1. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
Global Risks –
An Integrated Governance Approach of China
Peijun Shi
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University;
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China;
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,
P.R.China

2. Contents
1 Global Impact of Large-scale Disaster
2 Chinese Paradigm of Integrated LSD
Risk Governance
3 Discussions

3. 1 Global Impact of Large-scale Disasters

4. Japan's earthquake and tsunami disaster
2005 U.S. Hurricane Katrina (1300 death) in 2011 (15,000 deaths)
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake - tsunami Myanmar typhoon disaster in 2008
(275,000 dead) (70,000 deaths)

5. Global Network of Large-Scale Disaster Impact
Politics
k
Pr
or
od
tw
uc
ne
ti
n
on
so
ai
ch
Li
ai
ns
Society
Economy
Catastrophe
em
st
Su
sy
pp
ly
al
ic
ch
og
ai
ol
ns
Ec
Geography

6. Hazard itself is local, but the impact of disaster is global.
- Volcanic Activity in Iceland
 Time: April 14, 2010
 Strength: 20 to 40 years
 Impact:
 More than 60,000 flights
were canceled, millions of
people affected,
 Direct loss of 800 million
Euros;
 Indirect loss of billions of
USD per day by logistic
industry (IATA).

7. Air transportation - a central part of globalization
World flight route distribution

8. Land
contamination
Declined Decrease of
marine bio Damage to
ocean marine
Water water resources
Damage to aquaculture
contamination terrestrial system quality
Damage to Housing Damage to
Animal variation
road & collapse reservoir &
Damage to regional & bridge dam
Vegetation global ocean ecological
contamination system
Atmospheric Structural damage
pollution
Nuclear substance leakage
Damage to Collapse
Human
agricultural ecological casualty Explosion of
system Damage to
nuclear power Tsunami Earthquake
Impact on plant terrestrial system
human health Housing
collapse Landside
Social panic
Social Damage to coastal
Damage to supply embankment
chains system instability
Impact on power supply
Damage to social Damage to
service system production system
Damage to industrial
production system
Damage to lifeline
system
Impact on local economy and world economy
Earthquake - Tsunami Disaster Chain of Japan in 2011

9. Impact of the earthquake on the Sino-Japanese trade
Impact Percentage of
Commodity duration impact (%)
(month) maximal average
Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates. 1 93.3 46.7
Coffee, tea, mate and spices. 10 84.6 55.3
Products of the milling industry; malt; starches; inulin; wheat gluten. 6 96.9 50.2
Sugars and sugar confectionery. 8 76.3 43.2
Cocoa and cocoa preparations. 4 99.6 82.1
Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastry cooks' products. 10 99.0 81.1
Miscellaneous edible preparations. 3 46.0 32.7
Beverages, spirits and vinegar. 11 94.3 66.1
Residues and waste from the food industries; prepared animal fodder. 6 100.0 60.6
Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered (waste
6 48.2 24.6
and scrap) paper or paperboard.
Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of
1 21.6 18.2
paperboard.
Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials. 3 46.0 10.0
Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances. 12 54.7 38.6
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling-stock, and parts and
4 47.6 18.6
accessories thereof.

10. Global impacts of Large-scale Disaster(LSD)
Globalization of LSD impact is mainly shown in the
following three aspects：
The importance of a LSD-hit regions in the
global economic- society and ecological
system, the global networks of transport,
communication and internet, the global
production chains and supply chains
determines the range
.

