Peijun SHI1, Carlo JAEGER2 1Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's Republic of; 2Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate Forum

1. Session : Lessons learned from recent
very large-scale disasters in the world
Time: Wednesday, 29/Aug/2012: 1:00pm - 2:30pm
Session Chair: Peijun SHI, Beijing Normal University
Carlo JAEGER, Global Climate Forum, PIK
Location: Sertig
Session organized by the Integrated Risk Governance
Project/IHDP, and
Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate
Forum

2. Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world
Peijun SHI1, Carlo JAEGER2
1
Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's Republic of;
2
Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate Forum
In recent years, the whole world experienced various very large-scale
disasters including earthquakes in China, New Zealand and Haiti, floods in
Southeast Asia, and more significantly, the Triple Disaster in Japan. It is
unfortunate that the governing bodies at all levels still lack of coping capacity
and mechanism to prevent and mitigate such disasters as well as recover
efficiently and effectively from such events.
In this session, experts from the IRG Project community and the Global
Climate Forum will present their research findings based on case studies to
identify the lessons learned from different countries and different disasters.
Innovative concepts and ideas, not only in sciences and technology but also
in policy making and human behavior change, are expected to be discussed
and debated for the purpose of improving and assisting risk governance
practice globally.

3. Presentations:
Hirokazu, TATANO, Professor ,Kyoto University
Implications of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake for Disaster Risk Reduction
Planning and management
Qian, Ye, Professor , Executive director, , IHDP-IRG Project, ,Beijing Normal
University
Much money and too little money: lessons learned from recent global
disasters
Armin, Haas, Senior Researcher ,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research
Lessons learned from very large disasters – some remarks about
imagination and co-ordination
Xiaobing, Hu, Associate Professor ,Beijing Normal University
Ripple-Spreading Models and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance
Peijun, Shi, Professor , Co-chair, IHDP-IRG Project, Executive Vice
President ,Beijing Normal University
Lessons Learned from Recent Large-Scale Disasters in the World

4. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
Lessons Learned from Recent Large-Scale
Disasters in the World
Peijun Shi
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University;
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China;
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, P.R.China

5. Lage-scale disasters in recent years
2008 Wenchuan earthquake 2010 Haiti earthquake
2011 New Zealand earthquake 2011 Japan earthquake-tsunami

6. Large-scale disasters in recent years
2005 Hurricane Katrina 2008 Ice strom Southern China
2010 floods in Southeast Asia 2011 Drought in East Africa

7. Contents
1 Background
2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world
3 The cause of the LSD
4 What can we learn from the LSD
5 Conclusions

8. Global climate change and natural disasters

9. Source:Wetterstation HohenpeiBenberg
Heavy rainfall Changes in the U.S Heavy rainfall Changes in Germany
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Heavy rainfall Changes in Japan

10. Contents
1 Background
2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world
3 The cause of the LSD
4 What can we learn from the LSD
5 Conclusions

11. What ‘s the definition of large-scale disaster ?
A serious disaster due to hazards encountered once in
one century, causing huge human casualties and property
losses and wide range of impact, which, upon occurring,
cannot be independently coped with by the disaster
impacted area and has to be aided by means of external
forces.
Large-scale disasters will usually:
 Cause a total death of more than 10,000 persons
 A direct economic loss of more than RMB 100 billion Yuan (10 billion euro)
 An affected area of over 100,000km2

12. Major Charactristics of Large-scale Disaster
 Huge huaman casualties
Eg., China Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 caused in total more than
80,000 victims, including 69,227 persons killed and 17,923 persons
missing, and injuries to 374,600 persons
 High property losses
Eg., The Hurricane Katrina of USA in 2005 caused a loss of nearly
USD 100 billion
 Large-scale affected area
Eg., The Indian Ocean Earthquake and the tsunami triggered thereof
in late 2004 involved 15 countries along the coast of the Indian Ocean
 Broad economic - social - ecological impact
Eg., the 2011 earthquake in northeastern Japan Sea and the tsunami
it caused on the mechanical and electrical production in East Asia
and the Pacific Coast - public health - the atmospheric environment
and marine ecosystem wide effects.

