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How to Profit from Biogas
    Market Developments

                                 GIA Industries White Paper




June 2010
Global Intelligence Alliance©2010. All rights reserved.
Contact:         info@globalintelligence.com                  www.globalintelligence.com
Table of contents

This contains excerpts from GIA’s “How to Profit from Biogas Market
Developments” White Paper. For the free white paper, please visit
www.globalintelligence.com or email info@globalintelligence.com.

Executive Summary                                                           5
Global Outlook                                                              8
Market Characteristics – Europe                                            16
Market Characteristics – USA, Asia Pacific          Not included here
Conclusions                                         Not included here
Appendix                                            Not included here

                                              www.globalintelligence.com
                                                                            2
Introduction


•  The global megatrends such as climate change are driving the
   increased adoption of renewable energy sources in general, whereas
   the price volatility, supply issues and environmental hazards of fossil
   fuel production are about to accelerate the pace in the investments of
   non-fossil fuels production in particular.
•  Biogas, the most sustainable of biofuels, is in a starting point of an
   exponential market growth curve.
•  This paper will cover the latest developments and future scenarios of
   the rapidly developing biogas business, starting with a global outlook
   and going through special market characteristics of Europe, USA and
   Asia Pacific.


                                                     www.globalintelligence.com
Concepts and abbreviations

Anaerobic Digestion      Anaerobic metabolic processes caused through
                         microbial enzymatic activities

AD                       Anaerobic digester. An istallation to produce biogas
                         with anaerobic digestion of organic material

Biogas                   A combination of methane, CO2 and trace gases
                         released during anaerobic digestion

Distributed Generation   Generating electricity from many small sources

WWTF                     Wastewater treatment facility

FIT                      Feed in tariffs


                                                         www.globalintelligence.com 4
Executive Summary




                    www.globalintelligence.com
Executive Summary

A company with the right expertise and timing can capture it’s share of the
billions that are invested in the infrastructure in the coming years


       Primary profiteers of biogas industry growth
                                                                         Under an optimistic
 •  Anaerobic digester providers, especially those in Asia today         scenario, the 2 Billion
 •  Biogas condensation and upgrade technology developers                EUR plant installations
 •  Centralized and specialized plants producing, utilizing and          business to grow up to 25
    distributing biogas                                                  Billion by 2020.



                                                           Secondary profiteers

Global suppliers to profit out            •    Suppliers of power plants and process equipment
  of increased demand for                 •    Maintenance, service and certification businesses
 components, services and                 •    Companies specialized in environmental management
          chemicals                       •    Chemical companies developing the production yield
                                               and efficiency

                                                                        www.globalintelligence.com 6
Executive Summary

As a global trend, the larger sites will improve the efficiency of power
generation, profitability of biogas upgrade and the utilization of by-products

                            “Laws similar to German model have lead to
                            growth in other markets as well.”
                            Andrea Horbelt, European Biogas Association



   The US market to                  European                                        Asia will be the
   provide innovative             companies and                                    main growth area,
    applications and            technologies will be                              installing basic sites
     new business                the ones to watch                                  on WWTF’s and
         models                 between 2010-2015                                         landfills

                            “Price volatility of gas and oil will be the main
                            drivers for the biogas industry; a sufficient
                            price increase of gas and oil will make biogas
                            profitable everywhere!”
                            Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas Association

                                                                                www.globalintelligence.com
Global Outlook




                 www.globalintelligence.com
Global megatrends drive the biogas growth



                   Biogas industry growth




    Unevitable end of    Climate change   Increased utilization
    fossil oil and gas                    of technology



                                            www.globalintelligence.com   9
Biogas – what’s in it for me? (1/2)

A chance to reduce both organic methane and fossile CO2 in the atmosphere


Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions


                          CO2 from
                      deforestation etc.
                            20 %             Methane, key component of             A chance to
                                             biogas is 21 times a more             profit out of
                               Methane       powerful greenhouse gas than          emissions trade
                                14 %                                               carbon credits
                                             CO2 . During the incineration
   CO2 from fossil
                                Nitrous                                            and government
    fuels 57 %                               of biogas, methane is turned
                               oxide 8 %                                           subsidies
                                             into CO2 and water, thus
                       Others 1%             reducing the negative
                                             impact to the climate.

