5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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GRF Davos 28th August 2014
Scenarios for Vulnerability and Risk
- Challenges and Applicability
PD Dr. Joern Birkmann
Head of Section / UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
birkmann@ehs.unu.edu

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Introduction – Scenarios in CCA and DRR
• Scenarios have an analytic and a normative function.
• Scenario are important tools to think in pluralistic futures.
• Scenarios have been used already since decades,
however, their application was often - particularly in
sustainability science - limited to resource scenarios
(Limits of growth).
• Scenarios can range from quantitative to qualitative –
from global to local.

3. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and
climate events
3
Source: IPCC 2012

4. Source: IPCC 2012 Socio-economic DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS
4
Risk and
the Role of Socio-Economic Developments
4
4

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SRES

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Scenarios for Adaptation Policies

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Components of the WorldRiskIndex
 WorldRiskIndex consists of 28 indicators
 15 out of 28 indicators are up-dated for the
2013 report

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Exposure to Natural Hazards 2013
(earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts
and sea level rise)
8

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Vulnerability
to Natural Hazards 2013
9

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Risk to Natural Hazards 2013
10

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Scenarios for Vulnerability
Source: Birkmann, J.; Cutter, S.; Rothman, D.; Welle, T.; Garschagen, M.; van Ruijven, B.; O’Neill, B.;
Preston, B.; Kienberger , S.; Cardona, O.; Siagian, T.; Hidayati, D.; Setiadi, N.; Binder, C.; Hughes, B.;
Pulwarty, R. (2013) Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change
and disaster risk. Climatic Change (DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2)

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• Need for vulnerability
scenarios
• Differences are e.g.
expected in China
• Linking: vulnerability
research (IAV) with the
Integrated Modeling
community (IAM)
• Important player in a
global think tank network –
scenarios for adaptation
policies
• Informs the IPCC AR5

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Foto – Wasserstrassen Vietnam
13
From Global to
Local Scenarios

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Participative
Scenario Development
Source: Birkmann,
Garschagen; Schwab 2011

15. 15 Source: Garschagen 2011,
Source: Birkmann et al. 2012 Schwab 2011
Conclusions
• Development Pathways and scenarios are important tools to
discuss future developments in risk and vulnerability
• Beside the development and use of scenarios for mitigation
policies, the IPCC is increasingly using scenarios also for
adaptation policies
• Scenarios are a key tool to move risk and vulnerability assessment
from the analysis of past/present trends towards future trends.
• Scenario development at the local level can complement sub-national
and national scenario development.

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Thank you!
Contact:
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0208
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299
E-Mail: birkmann@ehs.unu.edu
www.ehs.unu.edu