Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

1. VULNERABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN MEGACITIES: THE CASE OF ISTANBUL International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 2002 (NASA / GSFC / MITI / ERSDAC / JAROS, + U.S. / Japan ASTER Science Team, 2000) Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University

4. Urban Vulnerability - Location - Building Materials - Municipal Services - Infrastructure - Land Titles - Social Exclusion - Income Poverty China – Huang He Delta 1979-2000 Satellite Images (Courtesy of UNEP/GRID- Sioux Falls) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

5. Informal living on the hills of Istanbul (2004) Space reconfigurations in an apartment building Urban Vulnerability - Construction Practices - Control - Corruption - Code Violation - Choice - Disregard MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

6. Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (a) a For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for first average is: Mean1=∑x/n b For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for second average is: Mean2= ∑x - (xMax+ xMin)/n – (nMax+ nMin) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Growth Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

7. Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Growth Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

8. Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (a) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Poverty Gap Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

9. Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Poverty Gap Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

10. Historic Progression of Earthquakes on North Anatolian Fault (Courtesy of USGS) August 1999 Marmara Earthquake - Fatalities: 18,000 people - Injuries: 50,000 people - Direct and Indirect Economic Loss: $5 to $12 billion (world’s highest relief cost 1992-2003) - Share of affected cities in GDP: 34.7% MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

11. Earthquake Hazard Assessment - M. 7 + earthquake probability: 32 +/- 12 % in 10 years 62 +/- 15 % in 30 years (Parsons et al.2000) - M. 7.5 scenario earthquake predictions: Casualties: 30,000 to 40,000 people Shelter needs: +600,000 households Building damage loss: $12 billion Intensity distribution after a Mw=7.5 Earthquake (Map by Mustafa Erdik et al. 2001) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

12. The Megacity Istanbul - Population: +10 million – 12.5% of Turkey - Economics: 40 % of Turkey’s industry 75% of real estate and financial institutions 42% of national tax revenues Social and Spatial Inequality in Istanbul Slums in Fener (1995) and a Gated Community in Beykoz (2005) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

13. Istanbul Urban Development 1934 – 1993 Istanbul Population Growth 1927-2000 MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland The Megacity Istanbul - Migration: 500.000/year - Annual growth rate: 3.5% - Informal settlements: 60%

15. Distribution of Damage after August 17, 1999 Earthquake in Istanbul (Map by Istanbul Governorate Disaster Management Center ) The 1980 approved Istanbul Metropolitan Area Master Plan (Map by Büyük İstanbul Nazım Plan Bürosu). Collapsed 6 story apartment building adjacent to Station AB1 in Avcılar (Courtesy of USGS) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

16. Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08

20. Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) Photos from districts in study, Zeytinburnu, Kadıköy, Avcılar (2004) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08

21. CONCLUSION Urban Poverty (economic and non-economic) + Unsustainable Urbanization and Development (control, code, corruption, construction…) + Substandard Urban Management (complex, chaos, mismanagement, technical and financial resources…) Vulnerability and Risk in Megacities International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

22. Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland