Paola SALVATI, Cinzia BIANCHI, Mauro ROSSI, Fausto GUZZETTI CNR - IRPI, Italy, Republic of

1. >>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

2. OUTLINE
THE EXTENT OF THE PROBLEM
THE DATA WE COLLECTED
THE RISK ANALYSIS WE PERFORMED
Z
CONCLUSIONS
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

3. PROBLEM
Landslides and floods are widespread and
frequent events in Italy
Every year in Italy landslides and floods
kill or injure people
In the last 50 years 1,294 landslides and
floods caused 7,140 casualties, 137 per year
Is the risk posed by geo-hydrological
events to the population changing?
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

4. HISTORICAL CATALOGUE
NEWSPAPERS PUBLICATIONS
CATALOGUE OF
LANDSLIDES AND FLOODS
WITH HUMAN CONSEQUENCES
ARCHIVES WEB
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

5. GEOGRAPHYCAL DISTRIBUTION
LANDSLIDES (650-2011)
Casualties 1-5 6-10 11-20 11-50 >50 Evacueted and homeless 1-100 101-1000 >1000
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

6. GEOGRAPHYCAL DISTRIBUTION
FLOODS (590-2011)
Casualties 1-5 6-10 11-20 11-50 >50 Evacueted and homeless 1-100 101-1000 >1000
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

7. GEOGRAPHICAL PERSISTENCE
LANDSLIDES FLOODS
KERNEL DENSITY
(1900-2001)
Low High
Landslide Floods
(2002-2011) (2002-2011)
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

8. INDIVIDUAL RISK
CATALOGUE OF LANDSLIDES AND FLOODS
INDIVIDUAL RISK isCONSEQUENCES a hazard
WITH HUMAN the risk posed by
to any identified individual
To study INDIVIDUAL RISK we determine
landslide and flood mortality, measured by the
number of fatalities (deaths and missing persons)
per 100,000 people in a period of one year
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

9. INDIVIDUAL RISK
MORTALITY RATE
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Earthquakes 2.31
Floods 0.05
Landslides 0.08
0.005
1861 - 2011
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

10. MORTALITY RATE
Mortality Rate
1861-1900
Earthquakes
1901-1940
Floods
1941-1980 Landslides
1981-2011
Population in millions
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

11. FATALITIES
FATALITIES
1981-31/07/2012
Earthquakes 400
Floods 347
Landslides 949
6
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

12. CLIMATIC CLASSIFICATION
CLIMATIC CLASSIFICATION
CS Sub-tropical temperate
Csa Warm temperate Mediterranean
Csb-Cfb Temperate Mediterranean sub-coastal
Transition Temperate Mediterranean
Cfsa to temperate sub-continental
Cfa Temperate with warm summers
Cfc Continental temperate
Dw Cool temperate
H High-altitude
EFH Permanent snow
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

13. MORTALITY COMPARISON
LANDSLIDES 1861-2011 FLOODS 1861-2011
National Average Mortality Rate National Average Mortality Rate
CS Sub-tropical temperate
Cfa Temperate with warm summers
Csa Warm temperate Mediterranean
Cfc Continental temperate
Csb-Cfb Temperate Mediterranean sub-coastal
Dw Cool temperate
Transition Temperate Mediterranean
Cfsa to temperate sub-continental
H High-altitude
EFH Permanent snow
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

14. MORTALITY COMPARISON
LANDSLIDES FLOODS LANDSLIDES FLOODS
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

15. CONCLUSION
Landslide and flood casualties occur in areas that
have frequently suffered harmful events over time
Compared with other natural disaster in the most
recent period the highest mortality rate in Italy
is due to landslide events
The highest mortality values for both landslide and
flood events were registered in the period 1911-1960
The analysis shows that the C class, with differences
in Temperature and Precipitation, seems to have
similar trends in mortality rates variation.
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

16. >>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

17. INTENSITY
LANDSLIDES 1850-2011 FLOODS 1850-2011
Number of Casualties per Event
Number of Casualties per Event
Years Years
1 2-5 6-10 11-20 21-50 >50 1 2-5 6-10 11-20 21-50 >50
>>> Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy