Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management

Disaster Risk is a development issue
- A development approach to disaster risk assessment
and management -

Dr. Carlos Villacis and Dr. Jianping Yan
UNDP-GRIP

Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org

Today’s agenda

Part 1- Managing disaster risk – Issues and challenges
Part 2- GRIP’s approach to support countries
Part 3- Actual applications


What you should take home

• Disaster risk is a development issue

• We can control the level of risk

• All our decisions and plans have to be based on a
clear understanding of the problem


Part 1

Issues & Challenges in DRM/R
Why there is no progress in reducing disaster
impact on development


Outline

• Challenges in Development
• Challenges in DRM/R
• Some recommendations on what can be done

The impact of disasters

In 2011,
• 332 natural disasters were reported
• 30,773 persons were killed
• More than 240 million people were affected (~ 19 times Senegal’s
population!)
• USD 366.1 billion in economic damages (~ 21 times Honduras’
GDP!)

Note: These are only major reported events (≥10 killed, ≥100
affected, state of emergency, call for international assistance)

Source: Annual Disaster Statistical Review, CRED, 2011


Impact on development is
enormous...
1998 Hurricane Mitch (1998): 80% GDP of
Honduras; 49% GDP of Nicaragua
1972 Earthquake in Nicaragua: 42% GDP
1976 Earthquake in El Salvador: 31% GDP
2001 Earthquake in El Salvador: 12% GDP
2010 Earthquake in Haiti: 125% of GDP
2005 Earthquake in Pakistan: 5% GDP
2010 Flood in Pakistan: 10% GDP

When are these countries going to
develop?


Small damage, but disastrous
impacts
1987 Earthquake -
Ecuadorian Oil pipeline

Damage to the oil pipe

- 60 km Oil pipeline damaged
- 6 months no oil exports
- 70% National budget lost
- 5 year national economic Environmental Impact
recession

Disaster impact is not a point in
time/space
Development
‘88
‘90
‘92
‘94
‘96

First priority should be to prevent this from happening - DRM

Every activity, including post-disaster recovery, has to be designed
and implemented under the long-term development context

Crises have long-term, lasting
impacts…
The Impacts of the 1975 War on Lebanon’s Aviation:
- 99 million passengers lost
- 50,000 jobs lost


Recurrent disasters hinder economic
growth

Projected Growth

Real Growth

‘50 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90


Global Distribution of Natural Hazards and
Poverty


What can we learn from Disasters?
- 5 Common Lessons


Lesson 1: Risk self-created by poor
planning…
San Salv
ador, 20
01

65% of total number of deaths happened at
this site

Lesson 2: Still emphasis in emergeny
response

Rescue
team to RADIUS RM Retrofit 4 schools
Turkey Plans (9 cities) in Kathmandu
Cost $1,5 m $ 2,5 m $ 45,000
time 1 week 2 years 1/2 year
Thousand
# lives saved 1 s ~ 1,500
(potentially
Methodology, Trained masons,
)
working techniques,
What remains - groups, awareness
awareness
Protect
Impact on development Protect
development - process the future


Still Emphasis is in Emergency (cont)

Mozambique - Floods 2000
• It was known - Rains heavier than normal
• Government appeal - $ 2.7 m
• International community - $ 400 K

Huge human and economic disaster
• Response and relief - $ 160 m
• Recovery and reconstruction - $ 450 m


Lesson 3: Unsafe building back

• Disaster risk has not been properly
addressed by recovery and
reconstruction processes and continue
re-building pre-disaster risk and
generating new risk


Non properly planned recovery

Reconstructing P.A.P
or re-creating
the problem?

Lesson 4: International Aid may worsen
the problem – Working only with central
govts.

• Promotes corruption and politicizes post-disaster
activities
• Does not address local needs properly
• Reduces effectiveness
From 1991 to 2004 Nicaragua received about US$ 500 million
per year in international assistance. However…

80% of public investment is paid by international assistance.

Nicaragua’s exports amount to just 30% of the country’s
imports. Permanent deficit and increasing debt.

Nicaragua remains completely dependent on foreign
assistance


Lesson 5: Lack of monitoring and
evaluation

The Mayor of Managua, Dionisio Marenco, advised more
than 5 thousand people living by the shores of lake
Xolotlán to evacuate their houses because the
Municipality has not the capacity to protect their lives
when heavy rains happen (Prensa Grafica,2005)

7 yrs after Mitch, there is no way to measure progress in risk
reduction


The Disaster-Development
Circle

Development
Development Poverty

How to
break the
Setback
circle?

Vulnerability
Disaster


Breaking the Vicious Circle

Poverty

Development
Development
Development Planning that
Planning that
Vulnerability
incorporates risk
incorporates risk
Setback management
management

Disaster


Disaster Reduction
What we can do to effectively protect
development?


Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (1)

• Shift emphasis from disaster preparedness and response to disaster
prevention through risk reduction

Disasters can and should be reduced in both the number and the extent of impacts

• Integrate risk management into public policy and development
planning

Risk management as an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and
development processes

• Move from projects to long-term programme

Long-term goals providing the necessary financial, legal, political, and social
conditions


Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (2)

• Make of technology transfer and capacity
building the first priority of cooperation

Creation of safer communities is not the responsibility of international
organizations but of the local people

• Pursue multi-stakeholder engagement

Sectors should be the key players in DRM/R.

• Measure progress and impacts

Mechanisms are needed to periodically monitor progress and evaluate
impact of the initiatives


Part 2

GRIP’s approach to support countries


The Issue in DRM/R

Understanding of the
problem
Risk Assessment

Proper Planning
Evidence-based decision
making

Disaster Risk Reduction +
Safe Development
Processes
Effective Actions

Effective Risk Management

• Learn from the past (disaster loss information)
– Causes, vulnerabilities, response, long-term impacts

• Accurately estimate future losses (risk assessment)
– Estimate potential losses accurately, make informed
decisions

• Risk Management
– Acceptable risk level
– Risk reduction capacity
– Risk transfer  Insurance, other ways
– Monitoring of changes
– Evaluation of strategies  Corrections


Why Risk Assessment?

• To understand the problem
– Size
– Characteristics
– Distribution
– Causes
– Feasible solutions  Strategies

• To monitor progress
– Impact
– Efficiency

• To evaluate strategies
– What is working and what is not?
– Necessary corrections


Role of Risk Assessment
Understanding of the
problem
Risk Assessment

Cost/benefit analyses Monitoring
Risk assessment Risk assessment
Proper Planning
Informed decision making

Disaster Risk
Reduction
Effective Actions

Evaluation
Risk assessment

How Risk Assessment should be done

• Risk is dynamic and changing over time, due to:
– Climate change
– Environmental degradation
– Urbanization

• Risk Assessment is a continuous process
– Periodic  Monitoring and evaluation
– Sustainable
– Multi-stakeholder engagement
– Capable of being improved  New information

• Not a one-time effort
• Done by Local institutions (Capacity development is the only way
to guarantee sustainability)
• Produces solutions (no numbers or nice-looking reports/maps)

Summary

• Risk management MUST be an integral component of every development
decision in order to break the vicious disaster-development circle.

• The basis of effective DRM is a clear understanding of the problem and of the
effectiveness of the potential solutions based on evidence-based risk
assessment.

• Risk assessment needs to engage policy/decision makers, stakeholders, and
risk analysts throughout its entire process.

• Risk assessment is NOT a one-time effort but a continuous process of
understanding the risks a country or a society is facing.

• Risk assessment has to produce practical, effective solutions. It is not an
isolated technical activity to produce reports and maps.

Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP)

- Official Platform for Implementation of HFA’s Priority II -


DRA at UNDP-GRIP

Mission:
“Better risk information for sound decision making”

Objectives:
•To improve the quality of disaster and risk information
•To ensure its use in disaster risk management and
development planning


DRA in Countries – Information Needs

– Learning from the past: to understand their vulnerabilities, high-
affected areas, and recovery capacities, etc.

– Basic risk information for setting up DRR baselines: to set up
measurable goals and prepare evidence-based DRR strategies

– Monitoring and evaluation mechanisms: to measure progress
and revise strategies

– Local Capacity: To produce realistic and locally supported
solutions and ensure sustainability


DRA Solutions Package

– Baseline for Risk Assessment (CSA): Assessment of what
already exists and identification of gaps and needs

– National Disaster Observatories: sustainable institutions for
systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of disaster info

– National Risk Assessments: multi-hazard risk evaluations to
delineate national DRM strategies, policies, programmes,
budget allocation

– Local Risk Assessments: assessments to support urban risk
reduction policies and actions

– Capacity Development: all the work is done by local
institutions, authorities and experts


DRA in Countries – A Road Map
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Preparation Assessment Applications

National Disaster •
National Disaster National DRM/R
Observatory Master Plan and
Loss Database
Strategy
National Risk
Assessment • Strong National
DRM/R System

Country Situation National Risk
Analysis (CSA) Information System • Pre-Disaster
Shelter Plan
• Scenario-based
Contingency
Local Risk Plan
Assessment • DRM/R Action
Plan

DRA in Countries: The Total Solution
 Country Situation Analysis  National e-Library
(CSA)  National Disaster
 National Risk Assessment Observatory (NDO)
(NRA)  National Risk
 Local Risk Assessment Information System
(LRA) (NRIS)
 Disaster Analysis &
Mapping (DAM)

 National workshops
 Readiness development
 DRA Programme CERAM =
 CERAM Establishment Centre of Excellence for Risk
Assessment and Management


Assistance provided by UNDP-
GRIP

• Methodologies and tools

• Training

• Technical advice: technical, policy making

• Coordination and overview

• Interaction with other countries

• Access to financial support


Methodologies and training

South Asia - Colombo
- March- 2009
- 60 participants
- 7 countries

• Methodologies
• Guidelines
• Standards
• Training modules


Tools: Disaster Risk E-libraries


Sustainable Capacity for DRA

Centers of Excellence for Risk
Assessment and Management -
CERAMs

GRIP CERAM Shanghai
Baja California, Mexico
UEM, Mozambique
NSET, Nepal


Implementation - Support activities
15 aspects of support within the typical UNDP project cycle:

