MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.

1. Digital Re-print November | December 2013
Global Feed Markets:
November - December 2013
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2. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Huge corn supplies will
anchor feed costs
Recovering ‘Black
Sea’ (former Soviet
country) crops may
now live up to, even
exceed, their early
promise in terms
of tonnages but
there may be some
quality issues after
wet harvests for
the latter stages of
Russia, Ukrainian
and Kazakh
harvests. The latersown spring wheat
and corn crops will
be most at risk.
46 | november - december 2013
M
ORE good news this month for feed
raw material consumers’ costs: The
world supply outlook for maize seems
to be getting looser by the month,
pushing prices down to yet more historical (33month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the
US crop turned out even bigger than expected in
our last review; the second largest consumer of
maize, China, now appears to be using considerably
less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize,
the USA might also need less than expected as we
move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets
for renewable fuel use.
Markets had been bracing for a bigger US crop
number after consistently stellar yield reports from
the gathering harvest during October and the latest
figure didn’t disappoint – 355m tonnes will be 81.5m
bigger than last year’s crop and even that might not
be the end of this story.
The Chinese news, on the other hand, came more
or less ‘out of the blue’ for a market that has grown
used to ever-expanding estimates of this county’s
feed demand. The lower than expected forecast was
made in the latest global supply/demand estimates
from the US Department of Agriculture which cut
5m off its demand in 2012/13 season (ended Sep 30)
and a further 6m from 2013/14t. The net effect was
to raise the USDA’s forecast for China’s end-season
stocks from 54.8m to 67.5m tonnes – equal to about
40% of the world total carryover.
As a result, world corn stocks next September
are seen rising to about 17.6% of global consumption
needs compared with around 15% over the previous
three seasons. China will be the largest stockholder
(compared with an estimated 48m tonnes in the
US, no mean total either!). However, these large
Chinese supplies are seen mostly ‘off-market,’ held
in the vast strategic reserves that the government
there likes to hold for lean crop years. Some western
analysts even doubt that China’s stocks can really be
that high, or, if they are, whether much of is still in a
useable conditions, some carried over from several
crop years past. Nonetheless, this evident loosening
in its internal supply could indicate that China’s import
needs may not be quite as large - or as urgent - as
markets had assumed during the summer months
when it was first tipped to jump from joint tenth
place (with Indonesia) to number 5 in the world
import league.
Caution towards bullish Chinese maize import
forecast was also demanded by two further
developments. One was its rejection in November of
an arriving US cargo that contained an unauthorized
variety of genetically modified maize, sparking fears
that this could happen again (not many years back,
readers may recollect, there was a lengthy break in
trade caused when unauthorised ‘Starlink’ GM maize
was found in US cargoes). As we went to press, China
had bought almost 4.85m tonnes of US maize but
shipped less than 1.5m tonnes of that. Another factor
was a higher Chinese crop estimate from forecasting
body Lanworth - 220m tonnes compared with the
USDA figure of 211m.
Russia’s maize crop has also been increased,
from 9m to 11.5m tonnes which
some observers see releasing maybe
as much as 3.5m tonnes of exports
(against 2m in recent years and very
little before that). However, the much
bigger factor in that region remains
Ukraine whose record 29/30m tonne
crop is expected to allow exports of
at least 18m, compared with 12.7m
last season and its normal average 5m
tonnes in recent years. Ukraine has
already exported around 5m tonnes
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain

3. COMMODITIES
from a crop that has barely finished harvest
and during November, shipped its highest
weekly total ever at 969,500 tonnes. Like the
Latin American countries throughout the past
few months, Ukraine has set the price bar low
for other feedgrain exporters. However, the
drop in US futures prices has now made the
traditional largest supplier of corn competitive
on fob terms with most of its rivals for first
quarter 2014 shipments onward.
As noted in our last issue, the corn crop
bounty has extended to the EU too, where
production is expected to expand by about
6.5m tonnes to over 65m. So far this has had
less effect than might have been expected in
bringing down EU corn prices, mainly because
the French harvest has been slowed by
excessive rain. Even in mid-November, this
had reached just 58% completion versus 88%
at the same time last year. Once the harvest is
done and attention turns fully on the Ukrainian
competition, prices here may well come under
further downward pressure..
At this stage, EU corn consumption in
2013/14 is seen more or less level with last
season’s around 70m tonne. Imports – again
with a heavy emphasis on Ukrainian supplies
– are expected to drop by about 3m tonnes
but will remain relatively high compared with
recent years at some 8m.
Like other consumers, Europe will remain
tempted by corn prices that have recently
undercut feed grade wheat on world import
markets by as much as $60 per tonne. The gap
between wheat and maize prices is even wider
on the US futures markets – over $2.20 per
bushel or about $72/tonne on the spot months
compared with just $20 this time last year.
