5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
CONTENT
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
AFAD
TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS
METHODOLOGIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS RISK DETERMINATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS

3. TRANSFORMATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
ProvincialDirectorates of Disaster and Emergency
Structure
Finance
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
LOCAL LEVEL DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
In all provinces
Administrative personnel
Technical personnel
Operational Staff
Management of disaster and emergency actions in local level
Duty
Engineering activities
SAR operations
Coordination between institutions
Central authority
Local authority
81 Provinces
with 11 Brigates

4. AFAD Strategic Plan 2013-2017
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Mission
Building Disaster
Resilient Society
Goals
Being A Constantly
Developing And
Learning Organization
Establishing A Risk-centred
Integrated
Disaster Management
System
GeneralizingDisaster
Management Standards
Launching Out An
Educational Campaign
For Disaster
Preparedness
Being A Leading
Organization In The
International Arena
PLANS
22 Objectives

5. According to the Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2013,
Turkey was the 3rd country in humanitarian aid after USA and UK with US $ 1 billion
in 2012.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
Afganistan
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Indonesia
Palestine
Haiti
Iraq
Iran
Japan
Lebanon
Mongolia
Pakistan
Somalia
Sudan
www.grforum.org
Chile
MAJOR HUMANITARIAN ACTIVITIES
INTERNATIONAL
C. Africa
Eqypt
Myanmar
Philippines
Yemen

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Transportation
Accidents
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
TECHNOLOGICAL
DISASTERS
INDUSTRIAL
ACCIDENTS
Mining
Accidents
Nuclear and
Radiological
Accidents
Threat to
Critical
Infrastructures
Massive
Fires
Biyological
Events
CLIMATE
CHANGE

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CLIMATE CHANGE
To minimize the risks of probable
disasters that may occur
depending on the climate change
To determine climate change
related disaster risks
Determination of hazards and
risks of disasters that may be
caused by climate change
Determination and assessment of
sectors that will be affected by
disasters that may be caused by
climate change
Determination of financial and
technological needs to decrease
the impacts of disasters caused
from climate change and
developing solutions

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CLIMATE CHANGE
Determination of hazards
and risks of disasters that
may be caused by climate
change
Determination of disasters
Collection of statistical
data
Examining seasonal
changes

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CLIMATE CHANGE
Determination and
assessment of sectors that
will be affected by disasters
that may be caused by
climate change.
Determination
environmental impacts
Determination economic
impacts
Determination social impacts

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CLIMATE CHANGE
Determination of financial and
technological needs to decrease
the impacts of disasters caused
from climate change and
developing solutions
Assessment of statistical data
gathered from fieldwork
Development of local/regional
action plans on climate related
natural disasters
Dissemination of lessons learned

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS
Seveso Directive
Safety Report
Qualitative and
Quantitative risk
assessment
External
Emergency Plans
Risk assessment
for domino
effects

12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
METHODOLOGY
IDENTIFICATION OF FACILITY
Strategy
Organization
Risk management
IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS
What can I do?
How can I do?
RISK DETERMINATION
To determine probabilities
To determine importance
To determine level of the risks
ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
Comparing criteria again
Determine the risks
SCENARIO
Select the worst case scenarios
Modelling the scenarios
DETERMINATION OF DOMINO
EFFECTS
Modelling of domino effects

13. Probabi l ity of disaster occerrence
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS -Concept of Risk
Assessment
Development of
expansion
scenario of
disaster
Estimation of
probabi l ity of
disaster occurrence
Estimation of
impact of disaster
Comprehensive
assessment of
disaster risk
Assumption of disaster,
Study of disaster
prevention measures
Event A
Event B
Event C
Low Medium High Extream
Extream B A AA AA
High C B A AA
Medium D C B A
Low D D C B
Impact of disaster

14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS -RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk Analysis (Hazid-
Hazop)

15. Event A
Event B
Event C
Summit Event （E0）
+
Event 2 (E2)
Event 1 (E2) Event 3 (E3)
・
Event 4 (E4) Event 5 (E5)
+ +
Event 6 (E6) Event 7 (E7)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS- RISK ASSESSMENT
Branch probability: P2
Branch probability: P1 Frequency of occurrence: FA=F0xP1xP2
Initial event 1-P2
Frequency of occurrence: F0 Frequency of occurrence: FB=F0xP1x(1-P2)
1-P1
Frequency of occurrence: FC=F0x(1-P1)
P0=P1+P2+P3
Pi<<1
P1 P2=P4xP5 P3
P4=P6+P7
P5
OR Gate
AND Gate
P6 P7
・
Event tree
Fault tree
Bow-tie

16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS - SCENARIO
Modelling the risks
(TNO, EFFECTS,
ALOHA, ARIPAR,
PHAST…)

17. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action:
• TABB(TurkishDisasterDataBank)
• Disaster Resilience Turkey Project
• Celebrating HFA achievements on School Safety
• Turkey Earthquake and Action Plan (UDSEP)
• Turkish Natural Disasters Insurances and Agricultural Insurance Pool
• Climate Change, Rural Development, Integrated Urban Development Strategy and
Action Plans
• Turkey Disaster Responce, National Mitigation and National Recovery Plans have been
preparing
From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed
in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research:
– Education & Training:
– Implementation & Practice:
– Policy:

18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction
From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction in
 Research:
 development of people-cantered early warning systems
 development of real time impact forecasting systems
 flood guidance systems
 famine early warning systems
 risk assessment systems for disaster reduction and recovery
 development of exposure databases, hazard and risk models
 Education & Training:
 development of creative educational materials
 projects that bring students into contact with local community and local government
 development of activities involving parents and local community through
 Implementation & Practice:
 increase political commitment to disaster risk reduction
 improve identification and assessment of disaster risks
 enhance knowledge management for disaster risk reduction
 increase public awareness of disaster risk reduction
 improve governance of disaster risk reduction institutions;
 integrate disaster risk reduction into emergency response management.
 Policy:
 coordination and cooperation within and among all countries also need to be improved
 humanitarian aid needs and donor promotion policies needs to promoted
 progress needs to be made on climate change adaptation
 adaptation of low-carbon development policies

19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
betul.kurada@afad.gov.tr
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