Source: US Environmental Protection Agency



                                                                         www.globalintelligence.com 10
Biogas – what’s in it for me? (2/2)

A chance to reduce both organic methane and fossile CO2 in the atmosphere


Global Primary Energy Production


            Solid fossil fuels                                                                         A ready-to-use,
                                             Due to the identical
                  25 %
                                                                                                       economically
                                             chemical composition
                                 Natural                                                               sustainable source
                                             (methane) upgraded biogas
                                  Gas                                                                  of energy and a
                                             an be used as an alternative
                                  23 %                                                                 superior second
      Oil 37%                                to all existing natural gas
                                                                                                       generation
                        Nuclear 6%           applications
                                                                                                       transportation fuel!
                  Renewables,
                hydro and other 9
                       %
                                             “Biogas has better yield per Ha than ethanol or
                                             biodiesel, making it the most sustainable of biofuels.”
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency
                                             Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas Association


                                                                                              www.globalintelligence.com 11
Agriculture shows greatest potential in biogas

     75 %* of the biogas potential is in the                                17%* in municipal                      8%* in sewage
 anaerobic digestion of agricultural crops, by-                                 and industrial                          WWTF’s
            products and manure                                                 organic waste




* The higher utilization rate of farmland as an energy resource could increase the share of manure, agricultural crops and by-products to
85%, leaving organic waste a 10% and WWTF’s a 5% share

Source: Biomass Magazine, Global Water Intelligence, American Biogas Council, Frost And Sullivan, European Biomass Association,
Eurostat, Iowa State University


                                                                                                      www.globalintelligence.com 12
Current bottleneck of improved biogas
utilization is the cost of upgrade technologies

                                                  Biogas
                                                                          Fed into existing
                                                upgrade into
                                                 equivalent                networks / used
       Agriculture                              with natural                directly as a
         75%                  Anaerobic             gas                  transportation fuel
                              Digestion

                     WWTF
                      17%
                                                                         Combined heat &
            Landfill                                                        energy
              8%

                                                                           Household use



To date only   7%       of the plants in Germany are feeding the gas directly in
the existing natural gas network.
                                                               www.globalintelligence.com

                                                                                            13
Global players to aim at technology and
services to secure profit & positive image
                                         Reproducable technologies and services for
Drivers and constraints                  locally operating biogas producers:

                                         •  Improvement of solid waste and sewage
      •  Climate change                     treatment processes

      •  The end of fossil oil and gas
                                         •  Process development of anaerobic digestion
      •  Increased utilization of
         technology                      •  Technolology for the production of heat and
                                            energy out of biogas

      •  Lack of long term subsidies     •  Upgrade of biogas to suit existing natural gas
      •  ”Food to energy” in                applications
         developing countries
                                         •  Installations to extract chemicals such as CO2
      •  “No in my backyard” effect
                                         •  Condensation of upgraded biogas into liquid
                                            biogas
                                                                  www.globalintelligence.com 14
With many potential routes to market, where do
companies target limited resources?

      Raw              Upstream     Biogas             Biogas       Downstream
                                                                                       End User
     Materials         Logistics   Production         Upgrade        Logistics




    Improvement of solid               Process development of              Technology for the
    waste and sewage                   anaerobic digestion:                production of heat and
1   treatment processes:           2                                 3     energy out of biogas:
    Where does it take place           Is there a technology jump          What size of power plants
    today?                             in sight?                           is required?



    Upgrade of biogas to suit          Installations to extract            Condensation of
    existing natural gas               chemicals such as CO2:              upgraded biogas into
4   applications:                  5                                 6     liquid biogas:
    Will there be biogas               Is this a business                  Who to profit out of higher
    refineries?                        opportunity?                        energy concentration?

