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GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX




Global Dynamism Index 2012:
business growth fundamentals
Contents
01 Foreword
02 Introducing the GDI 2012
04 The GDI 2012 results
06 Business operating environment
08 Science and technology
10 Labour and human capital
12 Economics and growth
14 Financing environment
16 Country snapshots
18 Methodology
20 GDI participants and contacts
Foreword




 ED NUSBAUM
 CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
 GRANT THORNTON INTERNATIONAL


The polarised nature of the recovery           In the Grant Thornton Global           markets, but instinct may value
from the 2008-9 financial crisis and       Dynamism Index (GDI), we define            stronger competition laws in more
recession has had a profound impact        dynamism as the changes to the             mature markets. The GDI should act
on the global economy. Whilst              economy which have enabled recovery        as a signpost in this process, by
economic power was steadily flowing        from the 2008-09 economic recession        assessing the potential benefits and
towards high-growth emerging               and are likely to lead to a fast rate of   risks of each market for your
markets prior to 2008, the weak            future growth. The model was               organisation.
performance of mature economies over       developed by the Economist Intelligence        Further, the index was designed to
the past few years has undoubtedly led     Unit (EIU), who analysed 50 economies      influence public policy debates. In an
to an intensification of this trend. The   on 22 indicators of dynamism across five   ever more globalised and mobile
strength of economies in Asia, Latin       categories: business operating             world, the ability of economies to
America, the Middle East and Africa        environment, economics & growth,           build on their strengths and mitigate
is becoming increasingly integral to       science & technology, labour & human       weaknesses, has become fundamental
the health of the global economy.          capital and financing environment. To      in terms of attracting investment and
    Despite recent signs of a              validate and weight the indicators, the    boosting growth. In a time of
slowdown in key economies,                 EIU then conducted a survey of 406         continuing economic turmoil, the
emerging markets look set to dictate       senior executives from across the          GDI highlights the areas in which
the pace at which the global economy       globe, in which respondents were           governments should market their
will expand, at least in the medium-       asked to assign an importance to each      economies to investors, and in which
term. However this does not                indicator for their organisation.          they need to invest if they are to
necessarily mean that they offer the           We believe that dynamic                attract and grow dynamic businesses.
best environments for dynamic              organisations need to apply both               The results are fascinating and,
business growth. Despite poor              reason and instinct to decision            importantly, show that there are many
economic growth prospects, mature          making. Deciding which markets your        different paths to dynamism. Please
markets offer a wide range of qualities    organisation should operate in is no       explore the data for yourself at
and assets that remain central to          different. For example, reason may         www.globaldynamismindex.com
business location decisions.               point to the higher-growth emerging



                                                                                                         Global Dynamism Index 2012 1
Introducing the GDI 2012



In 2011, Grant Thornton commissioned the EIU to
research the business growth environments of 50
economies chosen on the basis of economic
importance, size and regional diversity1. Five areas
were identified as holding the key drivers to an
economy’s dynamism2: business operating                                        FIGURE 1: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY REGION
environment, science and technology, labour and                                NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

human capital, economics and growth and the
financing environment.
    Subsequently, 406 senior executives, from a
broad range of countries and industries, were
interviewed to determine which aspects of these
attributes they deemed most important for business
growth. This allowed for the weighting of each
aspect according to its perceived relevance. By
analysing the change in each attribute from 2007-
2010, the first iteration of the index, GDI 2011,
determined which economies had enjoyed the most
robust recoveries from the global financial crisis.
    Using the previous iteration as a baseline, the
current iteration of the index, GDI 2012, looks at
the progress of each economy over the past 12
                                                                                        62.9
                                                                                         North America
months. Rather than provide a measure of an
economy’s success during a period of high
economic turbulence, this iteration provides a true
illustration of the strength of each economy as a
place for dynamic businesses to flourish.




1
2
  A full list of participating economies is available on p.20
  For the purposes of this research, economic dynamism refers to the
                                                                                                                      53.8
  changes to the economy which have enabled recovery from the 2008-09                                                 Latin America
  economic recession and are likely to lead to a fast rate of future growth.
3
  A full list of the economies in each region/group is available on p.20




2 Global Dynamism Index 2012
Key findings
       Country-level highlights            Regional highlights3                   Top economies by aspect of dynamism
       • Singapore emerges as the most     • The Nordic nations are the most      • business operating environment:
         dynamic economy in the world        dynamic globally                       Finland, Ireland, Sweden
       • Finland, Sweden, Israel and       • North America, the G7, Western       • science and technology: Israel,
         Austria complete the top five       Europe and Asia Pacific also sit       Finland, Sweden
       • The United States ranks 10, and     above the global average             • labour and human capital: Argentina,
         China ranks 20                    • Eastern Europe sits just below the     Slovak Republic, Uruguay
       • Chile is the top Latin American     global average, followed by Latin    • economics and growth: Argentina,
         country, ranking 12                 America and the Growth-8               China, Uruguay
       • Venezuela, Nigeria and Greece     • Middle East and Africa comes         • financing environment: Singapore,
         sit bottom of the index.            bottom of the regional ranking.        Finland, France.




                                                                                         55.7
                 66.1
                                                                                         Eastern Europe



                       Nordic




59.2
Western Europe




            51.0
            Middle East and
                Africa


                                                                  59.3
                                                                  Asia Pacific




                                                                                                    Global Dynamism Index 2012 3
The GDI 2012 results



The release of GDI 2012 comes at a time of
continuing global economic uncertainty. In Europe,          “Singapore is perfectly placed to act as a
the severe austerity measures being used to reign in
                                                            gateway between West and East. Business and
huge budget deficits appear to be choking growth
prospects. In the United States, growth and job             economic growth prospects are supported by
creation remain slow whilst the return of polarising        an open, transparent financing environment
partisan politics is preventing any meaningful              and a well-educated workforce.”
discussion of how to tackle the growing mountain
of government debt. In Japan, anaemic growth rates          KON YIN TONG
were compounded by the devastating earthquake               FOO KON TAN GRANT THORNTON

and tsunami of March 2011.
     Growth prospects are healthier in emerging
markets. Indeed, over the next five years the IMF          binding them together is that they are regarded as
expects emerging market economies to grow at               having industrialised, indicating that a dynamic
around 7.8% per annum, compared with 3.2% per              business environment cannot be built overnight.
annum in mature economies. However, these                       Singapore, a small, open economy which
markets are now wrestling with their new status. In        industrialised rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s, sits at
India, the government is battling corruption               the top of the GDI. Singapore appears well-placed
scandals, high inflation, a declining rupee and a          to act as a gateway for dynamic businesses from
marked slowdown in growth. In Brazil, growth               mature markets seeking the greater returns on offer
tailed off towards the end of 2011, and the                in the high-growth markets of Asia. Its economy
government is now rapidly cutting back interest            comes top for financing environment globally, and
rates in a bid to boost industry.                          sits no lower than 11th in any of the five categories.
     Turkey is currently running a current account              Two Scandinavian countries come next, with
deficit of more than 10%, which is being financed          Finland slightly ahead of Sweden. The eurozone
with potentially dangerous inflows of hot money4           crisis has clearly hurt the economies of both
from abroad. Even in China, the target growth rate         nations, but the GDI suggests that longer term
has been cut and the full extent of the level of the bad   growth fundamentals are robust. Both economies
debt taken on by local government as part of the large     sit in the top three for both business operating
2008 stimulus programme has yet to be determined.          environment and science and technology, with
     The ten economies which sit at the top of the         Finland behind only Singapore in terms of its
GDI are varied, showing that there are many paths          financing environment.
to dynamism. There are three economies from Asia                Korea is the highest placed member of the
Pacific – Australia, Singapore and Korea; a further        Growth-8, a grouping of the largest high-growth
five are from Europe – Austria, Germany, Finland,          markets. However, China is the only other member
Sweden and Switzerland; the United States from             of this group which sits in the top half of the index.
North America and Israel from the Middle East.             Indeed India, Indonesia and Russia sit in the            4
                                                                                                                        ‘Hot money’ refers to
These ten economies represent a diverse set of             bottom ten, emphasising that dynamism is far more            speculative capital flows
                                                                                                                        that can move very quickly
economic and political conditions but one thing            than just another measure of growth.                         in and out of markets




4 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 2: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY COUNTRY
NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)

      Singapore         72.1
      Finland           70.5
      Sweden            69.6
      Israel            69.3
      Austria           66.1
      Australia         65.6
      Switzerland       65.1
      Korea             64.9
      Germany           64.8
      United States     64.1
      New Zealand       63.9
      Chile             63.8
      Taiwan            63.7
      Norway            62.6
      Uruguay           62.5
      France            62.2
      Denmark           61.9
      Canada            61.7
      Belgium           61.5
      China             61.4
      Slovak Republic   59.8
      Netherlands       59.5
      Malaysia          58.9
      Luxembourg        58.4
      Slovenia          57.9
      Japan             57.5
      Ireland           57.3
      Poland            57.2
      Czech Republic    55.7
      Brazil            55.1
      Hungary           54.7
      United Kingdom    54.5
      Vietnam           54.5
      Argentina         54.3
      UAE               54.3
      Turkey            54.2
      Mexico            53.2
      Italy             52.3
      Spain             51.0
      India             50.7
      Indonesia         50.7
      Colombia          50.2
      Russia            50.0
      South Africa      50.0
      Portugal          49.2
      Philippines       47.6
      Egypt             41.2
      Greece            40.2
      Nigeria           40.2
      Venezuela         37.4




                                        Global Dynamism Index 2012 5
Business operating environment



    An economy’s business operating
    environment – trade laws, regulation,                           “Chile is rapidly becoming more business-
    legal and political institutions –
                                                                    friendly. In recent years, the government has
    provides the foundations for business
    growth. A poor operating                                        taken robust measures to cut the costs and time
    environment, that fails to offer key                            involved in starting a business.”
    safeguards and security, represents a
    higher risk for business investment.                            ALFONSO IBAÑEZ
                                                                    GRANT THORNTON CHILE
    Conversely, those economies with open
    trade policies and clearly defined
    competition and legal systems offer a
    much better platform for dynamic
    businesses.
        Business leaders surveyed identified                   Finland, Ireland, Sweden, the              Whilst all the economies of the G7
    foreign trade and exchange regimes and                 Netherlands and Denmark are all very      sit in the top 30 on this measure, all
    controls as the most important aspect                  open economies with strong,               those of the Growth-8 sit in the bottom
    of an economy’s business operating                     transparent competition and regulatory    20, suggesting that the business
    environment, followed by policy                        systems. Of the five, Ireland has         operating environments in these high
    towards enterprise and competition and                 suffered most from the eurozone crisis,   growth markets remain a key area for
    legal & regulatory risk. Political                     but it has managed to hang on to its      development. The recent expropriation
    stability was assigned a lesser                        low corporation taxes making it an        by Argentina of YPF, an oil company
    importance.                                            attractive location for business          formerly run by Spanish firm Repsol,
        It can take economies many years                   investment.                               highlights the risks businesses can face
    to develop a sound business operating                                                            when investing in markets with
    environment so it is unsurprising to see                                                         different regulatory frameworks.
    the top ten places taken by mature
    economies. Indeed the top five places
    are all held by European nations,
    showing the underlying strength of
    economies in the region despite the
    current lack of growth.




    5
        ‘Ease of doing business index 2012’ – World Bank




6 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 3A: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING                                 FIGURE 3B: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING
                                            ENVIRONMENT: TOP 10                                                       ENVIRONMENT: BOTTOM 10
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)                                         NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)




                                                                                                                                                                              Pilippines
                                                                                                      Finland 94




                                                                                                                                                             Chin
                                                                                    Irela




                                                                                                                                                                 a5
                                                                                         nd 9




                                                                                                                                                      Vie




                                                                                                                                                                                         62.6
                                                                                                                                                         tna


                                                                                                                                                                   9.6
                                                                                                                .2
                                                                    Sw




                                                                                             3.4
                                                                                                                                                Eg




                                                                                                                                                            m
                                                                      ed
                                                                                                                                                  yp




                                                                                                                                                                       59
                                                                        en
                                                                                                                                                    t5
                                                                                                                                                       9.




                                                                                                                                                                         .3
                                                                           92
                                                          Ne                                                                                             1
                                                            the




                                                                             .8
                                                               rla                                                                           Indo
                                                                  nd                                                                             nes
                                                                    s9                                                                               ia 5
                                                                                                                                                         5.7
                                                                      1.
                                                     Den                5                                                                  India 54.7
                                                        mar
                                                           k9
                                                              1.4
                                                                                                                                                      .0
                                                                                                                                             Russia 51
    Russia and India, two economies
                                                  Canada 9                                                                                          4
which suffer from high levels of                          1.2                                                                                    48.           .7
                                                                                                                                             a               35
                                                                                                                                        entin




                                                                                                                                                                    .9
corruption, sit in the bottom five                                                                                                   Arg               ela




                                                                                                                                                                  33
                                                                                                                                                     zu
on this measure. In India, the                                                                                                                     ne
                                                                                                                                                 Ve




                                                                                                                                                             ia
                                                              0.7
                                                   Australia 9




                                                                                                                                                           er
                                                                                                                                                        Nig
reversal of the decision to allow a
foreign group to buy up to 51% of                                 0.7
                                                              rg 9
                                                         embou
local retail companies shows how                      Lux                   .4
                                                                          90
closed certain sectors are. China,                                     nd
                                                                    ala
where questions are raised around                                 Ze
                                                              w
                                                            Ne
                                                                               .1




competition due to the volume and
                                                                             90
                                                                          ia




dominance of state-owned enterprises,
                                                                       str
                                                                     Au




also has one of the least dynamic
business operating environments.
    Chile, where huge strides have been
made over recent years in cutting the
procedures, costs and days taken to         FIGURE 4: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGION
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)
start a business5, is the highest ranking
emerging market, ranking 14 globally,
level with Switzerland and above the
UK, France and Spain. Troubled
Greece ranks 35, below Korea, Mexico
and Uruguay.
                                                91.4                                           90.4
                                                      Nordic
                                                                                                   North America
                                                                                                                                       86.8
                                                                                                                                       Western Europe



                                                                85.5                                                 75.8
                                                                            G7
                                                                                                                     All countries
                                                                                                                                                  72.9
                                                                                                                                                    Asia Pacific



                              72.9                   63.9
                                                      Latin America
                                                                                      62.3                               60.3
                              Eastern Europe                                               Growth – 8
                                                                                                                         Middle East and
                                                                                                                             Africa




                                                                                                                                                     Global Dynamism Index 2012 7
Science and technology



    Science and technology is a measure
    of the ability of an economy’s                       “Entrepreneurship is strong in Israel, especially
    infrastructure to support the growth
                                                         in hi-tech industries. The economy not only
    of dynamic businesses. The rise of
    the internet has steadily eroded the                 has the largest number of biotech and overall
    geographical and economic barriers to                start-ups in the world per capita, but also the
    competition, but its ever-increasing                 third most NASDAQ-listed companies.”
    importance to the operations of
    dynamic businesses means poor                        ILANIT HALPERIN
    connectivity can also hold economies                 GRANT THORNTON ISRAEL

    back. Similarly, significant investment
    in research and development (R&D) is
    likely to boost the growth prospects of
    an economy both by creating new
    entrepreneurs and attracting businesses.       Israel offers the most dynamic             In the Nordic region, which is
        The top ten economies in the GDI       science and technology environment by      synonymous with innovations such as
    on this measure come from all over the     some distance, due principally to the      the mobile telephone, there is also a
    world. Their economies are of different    large proportion of GDP which is           long tradition of investing heavily in
    sizes and are at different stages of       spent on R&D (4.3%) – the aspect of        R&D, both through businesses and
    development. However, they share a         science and technology business leaders    higher education institutions. Finland,
    common drive to be ahead of the            identified as the most important. In the   Sweden and Denmark all score well in
    technological curve.                       1990s, Israel welcomed more than a         terms of the proportion of GDP
                                               million immigrants from the former         accounted for by R&D, as well as on
                                               Soviet Union into the country, many of     the quality of their IT infrastructure.
                                               them highly qualified scientists and       Elsewhere in Europe, Germany, which
                                               engineers. The government capitalised      is home to some of the most advanced
                                               on this influx of highly-skilled labour    engineering firms in the world, and
                                               by creating a number of tax incentives     Switzerland, both also have much to
                                               for venture capital funds and business     offer dynamic businesses in this area.
                                               incubator programmes, to develop its
                                               hi-tech industry.




8 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 5A: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:                                  FIGURE 5B: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:
                                            TOP 10                                                                        BOTTOM 10
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)                                             NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)




                                                                                                                                                 Argentina
                                                                                            Israel 73.0




                                                                                                                                                      Pola
                                                                                                                                                         Ph
                                                                                                                                                           ilip




                                                                                                                                                            23.2
                                                                                                                                                            nd 2
                                                                             Finla




                                                                                                                                                               pin
                                                                                                                                                                  es

                                                                                                                                                                   0.9
                                                                                  nd 6
                                                                                                                                               Ch




                                                                 Sw




                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                 ile




                                                                   ed




                                                                                                                                                                       .2
                                                                                      5.8
                                                                                                                                        Colu          19




                                                                     en
                                                                                                                                            mbia        .3
                                                             Ko




                                                                           64
                                                               rea                                                                                18.




                                                                             .9
                                                                   61                                                                                  7
                                                                     .0                                                                 Nigeria 17
                                                         Swit                                                                                        .9
                                                             zerla
                                                                  nd 5                                                                              .5
                                                                      9.0                                                               Greece 17
                                                                                                                                                       4
                                                       Japan 58
                                                                 .8                                                                                16.
                                                                                                                                               sia
                                                                                                                                            one         5.
                                                                                                                                                          7




                                                                                                                                                                .3
    Korea is the highest ranking Asian                                                                                                   Ind
                                                                                                                                                      t1




                                                                                                                                                              10
                                                                 56.4
nation in this area, ahead of Japan and                 Denmark                                                                                    yp
                                                                                                                                                 Eg




                                                                                                                                                          ela
                                                                                                                                                        zu
                                                                   3.9
                                                               an 5




                                                                                                                                                      ne
Taiwan in the top ten. The structure of                    Taiw         3.
                                                                          5




                                                                                                                                                    Ve
business in Korea is unusual in that the                              y5
                                                                    an
                                                                 rm
                                                                             .2



top ten businesses – the Chaebol – have                        Ge
                                                                           53
                                                                       E
                                                                     UA




around 55% of market capitalisation.
These firms, such as Samsung and
Hyundai, have large, vertically-
integrated supply chains which help
them stay at the forefront of
technological innovation.
Proportionately, Japan has the fourth
largest spend on R&D of the 50              FIGURE 6: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: BY REGION
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)
economies in the GDI, although clearly
this has failed to translate into
economic growth in recent years.
    Whilst IT infrastructure is generally
better in mature markets, many                 57.3                                 46.7
emerging markets are spending                       Nordic                           North America
                                                                                                                           45.8                          44.0
aggressively to close the gap. The                                                                                                 G7                   Western Europe

United Arab Emirates, for example,
increased spending in this area by more                           39.5
than 70% between 2010 and 2011,                                     Asia Pacific                          37.4
ahead of Uruguay (31%), China (23%)
                                                                                                          All countries
                                                                                                                                  37.3
                                                                                                                                  Middle East and
and Nigeria (22%). Similarly, the                                                                                                     Africa

greatest increases in broadband                              31.6                                                29.2
subscribers in 2011 were observed in                          Growth – 8

                                                                                    23.5                         Eastern Europe

Egypt, the Philippines and, again,                                                  Latin America



Uruguay.




