TWO months ago the USDA shocked markets with a massive US maize crop forecast that promised to cap costs across the feed sector and take upward price pressure off relatively adequate wheat supplies. Two months later, Mother Nature has provided an even bigger surprise – probably the worst US combination of drought and heatwaves since the 1950s – possibly even since the ‘dust bowl’ days of the 1930s. Crop estimates are sliding weekly. Maize production may turn out the smallest since 2006/7’s 267.5m tonnes, more than 100m under the USDA’s original 376m tonne target – perhaps even smaller. Soyabeans could shrink to a four year low of 76/78m tonnes compared with early hopes of 87m.

1. Digital Re-print - July | August 2012
Global Feed Markets: July - August 2012
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2. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
US crop disaster is a game-changer
While the world
T
WO months ago the USDA shocked thinking twice about the scope of its sales campaign
wheat crop may be markets with a massive US maize crop amid its ongoing preoccupation with domestic
forecast that promised to cap costs food price inflation. That would be a pity for feed-
turning out 15/25m across the feed sector and take upward grain consumers in Asia who have been viewing
price pressure off relatively adequate wheat India as an alternative source of supplies to tight
under initial supplies. Two months later, Mother Nature has and expensive US maize and shrinking supplies of
provided an even bigger surprise – probably the ‘Black Sea’ (former Soviet country) feedwheat.
forecasts – and as worst US combination of drought and heatwaves India’s oilseed crops might also be affected, raising
since the 1950s – possibly even since the ‘dust its draw on global oilseed supplies and possibly
much as 30/40m bowl’ days of the 1930s. Crop estimates are reducing its oilmeal exports in a year when these
sliding weekly. Maize production may turn out too will be sorely needed.
under last year’s, the smallest since 2006/7’s 267.5m tonnes, more Down under, parts of Australia have also had
than 100m under the USDA’s original 376m tonne some worrying dry spells. So has Argentina. Both
this market can target – perhaps even smaller. Soyabeans could have reduced wheat plantings this year, suggesting
shrink to a four year low of 76/78m tonnes these key exporters will not make up for northern
at least draw on compared with early hopes of 87m. hemisphere crop shortfalls. .
If that were not enough to contend with, Russia, This combination has predictably seen prices
abundant carryover Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the southeast quarter soar as much as 40% to 50% across the grain
of Europe are suffering their own droughts and and feed markets, with more than a little help
stocks from recent heat pressures, slashing further millions of tonnes from enthusiastic ‘investors’, eager to reprise
off wheat and possibly coarse grain and oilseed the bull market of 2008/09 (when all the major
past, well-supplied harvests too. commodities in this sector set record high prices).
Adding insult to injury, parts of north-west Adding fuel to the fire, US and global consumption
years. Europe have seen record breaking rains, both is not reacting quickly enough to the rise in costs –
in duration and volume which, along with some with maize and soyabeans already trading at their
cold temperatures, have put crops back and highest ever (details below).
threatened quality in the two largest supplying Yet, if the worst-case yield scenarios materialise
countries – France and Germany as well as the in the USA for maize and soya, there is no doubt
UK. Hopefully a break in that weather as we go demand will have to be cut radically to prevent
to press will alleviate this
situation at least, rescuing
the bulk of milling wheat
crops from downgrades
to feed – though for the
next few weeks, these
still hang in the balance.
European rapeseed and
sunflower crops could also
be affected.
India, which a month
ago seemed poised to
enter the world market as
one of the largest wheat
exporters, has meanwhile
been short-changed with its
vital monsoon rains and the
government there may be
32 | July - august 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

3. health like solvents, can it be done outside? people. For example, if tractors, farm vehicles
Alternatively, check the area in question has and other workplace vehicles fall into the
COMMODITIES
adequate ventilation before starting and in
case of the worst case scenario happening,
make sure you have proper emergency
wrong hands, the repercussions can be lethal.
Obviously, these vehicles should be properly
maintained and suitable training given to all
arrangements in place and provide rescue operators.
equipment. Remember, in agriculture the most com-
mon cause of serious and fatal injuries
Getting caught out > involves moving and overturning vehicles.
