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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

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Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos

Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains Petrissa Eckle & Peter Burgherr IDRC 2010
Outline: Severe accidents in the fossil energy chains ENSAD DATABASE @ LEA, PSI Energy Related Severe Accident Database Analysis of frequency and severity of accidents Risk indicators * Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications , www.secure-ec.eu *
ENSAD- Energy Related Severe Accident Database ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Historical examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Accident risk methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil EU27 Oil EU27 Oil global Oil global Frequency x Severity Number of accidents per year number of fatalities per accident (per unit of energy)
Results accident frequencies worlwide Absolute trend Trend in accidents normalized to energy unit Worldwide Worldwide energy production* *BP world energy report
Results accident frequencies OECD / EU27 Trend in accidents normalized to consumed energy unit OECD/EU27 NonOECD
Results of risk in the coal, gas and oil chain global ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SECURE* Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Develop and quantify indicators * Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications , www.secure-ec.eu Ecological Economical Social Security of supply Financial Risk (capital exposure) Price of energy Short term supply loss Resources / Potentials Accessibility (resource distrib. worldwide) Health effects Accident Risk Proliferation Climate change potential Eco system impact Accidents Hydrocarbons Waste Mid / long term availability of energy infrastructure, investments? Functioning of Markets / ( Geopolitical / Political risk) Technological risk- CCS? Policy uncertainties, CO2 Price
Risk indicators for MCDA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Risk indicators based on power law fit R1 : Expected number of fatalities per year (unit of energy) R2 : Number of fatalities at fixed frequency (similar to VaR) R3 : Expected risk over this threshold (similar to CVaR) Measuring average risk and risk for extreme events Risk indicators normalized to consumed energy unit: R1 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 0.38 0.07 0.12 Gas 0.09 0.05 0.06 Oil 0.32 0.03 0.03 R2 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 818 336 73 Gas 309 262 46 Oil 1636 261 420 R3 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 1224 605 75 Gas 463 635 52 Oil 3589 505 1385
Summary and outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
11. Juni 2010 PSI, Thank you for your attention

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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

  • 1. Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains Petrissa Eckle & Peter Burgherr IDRC 2010
  • 2. Outline: Severe accidents in the fossil energy chains ENSAD DATABASE @ LEA, PSI Energy Related Severe Accident Database Analysis of frequency and severity of accidents Risk indicators * Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications , www.secure-ec.eu *
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Results accident frequencies worlwide Absolute trend Trend in accidents normalized to energy unit Worldwide Worldwide energy production* *BP world energy report
  • 7. Results accident frequencies OECD / EU27 Trend in accidents normalized to consumed energy unit OECD/EU27 NonOECD
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. 11. Juni 2010 PSI, Thank you for your attention

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Insert power law plot for severity
  2. Second figure-> trend of accidents normalized to production-> Separate graph on same scale for EU
  3. Second figure-> trend of accidents normalized to production-> Separate graph on same scale for EU
  4. FN Fits mit allgemeiner stufe..
  5. Beispiel um die Schlussfolie als Danksagung zu nutzen