5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
An assessment of place
vulnerability to natural hazards in
Lesotho, southern Africa
Moipone Letsie & Stefan Grab.
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg,
South Africa

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Structure
• Aims and objectives
• Framework & Methodology
• Study area
• Results
• Conclusions

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Definition of terms
Vulnerability = f(exposure, resistance, adaptive capacity)
(ISDR, 2007) defines vulnerability as the conditions determined
by social, economic, physical and environmental factors or
processes that increase the susceptibility of a community to the
impact of a hazard.
Characteristics of an individual or community and their characteristics that
influence their capability to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from
the impact of a natural hazard (Wisner et al., 2003).
Natural hazards are severe and extreme weather and climate
events that occur naturally in all parts of the world ….. (WMO)

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Aim & objectives
This study explores factors underlying spatial vulnerability of places to
natural hazards in south-western Lesotho. The primary objective,
providing a focal point to this assessment, is to determine how the
hazard profile, socioeconomic makeup and biophysical environment
influence spatial vulnerabilities in the study region.
• By broadening the scope of vulnerability to include biophysical and
socioeconomic characteristics, the study emphasises the concept of place
vulnerability as a foundation for understanding Lesotho’s vulnerability to
natural hazards.
• Prior vulnerability assessments in Lesotho have investigated vulnerability
in terms of identifying populations that are most food insecure and
vulnerable to hunger.
• Thus, the study seeks to address the gaps in methodology used in the
previous vulnerability assessments and the type of data collected in
Lesotho.

5. The study used a modification of the ‘Hazards of Place Model’ of
vulnerability to assess place vulnerability to natural hazards
(Cutter, 1996). Using this model, a combination of social and physical variables
was examined to assess place vulnerability.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Framework
Mitigation
Hazard
potential
Geographic
context
elevation
proximity
Biophysical
vulnerability
Place
vulnerability
Social fabric
-Experience
-Perception
-Built env.
Social
vulnerability
Risk

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methodology
The study adopted a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative
methods which combined data from different sources.
• Social vulnerability was developed from indicators of
demographic, social and economic variables of households
and communities (census data, household interviews, key
informants.
• Physical vulnerability was developed from the history of
hazard occurrence, climate data, focus group discussions,
biophysical and environmental characteristics.
• Data analysed with SPSS & ArcGIS
– By harnessing geographic techniques such as GIS and spatial statistics,
this study investigates the spatial nature of multiple hazards and the
specific communities that are affected differently in Lesotho.

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Study area
• Land locked
• 1.8 million population
30 600km
• More than 70%
population depend on
subsistence farming
• High unemployment
rate
• Highly mountainous
terrain ((1 388 m to 3
482 m) over grazing and
land degradation
• Not much has been
done by government to
reduce society’s
vulnerability to natural
hazards

8. Physical characteristics of the study area
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Elevation map
Lesotho has varied geomorphology &
topography including micro-climatological
influences with a
significant impact on the ecology &
economy of the country. These factors
characterize the formation of distinct
ecological zones in Lesotho which
include the lowlands (17%), foothills
(15%), mountains (59%) and Senqu
River Valley (9%)

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Natural occurrence and frequency

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Impacts

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Impacts

15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Physical vulnerability
• Biophysical data & natural
hazards information overlaid to
produce physical vulnerability
map which identifies spatial
variations
• Lowland areas & river valleys
have high physical vulnerability
scores to natural hazards, apart
from drought, these areas are
affected by a range of natural
hazards (flooding, severe frost
and strong winds) directly
associated with topography &
high population densities.
• Highlands & cattle posts less
vulnerable because of their
topography and distance from
the river valleys. These areas are
less susceptible to flooding and
damaging strong winds but
suffer from severe frost and
heavy snowfall.

16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• 27 variables used in SPSS to Social vulnerability
construct social vulnerability
index, variables were reduced
into 8 components named:
access to resources, vulnerable
population groups, population
density, family structure,
economic status, employment,
access to services and rurality.
• Least vulnerable areas were in
urban lowlands- high levels of
education, formal employment,
earn regular income, have
diverse livelihood options.