                                                                                                                                                             Global Dynamism Index 2012 9
Labour and human capital



    Without the right workers to drive a
    vision forward, an entrepreneur will                  “In comparison, United States business growth
    not be able to achieve scalability in his
                                                          fundamentals are solid. A strong and stable legal
    or her businesses. The best workers not
    only increase productivity, but can                   system, access to capital, credit, and a highly
    also save a business time and money.                  skilled, diverse workforce are all key drivers
    Some of the most dynamic companies                    of business location decisions.”
    in the world go to great lengths to
    ensure they get the best people, and it               STEPHEN CHIPMAN
    works both ways in that the best people               GRANT THORNTON US

    will often be attracted by the most
    dynamic companies.
        When surveyed, business leaders
    assigned the greatest weighting to the
    reported growth in labour productivity          Argentina scores highest for the       strongest school life expectancy rates
    – output per worker. This is followed       dynamism of its labour and human           in the survey, but experienced mush
    by school life expectancy (how long the     capital, driven by labour productivity     slower labour productivity growth in
    average child spends in education) and      growth of 6.3% in 2011. School life        2011. Korea’s position at sixth is
    the unemployment rate. The                  expectancy in Argentina of 16.1 years is   supported by a low unemployment rate
    proportion of the population under          also above economies such as Canada,       (3.4%) and high school life expectancy.
    30 was assigned the lowest weight.          Germany and Sweden. Labour                     The highest ranking member of the
        On the whole, the economies of          productivity growth in the Slovak          G7 on this measure is Germany at 22.
    emerging markets score better on this       Republic was even more impressive in       Many mature market economies are
    measure that those in mature markets,       2011 (10.3%) helping its economy into      already dealing with unfavourable
    largely because growth in labour            second place. Another Latin American       demographics with ageing populations
    productivity favours emerging markets       economy, Uruguay, sits in third thanks     increasing dependency ratios and
    as they start from a lower base. Latin      to strong labour productivity growth       putting pressure on resources. Three
    America, Asia Pacific, the Growth-8         and a low unemployment rate.               such economies – Italy, Japan and
    and Eastern Europe all score highly in          Six of the remaining seven             Germany – sit bottom of the rankings
    this area, although the Nordic region       economies in the top ten are from the      for the proportion of their population
    again leads the way.                        Asia Pacific region. China experienced     under 30. And, whilst the G7
                                                the second fastest labour productivity     economies all find themselves in the
                                                growth (8.3%) in 2011, but is held         top 30 for school life expectancy, they
                                                back by a school life expectancy in        are also all in the bottom 30 in terms
                                                the bottom five globally. Conversely,      of labour productivity growth rates
                                                New Zealand and Australia have the         in 2011.




10 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 7A: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL:                         FIGURE 7B: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL:
                                            TOP 10                                                                 BOTTOM 10
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)                                      NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)




                                                                        Argentina




                                                                                                                                                    Portugal 5
                                                                                                                                                      Colo
                                                                           Slov




                                                                                                                                                          mbia
                                                                                                                                             Hu
                                                                               ak R




                                                                                                                                               ng
                                                                                  72.5
                                                                 Ur




                                                                                                                                                              1.0
                                                                                                                                                 ary
                                                                                                                                        Sp




                                                                                   epu




                                                                                                                                                               50.
                                                                   ug
                                                                                                                                          ain




                                                                                                                                                                 50
                                                                     ua
                                                                                                                                              47




                                                                                      blic




                                                                                                                                                                  6
                                                           Ch




                                                                       y




                                                                                                                                                                   .1
                                                                                                                                   Phil         .4




                                                                                          69
                                                             ina




                                                                                           72.
                                                                 67                                                                    ippin




                                                                                            .0
                                                                   .4                                                                        es 4




                                                                                               4
                                                                                                                                                 7.3
                                                      New                                                                         Greece 46
                                                           Zea                                                                                 .6
                                                              land
                                                                   65.                                                                    7.3
                                                                      6                                                       Nigeria 3
                                                     Korea 64                                                                                  0
                                                              .1                                                                            35.
                                                                                                                                      pt
                                                                                                                                  Egy             .6
                                                                                                                                                34




                                                                                                                                                      .4
                                                                3.9
                                                     Australia 6                                                                           ica




                                                                                                                                                    32
                                                                                                                                        Afr
                                                                   4                                                                uth




                                                                                                                                                E
                                                                62.




                                                                                                                                              UA
                                                           way                                                                    So
                                                        Nor              .1
                                                                       62
                                                                    ia
                                                                 es
                                                               on
                                                                            .6




                                                            Ind
                                                                          61
                                                                       an
                                                                     iw
                                                                   Ta




                                            FIGURE 8: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: BY REGION
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)


     Excluding Israel, which ranks 18,
the economies of the Middle East and
Africa score poorly on this measure,           60.2                                                         59.5
with the United Arab Emirates, South
Africa, Egypt and Nigeria filling the
                                                  Nordic
                                                                           59.8                               Asia Pacific

                                                                           Latin America
last four places. More than half of their
populations are under 30, but school
life expectancy averages below 14 years
in each and unemployment rates –
especially in South Africa and Nigeria                                         58.5
– are high. The key danger in these                                                Growth – 8
economies is that if young people lack
the necessary training or employment
                                                    56.4
                                                    Eastern Europe
opportunities, then the benefits of a
demographic transition – a boost to
growth prospects as the number of
                                                                                                   56.0
                                                                                                   North America
workers increases relative to
dependants (children and the retired)
                                                                55.7
– will be lost.
                                                                 All countries
                                                                                                                     55.8
                                                                                                                     Western Europe

                                                                                          54.6                                           39.6
                                                                                                    G7
                                                                                                                                         Middle East and
                                                                                                                                             Africa




                                                                                                                                               Global Dynamism Index 2012 11
Economics and growth



    Even before the global financial crisis,
    governments and business leaders in                  “Not only is China growing rapidly, but
    mature markets were talking up the
                                                         it is also developing. Increases in labour
    importance of having a presence in the
    faster growing emerging markets. As                  productivity and domestic demand point to
    governments and consumers deleverage                 a successful rebalancing of the economy.”
    in mature markets, and growth rates
    continue to disappoint, these calls have             XU HUA
                                                         GRANT THORNTON CHINA
    been growing louder.
        For dynamic businesses, faster
    growing markets offer the consumer,
    business and public sector demand to
    match their ambition. How fast an
    economy is expanding – growth in real      included in the GDI, whilst consumer             Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, the
    GDP – is identified as the key aspect of   demand expanded by 23% over the              economies of India (5) and Indonesia
    this area of dynamism according to         same period, the highest of all 50           (6) also score well in this category. In
    business leaders. How fast consumer        economies. However, recent effort to         India, expansion is expected to slow in
    demand is growing is also deemed           reign in wage growth, cut subsidies and      2012 in the face of strong global
    important, with the change in the value    prop up the trade balance are likely to      economic headwinds and persistently
    of the stock market assigned a lower       result in growth rates dropping below        high inflation which is constraining
    weighting.                                 4% over the next five years.                 private consumption. Indonesia’s
        Unsurprisingly given events since          Argentina leads a strong showing         growth rate will continue to be
    2008, emerging markets are well ahead      from Latin America, with Uruguay (3),        underpinned by strong growth in
    of mature markets on this measure. The     Chile (4) and Colombia (10) all in the top   exports and consumer demand.
    Growth-8 group of countries rank           ten. The two regional heavyweights, Brazil       The highest ranking mature
    ahead of Latin America, Asia Pacific,      and Mexico, rank 20 and 21 respectively.     economy on this measure is Sweden
    Middle East & Africa and Eastern               The rising global superpower, China      (14), where growth in GDP and
    Europe. With an end to its sovereign       ranks second on this measure of              consumer demand grew steadily in 2011
    debt crisis still seemingly a long way     dynamism. Its economy posted growth          despite the regional slowdown.
    off, Western Europe sits bottom of the     of over 9% in 2011 whilst consumer           Germany (25) ranks highest of the G7
    regional ranking.                          demand expanded by 21%. In an effort         nations; its economy expanded by 3%
        Argentina ranks top globally in        to cut reliance on exports and               in 2011, well ahead of any other
    terms of the dynamism of its economic      investment in favour of domestic             eurozone nation, and consumer demand
    and growth environment. Its economy        consumption, China’s economic growth         increased by 9%. The Canadian
    expanded by 9% in 2011, behind only        rate target has been dropped from the        economy escaped relatively unscathed
    that of China of the 50 economies          8.0% in place since 2005, to 7.5%.           from the financial crisis and ranks 31,
                                                                                            ahead of the United States (38).




12 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 9A: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH:                                FIGURE 9B: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH:
                                          TOP 10                                                                    BOTTOM 10
                                          NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)                                         NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)




                                                                                                                                               UK 52.1
                                                                                            Argentina




                                                                                                                                                 Den
                                                                             Chin




                                                                                                                                                    mar
                                                                                                                                                     Sp
                                                                                 a9




                                                                                                                                                       ain


                                                                                                                                                        k5
                                                                                                      95.6
                                                                                                                                          Ve




                                                                                   4.6




                                                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                                                            ne




                                                                                                                                                           2.0
                                                                                                                                              zu




                                                                                                                                                             .3
                                                                                                                                                ela




                                                                  Ur
                                                                                                                                      Irela         49




                                                                    ug
                                                                                                                                           nd 4       .7




                                                                      ua
                                                                                                                                               9.5




                                                                        y
                                                          Ch




                                                                          82
                                                            ile                                                                     Italy 49.2




                                                                            .3
                                                                80
                                                                  .6
                                                                                                                                                 6.8
                                                                                                                                     Slovenia 4
                                                     India                                                                                         4
                                                           80.
                                                              0                                                                             an 45.
                                                                                                                                        Jap
    Of the bottom ten economies,




                                                                                                                                                         .4
                                                                                                                                                 .5
                                                                                                                                               39




                                                                                                                                                       13
seven are from Western Europe. At                  Indonesia                                                                               al




                                                                                                                                                    ce
                                                             79.8                                                                         g
                                                                                                                                       rtu




                                                                                                                                                  ee
the bottom, Greece and Portugal,                                                                                                     Po




                                                                                                                                                Gr
which have received huge bailouts                            .4
                                                   Nigeria 79
but remain at the eye of the eurozone
storm, both saw their economies                                8.0
                                                           ey 7
                                                       Turk               .3
contract in 2011. Forecasts for 2012                                    75
                                                                     re
                                                                   po
                                                                                       .8




point to further drops in output as                              ga
                                                                                     73




                                                              Sin
                                                                                 bia




austerity measures bite. Other eurozone
                                                                                  8
                                                                              73.
                                                                              lom




economies which look set to contract
                                                                            Co



                                                                          sia
                                                                       Rus




this year, as new governments force
through massive fiscal adjustments –
namely Italy (46), Ireland (45) and
Spain (43) – also rank well down on
this measure.
    The economies of Japan (48) –         FIGURE 10: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: BY REGION
                                          NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)
where GDP contracted by 0.9% in
2011 following the devastating
earthquake and tsunami – and
Venezuela (44) – where consumer
                                             75.4
demand fell by 22% as rampant
inflation cut into spending power –             Growth – 8                       73.4                                        69.8
also offer less opportunity to dynamic                                           Latin America
                                                                                                                             Asia Pacific
businesses on this measure.
                                                                                                                                                    65.2
                                                                                                                                                    Middle East and
                                                        62.7                                                 62.6
                                                                                                                                                        Africa