                                                                         www.globalintelligence.com 15
Market Characteristics

Europe




                         www.globalintelligence.com
The EU-wide targets to fight the climate change
and the existing infrastructure boost the business

•  A target to reduce
   greenhouse gases by                         •  Arable land available
   20% by 2020                                    also for non-food
                                                  plants
•  Transportation fuels      Biogas capacity
   need to be blended with    worth over 2     •  High tech industry
   renewables at an          modern nuclear       players in energy,
   accelerated rate           power plants        chemistry and
                                                  automotive industry
•  The initiatives are
   implemented through                         •  A well-established
   national legislation                           natural gas network


      EU Targets                                    Infrastructure


                                               www.globalintelligence.com 17
Germany, the biogas market leader, runs half
of Europe’s 9,000 biogas plants
 •  Most of the gas is currently
    produced by independent            Key outcomes of the German model
    farmers out of biomass
                                       1.  Process know-how & global players in the
 •  A feed-in tariff (FIT) ensures a       biogas plant installations market eg. Envitec
    reasonable payback time for            Biogas, Schmack Biogas and Biogas Nord
    investments (4-5 years)
                                       2.  The rural areas have a new source of
 •  Existing natural gas network           income and jobs as the profitability of the
    accepts upgraded biogas                agriculture in general is decreasing

                                       3.  Other European countries are starting to
 •  Larger, more centralized
                                           copy the German model
    sites are being built

 •  Biogas as a transportation
    fuel is tax free

Source: Biomass Magazine
                                                               www.globalintelligence.com 18
Subsidies and country-specific strategies

                                               Sweden: Innovation
    FIT’s exist in most EU countries - their   •  Community buses
      efficiency is rated 7 times higher to       increasingly using biogas
            other government support           •  Liquid biogas to enable long distance

                               +
     Second generation biofuels such as
                                                  transportation
                                               •  Technologies to extract chemicals out
                                                  of biogas
    ethanol and biodiesel are blended with
         fossil fuels. The existing fuel
      distribution infrastructure supports     Poland today is
              liquid fuels over gas.           “Germany in 1990”
                                               •  Limited biogas production
                                               •  Excessive food production and wealthy
                                                  resources of arable land
            The utilization of biogas as a     •  Good infrastructure and an existing
          transportation fuel is neglected        natural gas network in place
                                               •  A need to find alternatives for imported
                                                  natural gas
Source: Biocycle, Biomass Magazine
                                                              www.globalintelligence.com 19
A bright future for European high tech players

 The market in Europe to                                                                   The scope in the
                                                                  More countries        business to shift from
 grow at a two-digit rate.                                        adopt biogas in        power generation to
                                                                   transportation         gas and chemicals
 The main growth will take
 place in refinery
 projects and >1MW
 power plants.                                           Price of fossil fuels
                                                                                                      Plants grow and
                                                       increases while biogas
                                                                                                         centralize
                                                        upgrade gets cheaper
 The share of exports
 will increase from the
 current 10 -15%.
                                                                     Development of           New players
                                                                       equipment,             enter market
                                                                   enzymes, chemicals
                                                                     and know-how


Source: Global Water Intelligence, Helmut Kaiser Consultancy
                                                                                        www.globalintelligence.com
                                                                                                                        20
Country trends highlighted by industry experts
“There’s a biogas boom in the UK. Poland
and Ukraine (non-EU) are showing growth.
Swedish market is interesting due to
innovations.
                                           “Italy is a possible growing market in
Germany potentially to replace 10-20% of   regards of biogas utilization in
natural gas with biogas.”
                                           transportation, Sweden as well –
Jukka Rintala, Jyväskylä University        City buses running on natural gas.
                                           UK, France, Spain & Italy adopting
                                           parts of the German model.”
                                           Andrea Horbelt, European Biogas
                                           Association
“Poland has lot’s of plans and
potential but so far not that much
action. Denmark and Norway are
rising, so is Sweden, at a high level.”
Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas
Association




Source: GIA Survey
                                              www.globalintelligence.com 21
Thank You for Your
Attention


These slides are excerpts from            Contact Us
the GIA White Paper: “How to
Profit from Biogas Market                 For additional information about the
Developments”.                            Global Intelligence Alliance and our
                                          services, please send email to
                                          info@globalintelligence.com or log on
Download the entire White Paper           to the GIA website for the contact
                                          information of the GIA company
for Free                                  nearest to you.

