1. Integrated modelling of climate
impacts on food and farming at
regional to supranational scales
Session 212

2. Schedule
16:40 Banse et al.: MACSUR
17:00 Dono et al.: Economic & uncertainty
17:20 Gutierrez et al.: Climate & grain prices
17:40 Podhora et al.: Science & stakeholders
18:00 Brouwer (cancelled after Brazil meeting)

3. A European network of crop, livestock and
trade modelling — activities for assessing
impacts of climate change on food security
M. Banse1, M. Köchy1, R. Tiffin2
1 ThünenInstitute, Braunschweig, DE
2 University of Reading, UK

4. Challenges
• Change in climate
— CO2, drought (temp. ×
precip.),
extremes, spatial and temporal
correlation
• Growing world population
— increasing food demand
• Increasing prosperity
— change in lifestyle, more meat

5. FACCE MACSUR
Modelling European Agriculture with
Climate Change for Food Security
• “Knowledge Hub” initiated by 17
European countries + Israel
— within the FACCE Joint Programming Initiative
• started 1 June, 2012; runs 3 yrs

6. Project questions
• Will there be enough food in
the future?
• What’s the effect of climate
change on food security?
• What’s the contribution of
Europe to global food security?
• How can the uncertainty of
model projections be reduced?
MA K A A Y E
RTN LS

7. MACSUR’s aims
• bolster European capacity
in responding to the challenges of
global change for agriculture and food
security
• assist countries outside Europe
in their endeavors towards sustainable
agriculture and food security in the
face of climate change

8. Modelling food security
climate ! $$
world market
CO₂
!
food !
feed beef/milk Betriebe
farms
pork
crops

9. Inventories of models
B PE L G
C
YS
IM AI ICS CA Jm E-B IC CS
• 6 grassland models
aS AR ST IS P M E P A
P C AD L
BI
O SP
W
• 86 crop models rs ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers IC
he h h h h h h h h h h h P
ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot E
Jm
L
LP im
S
pl
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AC ICS DE
LU Y
I
ST EN DA WO PJ-
M L
T
S FOS UE
G
SS
• 26 economic models D D D D
O O O O IE IOM RI O
D
A A
FI RIA O
D O
D
EM EM EM EM GP OB AP M SM M M EM
M M M M A C AR PA E O S
A P A4 AG
M
AG A G A G AG M G
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SF DR

10. Different scales ~ different models
• point or plot models: crops, grassland
• farm-level models, diverse approaches
— farm investment models, land allocation
• regional and national models
— country as one farm
• international and global models
— international trade and policies,
expected production and prices

11. Integration
and scaling

12. Integration and scaling
• ensemble simulations
— benchmarking
— estimate of model uncertainty
• several regional foci
• linking of models via on-demand
coupled output/input
• integration for stakeholders,“tool box”

13. MACSUR int’l cooperation
Sharing of scenarios, MACSUR emphasizes
protocols, and data • crop rotations
• integration across themes
— AgMIP
• micro and macro levels
— AgTrials • European diversity in soil,
— FoodSecure climate, and systems.
— AnimalChange • knowledge exchange &
— MultiSward collaboration
• training of integrative
— CCAFS
modellers

14. MACSUR Mission
• improve and integrate models
of crop and livestock production, farms,
and national & international agri-food
markets l i nk ed
m odel s
• demonstrate the integration
of these models tools for selected farming
systems and regions
• provide hands-on training
to young and experienced researchers in
integrative modeling

15. European contribution to
global food security
• develop methods for linking models
• develop training for (young) scientists
• assess contribution of crop production
to global food supply

16. For further information
please visit: www.macsur.eu

17. FACCE MACSUR
17 countries •Israel
•Austria •Italy
•Belgium •The Netherlands
•Czech Rep. •Norway
•Denmark •Poland
•Estonia •Romania
•Finland •Spain
•France •Sweden
•Germany •UK
© EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries
71 organizations, 230 scientists