                                                        Eastern Europe
                                                                                                             All countries

                                                                                                                                  60.7
                                                                                                                                      Nordic
                                                                             55.7
                                                                                                                53.4
                                                                             North America


                                                                                                                      G7



                                                              53.0
                                                              Western Europe




                                                                                                                                                Global Dynamism Index 2012 13
Financing environment



    Ambitious growth plans are important
    for dynamic organisations, but without                  “Despite the slowdown in the eurozone,
    the finance to bring them to life, they                 business growth fundamentals in Finland
    will have little impact on profitability.
    The global financial crisis that broke
                                                            remain robust. Investment in R&D remains
    in 2008 clearly showed that a major                     high whilst open trade policies and strong
    contraction in liquidity will result in                 institutions provide a low risk environment
    a major contraction in output. The
                                                            for investment.”
    billions of euros provided by the
    European Central Bank to the regions’                   JOAKIM REHN
    banks, which (at least) delayed regional                GRANT THORNTON FINLAND
    meltdown, provide further evidence
    of the importance of finance to growth.
         Dynamic organisations need to
    invest to stay ahead of the curve, and
    therefore require the financing
    environment in which they operate to              Mature economies tend to perform          Finland and France both rank equal first
    be as agile and fast-moving as they are.     more strongly than emerging                    with Singapore in terms of levels of
    Business leaders identified a sound          economies on this measure. North               private sector credit, and sit joint fourth
    financial regulatory system as the most      America emerges as having the best             in the rankings for the quality of their
    important aspect of an economy’s             financing environment, followed by             financial regulatory systems and access
    financing environment. This is followed      the Nordic region, the G7 and Western          to medium-term capital.
    by measures of credit availability –         Europe. Interestingly, the Growth-8                Another European country,
    namely access to medium-term capital         sits at the bottom of the regional             Austria, sits fourth on this measure but
    and the level of private sector credit (as   rankings, highlighting it as a key area        the overall regional score is dragged
    a proportion of GDP) – the prevailing        of development.                                down by the UK, Portugal, Spain and
    corporate tax rate and growth in                  At the country-level, Singapore           Ireland which all sit in the bottom 15.
    inward direct investment. Growth in,         has the most dynamic financing                 Indeed, despite London being arguably
    and the value of, inward M&A deals           environment, well ahead of second              the financial capital of the world, the
    were given lower weightings.                 placed Finland and third placed France.        UK sits above only Indonesia,
                                                 Singapore ranks highest in terms of the        Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria and
                                                 quality of its financial regulatory system,    Argentina in terms of the dynamism
                                                 the lightness of its corporate tax burden      of its financial environment.
                                                 and its high level of private sector credit.




14 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 11A: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT:                               FIGURE 11B: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT:
                                            TOP 10                                                                       BOTTOM 10
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)




                                                                                                                                                               Portugal 4
                                                                                            Singapore
                                                                                                                                           Ph




                                                                                                                                                                Egy
                                                                                                                                             ilip
                                                                                                                                                 pin




                                                                                                                                                                    pt 4
                                                                                                                                                    es




                                                                                                                                                                     Ind
                                                                             Finla




                                                                                                                                                                        ia

                                                                                                                                                                         3.3
                                                                                                                                                         40




                                                                                                                                                                           3.4
                                                                                                                                                                           40
                                                                                                                                                           .1




                                                                                                      82.2
                                                                                  nd 7




                                                                                                                                                                             .5
                                                                 Fra
                                                                                                                                               UK
                                                                                                                                                  39.




                                                                    nc



                                                                                      2.3
                                                                                                                                                     9




                                                                      e7
                                                         Au                                                                         Indonesia




                                                                        1.
                                                           str                                                                                39.2
                                                              ia




                                                                          8
                                                                 71
                                                                   .4                                                                               34.5
                                                    Chil                                                                                Venezuela
                                                        e7                                                                                                 9
                                                          1.4                                                                                           32.
                                                                                                                                                 sia         .6
                                                                                                                                             Rus          32




                                                                                                                                                                       .6
                                                  Poland 70                                                                                            ia




                                                                                                                                                                     31
    In North America, both the                             .4                                                                                        er
                                                                                                                                                  Nig




                                                                                                                                                                na
United States (8) and Canada (13)




                                                                                                                                                             nti
                                                               d 69.8




                                                                                                                                                           ge
perform strongly. Whilst the corporate             New Zealan




                                                                                                                                                         Ar
                                                                        5
tax burden in each is heavier than                                   69.
                                                                 tes
                                                         ed  Sta
average, their economies rank joint                  Unit
                                                                     3
first for access to medium-term                                    8.
                                                                l6
                                                                          .6




                                                             rae
                                                                        67




capital. Moreover Canada ranks                             Is
                                                                       nia
                                                                     ve




third for the quality of its financial
                                                                  Slo




regulatory system and the US ranks
first for both the value of inward M&A
deals and for private sector credit.
    Chile is the highest placed emerging
market, ranking 4= overall on this          FIGURE 12: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGION
                                            NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0)
measure. It ranks joint first for private
sector credit and joint fourth for both
the quality of its financial regulatory
systems and access to medium term              65.7                          61.1
capital. With its low corporate tax
burden and sound financial regulatory
                                               North America
                                                                                      Nordic                       58.6
                                                                                                                            G7
system, Poland is the second highest
ranked emerging market. Of the                                                                                                                   57.1
Growth-8 economies, Korea ranks                                                                                                                  Eastern Europe

highest (18) ahead of Brazil (24), with                                          56.5                               55.0
India (43) and Russia (48) near the                                              Western Europe
                                                                                                                        All countries
bottom.


                                                                54.8                                   52.6
                                                                 Asia Pacific                         Middle East and
                                                                                                          Africa
                                                                                                                               48.4
                                                                                                                                 Latin America




                                                                                                                47.4
                                                                                                                  Growth – 8




                                                                                                                                                              Global Dynamism Index 2012 15
Country snapshots



    FIGURE 13: GDI – COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS


     Country                    Rank   Strongest area (rank)                    Regional comparison

          Argentina             34=    Economics & growth, labour & human       ranks 4 in Latin America, behind Chile, Uruguay and Brazil
                                       capital (1)

          Australia             6      Business operating environment, labour   ranks 2 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore
                                       & human capital (7)

          Austria               5      Financing environment (4)                ranks 3 in Europe, behind Finland and Sweden

          Belgium               19     Business operating environment (14)      ranks 9 in Europe, ahead of the Netherlands and Luxembourg

          Brazil                30     Economics & growth (20)                  ranks 3 in Latin America; ranks 3 in Growth-8 behind Korea and China

          Canada                18     Business operating environment (6)       ranks 4 in G7 behind United States, Germany and France

          Chile                 12     Financing environment, economics         top in Latin America
                                       & growth (4)

          China                 20     Economics & growth (2)                   ranks 2 in Growth-8 behind Korea; ranks 6 in Asia Pacific

          Colombia              42     Economics & growth (10)                  ranks 6 in Latin America, ahead of only Venezuela

          Czech Republic        29     Business operating environment (22)      ranks 4 Eastern Europe, behind Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Poland

          Denmark               17     Business operating environment (5)       ranks last of 4 Nordic nations; ranks 8 in Western Europe

          Egypt                 47     Economics & Growth (39)                  ranks 4 in Middle East & Africa, behind Israel, UAE and South Africa

          Finland               2      Business operating environment (1)       top in Western Europe

          France                16     Financing environment (3)                ranks 7 in Western Europe, behind Germany but ahead of UK ranks 3 in G7

          Germany               16     Science & technology (9)                 ranks 5 in Western Europe; ranks 1 in G7

          Greece                48=    Financing environment (29)               bottom in Western Europe

          Hungary               31     Financing environment (21)               ranks 5 in Eastern Europe

          India                 40=    Economics & growth (5)                   ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with Indonesia and ahead of Russia

          Indonesia             40=    Economics & Growth (6)                   ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with India and ahead of Russia

          Ireland               27     Business operating environment (2)       ranks 12 in Western Europe, behind Nordic nations but ahead of UK

          Israel                4      Science & technology (1)                 ranks 1 in Middle East and Africa

          Italy                 38     Financing environment (28)               ranks 14 in Western Europe; bottom in G7

          Japan                 26     Science & technology (6)                 ranks 8 in Asia Pacific; ranks 5 in G7

          Korea                 8      Science & technology (4)                 ranks 3 in Asia Pacific; top in Growth-8

          Luxembourg            24     Business operating environment (7)       ranks 11 in Western Europe




16 Global Dynamism Index 2012
“The United Kingdom is an open, trade-oriented
                                                economy with good global connectivity. However,
                                                despite being home to arguably the largest financial
                                                centre in the world, much more can be done to foster
                                                a financing environment that aids business growth.”
                                                SCOTT BARNES
                                                GRANT THORNTON UK




Country               Rank   Strongest area (rank)                  Regional comparison

    Malaysia          23     Economics & growth (13)                ranks 7 in Asia Pacific

    Mexico            37     Economics & growth (21)                ranks 5 in Latin America; ranks 5 in Growth-8

    Netherlands       22     Business operating environment (4)     ranks 10 in Western Europe

    New Zealand       11     Labour & human capital (5)             ranks 4 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore, Australia and Korea

    Nigeria           48=    Economics & growth (7)                 bottom in Middle East and Africa

    Norway            14     Labour & human capital (8)             ranks 3 in Nordic; ranks 6 in Western Europe

    Philippines       46     Economics & growth (15)                bottom in Asia Pacific

    Poland            28     Financing environment (6)              ranks 3 in Eastern Europe, behind the Slovak Republic and Slovenia

    Portugal          45     Business operating environment (27)    second bottom in Western Europe, ahead of only Greece

    Russia            43=    Economics & growth (10)                last in Eastern Europe and Growth-8

    Singapore         1      Financing environment (1)              top in Asia Pacific

    Slovak Republic   21     Labour & human capital (2)             top in Eastern Europe

    Slovenia          25     Financing environment (10)             ranks 2 in Eastern Europe

    South Africa      43=    Economics & growth (18)                ranks 3 in Middle East and Africa, behind Israel and the UAE