The report has been published under the
GIA White Paper series at
www.globalintelligence.com.



                                                         www.globalintelligence.com
About GIA




            www.globalintelligence.com
GIA is a strategic market Intelligence
and advisory group

Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA) was formed in 1995
when a team of market intelligence specialists,
management consultants, industry analysts and
technology experts came together to build a powerful
suite of customized solutions ranging from outsourced
market monitoring services and software, to strategic
analysis and advisory.


Today, we are the preferred partner for organizations
seeking to understand, compete and grow in
international markets. Our industry expertise and
coverage of over 100 countries enables our customers
to make better informed decisions worldwide.




                                                        www.globalintelligence.com
Access local knowledge in over
100 countries

  GIA Group has 12 offices on 4 continents.
  Together with affiliated GIA Member
  companies, certified GIA Research Partners
  and consultants, GIA provides access to
  local knowledge in over 100 countries.

  All GIA Network companies adhere to GIA’s
  Research and Analysis Quality System as
  well as the SCIP Code of Ethics.




                                               www.globalintelligence.com - page 25
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How to Profit from Biogas Market Developments

  • 1. How to Profit from Biogas Market Developments GIA Industries White Paper June 2010 Global Intelligence Alliance©2010. All rights reserved. Contact: info@globalintelligence.com www.globalintelligence.com
  • 2. Table of contents This contains excerpts from GIA’s “How to Profit from Biogas Market Developments” White Paper. For the free white paper, please visit www.globalintelligence.com or email info@globalintelligence.com. Executive Summary 5 Global Outlook 8 Market Characteristics – Europe 16 Market Characteristics – USA, Asia Pacific Not included here Conclusions Not included here Appendix Not included here www.globalintelligence.com 2
  • 3. Introduction •  The global megatrends such as climate change are driving the increased adoption of renewable energy sources in general, whereas the price volatility, supply issues and environmental hazards of fossil fuel production are about to accelerate the pace in the investments of non-fossil fuels production in particular. •  Biogas, the most sustainable of biofuels, is in a starting point of an exponential market growth curve. •  This paper will cover the latest developments and future scenarios of the rapidly developing biogas business, starting with a global outlook and going through special market characteristics of Europe, USA and Asia Pacific. www.globalintelligence.com
  • 4. Concepts and abbreviations Anaerobic Digestion Anaerobic metabolic processes caused through microbial enzymatic activities AD Anaerobic digester. An istallation to produce biogas with anaerobic digestion of organic material Biogas A combination of methane, CO2 and trace gases released during anaerobic digestion Distributed Generation Generating electricity from many small sources WWTF Wastewater treatment facility FIT Feed in tariffs www.globalintelligence.com 4
  • 5. Executive Summary www.globalintelligence.com
  • 6. Executive Summary A company with the right expertise and timing can capture it’s share of the billions that are invested in the infrastructure in the coming years Primary profiteers of biogas industry growth Under an optimistic •  Anaerobic digester providers, especially those in Asia today scenario, the 2 Billion •  Biogas condensation and upgrade technology developers EUR plant installations •  Centralized and specialized plants producing, utilizing and business to grow up to 25 distributing biogas Billion by 2020. Secondary profiteers Global suppliers to profit out •  Suppliers of power plants and process equipment of increased demand for •  Maintenance, service and certification businesses components, services and •  Companies specialized in environmental management chemicals •  Chemical companies developing the production yield and efficiency www.globalintelligence.com 6
  • 7. Executive Summary As a global trend, the larger sites will improve the efficiency of power generation, profitability of biogas upgrade and the utilization of by-products “Laws similar to German model have lead to growth in other markets as well.” Andrea Horbelt, European Biogas Association The US market to European Asia will be the provide innovative companies and main growth area, applications and technologies will be installing basic sites new business the ones to watch on WWTF’s and models between 2010-2015 landfills “Price volatility of gas and oil will be the main drivers for the biogas industry; a sufficient price increase of gas and oil will make biogas profitable everywhere!” Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas Association www.globalintelligence.com