• Project conception
– Overall vision on DRR based on risk assessment
– Preparation of concept notes
• Project definition
– Scoping workshop
– Proposal development
– Review and evaluation of technical proposals
• Project initiation
– Project document finalization
– Access to financial support
– Interaction with other countries,
• Project implementation
– coordination and overview
– Provision of appropriate methodologies and tools
– hands-on trainings
– technical support and advice
– monitoring and review,
• Project closing
– result review and evaluation, closing workshop.


Country Support and Services
As of 01/2012


Part 3

Applications of Risk Assessment

• Risk assessment for Climate Change Adaptation
• Support to humanitarian activities –Pre-Disaster Shelter
Planning


Climate change adaptation
Arequipa-Peru

Dimensions:
15 km: East - West
8 km: North - Sur


The problem

Nevado
Coropuna
glacier
coverage for
1955 (outline in
black) and
2003 (in orange
outer
boundary).


Glacial retreat – Nevado Coropuna

140
122.7

120 105.2
96.95
100
2)

80
63.99
56.7 Adaptation
60
m
A
k
a
e
r
(

40

20

0
1955 1975 1985 1996 2003
Years
Coropuna


Tangible results

Incorporation of
adaptation in
development
plans
Guidelines for CC adaptation
in agricultural poduction


Concrete measures
implemented
 3 water and irrigation systems that
optimize water usage

 15 community silos to store food

 5 mini-reservoirs


Introduction of CCA in
education
 4 textbooks “Knowing my world to adapt myself to climate
change”.

 Implementation by Official resolution of climate change in all
the public educational institutions (pre-school and elementary
school)


Mainstreaming CCA in daily life

- 1 climatolandia board game.
- 1 climate ludo game
- 3 brochures “The Coropuna and climate change”
- Climate change “Takiy Kausaypaq” Songbook
- 2 radio stations engaged: Radio Ispacas “The
Coropuna time” y Radio Pampacolca (radio spots).


State strategy for
CCA


Replication in other areas of Peru

Estrategias aprobadas 3 Junín, Amazonas y Lambayeque
Estrategias en 3 Tumbes y Lima
aprobación
Estrategias en 5 Arequipa, Ayacucho, Callao, La Libertad y
formulación Apurímac, Cusco
Estrategias en etapa 4 Loreto, Piura, San Martín y Cajamarca
inicial


THANK YOU!

www.gripweb.org


Support to humanitarian
activities

Risk Mapping for Strategic Planning of Shelter
Response in Tijuana, Baja California, México.

AGREEMENT OF COOPERATION
between
UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME

Antonio Rosquillas and Luis CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN
H. AYUNTAMIENTO
TIJUANA B.C.
Moreno CIENTÍFICA Y DE EDUCACIÓN
SUPERIOR DE ENSENADA.
Municipio de Tijuana


6 possible earthquakes

MUNICIPIO
DE
TIJUANA B.C.


Damage Evaluation
Estimated distribution
of buildings damage Color
Automatic Range Manual Range
ID
From To From To
a 0 18 0 18
c c
b 18 35 18 35
c c c c 35 53 35 53
c c c c c d 53 70 53 70
c d c c c
b d d c c c b
c c c c c c b a b c
a c c c b c c c c c b
a a a c c c c b c c d c b c
b a a c c c b b c c c d c b a
c b b b c c a a c c d d c b a
a b c b c b a a b c b c b c b
a a b a b a a a a a b c a b b
a a a a a a a a a a b
a a a a a a a a a a b b
a a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a a b a
a a a a a a a a a a a b b a
a a b a a a a a a b a b b b
a a a a b b a a a b b b b b a a
a a a b b b b a a b a a b a a a
a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a


Results

SAB CEN CTO CCO CVE LME PRE OTA PLA TAB Total
EQ1 10,000 4,622 8,917 3,282 1,226 5,839 7,276 4,497 6,372 6,246 58,277
EQ2 12,392 4,593 6,853 3,661 3,184 7,012 8,576 3,341 5,335 9,503 64,449
EQ3 3,025 2,792 1,942 2,400 1,360 2,751 8,457 1,266 947 3,648 28,588
EQ4 12,465 10,140 11,085 6,676 1,703 9,942 15,133 7,984 6,019 10,169 91,316
EQ5 4,986 4,504 2,900 4,289 2,581 5,317 16,561 1,993 1,456 6,338 50,925
EQ6 6,411 6,063 5,761 3,581 1,032 4,979 8,437 3,985 3,216 4,979 48,444

Number of persons with shelter needs estimated
for the six earthquake scenarios


Shelter plan uploaded on Google
Map


Simulation exercise with all sectors of
society 18 – September –
2009


Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management

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