But it is often the apparently mundane Proper guarding is absolutely vital, for exam-
and routine things that catch people out. ple, to prevent the terrible accidents that
That is why it is so important to constantly can occur with PTO shafts. Incidents occur
check that work areas are free from obstruc- when the vehicle has been left unattended;
tions such as trailing cables and that buildings always check the vehicle braking system and
are kept in good repair. And remember to make sure it is properly maintained. It is also
think about visitors’ safety as well; once they advisable to use the ‘safe stop’ procedure
have set foot on your premises their safety whenever you leave a vehicle; handbrake
becomes your responsibility. Toilet and on and controls in neutral, before turning
welfare facilities should also be provided and the engine off and removing the key. Each
cleaned regularly as well as a clean drinking vehicle and piece of machinery needs to be
water supply maintained. Microbiological assessed against actual conditions of use so
hazards are critical too. It is not just the well that safe systems of work can be put in place.
supplies running out completely well before known zoonotic infections such as brucel-
prices might have to
the end of the season – a so-called ‘negative losis or ring from their the need to maintain
increase worm, but Avoiding falls >
carryover stock situation.’ In reality, stocks recent of the by
awareness$8 peaksthreat of infection from Falls are the second highest cause
will not be allowed to run out because prices animal wastes and other materials that can
a fur ther 25% , i.e. of death in agriculture, but most fall
will cut off demand well before that happens. harbour hazardous micro-organisms.
toward the $10 / injuries can be avoided. To stop your
So the big question being asked as we go to bushel level or higher. farm losing out on time and money as
press is at what price will a satisfactory level Machineryindicated
Wheat, as and vehicles > a result of fall injuries, ensure that all
of ‘rationing’ of supplies occur? For soyabeans above, is the odd man out. While the world
Farm machinery continues to increase work at height is plannedat and close
consumption ratio for wheat the super-
there has been talk of prices having to rise in wheatpower and sophistication. Often it
size, crop may be turning out 15/25m under of the 2012/13 season that began July 1 is
vised, with competent people in charge.
to from their recent near $18/bushel toward is initial forecasts highly as much as 30/40m
complex and – and expensive. Its use Falls often comparedfrom under 15% for
almost 27% happen with roofs, ladders,
$20 or more – a prospect that already has needs tolast year’s, this market can at least draw
under be restricted to trained, competent maize (Sep/Oct season). Even so, once those
vehicles, bale stacks, among others, so it
soya meal – and thus the rest of the oilmeal on abundant carryover stocks from recent wheat stocks (about 197m tonnes) start to
complex- trading at record high prices. Maize past, well-supplied years. In fact the stock/ get seriously diminished, it begs the question,
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July - august 2012 | 19

4. recently traded on and other finance houses are raising medium/
the markets (again, longer term forecasts for feed and food raw
see below for details) materials and bodies like the OECD and FAO
– with demand still are warning about these factors threatening
to be rationed, with rising future prices.
funds and other To some extent, this is all self-fuelling.
‘outside’ speculators However, there is no gainsaying the sheer
possibly only partly uncertainty over current maize and soya crop
aware of the gravity outlooks, the tighter than expected wheat
of t hese su pply supply and the lack of adequate ‘rationing’ of
shortfalls, the grain consumption – mainly for soya and maize. It all
and feed markets are gives little cause for optimism on forward grain
sailing in uncharted and feed costs. This deficit will take time to
waters. Prices reflect sort out, probably another crop year at least,
that, getting more during which any further weather problems
volatile in late July at could find markets sensitive indeed.
these high levels.
how will markets behave without that large
cushion if crops happen to under-perform
Big political decisions may have to be
made – like adjusting the US renewable fuel
Main commodity highlights
again next year? mandate to curb some of the 125m tonnes of since our last review
The prospect is not fanciful. Not only do US maize that now gets sucked into the bio-
Australia and Argentina run the risk of dry fuel sector annually. The government has for Wheat - not running out yet
weather, farmers in the USA – the largest the moment ruled this out but if the crop is Two key factors have dominated wheat
single country producer and exporter of wheat as small as many experts now think, expect trade in the past two months – the rising
– are already starting to worry whether the that decision to be revisited fairly soon. As value of corn and the collapse of wheat crop
legacy of this devastating drought may linger one of our US sources put it, “at the stroke of prospects in the former Soviet Union. Each
into the autumn when next year’s winter a pen, this could send corn prices tumbling.” leg up for US maize futures is immediately
wheat crop is sown. Feed and other ‘traditional’ consumers of reflected in higher wheat prices in the US, in
These three producers are, of course, all key corn will rightly demand some action along Europe and on global wheat export markets.
