These slides discuss how improvements in the data rates of wireline and wireless systems have and continue to occur. For wireline systems, these improvements are driven by the use of better glass fiber, lasers, amplifiers, and wavelength division multiplexing and there appears to be few limits to these improvements. For wireless systems, these improvements are primarily driven by the use of better ICs. As long as these improvements in ICs continue to occur, improvements in data rates along with improvements in the use of the frequency spectrum continue to be possible. Improvements in both wireless and wireline systems will also make new forms of Internet content possible. Furthermore, these improvements in ICs along with the improvements in MEMS that are discussed in a related set of slides are gradually making cognitive radio economically feasible. All of these improvements are creating various kinds of entrepreneurial opportunities. These slides are based on a forthcoming book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries and they are the sixth session in a course entitled “Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities.”
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Telecommunication Systems: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in them?
1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology
Management
National University of Singapore
How is Technological Change Creating New
Rapid Improvements in Telecommunication
Systems and the Emergence of Opportunities
10th Session of MT5009
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
2. Recent Problem that could have
been Solved Faster with Better
Telecom
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/us-
malaysia-airlines-blackbox-
idUKBREA2J02H20140320
3. Another System that is Emerging
from Improvements in Telecom
Smart home:
http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2014/03/0
4/t-bachelor-pad-controlled-by-
smartphone.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=V_Series
Or what about Facebook’s acquisition of Oculus
VR,
An integration of Oculus VR with FB requires better
telecommunication systems
4. Objectives
What has and is driving improvements in cost and
performance of telecommunication systems?
Can we use such information to
identify new types of telecommunication systems?
analyze potential for improvements in these new
systems?
compare new and old systems now and in future?
better understand when new systems might become
technically and economically feasible?
analyze the opportunities in higher level systems that
created by these new systems?
New applications for Internet, cloud computing, e.g., more Big
Data or uploading of medical and scientific data
understand technology change in general
5. Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling
4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems
5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs
6 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing
7 Superconductivity and solar cells
8 Lighting and Displays (also roll-to roll printing)
9 Human-computer interfaces
10 Telecommunications and Internet
11 3D printing and energy storage
This is Part of the Ninth Session of MT5009
6. As Noted in Previous Session, Two
main mechanisms for improvements
Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon
Geometrical scaling
Increases in scale
Reductions in scale
Some technologies directly experience
improvements while others indirectly experience
them through improvements in “components”
7. Both Relevant to Telecommunications,
but primarily indirectly
Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon
Better materials for fiber (e.g., higher purity glass) lead to
better fiber optic cable
Geometrical scaling in photonics and other
components
Some technologies directly experience
improvements while others indirectly experience
them through improvements in “components”
Better laser diodes, photosensors, amplifiers, other ICs,
MEMS, and displays lead to better telecommunication
systems
8. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics (and ICs)
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
9. Data Rates have Risen for Telecommunication Systems
Optical Fiber
Synchronous Optical Network
10. Speeds/Bandwidth for Wireline Telecommunication
Source: Koh H and Magee C, 2006, A function approach for studying technological progress: application to
Information technology, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73: 1061-1983.
11. But….the last mile is the bottleneck
Last mile from main trunk lines to homes
determines data rates for that home
Installing optical fiber can require expensive
digging……
particularly in rural areas
Much cheaper to install optical fiber in urban
areas, particularly in
dense urban areas
new buildings in urban area
This is why densely populated Asian countries
have much higher usage of fiber to the home
13. Different kinds of Systems
ADSL (Asymmetric digital subscriber line) for
copper lines
utilizes broader range of frequencies than do voice
calls (over copper line)
Asymmetric means that downloading speeds are faster
than uploading speeds
VDSL (very high speed DSL) for copper lines
similar to but faster than ADSL
EPON/GPON: Ethernet passive optical networks,
gigabit passive optical networks
WDM-PON: Wavelength division multiplexing
DOCSIS: Data Over Cable Service Interface
Specification
14. Increased Speeds/Bandwidth Leads to Shorter
Downloading, Uploading Times
Fiber to
the Home
Cable TV
Digital
Subscriber
Lines
(DSL)
16. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
17. Big Reason for Improved Data Rates is that
Optical Fiber has More Capacity
A single fiber can carry more
communications than the
copper cable in the
background where light
stays within glass fiber
Bundling many of these glass
fibers together can provide very
high bandwidth for many users
18. Why do Optical Fibers Have
More Capacity?