17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Overlaid social & physical vulnerability Overall place vulnerability
layers
• Place vulnerability highest in rural
highlands & along the river valleys where
heightened levels of social vulnerability
overlap with areas susceptible to drought,
strong winds, severe frost and flooding &
high social vulnerability levels
• Spatially, the least vulnerable community
councils are situated in the foothills,
lowland, uninhabited and inaccessible
cattle posts.
• Low place vulnerability in rural highlands
results from low physical vulnerability due
to low population densities and
settlement location (on the foot of slopes
and are less exposed to flooding) and are
mainly susceptible to drought, strong
winds and heavy snowfall. However, their
dependency on livestock farming (less
prone to frost as compared to crop
farming in the lowlands) contribute to
relatively low physical vulnerability levels.
• Overall, place vulnerability is a result of
physical geography than social
vulnerability

18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusion
• Many communities mainly vulnerable due to their location,
geographic exposure, low household incomes, low rainfall,
topography and greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors such as
agriculture, these factors increase people’s vulnerability and reduce
their productivity and resilience to external shocks
• Natural hazards are recurring & intense, increasing impact on
people and their livelihoods.
• Rural highlands are highly vulnerable- lack of resources and
services, poverty, unemployment, presence of vulnerable groups
(orphans, elderly, female and child headed households) are the
most influential factors to social vulnerability & reduce their
inability to recover from future shocks - These underlying factors create
conditions of vulnerability that result in insufficient capacity to cope with natural hazards and
disasters

19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions
• Physical geography, exposure to natural hazards and past
experience with natural hazards are the most important
factors influencing physical and the overall place vulnerability.
• Identifying the importance of the key physical vulnerability
indicators (topography, climate and soils) can signal to
decision makers where and how to develop communities that
are more resilient to natural hazards over the longer-term.
• Vulnerability in the study area is dynamic both seasonally and
temporally and is influenced by environmental and global
changes. There is a distinct seasonality to risk and exposure
posed by natural hazards (e.g. snow fall and frost hazards in
winter and floods in summer).

20. Endogenous and exogenous factors influencing place vulnerability in Lesotho
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Hazard profile -
frequency &
intensity,
exposure
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Mitigation-diversification
of
livelihoods,
infrastructure
development, job
creation, drought
resistant crops,
wind resistant
houses, climate
information
Biophysical conditions –
geology, topography,
proximity to rivers &
roads, floodplains, land
degradation, soil erosion
Place
vulnerability
Social conditions – poverty,
HIV/AIDS, weak social
networks, dependency on
agriculture, unemployment,
inaccessibility, child & female
headed households
Coping strategies –
livestock sales,
migration
External
drivers- land
use & climate
change,
infrastructure,
mine
retrenchments

21. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– A place vulnerability assessment to natural hazards presented in this
study address some of the aims outlined by the global and regional
bodies such as the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction in
Africa, which among others, (ISDR, 2004; 2010) called for improving
the assessment and identification of natural hazards.
– This research is in agreement with the Southern African Vulnerability
(SAVI) framework, which seeks to examine local vulnerabilities to
shocks (O’Brien et al., 2010).
– By using local knowledge gathered from household interviews, focus
groups and key informants interviews, this research is therefore
compliant with the framework of the IPCC (2012), which calls for the
integration of local knowledge with scientific and technical knowledge
to improve disaster risk reduction.

22. From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and
further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction in
• Research:
– Establish national disaster risk reduction research centres to support policy for
effective decision making in Africa
• Education & Training:
– Strengthen DRR curriculum development in primary, secondary and higher
education institutions as a strategy for mainstreaming and integrating DRR into
the daily lives of communities. This includes promoting and piloting local
innovations and technologies in DRR education and research.
– Strengthen scientific capacity to develop and apply methodologies, studies and
models to assess vulnerabilities to and the impact of geological, weather, water
and climate-related hazards, including the improvement of regional monitoring
capacities and assessments.
– Strengthen the countries’ capacity to implement early warning systems for rural
populations, through the strengthening of key technical capacity and the
rehabilitation of key infrastructure
– Build capacity for better technical integration of climate change issues into
development planning, by promoting tools and methodologies for the analysis of
vulnerability and the development of innovative adaptation solutions.

23. From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further
steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk Reduction in
• Implementation & Practice:
– It is important to maintain the priority actions for HFA on governance,
information and early warning systems, disaster education, (using social media)
– Take into account the high rate of urbanisation and environmental degradation,
particularly with flooding events, improve regulations and enforcement of land use
planning, for rural and urban development planning.

24. From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further
steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction in
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
– Policy
• Integration of DRR and climate change adaptation
• There is a need to employ a multi-hazard risk assessment approach to
better define risk
• Promote synergies between development, disaster risk reduction and
climate change adaptation for resilience (improve livelihoods and
mainstream resilience and risk management into policies, strategies and
investment plans).
• Include social protection policies in order to reduce chronic and emerging
vulnerabilities paying particular attention to vulnerable groups (children,
women, disabled and elderly) in DRR initiatives due to their acute
vulnerability
• There is a need to promote domestic resource mobilization and public-private
partnerships; enhance regional networking to address trans-boundary
issues; ensure that platforms are located at the highest decision
making levels; and ensure coordination with community platforms.

25. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you