contributors to the quality end of the bread these lines. Remember, as recently as 2005, The extent of the downturn in former
wheat spectrum. On the plus side, Australia the US only used 33m tonnes of corn for Soviet country crops has clearly surprised
and Canada might expect better pre-harvest ethanol, before Mid-eastern political strife markets thinking back in June that this was
weather than the last two years, raising the and Hurricane Katrina helped the US decide no repeat of 2010 when droughts, heat and
quality component of their next crops. to use this feedstock to cut dependence on wildfires slashed the region’s output to just
One unusual side phenomenon of this bull foreign fossil fuel fuel supplies. 81m from the previous year’s 114m tonnes.
In addition, recent Since then, the total FSU crop forecast has
press repor ts are dropped from 98m to 88.6m tonnes but
surprisingly confident the latest figures coming out of Russia and
that the lat ter Kazakhstan especially now suggest the total
objective – US fuel could again end up closer to 82, even 81m
independence might tonnes. The region enters 2012/13 with about
now be achievable 26m tonnes of carryover stocks – about the
without constantly same as in 2010/11 – so not much real change
raising use of food in that balance. In 2010/11, the main three CIS
commodities for this exporters shipped 13.8m tonnes, down from
pur pose , ins tead 35.8m the year before. This season, USDA
using shale gas and expects them to export 23m - which now
other reserves. One looks rather optimistic - versus last season’s
market is the way that wheat – despite that report this month reckoned these domestic 36.8m. It all sounds familiar. But how important
relatively looser stock/use ratio – has outpaced sources could provide the US with at least is this export drop to the wheat market?
gains in the much tighter maize market. Since 100 years of complete fuel self-sufficiency. Of Firstly, world import needs are already seen
June 1, Chicago wheat futures’ first delivery course, that will not happen overnight and it 13.6m tonnes lower – almost equal to the
month has been up by almost 55% at its would seem unfair and impractical to call time drop in CIS export availability – due to less
recent peak compared with gains for maize on corn ethanol industry without warning. demand from a whole range of countries
of 43% and soyabeans of 33% over the same However, in the context of these emerging led by the EU, China, Egypt, South Korea
period (though soya is 53% over its 2012 low alternatives, the constant need to supply more and Mexico. However, this lower demand
of $11.60/bu). corn for global feed and food consumption, figure might be optimistic too, based in part
This is partly due to wheat having been the need to control food price inflation etc, on reduced feed use of wheat (minus 17m
sold short earlier by speculators looking at one might be forgiven for wondering if corn in total). Will that actually happen if maize
the large carryover stock and partly due to ethanol is becoming an unaffordable luxury for supplies run dangerously low? Expect to
ideas that wheat consumption will boom as a which the writing may be on the wall. see wheat feed forecasts start to rise in the
replacement for maize and, to a lesser extent, Speculators are meanwhile taking more weeks and months ahead and imports with
soya. interest in the grain and oilseed futures them, reducing the bearish impact of the
With final US (and other foreign) crop markets as investments, an unwelcome shrinking world wheat trade factor. However,
losses still to be fully counted – maybe millions development for the consumer, given their even if world trade in wheat does increase,
of tonnes better or worse than the estimates propensity to exaggerate price spikes. Banks the current season’s supply from the main
34 | July - august 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

6. FEATURE
Extruded Bran Sticks – a by-product transformed into flours as well as wheat bran are
valuable food as a rule sold at low prices to
exporters looks adequate at this stage. The the feed manufacturing industry.
USA for one, the world’s leading exporter, The extruder enables also such
can sell the world a fair amount more than ‘by-products’ to be upgraded
the 32.5m forecast by USDA (plus 4.4m into high-grade foods. Both
tonnes) without drawing down its still large by-products can be processed
carryover stocks to risky low levels. We can into breakfast cereals, but are
also expect Canada, Europe and Australia also used in a modified form
(which still has large stocks) to maximise as ingredients in other foods.
export opportunities. Even the CIS countries Bran flakes are highly popular
may yet surprise the markets with a more today. Extruded wheat bran,
exports than the trade expects (somewhere for instance, can fetch double
around the 18/20m mark?). Remember that in the price of wheat bran in its
2010/11 – the Ukraine and Russia responded native form. The opportunities
to the shock of crop losses with what many that wheat bran presents as a
saw as an excessively cautious export policy. concerns, Russian exporters have continued high-grade food are significant.