    Spain             39     Business operating environment (21)    ranks 15 in Western Europe, ahead of only Portugal and Greece

    Sweden            3      Business operating environment,        ranks 2 in Western Europe and Nordic behind Finland
                             science & technology (3)

    Switzerland       7      Science & technology (5)               ranks 4 in Western Europe behind Finland, Sweden and Austria

    Taiwan            13     Science & technology (8)               ranks 5 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore and Korea

    Turkey            36     Economics & growth (8)                 ranks 6 in Eastern Europe, ahead of Russia; ranks in 4 in Growth-8

    United Arab       34=    Science & technology (10)              ranks 2 Middle East and Africa, behind Israel
    Emirates

    United Kingdom    32=    Business operating environment (17)    ranks 13 in Western Europe; ranks second last in G7, ahead of Italy

    United States     10     Financing environment (8)              ahead of Canada in North America; ranks 2 in G7, behind Germany

    Uruguay           15     Labour & human capital,                ranks 2 in Latin America, behind Chile but ahead of Brazil
                             economics & growth (3)

    Venezuela         50     Labour & human capital (27)            bottom in Latin America

    Vietnam           32=    Economics & growth (12)                ranks 9 in Asia Pacific, ahead of the Philippines but behind Malaysia




                                                                                                                      Global Dynamism Index 2012 17
Methodology



    Indicators                                              Survey
    Categories and indicators were selected on the basis    The survey of 406 senior executives was conducted
    of expert analysis by the Economist Intelligence        by the Thought Leadership team at the EIU. The
    Unit (EIU). Indicators are drawn from a variety of      sample breakdown is shown below:
    sources, including: the EIU, the World Bank,            • 29% of respondents were CEOs, a further 23%
    Thomson Financial and UNESCO. Please refer to               were in other C-Suite or board roles, and the
    figure 14 for a full list of indicators and sources.        remainder occupied other senior decision-
                                                                making roles
    Data modelling                                          • 49% of businesses represented in the survey had
    Modelling the indicators and categories results in          global annual revenues exceeding $500m
    scores of 0-100 for each country, where 100             • 33% of respondents were based in North
    represents the most dynamic environment and 0               America, followed by Asia-Pacific, Europe
    the least. The overall score, as well as the category       (both 26%), Middle East & Africa (8%) and
    scores, are averages of the normalised scores for           Latin America (7%)
    each of the indicators. Each economy is then ranked     • 19 different sectors were represented in the
    according to these scores. Indicator scores are             survey, led by financial services (14%),
    normalised and then aggregated across categories to         professional services (11%), technology (10%)
    enable a comparison of broader concepts across              and manufacturing (9%).
    countries. Normalisation rebases the raw indicator
    to a common unit so that it can be aggregated.          Weighting
        The indicators where a higher value means a         Survey respondents were asked to assign an
    more favourable environment eg. real GDP growth         importance to each of the indicators for their
    have been normalised on the basis of: x = (x-Min(x))    company, translating to the weight seen in figure
    / (Max(x) – Min(x)), where Min(x) and Max(x) are        14. Each category was weighted evenly.
    respectively the lowest and highest values in the 50
    economies for any given indicator. The normalised       More information
    value is then transformed from 0-1 to a 0-100 score     To find out more about the GDI, go to
    to make it directly comparable with other               www.gti.org/thinking or contact Dominic King
    indicators. This in effect means that the country       (dominic.h.king@uk.gt.com). To access the results
    with the highest raw data value will score 100, and     directly go to www.globaldynamismindex.com.
    the lowest scores 0. The indicators where a higher
    value means a less favourable environment eg.
    unemployment, have been normalised on the basis
    of: x = (x-Max(x)) / (Max(x) – Min(x)).




18 Global Dynamism Index 2012
FIGURE 14: FULL LIST OF INDICATORS


Category                       Indicator                                           Source                              Year        Weight
Business operating             Foreign trade and exchange regimes and controls     EIU Business Environment Rankings   2011        41%
environment                    Policy towards private enterprise and competition   EIU Business Environment Rankings   2011        23%
                               Political stability                                 EIU Business Environment Rankings   2011        13%
                               Legal and regulatory risk                           EIU Risk Briefing                   2011        23%

Science & technology           Broadband subscriber lines per 100 inhabitants      EIU Technology Indicators           2011        10%
                               Growth in broadband subscriber lines                EIU Technology Indicators           2010-11     10%
                               R&D as % of GDP                                     UNESCO                              2008-10     52%
                               Total IT spending growth                            EIU Technology Indicators           2010-11     28%

Labour & human capital         Labour productivity growth                          EIU Country data                    2011        47%
                               Unemployment                                        EIU Country data                    2010-11     20%
                               School life expectancy                              UNESCO                              2008-10     28%
                               % of population under 30                            EIU Demographic Trends              2011        6%

Financing environment          Quality of overall financial regulatory system      EIU Business Environment Rankings   2011        30%
                               Access of firms to medium-term capital              EIU Business Environment Rankings   2011        26%
                               Growth in value of inward M&A deals                 Thomson Financial                   2010-11     3%
                               Value of inward M&A deals                           Thomson Financial                   2011        3%
                               Private sector credit as % of GDP                   World Bank                          2010        18%
                               Inward direct investment growth                     EIU Country data                    2010-11     7%
                               Corporate tax burden                                EIU Country data                    2011        14%

Economics & growth             Real GDP growth                                     EIU Country data                    2010-11     67%
                               Private consumption per head                        EIU Country data                    2010-11     28%
                               Change in $ value of stockmarket index              EIU Country data                    2010-11     5%




                                                                                                                        Global Dynamism Index 2012 19
GDI2012 - Final report
GDI2012 - Final report
GDI2012 - Final report

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GDI2012 - Final report

  • 1. GRANT THORNTON GLOBAL DYNAMISM INDEX Global Dynamism Index 2012: business growth fundamentals
  • 2. Contents 01 Foreword 02 Introducing the GDI 2012 04 The GDI 2012 results 06 Business operating environment 08 Science and technology 10 Labour and human capital 12 Economics and growth 14 Financing environment 16 Country snapshots 18 Methodology 20 GDI participants and contacts
  • 3. Foreword ED NUSBAUM CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER GRANT THORNTON INTERNATIONAL The polarised nature of the recovery In the Grant Thornton Global markets, but instinct may value from the 2008-9 financial crisis and Dynamism Index (GDI), we define stronger competition laws in more recession has had a profound impact dynamism as the changes to the mature markets. The GDI should act on the global economy. Whilst economy which have enabled recovery as a signpost in this process, by economic power was steadily flowing from the 2008-09 economic recession assessing the potential benefits and towards high-growth emerging and are likely to lead to a fast rate of risks of each market for your markets prior to 2008, the weak future growth. The model was organisation. performance of mature economies over developed by the Economist Intelligence Further, the index was designed to the past few years has undoubtedly led Unit (EIU), who analysed 50 economies influence public policy debates. In an to an intensification of this trend. The on 22 indicators of dynamism across five ever more globalised and mobile strength of economies in Asia, Latin categories: business operating world, the ability of economies to America, the Middle East and Africa environment, economics & growth, build on their strengths and mitigate is becoming increasingly integral to science & technology, labour & human weaknesses, has become fundamental the health of the global economy. capital and financing environment. To in terms of attracting investment and Despite recent signs of a validate and weight the indicators, the boosting growth. In a time of slowdown in key economies, EIU then conducted a survey of 406 continuing economic turmoil, the emerging markets look set to dictate senior executives from across the GDI highlights the areas in which the pace at which the global economy globe, in which respondents were governments should market their will expand, at least in the medium- asked to assign an importance to each economies to investors, and in which term. However this does not indicator for their organisation. they need to invest if they are to necessarily mean that they offer the We believe that dynamic attract and grow dynamic businesses. best environments for dynamic organisations need to apply both The results are fascinating and, business growth. Despite poor reason and instinct to decision importantly, show that there are many economic growth prospects, mature making. Deciding which markets your different paths to dynamism. Please markets offer a wide range of qualities organisation should operate in is no explore the data for yourself at and assets that remain central to different. For example, reason may www.globaldynamismindex.com business location decisions. point to the higher-growth emerging Global Dynamism Index 2012 1
  • 4. Introducing the GDI 2012 In 2011, Grant Thornton commissioned the EIU to research the business growth environments of 50 economies chosen on the basis of economic importance, size and regional diversity1. Five areas were identified as holding the key drivers to an economy’s dynamism2: business operating FIGURE 1: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY REGION environment, science and technology, labour and NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) human capital, economics and growth and the financing environment. Subsequently, 406 senior executives, from a broad range of countries and industries, were interviewed to determine which aspects of these attributes they deemed most important for business growth. This allowed for the weighting of each aspect according to its perceived relevance. By analysing the change in each attribute from 2007- 2010, the first iteration of the index, GDI 2011, determined which economies had enjoyed the most robust recoveries from the global financial crisis. Using the previous iteration as a baseline, the current iteration of the index, GDI 2012, looks at the progress of each economy over the past 12 62.9 North America months. Rather than provide a measure of an economy’s success during a period of high economic turbulence, this iteration provides a true illustration of the strength of each economy as a place for dynamic businesses to flourish. 1 2 A full list of participating economies is available on p.20 For the purposes of this research, economic dynamism refers to the 53.8 changes to the economy which have enabled recovery from the 2008-09 Latin America economic recession and are likely to lead to a fast rate of future growth. 3 A full list of the economies in each region/group is available on p.20 2 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 5. Key findings Country-level highlights Regional highlights3 Top economies by aspect of dynamism • Singapore emerges as the most • The Nordic nations are the most • business operating environment: dynamic economy in the world dynamic globally Finland, Ireland, Sweden • Finland, Sweden, Israel and • North America, the G7, Western • science and technology: Israel, Austria complete the top five Europe and Asia Pacific also sit Finland, Sweden • The United States ranks 10, and above the global average • labour and human capital: Argentina, China ranks 20 • Eastern Europe sits just below the Slovak Republic, Uruguay • Chile is the top Latin American global average, followed by Latin • economics and growth: Argentina, country, ranking 12 America and the Growth-8 China, Uruguay • Venezuela, Nigeria and Greece • Middle East and Africa comes • financing environment: Singapore, sit bottom of the index. bottom of the regional ranking. Finland, France. 55.7 66.1 Eastern Europe Nordic 59.2 Western Europe 51.0 Middle East and Africa 59.3 Asia Pacific Global Dynamism Index 2012 3
  • 6. The GDI 2012 results The release of GDI 2012 comes at a time of continuing global economic uncertainty. In Europe, “Singapore is perfectly placed to act as a the severe austerity measures being used to reign in gateway between West and East. Business and huge budget deficits appear to be choking growth prospects. In the United States, growth and job economic growth prospects are supported by creation remain slow whilst the return of polarising an open, transparent financing environment partisan politics is preventing any meaningful and a well-educated workforce.” discussion of how to tackle the growing mountain of government debt. In Japan, anaemic growth rates KON YIN TONG were compounded by the devastating earthquake FOO KON TAN GRANT THORNTON and tsunami of March 2011. Growth prospects are healthier in emerging markets. Indeed, over the next five years the IMF binding them together is that they are regarded as expects emerging market economies to grow at having industrialised, indicating that a dynamic around 7.8% per annum, compared with 3.2% per business environment cannot be built overnight. annum in mature economies. However, these Singapore, a small, open economy which markets are now wrestling with their new status. In industrialised rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s, sits at India, the government is battling corruption the top of the GDI. Singapore appears well-placed scandals, high inflation, a declining rupee and a to act as a gateway for dynamic businesses from marked slowdown in growth. In Brazil, growth mature markets seeking the greater returns on offer tailed off towards the end of 2011, and the in the high-growth markets of Asia. Its economy government is now rapidly cutting back interest comes top for financing environment globally, and rates in a bid to boost industry. sits no lower than 11th in any of the five categories. Turkey is currently running a current account Two Scandinavian countries come next, with deficit of more than 10%, which is being financed Finland slightly ahead of Sweden. The eurozone with potentially dangerous inflows of hot money4 crisis has clearly hurt the economies of both from abroad. Even in China, the target growth rate nations, but the GDI suggests that longer term has been cut and the full extent of the level of the bad growth fundamentals are robust. Both economies debt taken on by local government as part of the large sit in the top three for both business operating 2008 stimulus programme has yet to be determined. environment and science and technology, with The ten economies which sit at the top of the Finland behind only Singapore in terms of its GDI are varied, showing that there are many paths financing environment. to dynamism. There are three economies from Asia Korea is the highest placed member of the Pacific – Australia, Singapore and Korea; a further Growth-8, a grouping of the largest high-growth five are from Europe – Austria, Germany, Finland, markets. However, China is the only other member Sweden and Switzerland; the United States from of this group which sits in the top half of the index. North America and Israel from the Middle East. Indeed India, Indonesia and Russia sit in the 4 ‘Hot money’ refers to These ten economies represent a diverse set of bottom ten, emphasising that dynamism is far more speculative capital flows that can move very quickly economic and political conditions but one thing than just another measure of growth. in and out of markets 4 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 7. FIGURE 2: OVERALL DYNAMISM BY COUNTRY NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Singapore 72.1 Finland 70.5 Sweden 69.6 Israel 69.3 Austria 66.1 Australia 65.6 Switzerland 65.1 Korea 64.9 Germany 64.8 United States 64.1 New Zealand 63.9 Chile 63.8 Taiwan 63.7 Norway 62.6 Uruguay 62.5 France 62.2 Denmark 61.9 Canada 61.7 Belgium 61.5 China 61.4 Slovak Republic 59.8 Netherlands 59.5 Malaysia 58.9 Luxembourg 58.4 Slovenia 57.9 Japan 57.5 Ireland 57.3 Poland 57.2 Czech Republic 55.7 Brazil 55.1 Hungary 54.7 United Kingdom 54.5 Vietnam 54.5 Argentina 54.3 UAE 54.3 Turkey 54.2 Mexico 53.2 Italy 52.3 Spain 51.0 India 50.7 Indonesia 50.7 Colombia 50.2 Russia 50.0 South Africa 50.0 Portugal 49.2 Philippines 47.6 Egypt 41.2 Greece 40.2 Nigeria 40.2 Venezuela 37.4 Global Dynamism Index 2012 5
  • 8. Business operating environment An economy’s business operating environment – trade laws, regulation, “Chile is rapidly becoming more business- legal and political institutions – friendly. In recent years, the government has provides the foundations for business growth. A poor operating taken robust measures to cut the costs and time environment, that fails to offer key involved in starting a business.” safeguards and security, represents a higher risk for business investment. ALFONSO IBAÑEZ GRANT THORNTON CHILE Conversely, those economies with open trade policies and clearly defined competition and legal systems offer a much better platform for dynamic businesses. Business leaders surveyed identified Finland, Ireland, Sweden, the Whilst all the economies of the G7 foreign trade and exchange regimes and Netherlands and Denmark are all very sit in the top 30 on this measure, all controls as the most important aspect open economies with strong, those of the Growth-8 sit in the bottom of an economy’s business operating transparent competition and regulatory 20, suggesting that the business environment, followed by policy systems. Of the five, Ireland has operating environments in these high towards enterprise and competition and suffered most from the eurozone crisis, growth markets remain a key area for legal & regulatory risk. Political but it has managed to hang on to its development. The recent expropriation stability was assigned a lesser low corporation taxes making it an by Argentina of YPF, an oil company importance. attractive location for business formerly run by Spanish firm Repsol, It can take economies many years investment. highlights the risks businesses can face to develop a sound business operating when investing in markets with environment so it is unsurprising to see different regulatory frameworks. the top ten places taken by mature economies. Indeed the top five places are all held by European nations, showing the underlying strength of economies in the region despite the current lack of growth. 5 ‘Ease of doing business index 2012’ – World Bank 6 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 9. FIGURE 3A: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING FIGURE 3B: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING ENVIRONMENT: TOP 10 ENVIRONMENT: BOTTOM 10 NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Pilippines Finland 94 Chin Irela a5 nd 9 Vie 62.6 tna 9.6 .2 Sw 3.4 Eg m ed yp 59 en t5 9. .3 92 Ne 1 the .8 rla Indo nd nes s9 ia 5 5.7 1. Den 5 India 54.7 mar k9 1.4 .0 Russia 51 Russia and India, two economies Canada 9 4 which suffer from high levels of 1.2 48. .7 a 35 entin .9 corruption, sit in the bottom five Arg ela 33 zu on this measure. In India, the ne Ve ia 0.7 Australia 9 er Nig reversal of the decision to allow a foreign group to buy up to 51% of 0.7 rg 9 embou local retail companies shows how Lux .4 90 closed certain sectors are. China, nd ala where questions are raised around Ze w Ne .1 competition due to the volume and 90 ia dominance of state-owned enterprises, str Au also has one of the least dynamic business operating environments. Chile, where huge strides have been made over recent years in cutting the procedures, costs and days taken to FIGURE 4: DYNAMISM OF BUSINESS OPERATING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGION NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) start a business5, is the highest ranking emerging market, ranking 14 globally, level with Switzerland and above the UK, France and Spain. Troubled Greece ranks 35, below Korea, Mexico and Uruguay. 91.4 90.4 Nordic North America 86.8 Western Europe 85.5 75.8 G7 All countries 72.9 Asia Pacific 72.9 63.9 Latin America 62.3 60.3 Eastern Europe Growth – 8 Middle East and Africa Global Dynamism Index 2012 7
  • 10. Science and technology Science and technology is a measure of the ability of an economy’s “Entrepreneurship is strong in Israel, especially infrastructure to support the growth in hi-tech industries. The economy not only of dynamic businesses. The rise of the internet has steadily eroded the has the largest number of biotech and overall geographical and economic barriers to start-ups in the world per capita, but also the competition, but its ever-increasing third most NASDAQ-listed companies.” importance to the operations of dynamic businesses means poor ILANIT HALPERIN connectivity can also hold economies GRANT THORNTON ISRAEL back. Similarly, significant investment in research and development (R&D) is likely to boost the growth prospects of an economy both by creating new entrepreneurs and attracting businesses. Israel offers the most dynamic In the Nordic region, which is The top ten economies in the GDI science and technology environment by synonymous with innovations such as on this measure come from all over the some distance, due principally to the the mobile telephone, there is also a world. Their economies are of different large proportion of GDP which is long tradition of investing heavily in sizes and are at different stages of spent on R&D (4.3%) – the aspect of R&D, both through businesses and development. However, they share a science and technology business leaders higher education institutions. Finland, common drive to be ahead of the identified as the most important. In the Sweden and Denmark all score well in technological curve. 1990s, Israel welcomed more than a terms of the proportion of GDP million immigrants from the former accounted for by R&D, as well as on Soviet Union into the country, many of the quality of their IT infrastructure. them highly qualified scientists and Elsewhere in Europe, Germany, which engineers. The government capitalised is home to some of the most advanced on this influx of highly-skilled labour engineering firms in the world, and by creating a number of tax incentives Switzerland, both also have much to for venture capital funds and business offer dynamic businesses in this area. incubator programmes, to develop its hi-tech industry. 8 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 11. FIGURE 5A: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: FIGURE 5B: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: TOP 10 BOTTOM 10 NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Argentina Israel 73.0 Pola Ph ilip 23.2 nd 2 Finla pin es 0.9 nd 6 Ch Sw 20 ile ed .2 5.8 Colu 19 en mbia .3 Ko 64 rea 18. .9 61 7 .0 Nigeria 17 Swit .9 zerla nd 5 .5 9.0 Greece 17 4 Japan 58 .8 16. sia one 5. 7 .3 Korea is the highest ranking Asian Ind t1 10 56.4 nation in this area, ahead of Japan and Denmark yp Eg ela zu 3.9 an 5 ne Taiwan in the top ten. The structure of Taiw 3. 5 Ve business in Korea is unusual in that the y5 an rm .2 top ten businesses – the Chaebol – have Ge 53 E UA around 55% of market capitalisation. These firms, such as Samsung and Hyundai, have large, vertically- integrated supply chains which help them stay at the forefront of technological innovation. Proportionately, Japan has the fourth largest spend on R&D of the 50 FIGURE 6: DYNAMISM OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: BY REGION NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) economies in the GDI, although clearly this has failed to translate into economic growth in recent years. Whilst IT infrastructure is generally better in mature markets, many 57.3 46.7 emerging markets are spending Nordic North America 45.8 44.0 aggressively to close the gap. The G7 Western Europe United Arab Emirates, for example, increased spending in this area by more 39.5 than 70% between 2010 and 2011, Asia Pacific 37.4 ahead of Uruguay (31%), China (23%) All countries 37.3 Middle East and and Nigeria (22%). Similarly, the Africa greatest increases in broadband 31.6 29.2 subscribers in 2011 were observed in Growth – 8 23.5 Eastern Europe Egypt, the Philippines and, again, Latin America Uruguay. Global Dynamism Index 2012 9
  • 12. Labour and human capital Without the right workers to drive a vision forward, an entrepreneur will “In comparison, United States business growth not be able to achieve scalability in his fundamentals are solid. A strong and stable legal or her businesses. The best workers not only increase productivity, but can system, access to capital, credit, and a highly also save a business time and money. skilled, diverse workforce are all key drivers Some of the most dynamic companies of business location decisions.” in the world go to great lengths to ensure they get the best people, and it STEPHEN CHIPMAN works both ways in that the best people GRANT THORNTON US will often be attracted by the most dynamic companies. When surveyed, business leaders assigned the greatest weighting to the reported growth in labour productivity Argentina scores highest for the strongest school life expectancy rates – output per worker. This is followed dynamism of its labour and human in the survey, but experienced mush by school life expectancy (how long the capital, driven by labour productivity slower labour productivity growth in average child spends in education) and growth of 6.3% in 2011. School life 2011. Korea’s position at sixth is the unemployment rate. The expectancy in Argentina of 16.1 years is supported by a low unemployment rate proportion of the population under also above economies such as Canada, (3.4%) and high school life expectancy. 30 was assigned the lowest weight. Germany and Sweden. Labour The highest ranking member of the On the whole, the economies of productivity growth in the Slovak G7 on this measure is Germany at 22. emerging markets score better on this Republic was even more impressive in Many mature market economies are measure that those in mature markets, 2011 (10.3%) helping its economy into already dealing with unfavourable largely because growth in labour second place. Another Latin American demographics with ageing populations productivity favours emerging markets economy, Uruguay, sits in third thanks increasing dependency ratios and as they start from a lower base. Latin to strong labour productivity growth putting pressure on resources. Three America, Asia Pacific, the Growth-8 and a low unemployment rate. such economies – Italy, Japan and and Eastern Europe all score highly in Six of the remaining seven Germany – sit bottom of the rankings this area, although the Nordic region economies in the top ten are from the for the proportion of their population again leads the way. Asia Pacific region. China experienced under 30. And, whilst the G7 the second fastest labour productivity economies all find themselves in the growth (8.3%) in 2011, but is held top 30 for school life expectancy, they back by a school life expectancy in are also all in the bottom 30 in terms the bottom five globally. Conversely, of labour productivity growth rates New Zealand and Australia have the in 2011. 10 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 13. FIGURE 7A: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: FIGURE 7B: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: TOP 10 BOTTOM 10 NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Argentina Portugal 5 Colo Slov mbia Hu ak R ng 72.5 Ur 1.0 ary Sp epu 50. ug ain 50 ua 47 blic 6 Ch y .1 Phil .4 69 ina 72. 67 ippin .0 .4 es 4 4 7.3 New Greece 46 Zea .6 land 65. 7.3 6 Nigeria 3 Korea 64 0 .1 35. pt Egy .6 34 .4 3.9 Australia 6 ica 32 Afr 4 uth E 62. UA way So Nor .1 62 ia es on .6 Ind 61 an iw Ta FIGURE 8: DYNAMISM OF LABOUR & HUMAN CAPITAL: BY REGION NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Excluding Israel, which ranks 18, the economies of the Middle East and Africa score poorly on this measure, 60.2 59.5 with the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria filling the Nordic 59.8 Asia Pacific Latin America last four places. More than half of their populations are under 30, but school life expectancy averages below 14 years in each and unemployment rates – especially in South Africa and Nigeria 58.5 – are high. The key danger in these Growth – 8 economies is that if young people lack the necessary training or employment 56.4 Eastern Europe opportunities, then the benefits of a demographic transition – a boost to growth prospects as the number of 56.0 North America workers increases relative to dependants (children and the retired) 55.7 – will be lost. All countries 55.8 Western Europe 54.6 39.6 G7 Middle East and Africa Global Dynamism Index 2012 11
  • 14. Economics and growth Even before the global financial crisis, governments and business leaders in “Not only is China growing rapidly, but mature markets were talking up the it is also developing. Increases in labour importance of having a presence in the faster growing emerging markets. As productivity and domestic demand point to governments and consumers deleverage a successful rebalancing of the economy.” in mature markets, and growth rates continue to disappoint, these calls have XU HUA GRANT THORNTON CHINA been growing louder. For dynamic businesses, faster growing markets offer the consumer, business and public sector demand to match their ambition. How fast an economy is expanding – growth in real included in the GDI, whilst consumer Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, the GDP – is identified as the key aspect of demand expanded by 23% over the economies of India (5) and Indonesia this area of dynamism according to same period, the highest of all 50 (6) also score well in this category. In business leaders. How fast consumer economies. However, recent effort to India, expansion is expected to slow in demand is growing is also deemed reign in wage growth, cut subsidies and 2012 in the face of strong global important, with the change in the value prop up the trade balance are likely to economic headwinds and persistently of the stock market assigned a lower result in growth rates dropping below high inflation which is constraining weighting. 4% over the next five years. private consumption. Indonesia’s Unsurprisingly given events since Argentina leads a strong showing growth rate will continue to be 2008, emerging markets are well ahead from Latin America, with Uruguay (3), underpinned by strong growth in of mature markets on this measure. The Chile (4) and Colombia (10) all in the top exports and consumer demand. Growth-8 group of countries rank ten. The two regional heavyweights, Brazil The highest ranking mature ahead of Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Mexico, rank 20 and 21 respectively. economy on this measure is Sweden Middle East & Africa and Eastern The rising global superpower, China (14), where growth in GDP and Europe. With an end to its sovereign ranks second on this measure of consumer demand grew steadily in 2011 debt crisis still seemingly a long way dynamism. Its economy posted growth despite the regional slowdown. off, Western Europe sits bottom of the of over 9% in 2011 whilst consumer Germany (25) ranks highest of the G7 regional ranking. demand expanded by 21%. In an effort nations; its economy expanded by 3% Argentina ranks top globally in to cut reliance on exports and in 2011, well ahead of any other terms of the dynamism of its economic investment in favour of domestic eurozone nation, and consumer demand and growth environment. Its economy consumption, China’s economic growth increased by 9%. The Canadian expanded by 9% in 2011, behind only rate target has been dropped from the economy escaped relatively unscathed that of China of the 50 economies 8.0% in place since 2005, to 7.5%. from the financial crisis and ranks 31, ahead of the United States (38). 12 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 15. FIGURE 9A: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: FIGURE 9B: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: TOP 10 BOTTOM 10 NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) UK 52.1 Argentina Den Chin mar Sp a9 ain k5 95.6 Ve 4.6 50 ne 2.0 zu .3 ela Ur Irela 49 ug nd 4 .7 ua 9.5 y Ch 82 ile Italy 49.2 .3 80 .6 6.8 Slovenia 4 India 4 80. 0 an 45. Jap Of the bottom ten economies, .4 .5 39 13 seven are from Western Europe. At Indonesia al ce 79.8 g rtu ee the bottom, Greece and Portugal, Po Gr which have received huge bailouts .4 Nigeria 79 but remain at the eye of the eurozone storm, both saw their economies 8.0 ey 7 Turk .3 contract in 2011. Forecasts for 2012 75 re po .8 point to further drops in output as ga 73 Sin bia austerity measures bite. Other eurozone 8 73. lom economies which look set to contract Co sia Rus this year, as new governments force through massive fiscal adjustments – namely Italy (46), Ireland (45) and Spain (43) – also rank well down on this measure. The economies of Japan (48) – FIGURE 10: DYNAMISM OF ECONOMICS & GROWTH: BY REGION NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) where GDP contracted by 0.9% in 2011 following the devastating earthquake and tsunami – and Venezuela (44) – where consumer 75.4 demand fell by 22% as rampant inflation cut into spending power – Growth – 8 73.4 69.8 also offer less opportunity to dynamic Latin America Asia Pacific businesses on this measure. 65.2 Middle East and 62.7 62.6 Africa Eastern Europe All countries 60.7 Nordic 55.7 53.4 North America G7 53.0 Western Europe Global Dynamism Index 2012 13
  • 16. Financing environment Ambitious growth plans are important for dynamic organisations, but without “Despite the slowdown in the eurozone, the finance to bring them to life, they business growth fundamentals in Finland will have little impact on profitability. The global financial crisis that broke remain robust. Investment in R&D remains in 2008 clearly showed that a major high whilst open trade policies and strong contraction in liquidity will result in institutions provide a low risk environment a major contraction in output. The for investment.” billions of euros provided by the European Central Bank to the regions’ JOAKIM REHN banks, which (at least) delayed regional GRANT THORNTON FINLAND meltdown, provide further evidence of the importance of finance to growth. Dynamic organisations need to invest to stay ahead of the curve, and therefore require the financing environment in which they operate to Mature economies tend to perform Finland and France both rank equal first be as agile and fast-moving as they are. more strongly than emerging with Singapore in terms of levels of Business leaders identified a sound economies on this measure. North private sector credit, and sit joint fourth financial regulatory system as the most America emerges as having the best in the rankings for the quality of their important aspect of an economy’s financing environment, followed by financial regulatory systems and access financing environment. This is followed the Nordic region, the G7 and Western to medium-term capital. by measures of credit availability – Europe. Interestingly, the Growth-8 Another European country, namely access to medium-term capital sits at the bottom of the regional Austria, sits fourth on this measure but and the level of private sector credit (as rankings, highlighting it as a key area the overall regional score is dragged a proportion of GDP) – the prevailing of development. down by the UK, Portugal, Spain and corporate tax rate and growth in At the country-level, Singapore Ireland which all sit in the bottom 15. inward direct investment. Growth in, has the most dynamic financing Indeed, despite London being arguably and the value of, inward M&A deals environment, well ahead of second the financial capital of the world, the were given lower weightings. placed Finland and third placed France. UK sits above only Indonesia, Singapore ranks highest in terms of the Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria and quality of its financial regulatory system, Argentina in terms of the dynamism the lightness of its corporate tax burden of its financial environment. and its high level of private sector credit. 14 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 17. FIGURE 11A: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: FIGURE 11B: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: TOP 10 BOTTOM 10 NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) Portugal 4 Singapore Ph Egy ilip pin pt 4 es Ind Finla ia 3.3 40 3.4 40 .1 82.2 nd 7 .5 Fra UK 39. nc 2.3 9 e7 Au Indonesia 1. str 39.2 ia 8 71 .4 34.5 Chil Venezuela e7 9 1.4 32. sia .6 Rus 32 .6 Poland 70 ia 31 In North America, both the .4 er Nig na United States (8) and Canada (13) nti d 69.8 ge perform strongly. Whilst the corporate New Zealan Ar 5 tax burden in each is heavier than 69. tes ed Sta average, their economies rank joint Unit 3 first for access to medium-term 8. l6 .6 rae 67 capital. Moreover Canada ranks Is nia ve third for the quality of its financial Slo regulatory system and the US ranks first for both the value of inward M&A deals and for private sector credit. Chile is the highest placed emerging market, ranking 4= overall on this FIGURE 12: DYNAMISM OF FINANCING ENVIRONMENT: BY REGION NORMALISED SCORE (MAX=100, MIN=0) measure. It ranks joint first for private sector credit and joint fourth for both the quality of its financial regulatory systems and access to medium term 65.7 61.1 capital. With its low corporate tax burden and sound financial regulatory North America Nordic 58.6 G7 system, Poland is the second highest ranked emerging market. Of the 57.1 Growth-8 economies, Korea ranks Eastern Europe highest (18) ahead of Brazil (24), with 56.5 55.0 India (43) and Russia (48) near the Western Europe All countries bottom. 54.8 52.6 Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa 48.4 Latin America 47.4 Growth – 8 Global Dynamism Index 2012 15
  • 18. Country snapshots FIGURE 13: GDI – COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS Country Rank Strongest area (rank) Regional comparison Argentina 34= Economics & growth, labour & human ranks 4 in Latin America, behind Chile, Uruguay and Brazil capital (1) Australia 6 Business operating environment, labour ranks 2 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore & human capital (7) Austria 5 Financing environment (4) ranks 3 in Europe, behind Finland and Sweden Belgium 19 Business operating environment (14) ranks 9 in Europe, ahead of the Netherlands and Luxembourg Brazil 30 Economics & growth (20) ranks 3 in Latin America; ranks 3 in Growth-8 behind Korea and China Canada 18 Business operating environment (6) ranks 4 in G7 behind United States, Germany and France Chile 12 Financing environment, economics top in Latin America & growth (4) China 20 Economics & growth (2) ranks 2 in Growth-8 behind Korea; ranks 6 in Asia Pacific Colombia 42 Economics & growth (10) ranks 6 in Latin America, ahead of only Venezuela Czech Republic 29 Business operating environment (22) ranks 4 Eastern Europe, behind Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Poland Denmark 17 Business operating environment (5) ranks last of 4 Nordic nations; ranks 8 in Western Europe Egypt 47 Economics & Growth (39) ranks 4 in Middle East & Africa, behind Israel, UAE and South Africa Finland 2 Business operating environment (1) top in Western Europe France 16 Financing environment (3) ranks 7 in Western Europe, behind Germany but ahead of UK ranks 3 in G7 Germany 16 Science & technology (9) ranks 5 in Western Europe; ranks 1 in G7 Greece 48= Financing environment (29) bottom in Western Europe Hungary 31 Financing environment (21) ranks 5 in Eastern Europe India 40= Economics & growth (5) ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with Indonesia and ahead of Russia Indonesia 40= Economics & Growth (6) ranks 10 in Asia Pacific; 6 in Growth-8, level with India and ahead of Russia Ireland 27 Business operating environment (2) ranks 12 in Western Europe, behind Nordic nations but ahead of UK Israel 4 Science & technology (1) ranks 1 in Middle East and Africa Italy 38 Financing environment (28) ranks 14 in Western Europe; bottom in G7 Japan 26 Science & technology (6) ranks 8 in Asia Pacific; ranks 5 in G7 Korea 8 Science & technology (4) ranks 3 in Asia Pacific; top in Growth-8 Luxembourg 24 Business operating environment (7) ranks 11 in Western Europe 16 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 19. “The United Kingdom is an open, trade-oriented economy with good global connectivity. However, despite being home to arguably the largest financial centre in the world, much more can be done to foster a financing environment that aids business growth.” SCOTT BARNES GRANT THORNTON UK Country Rank Strongest area (rank) Regional comparison Malaysia 23 Economics & growth (13) ranks 7 in Asia Pacific Mexico 37 Economics & growth (21) ranks 5 in Latin America; ranks 5 in Growth-8 Netherlands 22 Business operating environment (4) ranks 10 in Western Europe New Zealand 11 Labour & human capital (5) ranks 4 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore, Australia and Korea Nigeria 48= Economics & growth (7) bottom in Middle East and Africa Norway 14 Labour & human capital (8) ranks 3 in Nordic; ranks 6 in Western Europe Philippines 46 Economics & growth (15) bottom in Asia Pacific Poland 28 Financing environment (6) ranks 3 in Eastern Europe, behind the Slovak Republic and Slovenia Portugal 45 Business operating environment (27) second bottom in Western Europe, ahead of only Greece Russia 43= Economics & growth (10) last in Eastern Europe and Growth-8 Singapore 1 Financing environment (1) top in Asia Pacific Slovak Republic 21 Labour & human capital (2) top in Eastern Europe Slovenia 25 Financing environment (10) ranks 2 in Eastern Europe South Africa 43= Economics & growth (18) ranks 3 in Middle East and Africa, behind Israel and the UAE Spain 39 Business operating environment (21) ranks 15 in Western Europe, ahead of only Portugal and Greece Sweden 3 Business operating environment, ranks 2 in Western Europe and Nordic behind Finland science & technology (3) Switzerland 7 Science & technology (5) ranks 4 in Western Europe behind Finland, Sweden and Austria Taiwan 13 Science & technology (8) ranks 5 in Asia Pacific, behind Singapore and Korea Turkey 36 Economics & growth (8) ranks 6 in Eastern Europe, ahead of Russia; ranks in 4 in Growth-8 United Arab 34= Science & technology (10) ranks 2 Middle East and Africa, behind Israel Emirates United Kingdom 32= Business operating environment (17) ranks 13 in Western Europe; ranks second last in G7, ahead of Italy United States 10 Financing environment (8) ahead of Canada in North America; ranks 2 in G7, behind Germany Uruguay 15 Labour & human capital, ranks 2 in Latin America, behind Chile but ahead of Brazil economics & growth (3) Venezuela 50 Labour & human capital (27) bottom in Latin America Vietnam 32= Economics & growth (12) ranks 9 in Asia Pacific, ahead of the Philippines but behind Malaysia Global Dynamism Index 2012 17
  • 20. Methodology Indicators Survey Categories and indicators were selected on the basis The survey of 406 senior executives was conducted of expert analysis by the Economist Intelligence by the Thought Leadership team at the EIU. The Unit (EIU). Indicators are drawn from a variety of sample breakdown is shown below: sources, including: the EIU, the World Bank, • 29% of respondents were CEOs, a further 23% Thomson Financial and UNESCO. Please refer to were in other C-Suite or board roles, and the figure 14 for a full list of indicators and sources. remainder occupied other senior decision- making roles Data modelling • 49% of businesses represented in the survey had Modelling the indicators and categories results in global annual revenues exceeding $500m scores of 0-100 for each country, where 100 • 33% of respondents were based in North represents the most dynamic environment and 0 America, followed by Asia-Pacific, Europe the least. The overall score, as well as the category (both 26%), Middle East & Africa (8%) and scores, are averages of the normalised scores for Latin America (7%) each of the indicators. Each economy is then ranked • 19 different sectors were represented in the according to these scores. Indicator scores are survey, led by financial services (14%), normalised and then aggregated across categories to professional services (11%), technology (10%) enable a comparison of broader concepts across and manufacturing (9%). countries. Normalisation rebases the raw indicator to a common unit so that it can be aggregated. Weighting The indicators where a higher value means a Survey respondents were asked to assign an more favourable environment eg. real GDP growth importance to each of the indicators for their have been normalised on the basis of: x = (x-Min(x)) company, translating to the weight seen in figure / (Max(x) – Min(x)), where Min(x) and Max(x) are 14. Each category was weighted evenly. respectively the lowest and highest values in the 50 economies for any given indicator. The normalised More information value is then transformed from 0-1 to a 0-100 score To find out more about the GDI, go to to make it directly comparable with other www.gti.org/thinking or contact Dominic King indicators. This in effect means that the country (dominic.h.king@uk.gt.com). To access the results with the highest raw data value will score 100, and directly go to www.globaldynamismindex.com. the lowest scores 0. The indicators where a higher value means a less favourable environment eg. unemployment, have been normalised on the basis of: x = (x-Max(x)) / (Max(x) – Min(x)). 18 Global Dynamism Index 2012
  • 21. FIGURE 14: FULL LIST OF INDICATORS Category Indicator Source Year Weight Business operating Foreign trade and exchange regimes and controls EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 41% environment Policy towards private enterprise and competition EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 23% Political stability EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 13% Legal and regulatory risk EIU Risk Briefing 2011 23% Science & technology Broadband subscriber lines per 100 inhabitants EIU Technology Indicators 2011 10% Growth in broadband subscriber lines EIU Technology Indicators 2010-11 10% R&D as % of GDP UNESCO 2008-10 52% Total IT spending growth EIU Technology Indicators 2010-11 28% Labour & human capital Labour productivity growth EIU Country data 2011 47% Unemployment EIU Country data 2010-11 20% School life expectancy UNESCO 2008-10 28% % of population under 30 EIU Demographic Trends 2011 6% Financing environment Quality of overall financial regulatory system EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 30% Access of firms to medium-term capital EIU Business Environment Rankings 2011 26% Growth in value of inward M&A deals Thomson Financial 2010-11 3% Value of inward M&A deals Thomson Financial 2011 3% Private sector credit as % of GDP World Bank 2010 18% Inward direct investment growth EIU Country data 2010-11 7% Corporate tax burden EIU Country data 2011 14% Economics & growth Real GDP growth EIU Country data 2010-11 67% Private consumption per head EIU Country data 2010-11 28% Change in $ value of stockmarket index EIU Country data 2010-11 5% Global Dynamism Index 2012 19