US maize prices have been pushed down
by the large domestic crop, the foreign export
competition and a past season of lower
demand in its own feed and ethanol sectors.
Both were expected to show some revival
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain
in 2014 in response to
the halving of corn costs
and higher renewable
fuel use mandates set some years back. During
November, the US government confirmed it was
proposing to lower these, including a cut in next
year’s RF mandate. Although the breakdown in
cuts for fuel types is not yet clear, some trade
houses offered initial calculations that this could
put US maize consumption for ethanol 7.5/15m
tonnes below what the market assumed from
the earlier targets. However, others have played
down the impact, suggesting the changes will
have greater impact on so-called ‘advanced’
biofuels like soya diesel, rather than corn ethanol.
Better profitability in the bio-ethanol sector
after the drop in the corn price (and a rise in
ethanol values to five-month highs) may also
continue to support production that has been
buoyant recently by these factors, along with
the industry’s ambitions to export more. In
summary, the outlook for corn ethanol use is a
bit of a grey area, if a potentially bearish influence.
Latin America’s contribution to global corn
exports is seen smaller in the coming year by
the USDA which pitches the Argentine crop
500,000 tonnes lower at 26m but Brazil’s
11m smaller at 70m on the assumption that
producers have sown/will sow more soyabeans
and that Brazil is unlikely to get the unusually high
yields it had from its Safrinhas (second-sowing)
crop maize. Despite that, the Brazilian figure is
probably too cautious. Local analyst Safras e
Mercado, for example, recently put the crop
at 75.2m. It might also be remembered that
the USDA started out estimating last season’s
crop at 70m too. It ended up at 81m. Either way,
though, there will be no shortage of maize in
the season ahead, when world export trade is
expected to reach a record 109m tonnes, (up
10m) even as the global carryover stock piles up.
The tail end of the maize supply outlook
might be a little less bearish. Many analysts
are currently predicting US farmers will cut
plantings next spring in response to the price
drop and consequent better returns from
soyabeans (which will move into this empty
land). Weather will, as always, also play a part
in that sowing campaign, good conditions
favouring early sowings and larger maize areas,
weather delays favouring more soyabeans,
which can be planted later. On the other hand,
Russia and Ukraine have land left vacant by
unfulfilled winter wheat planting intentions, the
bulk of which is expected to go to maize. That
suggests an even bigger contribution from the
CIS countries next year, weather permitting.
In the meantime, futures markets are not
pre-empting any shortages arising from lower
US or South American plantings. As far out
as December 2014, the maize price is trading
around $4.60/bu or about $180/tonne. That’s
less than 8% over the current very low spot price.
It has been an odd couple of months for
the wheat market which, despite a surge in
October to four-month highs of near $7/bu
($257/t) on the CBOT futures market has also
been frequently tempted to test the low side,
ranging down to the $6.30’s ($235/t).
On the supply side of the market, the main
changes in recent weeks have centred on the
expected trimming of CIS crops after rain delays
to their harvests. Russia’s is now assumed to
be down by about 2.5m from earlier forecasts
at 51.5m while Kazakhstan’s has been cut by
1.5m to 15.5m. However, these, in combination
with Ukraine’s, are still good crops compared
with last year’s very disappointing results (the
three in total at 89m tonnes are up by about
16m allowing exports of 34m compared with
last year’s 25.5m tonnes. Their combined
wheat stocks carried into next season are also
expected to rise by about 2m tonnes to around
november - december 2013 | 47

4. compared with as low as
$245/250 back in the late
summer months. Ukraine has
also been getting well sold, its
export offers also moved up
with Russian wheat, allowing
EU, US and other exporters
to grab a larger share of the
going import business (see
below). However, India has a
huge exportable surplus this year, poor storage
and another probable record crop on the way.
With world prices now coming within its reach
(its domestic prices had been too high to
export without subsidy), it has begun to release
more wheat and will likely prove a formidable
competitor in the months ahead, probably filling
any Russian or Ukrainian gaps and helping to
slow 1
Page the ascent in international prices.
Other notable developments since our last
review include a big uprating of the Canadian
crop, now seen at a record 33.2m tonnes versus
last season’s 27.2m. This makes the USDA’s
forecast of a 3m tonne increase to 21.5m in
this season’s Canadian exports look a little
conservative.
The EU crop has also outdone all the early
forecasts and is now rated by the USDA at 143m
tonnes versus last year’s 133.6m although some
16.5m. That’s still way under the 27m carried in
private forecasts for 2013 are several million
from the bumper 2011 harvests but welcome
tonnes larger still.
nonetheless to the bear camp.