How far will wheat consumption in feeds rise as
Carrying into 2011/12’s year of crop recovery to make the running on recent world import users look for alternatives dietary and expensive of
The high to tight fiber content
(and accumulating some stocks too), this did deals, making the cheapest offers. Indeed in US maize? wheat bran gives the product an
little for the region’s reputation as a reliable early August, the US, EU and Canada have ‘aura of health’.
Will a disappointing Indian monsoon curb its
supplier. Remember too that the CIS region, hardly got started on their 2012/13 sales (the new export programme – those making all the
The basis for supplies are
especially Russia, has big future plans to US is even running behind targets). products mentioned above is
needed to fill in for shortfalls from ‘Black Sea’
expand its grain trade, especially into Far Still, that hasn’t stopped Chicago wheat wheat producers. flour. This is what the extru-
grain
East Asia where export port infrastructure futures rising to four year and European sion process has in common
Will dry weather worries recede in Australia
is being built up at considerable cost. Provided milling wheat to 17-month highs – prices and Argentinawith conventional bakery proc-
– and will Australia’s quality
domestic cereal/bread prices can be kept that could yet look cheap in a few month’s improve after esses. The difference howevertwo years of weather-damaged
under reasonable control – and their crops time if corn strength continues to fee this crops? lies in the dough texture. The
don’t fall too much further - CIS governments bull market. dough framework of conven-
How high will maize prices go? However, well
might yet take a bolder approach to export supplied, wheattional ignore this trend. based on
can’t bakery goods is
proteins such as gluten and pen-
opportunities than markets are assuming,
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS tosans. The texture of extruded
with a view to future trade, especially toward
the latter end of this season if their 2013 AHEAD Maize could lose 100m tonnes products is based on starch. The
Nobody two months ago could ahave
raw material must have starch
Latest 2012/13 balance = USDA
Are all the content of at least five to ten
expected to the US maize crop to sink as
low as some of the recent estimatesensure a
percent in order to under
Main producers (000 tonnes) ‘Black Sea’ serious consideration. Demandtexture. The
stable end product will have
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
wheat crop to be rationed by price andmay be low,as
protein content pressure, that
is, below ten percent. Flours with
mentioned above, is growing to take some
China 115.2 117.9 118
losses yet such protein contents are typi-
of the strain off traditional users by reducing
cally unsuitable for baking. As the flour price
On the other hand, dough rising can also be a capacity of two metric tons per hour – are demand from the relatively newer corn
EU 135.7 137.4 133 counted? is – among other factors – also influenced by
controlled through specific chemical or physical twice as high in the traditional process as in ethanol sector.
agents. Fluctuations in 81.1 raw material quality the extrusion process. In addition, the extruder Crops in Ukr aine and Russia flours are
FSU the 114.4 88.6 ..or 81/82? It has just adequate the protein content, low-protein ( joint
are easier to balance in the extrusion 29.5
Australia 27.9
process. offers the flexibility required to produce related outputexpensive than high-protein ones. The
26.0 supply but will the less about 32m tonnes) are also under
In addition, it is possible to accurately adjust the products such as baking peas and croutons or stress from thereforeand heatalso inexpensive
EU have adequate extruder drought allows and could go
texture, Canada and particle size.
colour, 23.2 25.3 26.6 given processing line flours to be processed.
even bread chips on a quality – weather by lower, further crimping supplies for export.
Moreover, extrusion is a highly energy-effi- selecting an appropriate configuration.
Argentina 16.1 14.5 12 key this month On the plus side, Europe itself has a good
cient process. The much lower water 694.7
WORLD TOTAL 651.1 contents 665.3 or 657/658? M on InforMatIon:
A big US crop crop ore the way of an estimated 65.5m
in the product formula in comparison to tra- Extrusion increases value of hard tonnes versus last year’s 64.6m and less
with plenty
World end stocks 197.2 197.1 182.4 or 176/177? Christopher Rubin, Bühler AG
ditional production, in conjunction with short generation red winters and thanTel: +41in 2010. That should take some
56m 71 9551111
retention times, ensures low energy costs, Even very dark flours (low-grade flours) of the pressure9553851
improved hard spring Fax: +41 71 of domestic feed users but
especially during subsequent drying. The energy and wheat bran are suitable as raw materials
crops show more promise. It’s interesting wheat prospects may help contain breadwheat prides will still rise in sympathy with the
Email: christopher.rubin@buhlergroup.com
to note that, evenof finished product – based onprices globally.
costs per ton amid all their current crop for processing by the extruder. Low-grade US/global market.
