Tol Valuation Slides V0

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Global Platinum Securities

Business Economy & Finance

Toll Brothers(NYSE: TOL) Industrials Group Lambert Wang

Table of Contents

Valuation Summary Valuation Summary 52 Week Range: $13.55 – 24.30 Discounted Cash Flows: Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA): $12.37 – 15.86 Perpetuity Growth: $22.69 – 32.24 Trading Comparables: [TBA] Valuation Range:$13.55 – 24.30

Key Valuation Assumptions Key Valuation Assumptions 52 Week Range: P/E N/A (negative EPS) P/B 1.2x (vs. 1.5x industry) Discounted Cash Flows: Exit Multiple: 6x EV/EBITDA (Implied terminal growth rate – 2.2%) Perpetuity Growth: 5.0% terminal growth (Implied EV/EBITDA – 11.3x) WACC: 8.1% (8.7% Cost of Equity, 4.8% Cost of Debt, after-tax) Trading Comparables: Companies: [TBD] [TBD] [TBD] [TBD] Multiples [median]: EV/Revenue: [TBD] EV/EBITDA: [TBD] EV/EBIT: [TBD]

FCF Calculation FCF Calculation

WACC Calculation WACC Calculation

Equity Value Calculation Equity Value Calculation

Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis

Industrials Group industrials@gps100.com www.gps100.com

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Five Categories of Fin. Ratios Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio: TAT = Sales / T. Assets Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety afforded creditors Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier: EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset mgmt, & debt on operating results Expense Control: Profit Margin: PM = Net Income / Sales Market Value: indicators of what investors think of firm’s past results & future prospects

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1 CHAPTER 3 Analysis of Financial Statements 2 Topics in Chapter Ratio analysis Du Pont system Effects of improving ratios Limitations of ratio analysis Qualitative factors 3 Value = + + + FCF1 FCF2 FCF∞ (1 + WACC)1 (1 + WACC)∞ (1 + WACC)2 Free cash flow (FCF) Market interest rates Firm’s business risk Market risk aversion Firm’s debt/equity mix Cost of debt Cost of equity Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Net operating profit after taxes Required investments in operating capital − = Determinants of Intrinsic Value: Using Ratio Analysis ... For value box in Ch 3 ratios FM13. 4 Overview Ratios facilitate comparison of: One company over time One company versus other companies Ratios are used by: Lenders to determine creditworthiness Stockholders to estimate future cash flows and risk Managers to identify areas of weakness and strength 5 Income Statement20102011ESales$5,834,400 $7,035,600COGS4,980,000 5,800,000Other expenses720,000 612,960Deprec.116,960 120,000 Tot. op. costs5,816,960 6,532,960 EBIT17,440 502,640Int. expense176,000 80,000 EBT(158,560)422,640Taxes (40%)(63,424)169,056Net income($ 95,136)$ 253,584 6 Balance Sheets: Assets20102011ECash$ 7,282 $ 14,000S-T invest.20,000 71,632AR632,160 878,000Inventories1,287,360 1,716,480 Total CA1,946,802 2,680,112 Net FA939,790 836,840Total assets$2,886,592 $3,516,952 7 Balance Sheets: Liabilities & Equity20102011EAccts. payable$ 324,000 $ 359,800Notes payable720,000 300,000Accruals284,960 380,000 Total CL1,328,960 1,039,800Long-term debt1,000,000 500,000Common stock460,000 1,680,936Ret. earnings97,632 296,216 Total equity557,632 1,977,152Total L&E$2,886,592 $3,516,952 8 Other Data20102011EStock price$6.00$12.17# of shares100,000 250,000EPS-$0.95$1.01DPS$0.11$0.22Book val. per sh.$5.58$7.91Lease payments$40,000$40,000Tax rate0.40.4 9 Liquidity Ratios Can the company meet its short-term obligations using the resources it currently has on hand? 10 Forecasted Current and Quick Ratios for 2011. CR10 = = = 2.58. QR10 = = = 0.93. CA CL $2,680 $1,040 $2,680 - $1,716 $1,040 CA - Inv. CL 11 Comments on CR and QR2011E20102009Ind.CR2.581.462.32.7QR0.930.50.81.0 Expected to improve but still below the industry average. Liquidity position is weak. 12 Asset Management Ratios How efficiently does the firm use its assets? How much does the firm have tied up in assets for each dollar of sales? 13 Inventory Turnover Ratio vs. Industry Average Inv. turnover = = = 4.10. Sales Inventories $7,036 $1,716 2011E 2010 2009 Ind. Inv. T. 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.1 14 Comments on Inventory Turnover Inventory turnover is below industry average. Firm might have old inventory, or its control might be poor. No improvement is currently forecasted. .