11. 2 Chinese Paradigm of Integrated LSD
Risk Governance

12. Disaster System (DS)
 Environments (E)
 Hazards (H)
 Socio-economic system (S)
DS=E∩H∩S

13. Atlas of China Natural Disaster (1992)
13

14. Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China (2003)
14

15. Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk Atlas of China (2010)
15

16. Integrated Nature hazard Risk of China

17. 2.1 The Paradigm of IRG
- -Stakeholders Mode of Disaster Risk Reduction
Governments
Community
Institutes
Family
Place
Local Stakeholders
Regional
Global
Integration
Coordination
Actions
Cooperation
Construction
Communication
Government: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)
Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)
Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)
Family: Risk Awareness (Education)

18. Four Dimensional Paradigm of IRG
System of systems, Integration of Integrations
in transition-in and transition-out of IRG
Multi-action (Coordination)
System for
Multi-stakeholder,
Multi-action,
Structural
Multi-system
and
Multi-phase
Non-structural
Multi-system (Optimization) systems
C1
Individual Household Institute Community
Before Government Multi-stakeholder (Cooperation) Integration for
C2
Cooperation ,
During
C3 Coordination ,
After Integration
and
Multi-phase (Integration)
C1: Construction
Opimization modes
C2: Communication
C3: Clarification

19. Integrated risk governance and
optimizing mode of China
Security Disaster
Construction Preparedness
Disaster Structure Function
Emergency Reconstruction Emergency
Relief Optimization Optimization
Risk
Recovery
Governance

20. Four principles for integrated risk governance
 First, regional planning should be based on the spatial
distribution of natural hazards as well as the carrying capacity of
regional resources and environment.
 Second, the world should be increased the prevention capacity of
infrastructures to hazards. The ideal situation would be no loss
for small disasters, acceptable losses for moderate disasters,
casualty under control for big disasters, while being able to
recover from large-scale disasters.
 Third, a complete catastrophe risk transfer scheme ought to be
established. Infrastructures and housings should be insured
against catastrophe disasters .
 The last, the national integrated risk governance system should
be established, with its integrated structural and functional
system,With a consilience system .
20

21. 2.2 Top-down Model
Nation-wide Paradigm of
Integrated LSD Risk Governance
in China

22. The Nation-wide Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk
Governance in China (Top-down)
Circular
Economy
Saving Environment
Resources Friendship
Sustainability
Green Risk
Economy Governance
Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction and Development
22

23. Chinese Paradigm for Integrated LSD Risk
Governance (Top-down model)
Weak social foundation Sa
r fe
fe ty
ns co
ra ns
T tr
k uc
is ti
R on
Active
y participation of the
nc
R
ec
e whole nation’s people
rg
ov
e
er
m
y
E
Firmly Strengthened
Intensive efforts of Central Strong support of
political government finance
people’s army national power
foundation foundation
P
n
re
io
p
ct
ar
ru
ed
Correct guidance
st
n
on
es
E of media opinion
ec
s
m
er
R
ge f
nc l ie
y re
m er
an st
ag a
em is
D
en
t Profound culture foundation
Structure of Foundation of Structure connection of Content connection of
integrated governance national governance integrated governance national governance
Function of Content of Function connection of Foundation connection
integrated governance national governance integrated governance of national governance

24. 2.3 Bottom-up Model
The Community Paradigm of
Integrated LSD Risk Governance in
China

25. The Community Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk Governance in China
(bottom-up model)
Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction and New Development

26. Safety Land Planning Sa
fe
er ty
sf co
r an ns
T tr
k uc
is ti
R on
cy Safety Level
R
n
ec
ge
ov
er
er
m
y
E
Industry Carrying
Relief Reserve Local government Re-Planning
Adaptation Capacity
P
n
re
io
p
ct
ar
ru
ed
st
n
on
es
E
ec
s
m
R
er Warning System
ge f
nc l ie
y re
m er
an t
ag as
em is
D
en
t Risk Awareness
Structure of Foundation of Structure connection of Content connection of
integrated governance national governance integrated governance national governance
Function of Content of Function connection of Foundation connection
integrated governance national governance integrated governance of national governance
Chinese Paradigm for Integrated LSD Risk (bottom-up model)

27. 2.4 Consilience Model for LSD
Governance with Integrated the Top-
down and Bottom-up Actions