13. Standard of Large-scale Disaster Classification
Death Toll Direct Disaster
Index Intensity （ person Economics area
Type (frequency) ） Losses （ km2 ）
（ billon ）
Large-Scale 7.0 （ magnitude ） or ≧10,000 ≧1,000.0 ≧100,000.0
Disaster >1/100a
Big Disaster 6.5-7.0 （ magnitude ） 10,000.0-
1,000-9,999 100.0-999.0
Or 1/50a-1/100a 99,999.0
Medium Disaster 6.0-6.5 （ magnitude ） 1,000.0-
100-999 10.0-99.0
Or 1/10a-1/50a 9,999.0
Small Disaster <6.0 （ magnitude ） or < ≤99 ≤9.0 ≤999.0
1/10a
Notes:
(1) The standard for different disaster grades shall meet any two of the items for the index;
(2) Dead population includes the population killed and the population missing for more than 1 month;
(3) The direct property loss means the value of properties actually damaged in the year due to the disaster;
(4) Disaster area refers to the disaster area with human casualties or property loss or damaged ecological system
due to the disaster.

14. Cases of Worldwide LSDs (1989-2011)
Economic
Year Disaster Name Intensity (frequency) Death Toll (persons) Affected Area (104km2) Losses
(100M RMB)
RMB)
Kobe Earthquake
1995 7.3 6,434 dead Approx. 12.0 7,175.0
Disaster in Japan
Yangtze River Basin
1998
Flood in China
1/50a-1/100a 1,562 persons dead 22.3 1,070.0
2003 European Heat Wave 1/50a-1/100a 37,451 persons dead Approx. 100.0 1,300.0
Indian Ocean 800km coastal line serious
230,210 persons dead
2004 Earthquake-Tsunami 8.9 damaged, deep into the Approx. 70.0
45,752 persons missing
Disaster inland by 5km
Hurricane Katrina in
2005 1/100a 1,300 persons dead Approx. 40.0 Approx. 8,750.0
USA
Kashmir Earthquake in
2005 7.6 About 80,000 persons dead Approx. 20.0 Approx. 350.0
South Asia
Burma Hurricane 78,000 persons dead
2008 1/50a-1/100a Approx. 20.0 Approx. 280.0
Disaster 56,000 persons missing
Freezing Rain & Snow
129 persons dead
2008 Disaster in Southern 1/50a-1/100a Approx. 100.0 1516.5
4 persons missing
China
Wenchuan Earthquake 69,227 persons dead
2008 8.0 Approx. 50.0 8,500.0-9,000.0
Disaster in China 17,923 persons missing
2010 Haiti earthquake 7.3 225,000persons dead 6,361.3
14,063 persons dead
2011 East Japan earthquake 9.0 14,949.1
13,691 persons missing

15. Contents
1 Background
2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world
3 The cause of the LSD
4 What can we learn from the LSD
5 Conclusions

16. Disaster-chains and LSD
Disaster-chains triggered by a severe or enormous
disaster event are generally the reason for the huge losses
of LSD.
General structures of
disaster chains
Type 1: Type 2:
General Structure of Disaster Parallel Disaster Chains (Ripple effect)
Chains (“Domino Effect”)
H = hazards, E= natural dynamic process of earth system,
d1 = primary disaster H1,…, Hm = primary hazards,
dn = secondary disaster of nth order d1,dn,dm1,dmn,… = secondary disasters

17. Typical disaster chains Drought
Earthquake
Cold wave – strong wind Typhoon – rainstorm

18. The relationship between disaster-chain, multi-hazard, and LSD
Disaster-chains and multi-hazards are often used in various
disaster studies, but there are various understandings
regarding to their essential difference (Shi et al., 2010a).
Multi-hazard is a statistical concept of diversified hazard types
under a specific temporal-spatial context. Generally there is no
causal or triggering relationship between hazards. Disaster-
chain and hazard-chain are processes with triggering,
cascading or ripple effects (Shi, 1991).
The existence of multi-hazards is not a sufficient and necessary
conditions for the formation of a LSD; only when the multi-
hazards meeting together will it be possible to trigger a LSD.
The emergence of disaster-chain due to severe or enormous
disaster is the necessary and adequate condition for formation
of a LSD. Only with an extremely high prevention level will the
LSD not be initiated.