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[Type text] [Type text] [Type text] Part 1: Native American’s Forced Assimilation Instructions: Watch the video ( https://www.vox.com/2019/10/14/20913408/us-stole-thousands-of-native-american-children) to get a history of assimilation in theUS. Then answer the following questions. 1.What was the purpose for the forced assimilation of Native Americans? 2.Name two strategies the US used to assimilate Native Americans and explain how each of these strategies worked. Part 2: Keywords for Asian American Studie “Assimilation” (pp. 14-17) https://books.google.com/books?id=bo_dBwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Keywords+for+Asian+American+Studie&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjsrcHi7OnnAhWnl3IEHeZyDKMQ6AEwAHoECAUQAg#v=onepage&q=Keywords%20for%20Asian%20American%20Studie&f=false Instructions: Answer the following questions. Provide a passage from the reading (i.e., “Assimilation”) in addition to your response to support your responses. 1.What are the five different definitions or perspectives on assimilation? As you identify them, note which one you think is most accurate for the contemporary situation of assimilation. 2.According to Lisa Park, how is assimilation enforced in our society? 3.What are the criticism of assimilation?4.What does Lisa Park say is a unique experience of assimilation for Asian Americans? (p. 17) Part 3: Assessing assimilation in our societyAnswer the following questions based on your observations, experiences, or insights. 1.Do immigrants have a duty to learn and adopt the local culture, or should they try to retain their native culture? 2.What does successful assimilation look like? What are some results of it? 3.What does unsuccessful assimilation look like? What are some results of it? 4.How does race fact into the process or act of assimilation? Valuation outputBase year12345678910Terminal yearRevenue growth rate70.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%56.55%43.10%29.65%16.20%2.75%2.75%Revenues$ 1,328.70$ 2,258.78$ 3,839.93$ 6,527.88$ 11,097.40$ 18,865.58$ 29,534.07$ 42,263.25$ 54,794.31$ 63,670.99$ 65,421.94$ 67,221.04EBIT (Operating) margin-1.64%-0.23%1.18%2.60%4.01%5.43%6.84%8.26%9.67%11.09%12.50%12.50%EBIT (Operating income)$ (21.86)$ (5.21)$ 45.46$ 169.63$ 445.34$ 1,023.93$ 2,020.72$ 3,489.47$ 5,299.16$ 7,058.25$ 8,177.74$ 8,402.63Tax rate0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.00%14.00%21.00%28.00%35.00%35.00%EBIT(1-t)$ (21.86)$ (5.21)$ 45.46$ 169.63$ 445.34$ 1,023.93$ 1,879.27$ 3,000.94$ 4,186.33$ 5,081.94$ 5,315.53$ 5,461.71- Reinvestment$ 659.64$ 1,121.38$ 1,906.35$ 3,240.79$ 5,509.35$ 7,566.30$ 9,027.79$ 8,887.27$ 6,295.52$ 1,241.81$ 1,877.46FCFF$ (664.84)$ (1,075.92)$ (1,736.72)$ (2,795.45)$ (4,485.42)$ (5,687.03)$ (6,026.85)$ (4,700.94)$ (1,213.58)$ 4,073.72$ 3,584.25Cost of capital10.03%10.03%10.03%10.03%10.03%9.63%9.22%8.81%8.41%8.

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Tol Valuation Slides V0

1. Toll Brothers(NYSE: TOL) Industrials Group Lambert Wang

2. Table of Contents

3. Valuation Summary Valuation Summary 52 Week Range: $13.55 – 24.30 Discounted Cash Flows: Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA): $12.37 – 15.86 Perpetuity Growth: $22.69 – 32.24 Trading Comparables: [TBA] Valuation Range:$13.55 – 24.30

4. Key Valuation Assumptions Key Valuation Assumptions 52 Week Range: P/E N/A (negative EPS) P/B 1.2x (vs. 1.5x industry) Discounted Cash Flows: Exit Multiple: 6x EV/EBITDA (Implied terminal growth rate – 2.2%) Perpetuity Growth: 5.0% terminal growth (Implied EV/EBITDA – 11.3x) WACC: 8.1% (8.7% Cost of Equity, 4.8% Cost of Debt, after-tax) Trading Comparables: Companies: [TBD] [TBD] [TBD] [TBD] Multiples [median]: EV/Revenue: [TBD] EV/EBITDA: [TBD] EV/EBIT: [TBD]

5. FCF Calculation FCF Calculation

6. WACC Calculation WACC Calculation

7. Equity Value Calculation Equity Value Calculation

8. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis

9. Industrials Group industrials@gps100.com www.gps100.com