However, the rise in prices that the wheat
Russia does seem to be running low on
market saw in October was less of a response
to old crop news than to delays in sowing the
adequate export quality wheat now and has
embarked on a state purchasing programme
next batch of CIS wheat crops for harvest 2014.
to rebuild its depleted stocks. This has allowed
At one stage, things looked pretty grim amid
its export prices to creep up in recent weeks
talk of major cutbacks to sowings across the
to around $285/tonne 30/8/13 ports
region and late sowings at greater risk of poor
FIAAPisland:Layout 1 for Black Sea14:26
or non-germination and high ‘winterkill.’
However, planting estimates have
improved with drier weather in the last
few weeks and will not be as far under
the 2013 totals as earlier expected.
Also a spell of unusually mild weather
after all the rain has got sown crops off
to a rapid start across the CIS region.
The longer this continues, the better
chance of reasonable survival rates into
the spring although the lack of snow
cover was beginning to make a few
observers fret as we went to press.
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
If the CIS countries are to make
a smaller contribution to next year’s
wheat supplies, there will be some
mitigating factors. In the USA, the
largest exporting country, winter wheat
sowings are estimated to have risen
by about 3-4%, while crops are in far
better condition than at this time last
year, when large areas of the wheat belt
were suffering droughts (at one stage
recently, almost twice as much wheat
was rated ‘good/excellent'). If the
weather stays favourable over the next
six months that could mean big yields
and a bumper US crop. EU winter
wheat sowings are also estimated
to have increased for harvest 2014
and are similarly blessed with largely
favourable weather – certainly no lack
of rain in the main western European
grain belt and a relatively late start to
cold weather, promoting good growth
pre-dormancy.
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Southern hemisphere crops have
presented a slightly more bullish story.
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Supported by
A combination of low sowings (blamed
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on government export controls) and
ASEAN Feed Summit
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unfavourable weather is expected
Specialist conferences
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The exhibition will be supported
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the ‘Big five’ regular wheat exports –
They will include:
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48 | november - december 2013
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain

5. COMMODITIES
to as little as 3.5m. from last year’s 7.5m and the year).
previous season’s near 12m tonnes.
This rapid rate
This gap in southern hemisphere supply of disappearance
has already turned Argentina’s customers – is one of the main
especially Brazil, the world’s second largest factors holding up
wheat importer – to North America for prices on both the
supplies, with supportive effect on US/Canadian US and EU markets,
hard wheat export prices.
especially the latter.
Australia’s harvest results to date (around Even so, the relative
20-30% complete) have also been a bit adequacy of overall
disappointing, achieving lower than expected supply – and the lack of a major weather threat to 88.66m. Planting of the next Latin American
proteins (one forecast saw two thirds of yet to 2014 global output is at this stage allowing crops, for harvested first quarter 2014 has
the harvest grading 11.5% or lower). Some the distant futures price of wheat to run at only progressed under favourable conditions.
Australian sources also expect more of this a small premium to the spot market – the EU’s Record large areas are being sown there and
season’s surplus to go to rebuilding stocks that even portraying slightly cheaper prices into 2015. ideal weather has got things off to a flying
were used last year to maintain strong exports
Finally onto oilmeal markets, where all the start. The USDA sees regional output rising
in a year of lower production. Crop estimates supply news so far is no less encouraging for to 156m tonnes from last year’s 146m (and
have ranged from as much as 28m (probably consumers. The US soyabean crop estimate just 112m in 2011/12) while some local analysts
far too high now) to 23.5m tonnes. Yet even has recently been raised by30/8/13 tonnes Page 1the total to exceed 160m. With the
VICTAMisland:Layout 1 almost 3m 14:22 expect
the lowest figure would, be bigger than
last year’s and large enough to maintain
a full export programme.
Overall, there should be no shortage
of wheat supplies going forward which
is just as well in a season when global
trade is expected to expand by about
4-5m tonnes to 152m – its second
highest level ever.
The main factor, as outlined in our
earlier reviews, has been the explosion
in Chinese import needs from less than
3m over the past two years (little more
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
than 1m before that) to a forecast
8-9m tonnes this season. Demand
has also been forecast higher into
the top importer Egypt (9.5m vs last
year’s 8.3m tonnes and a more normal
10/5/11m before its political/economic
crisis). Iran may also take more wheat
with the easing of trade sanctions in
the wake of its recent nuclear nonproliferation agreement.
Aside of these seasonal forecasts,
there has recently been a lot of
evidence that international buyers are
already finding wheat better value since
it forsook the $350/450 (soft & hard
wheat respectively) levels of this time
last year for prices closer to $280/340
(see charts).
The past month or so especially has
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november - december 2013 | 49

6. bigger US crop that puts world soyabean
supply up by 16-20m tonnes, equal to an
additional 12.5/16m tonnes of soya meal if all
were crushed. The USDA currently sees meal
output up by a more conservative 11m tonnes,
the rest of the extra soyabean supply going to
build global stocks carried into 2014/15. At a
record 70m tonnes these will be more than
Brazil has produced in some recent years.