Website: www.buhlergroup.com
36 | July - august 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy | 17
&
Grain feed millinG technoloGy July - august 2012

7. COMMODITIES
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain July - august 2012 | 37

8. How will to sow and grow it. However, that relief will
Maize exports – main suppliers speculators not be coming to the markets until the spring
respond if the of 2013. In the meantime, we can expect
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 US /global maize soya meal prices to remain frisky, especially if
and soya and there is any hint of a Latin American weather
world wheat problem. Fortunately, back-to-back drought
USA 45.3 48 40/30/20? c r o p s co n t i n u e years in the region tend to be rare.
Argentina 15.2 14.5 15.5 to shrink? Believe Soya costs will also be determined by
Brazil 11.6 11 12.5 i t or not , their demand from the top buyer China and
reaction so far has other leading importers of beans and meal.
Ukraine 5 14 14
been descr ibed With soya meal hitting record high prices,
Others 14.8 9.5 15.5 as ‘restrained’ by global demand may be curtailed below the
many pundits. But 181m tonnes forecast by USDA (+5m for
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS they won’t stand by as onlookers if the
prospect of another 20% or 30% on prices
the second year running after leaps of 9m in
both 2009/10 and 2010/11). China – 28% of
AHEAD looks viable. world consumption - has been slow to cut its
demand but recent signs suggest it may be on
How low will the US maize crop go – 300m,
270m, even lower? This factor will probably over-
Oilmeals – supply curbed by the turn lower. Second largest market Europe
is expected to consume about 30m for the
ride all else and influence markets right through to falling crush growth second year in a row. Some Asian and other
the following harvest in 3rd quarter 2013, probably buyers may cut back, however.
preventing major price reversals Weather in August will determine whether In terms of total oilmeals, there are no
the coming US obvious replacements for the soya shortfall
soya crop is 80m with most oilseeds producing similar crops to
or 75m tonnes last year. On the other hand, growth of world
and will thereby demand for protein meals in total slowed over
decide whether the past season to 3.8% from the previous year’s
consumers end 5.1% and the coming season is expected to see
up paying $15/16 growth of just 2.3%. Depending on how supply
or $ 20 -plus and price pan out, growth could be lower still,
per bushel for providing some restraint in this bullish market.
supplies. If the
crop does fall to
the lower end of
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
the scale, prices AHEAD
will be firmer
The contribution to world corn supplies from across the entire oil meal complex. How low will the US soya crop go?
Latin America, Europe, the former Soviet countries On USDA’s assumption of an 83m tonne At what price will demand be rationed? It’s
and India crop, world soya meal production in 2012/13 not happening at $17/bu!
Will the US government trim the renewable (starting this October) will reach 183.5m Chinese consumption and timing of imports
fuel mandate/corn ethanol use – probably if the tonnes against last year’s 177m. Even that will remain and important influence on soya and
crop estimate contracts much further and pipeline entail drawing down quite a lot of carryover other oilmeal costs
stock requirements demand it. stocks from last year’s crops. Clearly the US What size this year’s EU/CIS rapeseed and
Almost forgotten amid the US crop disaster, situation could push the figure well below sunflowerseed crops? Probably not enough
still potential for China to continue much larger 180m. to much sway the bull trend in the dominant
than normal maize imports. The best hope for some price restraint is soya sector.
Will global economic recession curb meat/ that South American soyabean producers, How much will Latin American soya producers
consumption in some developing countries, cap who plant from October onwards, will sow plant this autumn? They could help put the brakes
feed grain demand and help anchor rising grain a far larger crop. The price incentive is there, on escalating soya/oilmeal costs but it’s a long wait
and oilseed costs? they have the land. All they need is the weather till they harvest in Q1 & Q2 2013!
3 good reasons for developing the Siberian market:
ü Novosibirsk, Altai and Omsk have the largest arable lands in Russia
ü Livestock breeding makes up over a quarter of the total volume of Russia
ü A quarter of Russian milk production comes from Siberia
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38 | July - august 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

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Grain &feed millinG technoloGy July - august 2012 | 39

10. This digital Re-print is part of the July | August 2012 edition of Grain & Feed
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