain it much longer. And there is the
added pressure of the new Prime Minister and
the impression he wants to make on his people.
He has already tried to forge closer ties with
Moscow and that certainly did not help his
cause within the European Union. Therefore, all
in all, Greece remains a huge question mark
and is affecting the market much more than an
economy of its size should.
The final concern is about corporate earnings,
which are just around the corner. The strong
dollar has been a big factor and makes it harder
for the world to buy American products. And
this will certainly affect the bottom line. We will
know more about this in the weeks to come.
In conclusion, when we factor in all of this
information, we had what could best be
described as a brutal Friday. We know that
when it comes to the markets, investors can be
very fickle. And their opinions and sentiments
can change with the wind. Bulls become bears
and bears bulls. Jumping on and off the
bandwagon is the status quo. Quite frankly,
next week should be very interesting but we
must admit that we are nervous and can only
hope that the markets react with the resilience
that has characterized the five year bull run that we
are currently being treated to.
AND ANOTHER WEEK ENDS
We are so happy that we have not had to recently
write about new terroristic acts. At the beginning
of the year, that is all that we saw. Perhaps this
trend will continue. We can only hope. As for oil,
we will continue to watch this market. It affects
all of us and its volatility over the last year has
changed many global economies. We will also
watch the markets next week and hope they are
able to reverse themselves from Friday’s
disaster. In terms of our first article, we wanted
to try something a little different. We like to try
various formats in order to mix it up. We will, of
course, remain flexible in terms next week. We
now want to take the time to wish you all a great
week. We hope you make lots and lots of money.
Good luck to all!