This surplus may not yet been fully factored
into soyabean prices at $12/13 per bushel.
But either way, if consumers need more meal
than currently estimated, the supplies should
be there to crush.
Other oilseed crops have also turned
out higher than expected. The world
sunflowerseed output estimate has been
raised by 1m to 42.8m tonnes, rapeseed
by 1.5m to almost 68m, putting total world
oilseed production at 280m tonnes or about
25.5m over last year’s. Not surprisingly, the
forward futures markets point to lower
prices in this sector with both beans and
meal seen about 13% cheaper next autumn
than now. Soyabeans are already 25-30%
cheaper than the record peak prices they
reached in the autumn of 2012 (just under
$18/bu).
KEY FACTORS AHEAD –
WHEAT
Will ‘Black Sea’ (former Soviet countries)
crops have a normal, mild or harsh winter?
Planted areas are down and a lot of the crop
went in late but it has been mild so far and there
is no lack of soil moisture – unlike some recent
years. Provided they get some snow protection,
production may not be so far under this year’s
adequate level.
50 | november - december 2013
How much more of their 2013 crops will
Black sea countries want to export? A brisk
early season sales campaign, some emergent
quality deficiencies in Russia, Moscow’s plan to
rebuild reserve stocks - plus some unease in
government circles about next year’s crop after
late, downsized plantings - might all conspire to
encourage a cautious export policy from now
on. That would mean less price discounting to
win foreign deals.
But if the CIS countries do go into export
retreat, India should be able to fill a lot of any
gaps resulting in world supplies. It may not
have top quality but it does have an awful lot
of surplus wheat – much of it in risky poor
storage – and another probable record crop
on the way. So Indian exports could help cap
rallies in international wheat prices.
Europe’s breakneck early-season export
campaign shows no sign of letting up as we go
to press. But at this stage, there seems no danger
of the domestic market running out of wheat.
Plantings for next year’s crop are up, weather
so far promising.
Cheap corn
competition
from Ukraine
especially, $60/80
per tonne under
feedwheat,
should also help
cap the low
quality end of the
wheat market. A
record world
maize crop will
keep wheat use
in feeds below the peak level of two years ago.
But food, bio-fuel and other outlets will still add
about 3.5%, or 24m tonnes to world total wheat
consumption in 2013/14. That continues to mean
only modest stock growth but the global wheat
inventory will still be more than adequate as a
percent of consumption.
The USA, Canada, Australia, even Argentina,
with its weather problems, all still have wheat to
export going into the second half of the 2013/14
season. So importers do have choices.
Markets could get excited again about
Chinese imports taking more of the world
export supply. China’s own crop needs more
rain and its domestic prices are at record
highs, way above the world price of wheat.
Iran could import a lot more with the easing of
trade sanctions but top buyer Egypt’s demand
is uncertain amid its financial problems.
Quality remains a potentially live issue.
Canadian, Australian and French proteins
may be below average in a year when
Argentine wheat availability is halved. But
so far, benchmarks like the North American
hard wheats are holding prices steady at levels
considerably cheaper than at this time last
year.
COARSE GRAINS
The US maize crop is much larger than
expected and this will loosen both US and world
carryover stocks considerably over the coming
year – but there are some wild cards on the
consumption side.
US exports are running ahead of USDA
forecasts. If that pace continues, stocks may not
be quite so large but may still be burdensome
enough to depress US and world prices.
US feed use of maize is expected to recover
somewhat in the year ahead. January quarterly
stock figures will shed some light on the extent
of this trend.
US ethanol demand for maize (40% of
consumption) was expected to rise 5.4% this
season – before the government proposed
curbing bio-fuel blending.
Strong exporter competition will continue for
maize import trade – from Ukraine and Russia
initially and, into first quarter 2014, from South
American crops – whose potential might be
under-rated – but weather there needs to be
watched in the months ahead.
The US is expected by many observers to
sow significantly less maize in 2014 in response
to this season’s surplus, the near halving of prices
and the relatively better returns to be had from
soy beans.
But CIS countries could sow more in the
spring on failed winter wheat lands, raising
export supplies to new rercord levels.
Will China remain a key maize importer,
helping to soak up some of the world surplus?
The biggest crops opf barley and sorghum
for four and five years respectively add to this
season’s abundant feed grain supply.
OILMEALS/PROTEINS
Latin American soya crop weather will be
the main focus in the months ahead. If it stays
as favourable as recently, crops will be record
large and should pressure prices lower for soya
meal and the entire oilmeal complex.
China will remain top factor on the demand
side of the soya/oilmeal equation but its
purchases are likely to switch soon from US
to cheaper Latin American new crop supplies.
Big EU and CIS rapeseed and sunflowerseed
and Canadian canola crops are adding to the
abundance of oil meals implied by record
soyabean production. But will these producers
grow less in 2014?
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