19. Contents
1 Background
2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world
3 The cause of the LSD
4 What can we learn from the LSD
5 Conclusions

20. Case analysis of global response to the LSD:
experiences and lessons learned
Case 1: Response to the East Japan Great Earthquake-Tsunami
Time:Japan time at 14:46 on March 11th, 2011 (Beijing time at 13:46 on
March 11, 2011)
Location: northeastern Japan
Epicenter longitude and latitude: 38.1 degrees north latitude, 142.6
degrees east longitude
Focal depth: 10 km
Magnitude: Richter 9.0
Epicentral intensity: Ⅸ degree
Casualties: 14,063 dead and 13,691 missing (at 19:00 on April 12, 2011)

21. Highlights in the emergency response to 311 Japan Earthquake
Technical perspective
Japan did not make any long-term, short-term and pre-quake forecasting of the
“3.11” earthquake. Research outcomes in the past 10 years did not include this
area in key research and prevention.
Government perspective
Except for some officials exposed by the media as delinquent, the overall
response was effectively. The government successfully maintained stableness in
the impacted area and the whole country. All kinds of power were organized to
ensure the efficiency of disaster emergency response and post-disaster
reconstruction.
Enterprises perspective
Except for Tokyo Electric Power which impacted by the LSD, most enterprises
responded steadily and properly according to emergency response plan during
LSD.
Public perspective
Japanese public maintained good consciousness for disaster prevention and
reduction as well as relatively sophisticated disaster escape skills.

22. summary
From the above four aspects, it may be observed that Japan has
many valuable experiences in responding to LSDs, which can be used
for reference by other countries in the world.
However, from huge losses, severe secondary disasters, and
extremely hard emergency rescue, we can still learn some lessons for
responding to such LSDs:
When it is rather difficult for the modern science and technology to
improve on the accuracy of forecasting LSD, an effective measure is
to improve the Fortification level.
It is urgent to pay attention to the potential huge calamities that may
result from disaster chains triggered by severe or enormous
disasters.
Attention needs to given to other faults with less significant
activities in recent years but which have the potential to cause LSD.

23. Case 2: Response to China Wenchuan Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide
14:28 pm on May 12 of 2008, a major earthquake measuring 8 Richter
scale jolted Wenchuan County of Southwest China’s Sichuan province.
The most serious earthquake of China since 1949:
– High population intensity
– large disaster-affected area
– serious frequent aftershocks and secondary
disasters
– Huge difficulties in disaster relief
– the most severe damages and losses
Earthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan,China in 2008

24. Highlights in the response to Wenchuan Earthquake
Technical perspective
No short-term and pre-quake forecasting were made. In previous relevant
research, as this region is in the South-North seismic zone of China, Ministry
of Science and Technology and China Earthquake Administration had
enhanced the observation and monitoring of the active tectonics in this region
and comparatively promptly published the epicenter and intensity of the
earthquake, though not the seismic intensity range.
Government perspective
Media spoke highly of the Chinese central and local governments for
responding to this LSD.
Enterprises perspective
In the whole disaster area, almost all enterprise except for extremely few state-
owned large-scale enterprises suffered severe losses due to their low
prevention capacity.
Public perspective
The weak pubic consciousness for disaster prevention and reduction in the
disaster area, the whole economic society was in a relatively backward state in
China.

25. summary
From the above four perspectives, it is observed that the “national
response” mode formed by China in responding to LSD has been
effective. It fully used of national forces, partner assistance, uniform
leadership, organization and steering of the central government,
implemented a “human-oriented” and “scientific” response, and
promptly participated in LSD emergency so as to minimize the disaster
consequences, carry out the recovery and reconstruction at a fastest
possible speed and increase the capacity of the disaster area to
respond to future LSDs.
From this catastrophe we learned lessons including:
The low Fortification standard and level.
Enterprise property, public property and family property
which are involved in insurance level is too low
The disaster area people have very low prevent disaster
risk consciousness, and it has a very important influence
to prevent the LSD.

26. Contents
1 Background
2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world
3 The cause of the LSD
4 What can we learn from the LSD
5 Conclusions

27. Conclusions
 With global change and human development, large-scale disasters (LSDs)
cause heavy losses to human beings. We must find new ways to face
LSDs.
 The existence of a disaster-chain impacted by a natural harzads is the
necessary and sufficient condition for a LSD, only with an extremely high
disaster prevention level it will not be initiated. A multi-hazard
phenomenon is not a sufficient condition for a LSD and only when the
multi-hazards meeting together it will be possible to trigger a LSD.
 Since the global impact of LSDs, we must give full play to the role of the
United Nations, governments, businesses, especially transnational
enterprises and individuals. For the in-depth analysis of LSD impacts and
the establishment of LSD risk governance paradigm, it is necessary learn
from the successes and failures in each response to LSD. There is need to
absorb the wisdom and talent of different nations and learn from the
profound lessons of human beings in the history of fighting with LSD.

28. Consilience Model for LSD Governance

29. Thank you!