More photons can be packed in a small
space than can electrons because photons
have less interaction with each other than do
electrons
Photons mostly interact with glass fiber
Electrons interfere with each other partly
because they have waves and
because they emit photons, which are
absorbed by other electrons
Source: communication with Aaron Danner, Associate Professor, NUS
19. Another advantage of fiber: While the speeds for fiber are independent
of distance, the speeds for VDSL and ADSL depend on distance
20. A Fiber Optic-Based System
Electronic
System
(e.g., ICs)
Electronic
System
(e.g., ICs)
Speeds and bandwidth depend on purity (and thus optical loss)
and type (e.g., graded index) of glass, performance of lasers/
LEDs, photodiodes, IC-based amplifiers, and other ICs
21. 0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
OpticalLoss(db/km) Figure 2.9 Reductions in Optical Loss of Optical Fiber
NAS/NRC, 1989. Materials Science and Engineering for the 1990s. National Academy Press
Reductions in Optical Loss by Increasing
Purity of Glass
22. Source: Fiber-Optic Communication Systems, Govind P. Agrawal, Institute of Optics, University of Rochester
Other Improvements: five generations
of fiber
23. First Two Generations Plus Previous
One
Single-index fiber
Graded-index fiber:
Refractive index refers to speed
of light in material. Less modal
dispersion (different parts of
pulse travel at different speeds)
due to higher refractive index at
center
Single mode fiber:
Narrow cables only support
single mode and 1.3 micron
wavelength has less dispersion
24. Most Recent Three Generations
Single mode lasers, 1.55 micron laser
Lasers with a very narrow line width of
wavelengths where 1.55 micron wavelength had
fewer losses.
WDM, Optical amplifiers
Wave length division (WDM) multiplex enables
multiple messages to be sent down one fiber,
each with a different carrier frequency
Erbium doped fiber amplifier replaces electronic
amplification
Raman amplification
26. Many Improvements in Lasers
Helped
In addition to the improvements cited
above, other improvements also helped
One way to measure performance of laser
diodes is in terms of threshold current,
i.e., minimum current needed for lasing to occur
this enables lower power consumption
lower currents come from lower threshold
current densities
27. Source: Materials Today 14(9) September 2011, Pages 388–397
Reductions in Threshold Current, i.e., Minimum Current Needed for
Lasing to Occur, enable lower power consumption
28. Faster ICs, Moore’s Law has also Helped
Faster ICs are needed to handle the data
that is sent into a fiber or received from a
fiber (shown earlier for Ethernet Cable)
Sometimes called Moore’s Law,
smaller feature sizes enable
increases in the number of transistors per chip,
which leads to faster processing power
Without these faster ICs, the faster speeds
of fiber optics would be meaningless
29. Are there Limits?
Can we keep increasing the speeds of fiber optic
cable?
Can we keep increasing the number of wavelengths
that are used in a single fiber optic line?
Can we keep increasing the performance of laser
diodes?
There appears to be no physical limits
to expanding the number of wavelengths of light that
are used in a fiber optic system
A new approach called “orbital angular momentum”
may offer additional improvements (Science 340, 28
June 2013, p. 1513)
It also appears that we are a long way from reaching
30. Current Bottlenecks to Faster Data
Rates
In telecommunication systems, it is ICs and
conversion between electrons and photons
In computers, it is board level interconnect
Light travels faster than do electrons
But what if we could
replace the silicon-based processors with optical
devices?
combine processors and optical devices on a
single silicon chip?
replace board-level interconnect with optics?
31. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
32. Can we make all optical devices on a Silicon Chip?
33. Evolution of Si-Photonics is in Parallel with
Improvements in Si-Based ICs:
For the most part, both benefit from reductions in scale
34. Do Photonics Benefit from Reductions
in Scale?
Photonics are a form of MEMS
Some types of MEMS benefit from reductions in
scale
Greater resolution with ink Jet Printer
Greater detection with micro-gas analyzers
Greater frequency for resonators in mobile phone filters
Greater resolution for digital micro mirrors
For photonics,
Performance may improve as feature sizes become
smaller
At least until feature sizes reach wavelength of light (380-
750 nm)
Thus cost of processing data with ICs is much lower than
processing data with optical components
35. Laser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with a specific wavelength while
ones below the bar can emit in a wavelength range.
Another Problem: Only some lasers are made with semiconductor
materials and most of them are made with non-silicon based
semiconductor materials (III-V materials)
37. Since the “Holy Grail” of Photonics (put
everything on one chip) seems Far in the
Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals
Improve Conversion Between Optical and
Electrical or OEO (optical-to-electrical-to-
optical) conversion
Large bottleneck
Very expensive
Use optical instead of electrical
interconnect
Start with board level interconnect
39. Photonics attempts to reduce the cost of converting optical
to electronic signals and visa versa (OEO)
http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf
43. Other Materials are Also Possible
Indium Phosphide
Build all components including lasers and transistors on Indium
Phosphide substrate
Leader is Infinera
Hybrids
Use silicon for transistors and some photonic
components such as filters, (de)multiplexers,
splitters, modulators and photo-detectors
Using III/V materials for electro-
refractive modulators, electro-absorption
modulators, laser diodes, and optical amplifiers
III/V materials are added to silicon chip using wafer bonding
45. An all Silicon Conversion Chip?
All components except the laser
are on this chip from IBM
Red feature at left side of cube is
a germanium detector fabricated on
silicon
Blue feature at right with beam
entering it is the modulator.
Yellow areas are conductors
The small red dots at lower right
are silicon transistors
Published on 15 July 2013
www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-49/issue-07/features/photonic-frontiers-silicon-photonics-silicon-photonics-evolve-to-meet-real-world-requirements.html
46. Since the “Holy Grail” of Photonics (put
everything on one chip) is Far in the
Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals
Improve Conversion Between Optical and
Electrical
Large bottleneck
Very expensive
Use optical instead of electrical
interconnect
Start with board level interconnect
Gradually move towards on-chip interconnect
where photonics represents another layer on a
51. Optical Routing Layer is Another Layer on a 3D Chip
http://www.slashgear.com/ibm-silicon-nanophotonics-speeds-servers-with-25gbps-light-10260108/
IBM silicon nanophotonics speeds servers with 25Gbps light, Chris Davies, Dec 10th 2012
52. Lots of opportunities for firms to offer optical
solutions………
But also faster computers and telecommunication
systems will continue to emerge
What does this mean for processing, Big Data
and uploading more data to the cloud
E.g., medical and other applications
DNA sequencers
Astronomy
Particle accelerators
53. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
55. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
(bitspersecond/Hz)
58. Better Efficiency Comes from New Wireless
Systems and Better Components
Private mobile systems (from 1920s)
Cellular phone systems enabled frequency
spectrum to be reused in each “cell”, cell sizes can
also be reduced
Analog (1980s)
Digital, i.e., 2nd Generation (1990s)
3rd Generation (2000s)
4th Generation (2010s)
2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation systems provide further
increases in efficiency of frequency spectrum
they use better algorithms and require better ICs
Better ICs also enable smaller cells
59. Private Mobile: Cellular Phone Systems
Single Transmitter Multiple Transmitters
Frequency Spectrum: Inefficient utilization Efficient utilization
Wavelength: Long Short
Cost per Capacity: High Low
60. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems
Provide further increases in efficiency of frequency
spectrum
2G Digital
Mostly GSM (global system mobile)
Based on TDMA (Time division multiple access)
3G (UMTS): Mostly W-CDMA (wide band code
division multiplex)
4G: Mobile WiMax and Long Term Evolution (LTE)
Newer generations use more sophisticated
algorithms and they require better ICs
Standards determined in standard setting activities
61. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems Require More
Sophisticated Algorithms and thus Better ICs
RelativePerformance
100,000,000
1,000,000
1,000,000
10,000
100
1
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
IC
Performance
Mobile phone
system demands
2G
3G
1G
Source: Subramanian, R. 1999. Shannon vs. Moore: Digital Signal Processing in the Broadband Age, in Proceedings of the 1999
IEEE Communications Theory Workshop
62. It’s not just performance, ICs also
determine costs of phones
ICs: 124.46
Other materials: 48.00
Total bill of materials: 172.46
Manufacturing costs 6.50
Grand total $178.96
Source: //gigaom.com/apple/iphone-3gs-hardware-cost-breakdown/
65. Source: Gonzalez, Embedded
Multicore Processing for
Mobile Communication Systems
http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/
emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf
GPRS: general packet radio service
EDGE: enhanced data generation
environment
UMTS: universal mobile
telecommunications systems
HSPA: high speed packet access
LTE: long term evolution
Another Way to Look at How Improved
ICs Enable New Systems
66. Looking from the other Direction: How New Systems
Require Better ICs and Batteries
67. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future,
presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20.
68. Technology Gaps
Algorithmic Complexity Gap
Demands for faster processing speeds outpace
improvements in Moore’s Law
One solution is multi-core processors
Power Reduction Gap
Reduce voltages in order to reduce power
consumption, but this also reduces processing speeds
Need better balance between performance and power
consumption of phones
Memory access time Gap
Requires smarter memory organization in phones
69. New Demands on Mobile Phones
Another reason for these “gaps”
is that music, video, etc.
requires additional processing
Thus, better ICs are also
needed to handle internal
processing of data (not just
accessing data from network)
And enable all kinds of new
applications!
Better MEMS, bio-electronics are
also important
Mobile phones are becoming the
platform for our lives
70. But Phones Keep Getting Better
Source: Source International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
71. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
72. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
(kilobitspersecond)
73. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
76. Data Rates Per Second for Various Distances of Wireless
Transmission (Note the Source)
Source: Source International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
77. This source and the
International
Solid State
Circuits
Conference
attribute the
improvements in
speeds to
improvements in
ICs
Again, It’s All About Better ICs
81. We are also Interested in Short Range Wireless
Technologies
Source: AStar, Kausik Mandal
NFC: Near Field Communication
Range
Data
Rate Previous slides
focused on this range
82. 82
Range (m)
Data Networking
802.11a/b/g/n
11n promises
100Mbps @ 100m
Quality of service,
streaming
Room-range
High-definition
UWB
Bluetooth
UWB
Short
Distance
Fast download
110Mbps @ 10m
480Mbps @ 3m
110Mbps @ 10m
DataRate(Mbps)
1000
100
10
1
1 10 100
Another Way to Look at Short Range Wireless
Technologies
Sources: MicrosoftCorporation,Texas Instruments
: Ultra Wide Band
83. Why do we Care about Short Distances?
Exchange music, video, and other files with friends
and with other devices
and do this without wires and cables
But also for data exchanges between devices
such as light switches, electric meters
how about between devices in airplane or car?
How can we do this fast and without using a lot of
frequency spectrum?
One new approach is ultra-wide band
We can also use short range wireless to connect
phones with wireline fiber optic systems
85. 85Source: IntelCorporation
What is UWB: Any wireless transmission scheme that occupies a
fractional Bandwidth, BW/fc > 20% or absolute BW > 500MHz.
86. Are There Limits to Data Speeds?
What are limits for increasing efficiency of
frequency spectrum?
Improvements are limited by Shannon’s Law:
C=B*log(1+S/N)
C = information capacity (bits per second)
B = bandwidth; S = signal power; N = noise
In theory, gamma rays, which oscillate at 1024 Hz,
can be used to transmit data
However, to modulate at this frequency, you have
to sample the waveform at twice that rate and the
ICs or MEMS to do this might not be available for
many years
Could a one nanometer mechanical resonator provide
1015 bits per second?
87. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
88. What is Cognitive Radio?
Ability to access many different frequencies with a
single device
As opposed to allocating a specific frequency to mobile
phones, cordless phones, broadcast television
This enables a larger range of frequencies to be
shared among devices
Many allocated frequencies are unused because the
systems have not been implemented
89. Like Other Mobile Phone Systems
The key bottleneck is ICs: Need ICs that can
quickly and cheaply change frequencies
Current prototype requires 2.75 billion transistors
At 4 x 10-8 USD per transistor, price is about 110 USD
Current “base-band processors” are priced at about 25
USD
When will the price reach 25 USD?
Also need antennas/filters that can access many
different frequencies
could MEMS or nano-technology provide these antennas?
Source: Spring 2010 MT5009 final group presentation
93. Using an ASIC would further reduce the
price/cost of the IC
94. New Antenna/Filter is also needed
An antenna that can handle a variety of frequency
bands is needed
In session 4, such a MEMS-based filter was
discussed
Small resonators handle specific frequency bands
Because they are so small, it is possible to place many
such resonators on a single IC chip
And such a nano-based resonator was discussed
One molecule device
In the short run, more traditional antennas can be
used
100. Outline
Wireline
Data rates
Fiber optics
Photonics
Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G
(2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods
Cognitive Radio
Visible Light Communication
102. Made possible
by improvements
in lasers, LEDs, and photo-sensors
Also ICs, for interpreting
reflections
so that direct line of sight is not
necessary
103. Conclusions (1)
Improvements in telecommunication system
performance have and are still occurring both
in
Wireline
Wireless
These improvements have involved
For wireline, finding better materials for fiber optic
cable and utilizing improvements in lasers,
amplifiers, and ICs
For wireless, utilizing new system designs such as
cellular, smaller cells, or CDMA, which have been
helped by improvements in ICs
These changes have created many types of
104. Conclusions (2)
Demand for faster data speeds and higher
bandwidth applications provide motivation for
improvements
There may be no limits to improvements in fiber
optic systems
But the bottleneck for Internet may become
interface between computer and fiber optical
cable
may require an all optical system, including silicon
lasers
new designs and advances in science may also be
needed in order to produce silicon-based lasers
use of optical interconnect within computers is more
likely
105. Conclusions (3)
For wireless, there may also be no limits to
improvements
As long as improvements in ICs continue to be made,
improvements in systems can occur
Improvements in ICs and antennas may also
enable cognitive radio
Cognitive radio can enable further improvements in the
effective use of the frequency spectrum
But If Moore’s Law slows, however…………….
106. What does this tell us about the
Future?
Improvements in Telecommunication Systems will
lead to more uploading and downloading of data
What applications will succeed?
Cloud computing will continue to diffuse, as will Big
Data analysis
But which applications within cloud computing?
What kinds of systems will be developed?
More medical and scientific applications
DNA sequencing
Other medical applications from wearable
computing
Scientific applications such as particle
accelerators, astronomy
Editor's Notes
What about reducing the cell size?
How can capacity of cellular systems be improved
What about reducing the cell size?
Why are we interested in short ranges?
How is this similar to cognitive radio
The better the filter, the easier to design the other components. because filters increase noise.
The passives drive the size and cost of phones. MEMS can replace the passives and thus reduce the cost of these passives. Need better frequencies and bandwidth. 163 MHz.
Phones are a multi-band device. These requires a lot of filters. Current PDAs have about 20 filters. We may have hundreds of filters in the future in order to handle these different bands. We can put these filters on a single MEMS chip.