  • 8. Global Outlook www.globalintelligence.com
  • 9. Global megatrends drive the biogas growth Biogas industry growth Unevitable end of Climate change Increased utilization fossil oil and gas of technology www.globalintelligence.com 9
  • 10. Biogas – what’s in it for me? (1/2) A chance to reduce both organic methane and fossile CO2 in the atmosphere Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 from deforestation etc. 20 % Methane, key component of A chance to biogas is 21 times a more profit out of Methane powerful greenhouse gas than emissions trade 14 % carbon credits CO2 . During the incineration CO2 from fossil Nitrous and government fuels 57 % of biogas, methane is turned oxide 8 % subsidies into CO2 and water, thus Others 1% reducing the negative impact to the climate. Source: US Environmental Protection Agency www.globalintelligence.com 10
  • 11. Biogas – what’s in it for me? (2/2) A chance to reduce both organic methane and fossile CO2 in the atmosphere Global Primary Energy Production Solid fossil fuels A ready-to-use, Due to the identical 25 % economically chemical composition Natural sustainable source (methane) upgraded biogas Gas of energy and a an be used as an alternative 23 % superior second Oil 37% to all existing natural gas generation Nuclear 6% applications transportation fuel! Renewables, hydro and other 9 % “Biogas has better yield per Ha than ethanol or biodiesel, making it the most sustainable of biofuels.” Source: US Environmental Protection Agency Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas Association www.globalintelligence.com 11
  • 12. Agriculture shows greatest potential in biogas 75 %* of the biogas potential is in the 17%* in municipal 8%* in sewage anaerobic digestion of agricultural crops, by- and industrial WWTF’s products and manure organic waste * The higher utilization rate of farmland as an energy resource could increase the share of manure, agricultural crops and by-products to 85%, leaving organic waste a 10% and WWTF’s a 5% share Source: Biomass Magazine, Global Water Intelligence, American Biogas Council, Frost And Sullivan, European Biomass Association, Eurostat, Iowa State University www.globalintelligence.com 12
  • 13. Current bottleneck of improved biogas utilization is the cost of upgrade technologies Biogas Fed into existing upgrade into equivalent networks / used Agriculture with natural directly as a 75% Anaerobic gas transportation fuel Digestion WWTF 17% Combined heat & Landfill energy 8% Household use To date only 7% of the plants in Germany are feeding the gas directly in the existing natural gas network. www.globalintelligence.com 13
  • 14. Global players to aim at technology and services to secure profit & positive image Reproducable technologies and services for Drivers and constraints locally operating biogas producers: •  Improvement of solid waste and sewage •  Climate change treatment processes •  The end of fossil oil and gas •  Process development of anaerobic digestion •  Increased utilization of technology •  Technolology for the production of heat and energy out of biogas •  Lack of long term subsidies •  Upgrade of biogas to suit existing natural gas •  ”Food to energy” in applications developing countries •  Installations to extract chemicals such as CO2 •  “No in my backyard” effect •  Condensation of upgraded biogas into liquid biogas www.globalintelligence.com 14
  • 15. With many potential routes to market, where do companies target limited resources? Raw Upstream Biogas Biogas Downstream End User Materials Logistics Production Upgrade Logistics Improvement of solid Process development of Technology for the waste and sewage anaerobic digestion: production of heat and 1 treatment processes: 2 3 energy out of biogas: Where does it take place Is there a technology jump What size of power plants today? in sight? is required? Upgrade of biogas to suit Installations to extract Condensation of existing natural gas chemicals such as CO2: upgraded biogas into 4 applications: 5 6 liquid biogas: Will there be biogas Is this a business Who to profit out of higher refineries? opportunity? energy concentration? www.globalintelligence.com 15
  • 16. Market Characteristics Europe www.globalintelligence.com
  • 17. The EU-wide targets to fight the climate change and the existing infrastructure boost the business •  A target to reduce greenhouse gases by •  Arable land available 20% by 2020 also for non-food plants •  Transportation fuels Biogas capacity need to be blended with worth over 2 •  High tech industry renewables at an modern nuclear players in energy, accelerated rate power plants chemistry and automotive industry •  The initiatives are implemented through •  A well-established national legislation natural gas network EU Targets Infrastructure www.globalintelligence.com 17
