Towards a methodology for a Quantitative (Risk) Assessment of Critical Infrastructures

1. Towards a methodology for a Quantitative (Risk) Assessment of Critical Infrastructures Roberto Filippini, Marcelo Masera Institute of Protection and Security of Citizens Joint Research Centre, European Commission Ispra, Italy

3. Introduction Critical Infrastructures Assessment? Integration/Operation? Decision making?

4. Introduction Critical infrastructures – Networked – Systems of Systems Service-oriented - available anytime, anywhere production distribution information technology communications Control Monitoring Data Power supply INTERDEPENDENCIES Society production distribution information technology communications Control Monitoring Data Power supply INTERDEPENDENCIES Society production distribution information technology communications Control Monitoring Data Power supply INTERDEPENDENCIES Society

5. A Few Features of CI Layered structure Technical-organization-management Decision making Local versus global Failure pathologies Escalation - cascade Diverse metrics Diverse dynamics Cross - borders A pool of diverse branches or a new standalone discipline? Multi-disciplinary System of Systems Networked Service oriented Available anytime-anywhere production distribution information technology communications Society

12. Modeling Insights 2 1 4 System 1 – Failure at system level 2 – Protection measures 3 – Local diagnostics 4 – Emergency management, cross-levels Field 3 Infrastructure TE triggering event Service interruption Operation The failure scenario may affect several levels of the infrastructure

13. Modeling Insights (2) Local measures TE Triggering event End states of the infrastructure Emergency management propagation throughout the network Local measures TE Triggering event Emergency management Restore End states of the system y Restore End states of the system x Infrastructure x Infrastructure y TIME A failure propagates throughout the network and triggers other events

14. Modeling Insights (3) x1 x2 x3 y1 y2 System states may be more or less relevant depending on the perspectives System x System y 11 21 31 12 22 32 1) Compound states space : path independent 11 21 31 12 22 32 32 22 32 2) Compound states space: path sensitive