Talk at the joint British Cartographic Society / Society of Cartographers Conference, York, September 10th 2015

1. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Mapping
the
UK
elec/on(s)
of
2015
-­‐
what
was
done
and
did
it
work?
Danny
Dorling,
Oxford
University
This
talk
is
on
the
theme
I
have
looked
at
now
for
almost
30
years:
cartograms
and
electoral
mapping.
However,
in
this
talk
I
will
look
at
how
the
UK
media
chose
to
portray
the
general
elec/on
of
May
7th
2015
and,
in
the
event
of
a
hung
and
irreconcilable
parliament,
or
failing
minority
government,
any
subsequent
general
elec/on.
Newspapers,
TV,
blogs,
magazines
and
other
media
are
likely
to
approach
the
mapping
of
this
elec/on
in
new
and
novel
ways.
Apart
from
anything
else
they
now
need
to
worry
about
a
far
wider
range
of
poli/cal
colours
on
the
maps.
The
cons/tuencies
being
the
same
as
before
should
help
in
the
mapping
of
change
over
/me,
if
any
is
aTempted.
Interac/ve
mapping
should
also
be
much
improved
on
previous
years,
but
maybe
not?
The
talk
ends
with
some
sugges/ons
for
the
future
and
will
contain
only
one
reference
to
the
"electoral
tetrahedron"
although
one
day
before
I
die
I
hope
to
see
it
on
TV.
I
invented
it
in
the
1980s
to
cope
with
the
SNP
becoming
a
significant
party.
I
was
just
a
liTle
before
my
/me
J
and
there
is
to
be
a
second
(but
not
general)
elec3on
of
2015…..
…
which
just
might
need
that
tetrahedron…

2. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Some
lovely
mapping
before
the
elec/on
This
map
appeared
in
the
Guardian
in
April
2015.
I
guess
hand-­‐drawn.
Using
poll
data
it
suggested
Liberals
could
s/ll
win
in
the
SW
of
England
hTp://www.theguardian.com/poli/cs/ng-­‐
interac/ve/
2015/
apr/20/elec/on-­‐2015-­‐cons/tuency-­‐map

3. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
BBC
put
anima/ons
over
Lancashire

4. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Popula/on
propor/onal
to
volume?

5. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Sadly
the
flying
graphics
fell
out
of
favour

6. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
James
Jacob
Gilchrist
Berry
held
#13

7. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together

8. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
Telegraph
were
quick
but
crude
with
the
actual
result
Oxford
East
gains
neighbour…

9. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Actual
Result
April
Poll

10. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
Observer
was
garish
But
the
polls
were
not
that
far
out
when
it
came
to
the
map

11. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Ben
Hennig
started
mapping
while
on
holiday
(Lancashire
again)

12. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
Guardian
started
mapping
vote
shares.
Oxford
East
is
a
rabbit?

13. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Ben
mapping
from
the
air
Using
an
algorithm
first
generated
to
show
US
elec/on
maps
and
used
by
Mark
Newman
and
colleagues

14. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together

15. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
US
elec/on
winners
(democrat
=
blue,
republican
=
red)

16. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Or
show
vote
shares
with
many
shades
of
purple

17. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
To
end
with…
Ben’s
maps:
to
begin
–
who
came
2nd?
A
quick
key
map…

18. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
UK
is
looking
more
like
the
USA.
Just
25%
of
the
electorate
can
get
a
majority.

19. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
But
unlike
the
US
we
no
longer
have
two
major
par/es
even
though
the
third
was
decimated

20. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Compare
the
Liberals
To
UKIP.
Libs
do
well
near
to
where
UKIP
poll
low

21. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
SNP
have
most
support
in
ci/es.
Plaid
is
more
rural

22. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The
cartograms
of
change
may
tell
you
most
you
need
to
know.
Slowly
spa/al
divisions
are
splilng
the
UK
apart
ever
wider…

23. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
Poverty
and
wealth
remain
the
best
predictors
of
who
wins
where…

24. BCS - SoC Conference 2015 Mapping Together
The Segregation Index of Conservative voters in Britain*, 1885–2015
Election Concentration
1885 7.11%
1886 5.53%
1892 5.81%
1895 4.70%
1900 4.39%
1906 6.67%
1910 Dec 6.24%
1910 Jan 7.91%
1918 19.30%
1922 14.44%
1923 11.57%
1924 10.62%
1929 9.24%
1931 9.23%
1935 9.65%
1945 7.21%
1950 6.74%
1951 6.77%
1955 6.93%
1959 6.24%
1964 6.51%
1966 7.69%
1970 8.04%
1974 Feb 8.01%
1974 Oct 10.72%
1979 9.17%
1983 10.59%
1987 11.84%
1992 11.88%
1997 13.94%
2001 15.05%
2005 15.69%
2010
2015
16.40%
19.89%
Election Concentration
*Northern Irish seats are not included.
0%
6%
8%
12%
18%
20%
4%
2%
10%
16%
14%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Drawn initially in Dorling, D. (2006) ’Class alignment renewal’: The Journal of Labour
Politics, vol 41, no 1, p 849, showing the spatial segregation index. Updated in Dorling, D.
(2013) Crises and turning points: the pivots of history, Renewal, 21, 4, pp11-20.
Note: The statistic being measured is the segregation index of Conservative votes across all
British seats at each general election. The proportion is the minimum number of voters who
would have to be moved across constituency boundaries to ensure that within each
parliamentary constituency the Conservatives received exactly the same share of the vote.
Figure 13: Concentration of Conservative votes, British general
elections, 1918–2015Conclusion
With
the
first
elec/on
of
2015
one
simple
graph
might
tell
us
more
-­‐à
The
second
elec/on
result
is
on
September
12th
It
needs
a
tetrahedron!
Thank
you!