  • 18. Germany, the biogas market leader, runs half of Europe’s 9,000 biogas plants •  Most of the gas is currently produced by independent Key outcomes of the German model farmers out of biomass 1.  Process know-how & global players in the •  A feed-in tariff (FIT) ensures a biogas plant installations market eg. Envitec reasonable payback time for Biogas, Schmack Biogas and Biogas Nord investments (4-5 years) 2.  The rural areas have a new source of •  Existing natural gas network income and jobs as the profitability of the accepts upgraded biogas agriculture in general is decreasing 3.  Other European countries are starting to •  Larger, more centralized copy the German model sites are being built •  Biogas as a transportation fuel is tax free Source: Biomass Magazine www.globalintelligence.com 18
  • 19. Subsidies and country-specific strategies Sweden: Innovation FIT’s exist in most EU countries - their •  Community buses efficiency is rated 7 times higher to increasingly using biogas other government support •  Liquid biogas to enable long distance + Second generation biofuels such as transportation •  Technologies to extract chemicals out of biogas ethanol and biodiesel are blended with fossil fuels. The existing fuel distribution infrastructure supports Poland today is liquid fuels over gas. “Germany in 1990” •  Limited biogas production •  Excessive food production and wealthy resources of arable land The utilization of biogas as a •  Good infrastructure and an existing transportation fuel is neglected natural gas network in place •  A need to find alternatives for imported natural gas Source: Biocycle, Biomass Magazine www.globalintelligence.com 19
  • 20. A bright future for European high tech players The market in Europe to The scope in the More countries business to shift from grow at a two-digit rate. adopt biogas in power generation to transportation gas and chemicals The main growth will take place in refinery projects and >1MW power plants. Price of fossil fuels Plants grow and increases while biogas centralize upgrade gets cheaper The share of exports will increase from the current 10 -15%. Development of New players equipment, enter market enzymes, chemicals and know-how Source: Global Water Intelligence, Helmut Kaiser Consultancy www.globalintelligence.com 20
  • 21. Country trends highlighted by industry experts “There’s a biogas boom in the UK. Poland and Ukraine (non-EU) are showing growth. Swedish market is interesting due to innovations. “Italy is a possible growing market in Germany potentially to replace 10-20% of regards of biogas utilization in natural gas with biogas.” transportation, Sweden as well – Jukka Rintala, Jyväskylä University City buses running on natural gas. UK, France, Spain & Italy adopting parts of the German model.” Andrea Horbelt, European Biogas Association “Poland has lot’s of plans and potential but so far not that much action. Denmark and Norway are rising, so is Sweden, at a high level.” Kim Söderman, Finnish Biogas Association Source: GIA Survey www.globalintelligence.com 21
  • 22. Thank You for Your Attention These slides are excerpts from Contact Us the GIA White Paper: “How to Profit from Biogas Market For additional information about the Developments”. Global Intelligence Alliance and our services, please send email to info@globalintelligence.com or log on Download the entire White Paper to the GIA website for the contact information of the GIA company for Free nearest to you. The report has been published under the GIA White Paper series at www.globalintelligence.com. www.globalintelligence.com
  • 23. About GIA www.globalintelligence.com
  • 24. GIA is a strategic market Intelligence and advisory group Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA) was formed in 1995 when a team of market intelligence specialists, management consultants, industry analysts and technology experts came together to build a powerful suite of customized solutions ranging from outsourced market monitoring services and software, to strategic analysis and advisory. Today, we are the preferred partner for organizations seeking to understand, compete and grow in international markets. Our industry expertise and coverage of over 100 countries enables our customers to make better informed decisions worldwide. www.globalintelligence.com
  • 25. Access local knowledge in over 100 countries GIA Group has 12 offices on 4 continents. Together with affiliated GIA Member companies, certified GIA Research Partners and consultants, GIA provides access to local knowledge in over 100 countries. All GIA Network companies adhere to GIA’s Research and Analysis Quality System as well as the SCIP Code of Ethics. www.globalintelligence.com - page 25
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