28. Consilience Model for LSD Governance
Integreted System
Cooperation
Coordination
Communication
Construction
Consilience
Economy
Culture
Politics
Society
Extraction
Government Institute Interprise Individual
Nation Planning State-owned Age
City Finance Community Middle-Ager
Province Professional Private Youth
County Civil Joint Venture Children

29. Integrated risk governance strategies
based on the consilience model
 From governments, globally, give full play to the rule of the United
Nations, establish the global LSD governance partnership based on
the current UN-ISDR framework.
 From institutes, strengthen the in-depth studies of LSD, such as
predicting, forecasting and early warning, improving the information
service system and developing different engineering and non-
engineering technologies for LSD governance
 From enterprises ,should actively participate in LSD insurance,
scientifically define acceptable LSD risk, controllable LSD risk and
proportion of LSD risk to be transferred.
 From individual ,completely enhance the consciousness for disaster
prevention and reduction, master basic common knowledge for
disaster prevention and disaster escape skills, completely cultivate
the safety culture and systematically improve the self-rescuing and
mutual-rescuing capacity and level.

30. 3. Discussions

31. Global Impact of Large-scale Disaster
 The global impacts of LSD are mainly represented in the impact on
global networks such as transport, communication and internet, the
impact on production chains and supply chains, and the impact on
earth ecological system.
 Different countries’ practices of disaster response indicate that
adequately mobilizing the initiatives of LSD risk governance can
systematically increase the LSD coping capacity.
 With the global impact of LSD, we must give full play to the role of
the United Nations, governments of countries and regions,
enterprises, and individuals.
 For the in-depth analysis of LSD impacts and the establishment of
LSD risk governance paradigm, it is necessary to learn from the
successes and failures in response to LSDs.

32. A Chinese Way of Thinking for Dealing with
integrated LSD risk governance
 天地人和(Nature, Living environment and People)
 Better understanding the relationship among three
components in the social-ecosystem （Nature, Living
environment and People)
 Emphasis of their interaction and processes.
 天人合一(Harmony between nature and people)
 Changes both in Nature and human society (People) must be
coordinated with each other in spatial-temporal scale and
magnitude.
 Emphasis of speed of development

33. How do we transform from vulnerability country and region to
resillence country and region of LSD risk in the worlid ?
Increasing capabality of
cliamate change adaptation
Strong Adaptation
it e
Gl dive
rs at
ob rs
ve im
y
al it
di l cl
d
Fu
ize
cl y
n
tim
cti
a
im
ob
on
at
op
Gl
e
pe
e
tur
rfe
uc
cte
Str
d
Spatial Scale Temporal Scale
(global,regional,local) (thousands,hundreds,decades)
De
ce c re
en a se
si l i
Re Action Dimension Vu
ln
se e ra
re a (economy,politics,culture,society） bili
Inc ty
Increasing capability of
Increasing capability Consilence enhanced disaster reduction by
of coping with LSD
science and technology
Global climate
diversity
Global integrated risk governance paradigm

34. How do we transform from vulnerability country and
region to resillence country and region of LSD risk
in the world ?
First, we shall establish the “Global Catastrophic
Governance Foundation” to fully utilize the leading function
of the United Nations and national governments, extensively
mobilize forces of enterprises and societies, and completely
increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the United Nations’
international disaster reduction activities and global LSD risk
governance capability.
Second, we will establish the “global green
development union” to perfect “blue countermeasures”
and “green countermeasures” for adapting to climate diversity,
and equally treat “emission reductions” and “foreign exchange
earnings increases” as well as a “low-emission carbon economy”
and “high-sink carbon economy”.

35. How do we transform from vulnerability country and
region to resillence country and region of LSD risk
in the worlid ?
Finally, we aim to establish a “global disaster risk
education and research network” to integrate related
databases set up by relevant organizations of the United Nations,
national governments, transnational insurance enterprises,
scientific research institutes, institutions of higher learning and
social agencies..

36. Thank you！